Learning Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes from Longitudinal Data.

Studies often report estimates of the average treatment effect (ATE). While the ATE summarizes the effect of a treatment on average, it does not provide any information about the effect of treatment within any individual. A treatment strategy that uses an individual's information to tailor treatment to maximize benefit is known as an optimal dynamic treatment rule (ODTR). Treatment, however, is typically not limited to a single point in time; consequently, learning an optimal rule for a time-varying treatment may involve not just learning the extent to which the comparative treatments' benefits vary across the characteristics of individuals, but also learning the extent to which the comparative treatments' benefits vary as relevant circumstances evolve within an individual. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for estimating ODTR from longitudinal observational and clinical trial data for applied researchers. We describe an approach that uses a doubly-robust unbiased transformation of the conditional average treatment effect. We then learn a time-varying ODTR for when to increase buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX) dose to minimize return-to-regular-opioid-use among patients with opioid use disorder. Our analysis highlights the utility of ODTRs in the context of sequential decision making: the learned ODTR outperforms a clinically defined strategy.

Independent and joint contributions of physical disability and chronic pain to incident opioid use disorder and opioid overdose among Medicaid patients.

BACKGROUND: Chronic pain has been extensively explored as a risk factor for opioid misuse, resulting in increased focus on opioid prescribing practices for individuals with such conditions. Physical disability sometimes co-occurs with chronic pain but may also represent an independent risk factor for opioid misuse. However, previous research has not disentangled whether disability contributes to risk independent of chronic pain. METHODS: Here, we estimate the independent and joint adjusted associations between having a physical disability and co-occurring chronic pain condition at time of Medicaid enrollment on subsequent 18-month risk of incident opioid use disorder (OUD) and non-fatal, unintentional opioid overdose among non-elderly, adult Medicaid beneficiaries (2016-2019). RESULTS: We find robust evidence that having a physical disability approximately doubles the risk of incident OUD or opioid overdose, and physical disability co-occurring with chronic pain increases the risks approximately sixfold as compared to having neither chronic pain nor disability. In absolute numbers, those with neither a physical disability nor chronic pain condition have a 1.8% adjusted risk of incident OUD over 18 months of follow-up, those with physical disability alone have an 2.9% incident risk, those with chronic pain alone have a 3.6% incident risk, and those with co-occurring physical disability and chronic pain have a 11.1% incident risk. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that those with a physical disability should receive increased attention from the medical and healthcare communities to reduce their risk of opioid misuse and attendant negative outcomes.

Causal survival analysis under competing risks using longitudinal modified treatment policies.

Longitudinal modified treatment policies (LMTP) have been recently developed as a novel method to define and estimate causal parameters that depend on the natural value of treatment. LMTPs represent an important advancement in causal inference for longitudinal studies as they allow the non-parametric definition and estimation of the joint effect of multiple categorical, ordinal, or continuous treatments measured at several time points. We extend the LMTP methodology to problems in which the outcome is a time-to-event variable subject to a competing event that precludes observation of the event of interest. We present identification results and non-parametric locally efficient estimators that use flexible data-adaptive regression techniques to alleviate model misspecification bias, while retaining important asymptotic properties such as [Formula: see text]-consistency. We present an application to the estimation of the effect of the time-to-intubation on acute kidney injury amongst COVID-19 hospitalized patients, where death by other causes is taken to be the competing event.

A causal roadmap for generating high-quality real-world evidence.

