District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Simplified dosing of oral azithromycin for children 1-11 months old in child survival programmes: age-based and height-based dosing protocols.

BACKGROUND: To facilitate mass distribution of azithromycin, trachoma control programmes use height instead of weight to determine dose for children 6 months to 15 years old. WHO has recommended azithromycin distribution to children 1-11 months old to reduce mortality in high mortality settings under carefully monitored conditions. Weight was used to determine dose in children 1-5 months old in studies of azithromycin distribution for child survival, but a simplified approach using age or height for all aged 1-11 months old could increase programme efficiency in real-world settings. METHODS: This secondary analysis used data from two cluster randomised trials of azithromycin distribution for child mortality in Niger and Burkina Faso. An exhaustive search algorithm was developed to determine the optimal dose for different age groups, using tolerance limits of 10-20 mg/kg for children 1-2 months old and 15-30 mg/kg for children 3-11 months old. Height-based dosing was evaluated against the existing trachoma dosing pole and with a similar exhaustive search. RESULTS: The optimal two-tiered age-based approach suggested a dose of 80 mg (2 mL) for children 1-2 months old and 160 mg (4 mL) for children 3-11 months old. Under this schedule, 89%-93% of children would have received doses within tolerance limits in both study populations. Accuracy was 93%-94% with a three-tiered approach, which resulted in doses of 80 mg (2 mL), 120 mg (3 mL) and 160 mg (4 mL) for children 1-2, 3-4 and 5-11 months old, respectively. For children 1-5 months old, the existing height pole would result in 70% of doses within tolerance limits. The optimisation identified height-based dosing options with 95% accuracy, although this would require changes to the existing dosing pole as well as additional training to measure infants lying flat. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, an age-based approach with two age tiers resulted in high accuracy while considering both concerns about overdosing in this young population and simplicity of field operations.

Forecasting the elimination of active trachoma: An empirical model.

BACKGROUND: Great progress has been made toward the elimination of trachoma as a public-health problem. Mathematical and statistical models have been used to forecast when the program will attain the goal of the elimination of active trachoma, defined as prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular in 1-9 year olds (TF1-9) <5%. Here we use program data to create an empirical model predicting the year of attaining global elimination of TF1-9. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We calculated the mean number of years (95% CI) observed for an implementation unit (IU) to move from a baseline TF1-9 prevalence ≥5% to the elimination threshold, based on the region (Ethiopia vs. non-Ethiopia) and baseline prevalence category. Ethiopia IUs had significantly different rates of reaching the TF1-9 elimination threshold after a trachoma impact survey (TIS) compared to non-Ethiopia IUs across all baseline categories. We used those estimates to predict when remaining active trachoma-endemic IUs (TF1-9 ≥5%) would have their last round of mass drug administration (MDA) based on the mean number of years required and number of MDA rounds already completed. Our model predicts that elimination of TF1-9 will be achieved in 2028 in Ethiopia (95% CI: 2026-2033) and 2029 outside of Ethiopia (95% CI: 2023-2034), with some IUs in East Africa predicted to be the last requiring MDA globally. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our empirical estimate is similar to those resulting from previous susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and mathematical models, suggesting that the forecast achievement of TF1-9 elimination is realistic with the caveat that although disease elimination progress can be predicted for most IUs, there is an important minority of IUs that is not declining or has not yet started trachoma elimination activities. These IUs represent an important barrier to the timely global elimination of active trachoma.

Global progress toward the elimination of active trachoma: an analysis of 38 countries.

BACKGROUND: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem was targeted for 2020. We reviewed progress towards the elimination of active trachoma by country and geographical group. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of national survey and implementation data, all countries ever known to be endemic for trachoma that had either implemented at least one trachoma impact survey shown in the publicly available Trachoma Atlas, or are in Africa were invited to participate in this study. Scale-up was described according to the number of known endemic implementation units and mass drug administration implementation over time. The prevalence of active trachoma-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) from baseline, impact, and surveillance surveys was categorised and used to show programme progress towards reaching the elimination threshold (TF1-9 <5%) using dot maps, spaghetti plots, and boxplots. FINDINGS: We included data until Nov 10, 2021, for 38 countries, representing 2097 ever-endemic implementation units. Of these, 1923 (91·7%) have had mass drug administration. Of 1731 implementation units with a trachoma impact survey, the prevalence of TF1-9 had reduced by at least 50% in 1465 (84·6%) implementation units and 1182 (56·4%) of 2097 ever-endemic implementation units had reached the elimination threshold. 2 years after reaching a TF1-9 prevalence below 5%, most implementation units sustained this target; however, 58 (56·3%) of 103 implementation units in Ethiopia showed recrudescence. INTERPRETATION: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2020 was not possible, but this finding masks the great progress achieved. Implementation units in high baseline categories and recrudescent TF1-9 might prolong the attainment of elimination of active trachoma. Elimination is delayed but, with an understanding of the patterns and timelines to reaching elimination targets and a commitment toward meeting future targets, global elimination can still be achieved by 2030. FUNDING: None.

