The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development.

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Cyanobacterial bloom phenology in Saginaw Bay from MODIS and a comparative look with western Lake Erie.

Saginaw Bay and western Lake Erie basin (WLEB) are eutrophic catchments in the Laurentian Great Lakes that experience annual, summer-time cyanobacterial blooms. Both basins share many features including similar size, shallow depths, and equivalent-sized watersheds. They are geographically close and both basins derive a preponderance of their nutrient supply from a single river. Despite these similarities, the bloom phenology in each basin is quite different. The blooms in Saginaw Bay occur at the same time and place and at the same moderate severity level each year. The WLEB, in contrast, exhibits far greater interannual variability in the timing, location, and severity of the bloom than Saginaw Bay, consistent with greater and more variable phosphorus inputs. Saginaw Bay has bloom biomass that corresponds to relatively mild blooms in WLEB, and also has equivalent phosphorus loads. This result suggests that if inputs of P into the WLEB were reduced to similarly sized loads as Saginaw Bay the most severe blooms would be abated. Above 500 t P input, which occur in WLEB, blooms increase non-linearly indicating any reduction in P-input at the highest inputs levels currently occurring in the WLEB, would yield disproportionately large reductions in cyanobacterial bloom intensity. As the maximum phosphorus loads in Saginaw Bay lie just below this inflection point, shifts in the Saginaw Bay watershed toward greater agriculture uses and less wetlands may substantially increase the risk of more intense cyanobacterial blooms than presently occur.

Assessment of Fecal Indicator Bacteria and Potential Pathogen Co-Occurrence at a Shellfish Growing Area.

Routine monitoring of shellfish growing waters for bacteria indicative of human sewage pollution reveals little about the bacterial communities that co-occur with these indicators. This study investigated the bacterial community, potential pathogens, and fecal indicator bacteria in 40 water samples from a shellfish growing area in the Chesapeake Bay, USA. Bacterial community composition was quantified with deep sequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons, and absolute gene abundances were estimated with an internal standard (Thermus thermophilus genomes). Fecal coliforms were quantified by culture, and Vibrio vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus with quantitative PCR. Fecal coliforms and V. vulnificus were detected in most samples, and a diverse assemblage of potential human pathogens were detected in all samples. These taxa followed two general patterns of abundance. Fecal coliforms and 16S rRNA genes for Enterobacteriaceae, Aeromonas, Arcobacter, Staphylococcus, and Bacteroides increased in abundance after a 1.3-inch rain event in May, and, for some taxa, after smaller rain events later in the season, suggesting that these are allochthonous organisms washed in from land. Clostridiaceae and Mycobacterium 16S rRNA gene abundances increased with day of the year and were not positively related to rainfall, suggesting that these are autochthonous organisms. Other groups followed both patterns, such as Legionella. Fecal coliform abundance did not correlate with most other taxa, but were extremely high following the large rainstorm in May when they co-occurred with a broad range of potential pathogen groups. V. vulnificus were absent during the large rainstorm, and did not correlate with 16S rRNA abundances of Vibrio spp. or most other taxa. These results highlight the complex nature of bacterial communities and the limited utility of using specific bacterial groups as indicators of pathogen presence.

Patterns of Transcript Abundance of Eukaryotic Biogeochemically-Relevant Genes in the Amazon River Plume.

The Amazon River has the largest discharge of all rivers on Earth, and its complex plume system fuels a wide array of biogeochemical processes, across a large area of the western tropical North Atlantic. The plume thus stimulates microbial processes affecting carbon sequestration and nutrient cycles at a global scale. Chromosomal gene expression patterns of the 2.0 to 156 µm size-fraction eukaryotic microbial community were investigated in the Amazon River Plume, generating a robust dataset (more than 100 million mRNA sequences) that depicts the metabolic capabilities and interactions among the eukaryotic microbes. Combining classical oceanographic field measurements with metatranscriptomics yielded characterization of the hydrographic conditions simultaneous with a quantification of transcriptional activity and identity of the community. We highlight the patterns of eukaryotic gene expression for 31 biogeochemically significant gene targets hypothesized to be valuable within forecasting models. An advantage to this targeted approach is that the database of reference sequences used to identify the target genes was selectively constructed and highly curated optimizing taxonomic coverage, throughput, and the accuracy of annotations. A coastal diatom bloom highly expressed nitrate transporters and carbonic anhydrase presumably to support high growth rates and enhance uptake of low levels of dissolved nitrate and CO2. Diatom-diazotroph association (DDA: diatoms with nitrogen fixing symbionts) blooms were common when surface salinity was mesohaline and dissolved nitrate concentrations were below detection, and hence did not show evidence of nitrate utilization, suggesting they relied on ammonium transporters to aquire recently fixed nitrogen. These DDA blooms in the outer plume had rapid turnover of the photosystem D1 protein presumably caused by photodegradation under increased light penetration in clearer waters, and increased expression of silicon transporters as silicon became limiting. Expression of these genes, including carbonic anhydrase and transporters for nitrate and phosphate, were found to reflect the physiological status and biogeochemistry of river plume environments. These relatively stable patterns of eukaryotic transcript abundance occurred over modest spatiotemporal scales, with similarity observed in sample duplicates collected up to 2.45 km in space and 120 minutes in time. These results confirm the use of metatranscriptomics as a valuable tool to understand and predict microbial community function.

Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land-estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets.

The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within-estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite-derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001-2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 109 g N yr-1) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 109 g N yr-1) and buried (46 × 109 g N yr-1) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 109 g N yr-1) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50-60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf.

Predicting the distribution of Vibrio spp. in the Chesapeake Bay: a Vibrio cholerae case study.

Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is a naturally occurring inhabitant of the Chesapeake Bay and serves as a predictor for other clinically important vibrios, including Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus. A system was constructed to predict the likelihood of the presence of V. cholerae in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay, with the goal to provide forecasts of the occurrence of this and related pathogenic Vibrio spp. Prediction was achieved by driving an available multivariate empirical habitat model estimating the probability of V. cholerae within a range of temperatures and salinities in the Bay, with hydrodynamically generated predictions of ambient temperature and salinity. The experimental predictions provided both an improved understanding of the in situ variability of V. cholerae, including identification of potential hotspots of occurrence, and usefulness as an early warning system. With further development of the system, prediction of the probability of the occurrence of related pathogenic vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, notably V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus, will be possible, as well as its transport to any geographical location where sufficient relevant data are available.