Increasing emphasis on the use of real-world evidence (RWE) to support clinical policy and regulatory decision-making has led to a proliferation of guidance, advice, and frameworks from regulatory agencies, academia, professional societies, and industry. A broad spectrum of studies use real-world data (RWD) to produce RWE, ranging from randomized trials with outcomes assessed using RWD to fully observational studies. Yet, many proposals for generating RWE lack sufficient detail, and many analyses of RWD suffer from implausible assumptions, other methodological flaws, or inappropriate interpretations. The Causal Roadmap is an explicit, itemized, iterative process that guides investigators to prespecify study design and analysis plans; it addresses a wide range of guidance within a single framework. By supporting the transparent evaluation of causal assumptions and facilitating objective comparisons of design and analysis choices based on prespecified criteria, the Roadmap can help investigators to evaluate the quality of evidence that a given study is likely to produce, specify a study to generate high-quality RWE, and communicate effectively with regulatory agencies and other stakeholders. This paper aims to disseminate and extend the Causal Roadmap framework for use by clinical and translational researchers; three companion papers demonstrate applications of the Causal Roadmap for specific use cases.

Effect of Sepsis on Death as Modified by Solid Organ Transplantation.

Background: Patients who have undergone solid organ transplants (SOT) have an increased risk for sepsis compared with the general population. Paradoxically, studies suggest that SOT patients with sepsis may experience better outcomes compared with those without a SOT. However, these analyses used previous definitions of sepsis. It remains unknown whether the more recent definitions of sepsis and modern analytic approaches demonstrate a similar relationship. Methods: Using the Weill Cornell-Critical Care Database for Advanced Research, we analyzed granular physiologic, microbiologic, comorbidity, and therapeutic data in patients with and without SOT admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). We used a survival analysis with a targeted minimum loss-based estimation, adjusting for within-group (SOT and non-SOT) potential confounders to ascertain whether the effect of sepsis, defined by sepsis-3, on 28-day mortality was modified by SOT status. We performed additional analyses on restricted populations. Results: We analyzed 28 431 patients: 439 with SOT and sepsis, 281 with SOT without sepsis, 6793 with sepsis and without SOT, and 20 918 with neither. The most common SOT types were kidney (475) and liver (163). Despite a higher severity of illness in both sepsis groups, the adjusted sepsis-attributable effect on 28-day mortality for non-SOT patients was 4.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.8-4.5) and -14.4% (95% CI, -16.8 to -12) for SOT patients. The adjusted SOT effect modification was -18.5% (95% CI, -21.2 to -15.9). The adjusted sepsis-attributable effect for immunocompromised controls was -3.5% (95% CI, -4.5 to -2.6). Conclusions: Across a large database of patients admitted to ICUs, the sepsis-associated 28-day mortality effect was significantly lower in SOT patients compared with controls.

Urine-based multi-omic comparative analysis of COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a life-threatening condition during critical illness, is a common complication of COVID-19. It can originate from various disease etiologies, including severe infections, major injury, or inhalation of irritants. ARDS poses substantial clinical challenges due to a lack of etiology-specific therapies, multisystem involvement, and heterogeneous, poor patient outcomes. A molecular comparison of ARDS groups holds the potential to reveal common and distinct mechanisms underlying ARDS pathogenesis. METHODS: We performed a comparative analysis of urine-based metabolomics and proteomics profiles from COVID-19 ARDS patients (n = 42) and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS patients (n = 17). To this end, we used two different approaches, first we compared the molecular omics profiles between ARDS groups, and second, we correlated clinical manifestations within each group with the omics profiles. RESULTS: The comparison of the two ARDS etiologies identified 150 metabolites and 70 proteins that were differentially abundant between the two groups. Based on these findings, we interrogated the interplay of cell adhesion/extracellular matrix molecules, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction in ARDS pathogenesis through a multi-omic network approach. Moreover, we identified a proteomic signature associated with mortality in COVID-19 ARDS patients, which contained several proteins that had previously been implicated in clinical manifestations frequently linked with ARDS pathogenesis. CONCLUSION: In summary, our results provide evidence for significant molecular differences in ARDS patients from different etiologies and a potential synergy of extracellular matrix molecules, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction in ARDS pathogenesis. The proteomic mortality signature should be further investigated in future studies to develop prediction models for COVID-19 patient outcomes.

An Instrument for Measuring Critical Appraisal Self-Efficacy in Rheumatology Trainees.

