Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate.

Climate variability and natural hazards like floods and earthquakes can act as environmental shocks or socioecological stressors leading to instability and suffering throughout human history. Yet, societies experience a wide range of outcomes when facing such challenges: some suffer from social unrest, civil violence or complete collapse; others prove more resilient and maintain key social functions. We currently lack a clear, generally agreed-upon conceptual framework and evidentiary base to explore what causes these divergent outcomes. Here, we discuss efforts to develop such a framework through the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) programme. We illustrate that the impact of environmental stressors is mediated through extant cultural, political and economic structures that evolve over extended timescales (decades to centuries). These structures can generate high resilience to major shocks, facilitate positive adaptation, or, alternatively, undermine collective action and lead to unrest, violence and even societal collapse. By exposing the ways that different societies have reacted to crises over their lifetime, this framework can help identify the factors and complex social-ecological interactions that either bolster or undermine resilience to contemporary climate shocks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Single-centre outcome of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation after the neonatal Norwood procedure.

OBJECTIVES: Despite improvements in the surgical management of the hypoplastic left heart syndrome and its variant, the Norwood procedure is still associated with substantial mortality and morbidity and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support is required in some patients. METHODS: We reviewed patients with the Norwood procedure between 2007 and 2019. The primary end point of the study was mortality during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Secondary end points included morbidity, bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt and Fontan completion. RESULTS: Of the 257 patients in whom the Norwood procedure was performed, mechanical support was required in 41 patients (16%). Indications for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation were low cardiac output (n = 16, 39%), hypoxaemia (n = 12, 29%) and inability to wean from cardiopulmonary bypass (n = 9, 22%). The median age at extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was 10.9 days (interquartile range, 7.9-21.2) and veno-arterial support was required in 37 patients (90.2%). Weaning from extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was achieved in 61% (n = 25). Survival to hospital discharge and 1-year survival was 34.6% (standard deviation: 17.1) and 25.7% (standard deviation: 7), respectively. Bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt was performed in 24% (n = 10) and Fontan completion in 7% (n = 3). Preoperative moderate or greater atrioventricular valve regurgitation was independently associated with mechanical support. Implantation of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in the paediatric catheter laboratory was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate or greater atrioventricular valve regurgitation is an independent risk factor for mechanical support after the Norwood procedure. Mechanical support is associated with substantial in-hospital mortality; however, successful Fontan completion was accomplished in some patients.

A structured open dataset of government interventions in response to COVID-19.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Monitoring and documenting government strategies during the COVID-19 crisis is crucial to understand the progression of the epidemic. Following a content analysis strategy of existing public information sources, we developed a specific hierarchical coding scheme for NPIs. We generated a comprehensive structured dataset of government interventions and their respective timelines of implementation. To improve transparency and motivate collaborative validation process, information sources are shared via an open library. We also provide codes that enable users to visualise the dataset. Standardization and structure of the dataset facilitate inter-country comparison and the assessment of the impacts of different NPI categories on the epidemic parameters, population health indicators, the economy, and human rights, among others. This dataset provides an in-depth insight of the government strategies and can be a valuable tool for developing relevant preparedness plans for pandemic. We intend to further develop and update this dataset until the end of December 2020.

Impact of a peer-review network on the quality of inpatient low secure mental health services: cluster randomised control trial.

BACKGROUND: Peer-review networks aim to help services to improve the quality of care they provide, however, there is very little evidence about their impact. We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial of a peer-review quality network for low-secure mental health services to examine the impact of network membership on the process and outcomes of care over a 12 month period. METHODS: Thirty-eight low secure units were randomly allocated to either the active intervention (participation in the network n = 18) or the control arm (delayed participation in the network n = 20). A total of 75 wards were assessed at baseline and 8 wards dropped out the study before the data collection at 12 month follow up. The primary outcome measure was the quality of the physical environment and facilities of the services. The secondary outcomes included: safety of the ward, patient mental wellbeing and satisfaction with care, staff burnout, training and supervision. We hypothesised that, relative to control wards, the quality of the physical environment and facilities would be higher on wards in the active arm of the trial 12 months after randomization. RESULTS: The difference in the primary outcome between the groups was not statistically significant (4.1; 95% CI [- 0.2, 8.3] p = 0.06). The median number of untoward incidents rose in control services and remained the same at the member of the network (Difference between members and non-members = 0.55; 95% IC [0.29, 1.07] p = 0.08). At follow up, a higher proportion of staff in the active arm of the trial indicated that they felt safe on the ward relative to those in the control services (p = 0.04), despite reporting more physical assaults (p = 0.04). Staff working in services in the active arm of the trial reported higher levels of burnout relative to those in the control group. No difference was seen in patient outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find evidence that participation in a peer-review network led to marked changes in the quality of the physical environment of low secure mental health services at 12 months. Future research should explore the impact of accreditation schemes and examine longer term outcomes of participation in such networks. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN79614916 . Retrospectively registered 28 March 2014.