An observational assessment of the safety of mass drug administration for trachoma in Ethiopian children.

BACKGROUND: The International Trachoma Initiative (ITI) provides azithromycin for mass drug administration (MDA) to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. Azithromycin is given as tablets for adults and powder for oral suspension (POS) is recommended for children aged <7 y, children <120 cm in height (regardless of age) or anyone who reports difficulty in swallowing tablets. An observational assessment of MDA for trachoma was conducted to determine the frequency with which children aged 6 mo through 14 y received the recommended dose and form of azithromycin according to current dosing guidelines and to assess risk factors for choking and adverse swallowing events (ASEs). METHODS: MDA was observed in three regions of Ethiopia and data were collected on azithromycin administration and ASEs. RESULTS: A total of 6477 azithromycin administrations were observed; 97.9% of children received the exact recommended dose. Of children aged 6 mo to <7 y or <120 cm in height, 99.6% received POS. One child experienced choking and 132 (2%) experienced ≥1 ASEs. Factors significantly associated with ASEs included age 6-11 mo or 1-6 y, non-calm demeanor and requiring coaxing prior to drug administration. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high level of adherence to the revised azithromycin dosing guidelines and low incidence of choking and ASEs.

Use of modelling to modify trachoma elimination strategies affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Models predict that the negative effects of delayed implementation in trachoma elimination programmes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will be minimal, except in high prevalence districts where progress may be reversed. During times of change we must stand by our principles of evidence-based decision-making, but also be willing to show flexibility. Slow progress to elimination in high prevalence districts was already a significant challenge to the global programme and mitigation of COVID-related delays with enhanced implementation provides an opportunity to simultaneously address an unprecedented challenge and a pre-existing one.

Trachoma Prevalence After Discontinuation of Mass Azithromycin Distribution.

BACKGROUND: As the World Health Organization seeks to eliminate trachoma by 2020, countries are beginning to control the transmission of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and discontinue mass drug administration (MDA) with oral azithromycin. We evaluated the effect of MDA discontinuation on TF1-9 prevalence at the district level. METHODS: We extracted from the available data districts with an impact survey at the end of their program cycle that initiated discontinuation of MDA (TF1-9 prevalence <5%), followed by a surveillance survey conducted to determine whether TF1-9 prevalence remained below the 5% threshold, warranting discontinuation of MDA. Two independent analyses were performed, 1 regression based and 1 simulation based, that assessed the change in TF1-9 from the impact survey to the surveillance survey. RESULTS: Of the 220 districts included, TF1-9 prevalence increased to >5% from impact to surveillance survey in 9% of districts. Regression analysis indicated that impact survey TF1-9 prevalence was a significant predictor of surveillance survey TF1-9 prevalence. The proportion of simulations with >5% TF1-9 prevalence in the surveillance survey was 2%, assuming the survey was conducted 4 years after MDA. CONCLUSION: An increase in TF1-9 prevalence may represent disease resurgence but could also be due to measurement error. Improved diagnostic tests are crucial to elimination of TF1-9 as a public health problem.

Antimicrobial resistance following mass azithromycin distribution for trachoma: a systematic review.

Mass azithromycin distribution is a core component of trachoma control programmes and could reduce mortality in children younger than 5 years in some settings. In this systematic review we synthesise evidence on the emergence of antimicrobial resistance after mass azithromycin distribution. We searched electronic databases for publications up to June 14, 2018. We included studies of any type (excluding modelling studies, surveillance reports, and review articles) on community-wide distribution of oral azithromycin for the prevention and treatment of trachoma that assessed macrolide resistance, without restrictions to the type of organism. We extracted prevalence of resistance from published reports and requested unpublished data from authors of included studies. Of 213 identified studies, 19 met inclusion criteria (12 assessed Streptococcus pneumoniae) and were used for qualitative synthesis. Macrolide resistance after azithromycin distribution was reported in three of the five organisms studied. The lack of resistance in Chlamydia trachomatis suggests that azithromycin might remain effective for trachoma programmes, but evidence is scarce. As mass azithromycin distribution for trachoma continues and is considered for other indications, ongoing monitoring of antimicrobial resistance will be required.