OBJECTIVE: Self-efficacy, the internal belief that one can perform a specific task successfully, influences behavior. To promote critical appraisal of medical literature, rheumatology training programs should foster both competence and self-efficacy for critical appraisal. This study aimed to investigate whether select items from the Clinical Research Appraisal Inventory (CRAI), an instrument measuring clinical research self-efficacy, could be used to measure critical appraisal self-efficacy (CASE). METHODS: One hundred twenty-five trainees from 33 rheumatology programs were sent a questionnaire that included two sections of the CRAI. Six CRAI items relevant to CASE were identified a priori; responses generated a CASE score (total score range 0-10; higher = greater confidence in one's ability to perform a specific task successfully). CASE scores' internal structure and relation to domain-concordant variables were analyzed. RESULTS: Questionnaires were completed by 112 of 125 (89.6%) trainees. CASE scores ranged from 0.5 to 8.2. The six CRAI items contributing to the CASE score demonstrated high internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.95) and unidimensionality. Criterion validity was supported by the findings that participants with higher CASE scores rated their epidemiology and biostatistics understanding higher than that of peers (P < 0.0001) and were more likely to report referring to studies to answer clinical questions (odds ratio 2.47, 95% confidence interval 1.41-4.33; P = 0.002). The correlation of CASE scores with percentage of questions answered correctly was only moderate, supporting discriminant validity. CONCLUSION: The six-item CASE instrument demonstrated content validity, internal consistency, discriminative capability, and criterion validity, including correlation with self-reported behavior, supporting its potential as a useful measure of critical appraisal self-efficacy.

Comparison of a Target Trial Emulation Framework vs Cox Regression to Estimate the Association of Corticosteroids With COVID-19 Mortality.

Importance: Communication and adoption of modern study design and analytical techniques is of high importance for the improvement of clinical research from observational data. Objective: To compare a modern method for statistical inference, including a target trial emulation framework and doubly robust estimation, with approaches common in the clinical literature, such as Cox proportional hazards models. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used longitudinal electronic health record data for outcomes at 28-days from time of hospitalization within a multicenter New York, New York, hospital system. Participants included adult patients hospitalized between March 1 and May 15, 2020, with COVID-19 and not receiving corticosteroids for chronic use. Data were analyzed from October 2021 to March 2022. Exposures: Corticosteroid exposure was defined as more than 0.5 mg/kg methylprednisolone equivalent in a 24-hour period. For target trial emulation, exposures were corticosteroids for 6 days if and when a patient met criteria for severe hypoxia vs no corticosteroids. For approaches common in clinical literature, treatment definitions used for variables in Cox regression models varied by study design (no time frame, 1 day, and 5 days from time of severe hypoxia). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was 28-day mortality from time of hospitalization. The association of corticosteroids with mortality for patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 was assessed using the World Health Organization (WHO) meta-analysis of corticosteroid randomized clinical trials as a benchmark. Results: A total of 3298 patients (median [IQR] age, 65 [53-77] years; 1970 [60%] men) were assessed, including 423 patients who received corticosteroids at any point during hospitalization and 699 patients who died within 28 days of hospitalization. Target trial emulation analysis found corticosteroids were associated with a reduced 28-day mortality rate, from 32.2%; (95% CI, 30.9%-33.5%) to 25.7% (95% CI, 24.5%-26.9%). This estimate is qualitatively identical to the WHO meta-analysis odds ratio of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.53-0.82). Hazard ratios using methods comparable with current corticosteroid research range in size and direction, from 0.50 (95% CI, 0.41-0.62) to 1.08 (95% CI, 0.80-1.47). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that clinical research based on observational data can be used to estimate findings similar to those from randomized clinical trials; however, the correctness of these estimates requires designing the study and analyzing the data based on principles that are different from the current standard in clinical research.

