Facing the challenge of NDVI dataset consistency for improved characterization of vegetation response to climate variability.

Non-linear trend detection in Earth observation time series has become a standard method to characterize changes in terrestrial ecosystems. However, results are largely dependent on the quality and consistency of the input data, and only few studies have addressed the impact of data artifacts on the interpretation of detected abrupt changes. Here we study non-linear dynamics and turning points (TPs) of temperate grasslands in East Eurasia using two independent state-of-the-art satellite NDVI datasets (CGLS v3 and MODIS C6) and explore the impact of water availability on observed vegetation changes during 2001-2019. By applying the Break For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST01) method, we conducted a classification typology based on vegetation dynamics which was spatially consistent between the datasets for 41 % (459,669 km2) of the study area. When considering also the timing of the TPs, 27 % of the pixels showed consistent results between datasets, suggesting that careful interpretation is needed for >2/3 of the areas of detected vegetation dynamics when applying BFAST to a single dataset. Notably, for these areas showing identical typology we found that interrupted decreases in vegetation productivity were dominant in the transition zone between desert and steppes. Here, a strong link with changes in water availability was found for >80 % of the area, indicating that increasing drought stress has regulated vegetation productivity in recent years. This study shows the necessity of a cautious interpretation of the results when conducting advanced characterization of vegetation response to climate variability, but at the same time also the opportunities of going beyond the use of single datasets in advanced time-series approaches to better understand dryland vegetation dynamics for improved anthropogenic interventions to combat vegetation productivity decrease.

Changes in vegetation-water response in the Sahel-Sudan during recent decades.

Study region: The Africa Sahel-Sudan region, defined by annual rainfall between 150 and 1200 mm. Study focus: Understanding the mechanism of vegetation response to water availability could help mitigate the potential adverse effects of climate change on global dryland ecosystems. In the Sahel-Sudan region, spatio-temporal changes and drivers of the vegetation-water response remain unclear. This study employs long-term satellite water and vegetation products as proxies of water availability and vegetation productivity to analyze changes in vegetation-water sensitivity and the cumulative effect duration (CED) representing a measure of the legacy effect of the impact of water constraints on vegetation. A random forest model was subsequently used to analyze potential climatic drivers of the observed vegetation response. New hydrological insights for the region: During 1982-2016 we found a significant decrease (p < 0.05) in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to water constraints in 26% of the Sahel-Sudan region, while 9% of the area showed a significantly increased sensitivity, mainly in the sub-humid zone. We further showed that CED significantly increased and decreased, respectively in around 9% of the study area in both cases. Our climatic driver attribution analysis suggested the existence of varying underlying mechanisms governing vegetation productivity in response to water deficit across the Sahel-Sudan dryland ecosystems. Our findings emphasize the need for diverse strategies in sustainable ecosystem management to effectively address these varying mechanisms.

The success of ecological engineering projects on vegetation restoration in China strongly depends on climatic conditions.

China has implemented extensive ecological engineering projects (EEPs) during recent decades to restore and enhance ecosystem functioning. However, the effectiveness of these interventions can vary due to factors such as local climate and specific project objectives. Here, we used two independent satellite remote sensing datasets, including the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and vegetation optical depth from Ku-band (Ku-VOD), to investigate the vegetation trends in two hotspot regions of EEPs characterized by different climate conditions, i.e., the xeric/semi-xeric Loess Plateau and mesic southwest China. We found diverging vegetation greenness/biomass trend shift patterns in these two regions as a result of the combined effects of EEPs and climate variations, as indicated by changes in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). In the Loess Plateau, where no significant climate variations were observed, NDVI/Ku-VOD increased continuously after the implementation of key EEPs in 2000. Conversely, southwest China has experienced persistent drying since 2000, and vegetation greenness/biomass showed an increasing trend during the initial stages of ecological engineering implementation but subsequently reversed towards a decline due to the continued dry climatic conditions. We used the residual trend method to separate the influence of EEPs from climate variations on vegetation trends and found a positive effect of the ecological management practices in the Loess Plateau, yet a predominantly negative effect in the southwest China region, which means that projects implemented in southwest China did not lead to a long-term improvement in vegetation growth under the given climate conditions in southwest China. This adverse impact suggests that ecological engineering practices could potentially increase the ecosystem's vulnerability to droughts, owing to the increased transpirational water demands introduced by ecological engineering interventions. Our study highlights the importance of considering the expected occurrence and magnitude of climatic variability when implementing large-scale EEPs.