Quality Assurance and Quality Control in the Global Trachoma Mapping Project.

In collaboration with the health ministries that we serve and other partners, we set out to complete the multiple-country Global Trachoma Mapping Project. To maximize the accuracy and reliability of its outputs, we needed in-built, practical mechanisms for quality assurance and quality control. This article describes how those mechanisms were created and deployed. Using expert opinion, computer simulation, working groups, field trials, progressively accumulated in-project experience, and external evaluations, we developed 1) criteria for where and where not to undertake population-based prevalence surveys for trachoma; 2) three iterations of a standardized training and certification system for field teams; 3) a customized Android phone-based data collection app; 4) comprehensive support systems; and 5) a secure end-to-end pipeline for data upload, storage, cleaning by objective data managers, analysis, health ministry review and approval, and online display. We are now supporting peer-reviewed publication. Our experience shows that it is possible to quality control and quality assure prevalence surveys in such a way as to maximize comparability of prevalence estimates between countries and permit high-speed, high-fidelity data processing and storage, while protecting the interests of health ministries.

The effect of implant position on bone strain following lateral unicompartmental knee arthroplasty: A Biomechanical Model Using Digital Image Correlation.

OBJECTIVES: Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) is a demanding procedure, with tibial component subsidence or pain from high tibial strain being potential causes of revision. The optimal position in terms of load transfer has not been documented for lateral UKA. Our aim was to determine the effect of tibial component position on proximal tibial strain. METHODS: A total of 16 composite tibias were implanted with an Oxford Domed Lateral Partial Knee implant using cutting guides to define tibial slope and resection depth. Four implant positions were assessed: standard (5° posterior slope); 10° posterior slope; 5° reverse tibial slope; and 4 mm increased tibial resection. Using an electrodynamic axial-torsional materials testing machine (Instron 5565), a compressive load of 1.5 kN was applied at 60 N/s on a meniscal bearing via a matching femoral component. Tibial strain beneath the implant was measured using a calibrated Digital Image Correlation system. RESULTS: A 5° increase in tibial component posterior slope resulted in a 53% increase in mean major principal strain in the posterior tibial zone adjacent to the implant (p = 0.003). The highest strains for all implant positions were recorded in the anterior cortex 2 cm to 3 cm distal to the implant. Posteriorly, strain tended to decrease with increasing distance from the implant. Lateral cortical strain showed no significant relationship with implant position. CONCLUSION: Relatively small changes in implant position and orientation may significantly affect tibial cortical strain. Avoidance of excessive posterior tibial slope may be advisable during lateral UKA.Cite this article: A. M. Ali, S. D. S. Newman, P. A. Hooper, C. M. Davies, J. P. Cobb. The effect of implant position on bone strain following lateral unicompartmental knee arthroplasty: A Biomechanical Model Using Digital Image Correlation. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:522-529. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.68.BJR-2017-0067.R1.

Structural and functional changes to the retina and optic nerve following panretinal photocoagulation over a 2-year time period.

PurposeTo evaluate long-term structural and functional changes to the retina and optic nerve following panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) in diabetic retinopathy (DR) patients.MethodsParticipants were patients with DR requiring PRP and control patients with DR not requiring PRP. The Heidelberg retinal tomography (HRT) and optical coherence tomography (OCT) were performed to analyze the optic nerve and macula. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and visual field (VF) testing were done to measure central and peripheral vision. Wide-field fluorescein angiogram was performed to monitor the progression of diabetic ischemia. The primary outcome measure was to determine the degree of retinal and optic nerve changes before and after PRP.ResultsThere was a non-significant thickening of the macula and retinal nerve fiber layer at 6 months post laser that recovered by 24 months. Mean perfused ratio was significantly increased (P=0.02) at 12 and 24 months post laser. Independently grading patient stereophotographs, grader 1 indicated there was a non-significant increase in cup to disk ratio post laser, while grader 2 indicated a significant increase at 6 (P=0.04), 12 (P=0.02), and 24 months (P=0.005). There was a significant VF decrease (P≤0.02) at 12 and 24 months post laser with BCVA showing a non-significant trend of deteriorating results.ConclusionDespite an improvement in peripheral perfusion, there was a significant progressive decline of peripheral VF over the study period. Clinical grading of the optic nerve was more unreliable following PRP, despite the absence of significant morphological changes as detected by the OCT and HRT.