Multi-omic comparative analysis of COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a life-threatening condition characterized by hypoxemia and poor lung compliance, is associated with high mortality. ARDS induced by COVID-19 has similar clinical presentations and pathological manifestations as non-COVID-19 ARDS. However, COVID-19 ARDS is associated with a more protracted inflammatory respiratory failure compared to traditional ARDS. Therefore, a comprehensive molecular comparison of ARDS of different etiologies groups may pave the way for more specific clinical interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this study, we compared COVID-19 ARDS (n = 43) and bacterial sepsis-induced (non-COVID-19) ARDS (n = 24) using multi-omic plasma profiles covering 663 metabolites, 1,051 lipids, and 266 proteins. To address both between- and within- ARDS group variabilities we followed two approaches. First, we identified 706 molecules differently abundant between the two ARDS etiologies, revealing more than 40 biological processes differently regulated between the two groups. From these processes, we assembled a cascade of therapeutically relevant pathways downstream of sphingosine metabolism. The analysis suggests a possible overactivation of arginine metabolism involved in long-term sequelae of ARDS and highlights the potential of JAK inhibitors to improve outcomes in bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS. The second part of our study involved the comparison of the two ARDS groups with respect to clinical manifestations. Using a data-driven multi-omic network, we identified signatures of acute kidney injury (AKI) and thrombocytosis within each ARDS group. The AKI-associated network implicated mitochondrial dysregulation which might lead to post-ARDS renal-sequalae. The thrombocytosis-associated network hinted at a synergy between prothrombotic processes, namely IL-17, MAPK, TNF signaling pathways, and cell adhesion molecules. Thus, we speculate that combination therapy targeting two or more of these processes may ameliorate thrombocytosis-mediated hypercoagulation. CONCLUSION: We present a first comprehensive molecular characterization of differences between two ARDS etiologies-COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis. Further investigation into the identified pathways will lead to a better understanding of the pathophysiological processes, potentially enabling novel therapeutic interventions.

Multi-omic comparative analysis of COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS.

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a life-threatening condition characterized by hypoxemia and poor lung compliance, is associated with high mortality. ARDS induced by COVID-19 has similar clinical presentations and pathological manifestations as non-COVID-19 ARDS. However, COVID-19 ARDS is associated with a more protracted inflammatory respiratory failure compared to traditional ARDS. Therefore, a comprehensive molecular comparison of ARDS of different etiologies groups may pave the way for more specific clinical interventions. Methods and Findings: In this study, we compared COVID-19 ARDS (n=43) and bacterial sepsis-induced (non-COVID-19) ARDS (n=24) using multi-omic plasma profiles covering 663 metabolites, 1,051 lipids, and 266 proteins. To address both between- and within-ARDS group variabilities we followed two approaches. First, we identified 706 molecules differently abundant between the two ARDS etiologies, revealing more than 40 biological processes differently regulated between the two groups. From these processes, we assembled a cascade of therapeutically relevant pathways downstream of sphingosine metabolism. The analysis suggests a possible overactivation of arginine metabolism involved in long-term sequelae of ARDS and highlights the potential of JAK inhibitors to improve outcomes in bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS. The second part of our study involved the comparison of the two ARDS groups with respect to clinical manifestations. Using a data-driven multi-omic network, we identified signatures of acute kidney injury (AKI) and thrombocytosis within each ARDS group. The AKI-associated network implicated mitochondrial dysregulation which might lead to post-ARDS renal-sequalae. The thrombocytosis-associated network hinted at a synergy between prothrombotic processes, namely IL-17, MAPK, TNF signaling pathways, and cell adhesion molecules. Thus, we speculate that combination therapy targeting two or more of these processes may ameliorate thrombocytosis-mediated hypercoagulation. Conclusion: We present a first comprehensive molecular characterization of differences between two ARDS etiologies - COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis. Further investigation into the identified pathways will lead to a better understanding of the pathophysiological processes, potentially enabling novel therapeutic interventions.

Urine-based multi-omic comparative analysis of COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a life-threatening condition during critical illness, is a common complication of COVID-19. It can originate from various disease etiologies, including severe infections, major injury, or inhalation of irritants. ARDS poses substantial clinical challenges due to a lack of etiology-specific therapies, multisystem involvement, and heterogeneous, poor patient outcomes. A molecular comparison of ARDS groups holds the potential to reveal common and distinct mechanisms underlying ARDS pathogenesis. In this study, we performed a comparative analysis of urine-based metabolomics and proteomics profiles from COVID-19 ARDS patients (n = 42) and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS patients (n = 17). The comparison of these ARDS etiologies identified 150 metabolites and 70 proteins that were differentially abundant between the two groups. Based on these findings, we interrogated the interplay of cell adhesion/extracellular matrix molecules, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction in ARDS pathogenesis through a multi-omic network approach. Moreover, we identified a proteomic signature associated with mortality in COVID-19 ARDS patients, which contained several proteins that had previously been implicated in clinical manifestations frequently linked with ARDS pathogenesis. In summary, our results provide evidence for significant molecular differences in ARDS patients from different etiologies and a potential synergy of extracellular matrix molecules, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction in ARDS pathogenesis. The proteomic mortality signature should be further investigated in future studies to develop prediction models for COVID-19 patient outcomes.

Patient care in rapid-expansion intensive care units during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the unfortunate reality that many hospitals have insufficient intensive care unit (ICU) capacity to meet massive, unanticipated increases in demand. To drastically increase ICU capacity, NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center modified its existing operating rooms and post-anaesthesia care units during the initial expansion phase to accommodate the surge of critically ill patients. METHODS: This retrospective chart review examined patient care in non-standard Expansion ICUs as compared to standard ICUs. We compared clinical data between the two settings to determine whether the expeditious development and deployment of critical care resources during an evolving medical crisis could provide appropriate care. RESULTS: Sixty-six patients were admitted to Expansion ICUs from March 1st to April 30th, 2020 and 343 were admitted to standard ICUs. Most patients were male (70%), White (30%), 45-64 years old (35%), non-smokers (73%), had hypertension (58%), and were hospitalized for a median of 40 days. For patients that died, there was no difference in treatment management, but the Expansion cohort had a higher median ICU length of stay (q = 0.037) and ventilatory length (q = 0.015). The cohorts had similar rates of discharge to home, but the Expansion ICU cohort had higher rates of discharge to a rehabilitation facility and overall lower mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We found no significantly worse outcomes for the Expansion ICU cohort compared to the standard ICU cohort at our institution during the COVID-19 pandemic, which demonstrates the feasibility of providing safe and effective care for patients in an Expansion ICU.

Integrative metabolomic and proteomic signatures define clinical outcomes in severe COVID-19.

The coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has ravaged global healthcare with previously unseen levels of morbidity and mortality. In this study, we performed large-scale integrative multi-omics analyses of serum obtained from COVID-19 patients with the goal of uncovering novel pathogenic complexities of this disease and identifying molecular signatures that predict clinical outcomes. We assembled a network of protein-metabolite interactions through targeted metabolomic and proteomic profiling in 330 COVID-19 patients compared to 97 non-COVID, hospitalized controls. Our network identified distinct protein-metabolite cross talk related to immune modulation, energy and nucleotide metabolism, vascular homeostasis, and collagen catabolism. Additionally, our data linked multiple proteins and metabolites to clinical indices associated with long-term mortality and morbidity. Finally, we developed a novel composite outcome measure for COVID-19 disease severity based on metabolomics data. The model predicts severe disease with a concordance index of around 0.69, and shows high predictive power of 0.83-0.93 in two independent datasets.

Comparison of a Target Trial Emulation Framework to Cox Regression to Estimate the Effect of Corticosteroids on COVID-19 Mortality.