Compressive strength after blast of sandwich composite materials.

Composite sandwich materials have yet to be widely adopted in the construction of naval vessels despite their excellent strength-to-weight ratio and low radar return. One barrier to their wider use is our limited understanding of their performance when subjected to air blast. This paper focuses on this problem and specifically the strength remaining after damage caused during an explosion. Carbon-fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite skins on a styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) polymer closed-cell foam core are the primary composite system evaluated. Glass-fibre-reinforced polymer (GFRP) composite skins were also included for comparison in a comparable sandwich configuration. Full-scale blast experiments were conducted, where 1.6×1.3 m sized panels were subjected to blast of a Hopkinson-Cranz scaled distance of 3.02 m kg(-1/3), 100 kg TNT equivalent at a stand-off distance of 14 m. This explosive blast represents a surface blast threat, where the shockwave propagates in air towards the naval vessel. Hopkinson was the first to investigate the characteristics of this explosive air-blast pulse (Hopkinson 1948 Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 89, 411-413 (doi:10.1098/rspa.1914.0008)). Further analysis is provided on the performance of the CFRP sandwich panel relative to the GFRP sandwich panel when subjected to blast loading through use of high-speed speckle strain mapping. After the blast events, the residual compressive load-bearing capacity is investigated experimentally, using appropriate loading conditions that an in-service vessel may have to sustain. Residual strength testing is well established for post-impact ballistic assessment, but there has been less research performed on the residual strength of sandwich composites after blast.

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis: health impact during its first 8 years (2000-2007).

During its first 8 years, the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis provided more than 1900 million treatments with antifilarial drugs (albendazole, ivermectin and diethylcarbamazine) to at least 570 million people in 48 countries with endemic lymphatic filariasis (LF). As a result of this impressive global effort and an unprecedented public-private partnership, 8 years of mass drug administration (MDA) have prevented the spread of filarial infection to an estimated 6.6 million newborns, stopped the progression to clinical morbidity in 9.5 million individuals already infected with the parasites that cause LF, and drastically reduced the burden of several co-infections. The resulting health benefits of the MDA, in terms of reduced morbidity and disability-adjusted life-years, are thus enormous. The next step should be an analysis of the Global Programme's economic impact from its first 8 years of MDA.

Rapid diagnosis of highly pathogenic avian influenza using pancreatic impression smears.

The 1985 outbreak of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) in Victoria, Australia, took 5 days to confirm by standard laboratory tests, during which time infected chickens continued excreting virus, thus creating the opportunity for transmission to other farms. An immunofluorescence test for the detection of viral antigen in tissue impression smears was evaluated as a rapid diagnostic test for HPAI virus infections of poultry. Several test configurations were compared for background reactions and strength of fluorescence, with the optimum combination found to be an influenza A group-specific monoclonal antibody, detected by an anti-mouse fluorescein isothiocyanate conjugate. Immunohistochemical examination of tissues from chickens experimentally infected with low-pathogenicity and HPAI viruses identified the pancreas as the organ most consistently containing high concentrations of HPAI viral antigen. This test has since been used in Australia in the rapid laboratory confirmation of three avian influenza outbreaks and in showing that numerous other suspect cases were not caused by avian influenza.

Pathogenicity of Australian strains of avian infectious bronchitis virus.

The pathogenicity of 25 strains of infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) isolated in Australia between 1961 and 1994 was compared in white leghorn specific pathogen-free chicks. Twelve strains were nephropathogenic and 10 respiratory, the other three being of mixed pathogenicity. The IBV strains identified as nephropathogenic induced clinical nephritis, gross and histological kidney lesions, and mortality of 5-90%. According to the severity of these features, the nephropathogenic strains could be further subdivided into strains of high, moderate or low pathogenicity. The three strains of mixed pathogenicity induced tracheitis, mild clinical nephritis and kidney lesions but no mortality. The 10 respiratory strains caused histological lesions in the trachea but not in the kidney, and did not induce clinical nephritis or mortality. Of 12 IBV strains isolated between 1961 and 1976, nine were nephropathogenic, inducing mortality of 15-90%. In contrast, of 13 strains isolated between 1981 and 1994, only three were nephropathogenic, inducing mortality of 5-37%, whereas nine were respiratory. Seven of these nine strains, unlike other respiratory strains, failed completely to replicate in the kidney. The results indicated a change in the prevalent IBV strains from highly nephropathogenic (1960s to 1970s) to respiratory (1980s to early 1990s); moreover, the late 1980s saw the emergence of respiratory strains with altered tissue tropism.