Importance: Communication and adoption of modern study design and analytical techniques is of high importance for the improvement of clinical research from observational data. Objective: To compare (1) a modern method for causal inference including a target trial emulation framework and doubly robust estimation to (2) approaches common in the clinical literature such as Cox proportional hazards models. To do this, we estimate the effect of corticosteroids on mortality for moderate-to-severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. We use the World Health Organization's (WHO) meta-analysis of corticosteroid randomized controlled trials (RCTs) as a benchmark. Design: Retrospective cohort study using longitudinal electronic health record data for 28 days from time of hospitalization. Settings: Multi-center New York City hospital system. Participants: Adult patients hospitalized between March 1-May 15, 2020 with COVID-19 and not on corticosteroids for chronic use. Intervention: Corticosteroid exposure defined as >0.5mg/kg methylprednisolone equivalent in a 24-hour period. For target trial emulation, interventions are (1) corticosteroids for six days if and when patient meets criteria for severe hypoxia and (2) no corticosteroids. For approaches common in clinical literature, treatment definitions used for variables in Cox regression models vary by study design (no time frame, one-, and five-days from time of severe hypoxia). Main outcome: 28-day mortality from time of hospitalization. Results: 3,298 patients (median age 65 (IQR 53-77), 60% male). 423 receive corticosteroids at any point during hospitalization, 699 die within 28 days of hospitalization. Target trial emulation estimates corticosteroids to reduce 28-day mortality from 32.2% (95% CI 30.9-33.5) to 25.7% (24.5-26.9). This estimate is qualitatively identical to the WHO's RCT meta-analysis odds ratio of 0.66 (0.53-0.82)). Hazard ratios using methods comparable to current corticosteroid research range in size and direction from 0.50 (0.41-0.62) to 1.08 (0.80-1.47). Conclusion and Relevance: Clinical research based on observational data can unveil true causal relationships; however, the correctness of these effect estimates requires designing the study and analyzing the data based on principles which are different from the current standard in clinical research.

Impact of a Rapid Molecular Test for Klebsiella pneumoniae Carbapenemase and Ceftazidime-Avibactam Use on Outcomes After Bacteremia Caused by Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacterales.

BACKGROUND: Patients with bacteremia due to carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) experience delays until appropriate therapy and high mortality rates. Rapid molecular diagnostics for carbapenemases and new ß-lactam/ß-lactamase inhibitors may improve outcomes. METHODS: We conducted an observational study of patients with CRE bacteremia from 2016 to 2018 at 8 New York and New Jersey medical centers and assessed center-specific clinical microbiology practices. We compared time to receipt of active antimicrobial therapy and mortality between patients whose positive blood cultures underwent rapid molecular testing for the Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC) gene (blaKPC) and patients whose cultures did not undergo this test. CRE isolates underwent antimicrobial susceptibility testing by broth microdilution and carbapenemase profiling by whole-genome sequencing. We also assessed outcomes when ceftazidime-avibactam and polymyxins were used as targeted therapies. RESULTS: Of 137 patients with CRE bacteremia, 89 (65%) had a KPC-producing organism. Patients whose blood cultures underwent blaKPC PCR testing (n = 51) had shorter time until receipt of active therapy (median: 24 vs 50 hours; P = .009) compared with other patients (n = 86) and decreased 14-day (16% vs 37%; P = .007) and 30-day (24% vs 47%; P = .007) mortality. blaKPC PCR testing was associated with decreased 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio: .37; 95% CI: .16-.84) in an adjusted model. The 30-day mortality rate was 10% with ceftazidime-avibactam monotherapy and 31% with polymyxin monotherapy (P = .08). CONCLUSIONS: In a KPC-endemic area, blaKPC PCR testing of positive blood cultures was associated with decreased time until appropriate therapy and decreased mortality for CRE bacteremia, and ceftazidime-avibactam is a reasonable first-line therapy for these infections.

Assessing mortality differences across acute respiratory failure management strategies in Covid-19.

PURPOSE: Prolonged observation could avoid invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and related risks in patients with Covid-19 acute respiratory failure (ARF) compared to initiating early IMV. We aimed to determine the association between ARF management strategy and in-hospital mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients in the Weill Cornell Covid-19 registry who developed ARF between March 5 - March 25, 2020 were exposed to an early IMV strategy; between March 26 - April 1, 2020 to an intermediate strategy; and after April 2 to prolonged observation. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model in-hospital mortality and test an interaction between ARF management strategy and modified sequential organ failure assessment (mSOFA). RESULTS: Among 632 patients with ARF, 24% of patients in the early IMV strategy died versus 28% in prolonged observation. At lower mSOFA, prolonged observation was associated with lower mortality compared to early IMV (at mSOFA = 0, HR 0.16 [95% CI 0.04-0.57]). Mortality risk increased in the prolonged observation strategy group with each point increase in mSOFA score (HR 1.29 [95% CI 1.10-1.51], p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: In Covid-19 ARF, prolonged observation was associated with a mortality benefit at lower mSOFA scores, and increased mortality at higher mSOFA scores compared to early IMV.

Angiopoietin 2 Is Associated with Vascular Necroptosis Induction in Coronavirus Disease 2019 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

Vascular injury is a well-established, disease-modifying factor in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) pathogenesis. Recently, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-induced injury to the vascular compartment has been linked to complement activation, microvascular thrombosis, and dysregulated immune responses. This study sought to assess whether aberrant vascular activation in this prothrombotic context was associated with the induction of necroptotic vascular cell death. To achieve this, proteomic analysis was performed on blood samples from COVID-19 subjects at distinct time points during ARDS pathogenesis (hospitalized at risk, N = 59; ARDS, N = 31; and recovery, N = 12). Assessment of circulating vascular markers in the at-risk cohort revealed a signature of low vascular protein abundance that tracked with low platelet levels and increased mortality. This signature was replicated in the ARDS cohort and correlated with increased plasma angiopoietin 2 levels. COVID-19 ARDS lung autopsy immunostaining confirmed a link between vascular injury (angiopoietin 2) and platelet-rich microthrombi (CD61) and induction of necrotic cell death [phosphorylated mixed lineage kinase domain-like (pMLKL)]. Among recovery subjects, the vascular signature identified patients with poor functional outcomes. Taken together, this vascular injury signature was associated with low platelet levels and increased mortality and can be used to identify ARDS patients most likely to benefit from vascular targeted therapies.

Characterizing COPD Symptom Variability in the Stable State Utilizing the Evaluating Respiratory Symptoms in COPD Instrument.

Rationale: It has been suggested that patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experience considerable daily respiratory symptom fluctuation. A standardized measure is needed to quantify and understand the implications of day-to-day symptom variability. Objectives: To compare standard deviation with other statistical measures of symptom variability and identify characteristics of individuals with higher symptom variability. Methods: Individuals in the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) Exacerbations sub-study completed an Evaluating Respiratory Symptoms in COPD (E-RS) daily questionnaire. We calculated within-subject standard deviation (WS-SD) for each patient at week 0 and correlated this with measurements obtained 4 weeks later using Pearson's r and Bland Altman plots. Median WS-SD value dichotomized participants into higher versus lower variability groups. Association between WS-SD and exacerbation risk during 4 follow-up weeks was explored. Measurements and Main Results: Diary completion rates were sufficient in 140 (68%) of 205 sub-study participants. Reproducibility (r) of the WS-SD metric from baseline to week 4 was 0.32. Higher variability participants had higher St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) scores (47.3 ± 20.3 versus 39.6 ± 21.5, p=.04) than lower variability participants. Exploratory analyses found no relationship between symptom variability and health care resource utilization-defined exacerbations. Conclusions: WS-SD of the E-RS can be used as a measure of symptom variability in studies of patients with COPD. Patients with higher variability have worse health-related quality of life. WS-SD should be further validated as a measure to understand the implications of symptom variability.