Scattered tree death contributes to substantial forest loss in California.

In recent years, large-scale tree mortality events linked to global change have occurred around the world. Current forest monitoring methods are crucial for identifying mortality hotspots, but systematic assessments of isolated or scattered dead trees over large areas are needed to reduce uncertainty on the actual extent of tree mortality. Here, we mapped individual dead trees in California using sub-meter resolution aerial photographs from 2020 and deep learning-based dead tree detection. We identified 91.4 million dead trees over 27.8 million hectares of vegetated areas (16.7-24.7% underestimation bias when compared to field data). Among these, a total of 19.5 million dead trees appeared isolated, and 60% of all dead trees occurred in small groups ( ≤ 3 dead trees within a 30 × 30 m grid), which is largely undetected by other state-level monitoring methods. The widespread mortality of individual trees impacts the carbon budget and sequestration capacity of California forests and can be considered a threat to forest health and a fuel source for future wildfires.

Contrasting ecosystem vegetation response in global drylands under drying and wetting conditions.

Increasing aridity is one major consequence of ongoing global climate change and is expected to cause widespread changes in key ecosystem attributes, functions, and dynamics. This is especially the case in naturally vulnerable ecosystems, such as drylands. While we have an overall understanding of past aridity trends, the linkage between temporal dynamics in aridity and dryland ecosystem responses remain largely unknown. Here, we examined recent trends in aridity over the past two decades within global drylands as a basis for exploring the response of ecosystem state variables associated with land and atmosphere processes (e.g., vegetation cover, vegetation functioning, soil water availability, land cover, burned area, and vapor-pressure deficit) to these trends. We identified five clusters, characterizing spatiotemporal patterns in aridity between 2000 and 2020. Overall, we observe that 44.5% of all areas are getting dryer, 31.6% getting wetter, and 23.8% have no trends in aridity. Our results show strongest correlations between trends in ecosystem state variables and aridity in clusters with increasing aridity, which matches expectations of systemic acclimatization of the ecosystem to a reduction in water availability/water stress. Trends in vegetation (expressed by leaf area index [LAI]) are affected differently by potential driving factors (e.g., environmental, and climatic factors, soil properties, and population density) in areas experiencing water-related stress as compared to areas not exposed to water-related stress. Canopy height for example, has a positive impact on trends in LAI when the system is stressed but does not impact the trends in non-stressed systems. Conversely, opposite relationships were found for soil parameters such as root-zone water storage capacity and organic carbon density. How potential driving factors impact dryland vegetation differently depending on water-related stress (or no stress) is important, for example within management strategies to maintain and restore dryland vegetation.

A physiology-based Earth observation model indicates stagnation in the global gross primary production during recent decades.

Earth observation-based estimates of global gross primary production (GPP) are essential for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climatic change and other anthropogenic forcing. In this study, we attempt an ecosystem-level physiological approach of estimating GPP using an asymptotic light response function (LRF) between GPP and incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that better represents the response observed at high spatiotemporal resolutions than the conventional light use efficiency approach. Modelled GPP is thereafter constrained with meteorological and hydrological variables. The variability in field-observed GPP, net primary productivity and solar-induced fluorescence was better or equally well captured by our LRF-based GPP when compared with six state-of-the-art Earth observation-based GPP products. Over the period 1982-2015, the LRF-based average annual global terrestrial GPP budget was 121.8 ± 3.5 Pg C, with a detrended inter-annual variability of 0.74 ± 0.13 Pg C. The strongest inter-annual variability was observed in semi-arid regions, but croplands in China and India also showed strong inter-annual variations. The trend in global terrestrial GPP during 1982-2015 was 0.27 ± 0.02 Pg C year-1 , and was generally larger in the northern than the southern hemisphere. Most positive GPP trends were seen in areas with croplands whereas negative trends were observed for large non-cropped parts of the tropics. Trends were strong during the eighties and nineties but levelled off around year 2000. Other GPP products either showed no trends or continuous increase throughout the study period. This study benchmarks a first global Earth observation-based model using an asymptotic light response function, improving simulations of GPP, and reveals a stagnation in the global GPP after the year 2000.

Recent divergence in the contributions of tropical and boreal forests to the terrestrial carbon sink.

Anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) have a large impact on the global terrestrial carbon sink, but this effect is not well characterized according to biogeographical region. Here, using state-of-the-art Earth observation data and a dynamic global vegetation model, we estimate the impact of LULCC on the contribution of biomes to the terrestrial carbon sink between 1992 and 2015. Tropical and boreal forests contributed equally, and with the largest share of the mean global terrestrial carbon sink. CO2 fertilization was found to be the main driver increasing the terrestrial carbon sink from 1992 to 2015, but the net effect of all drivers (CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition, LULCC and meteorological forcing) caused a reduction and an increase, respectively, in the terrestrial carbon sink for tropical and boreal forests. These diverging trends were not observed when applying a conventional LULCC dataset, but were also evident in satellite passive microwave estimates of aboveground biomass. These datasets thereby converge on the conclusion that LULCC have had a greater impact on tropical forests than previously estimated, causing an increase and decrease of the contributions of boreal and tropical forests, respectively, to the growing terrestrial carbon sink.

Forest management in southern China generates short term extensive carbon sequestration.

Land use policies have turned southern China into one of the most intensively managed forest regions in the world, with actions maximizing forest cover on soils with marginal agricultural potential while concurrently increasing livelihoods and mitigating climate change. Based on satellite observations, here we show that diverse land use changes in southern China have increased standing aboveground carbon stocks by 0.11 ± 0.05 Pg C y-1 during 2002-2017. Most of this regional carbon sink was contributed by newly established forests (32%), while forests already existing contributed 24%. Forest growth in harvested forest areas contributed 16% and non-forest areas contributed 28% to the carbon sink, while timber harvest was tripled. Soil moisture declined significantly in 8% of the area. We demonstrate that land management in southern China has been removing an amount of carbon equivalent to 33% of regional fossil CO2 emissions during the last 6 years, but forest growth saturation, land competition for food production and soil-water depletion challenge the longevity of this carbon sink service.

Revealing turning points in ecosystem functioning over the Northern Eurasian agricultural frontier.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 has been a turning point in the World history that left a unique footprint on the Northern Eurasian ecosystems. Conducting large scale mapping of environmental change and separating between naturogenic and anthropogenic drivers is a difficult endeavor in such highly complex systems. In this research a piece-wise linear regression method was used for breakpoint detection in Rain-Use Efficiency (RUE) time series and a classification of ecosystem response types was produced. Supported by earth observation data, field data, and expert knowledge, this study provides empirical evidence regarding the occurrence of drastic changes in RUE (assessment of the timing, the direction and the significance of these changes) in Northern Eurasian ecosystems between 1982 and 2011. About 36% of the study area (3.4 million km(2) ) showed significant (P < 0.05) trends and/or turning points in RUE during the observation period. A large proportion of detected turning points in RUE occurred around the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and in the following years which were attributed to widespread agricultural land abandonment. Our study also showed that recurrent droughts deeply affected vegetation productivity throughout the observation period, with a general worsening of the drought conditions in recent years. Moreover, recent human-induced turning points in ecosystem functioning were detected and attributed to ongoing recultivation and change in irrigation practices in the Volgograd region, and to increased salinization and increased grazing intensity around Lake Balkhash. The ecosystem-state assessment method introduced here proved to be a valuable support that highlighted hotspots of potentially altered ecosystems and allowed for disentangling human from climatic disturbances.

Ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland in West Africa and its relationship with environmental variability.

The Dahra field site in Senegal, West Africa, was established in 2002 to monitor ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland and their responses to climatic and environmental change. This article describes the environment and the ecosystem properties of the site using a unique set of in situ data. The studied variables include hydroclimatic variables, species composition, albedo, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), hyperspectral characteristics (350-1800 nm), surface reflectance anisotropy, brightness temperature, fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (FAPAR), biomass, vegetation water content, and land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon (NEE) and energy. The Dahra field site experiences a typical Sahelian climate and is covered by coexisting trees (~3% canopy cover) and grass species, characterizing large parts of the Sahel. This makes the site suitable for investigating relationships between ecosystem properties and hydroclimatic variables for semiarid savanna ecosystems of the region. There were strong interannual, seasonal and diurnal dynamics in NEE, with high values of ~-7.5 g C m(-2)  day(-1) during the peak of the growing season. We found neither browning nor greening NDVI trends from 2002 to 2012. Interannual variation in species composition was strongly related to rainfall distribution. NDVI and FAPAR were strongly related to species composition, especially for years dominated by the species Zornia glochidiata. This influence was not observed in interannual variation in biomass and vegetation productivity, thus challenging dryland productivity models based on remote sensing. Surface reflectance anisotropy (350-1800 nm) at the peak of the growing season varied strongly depending on wavelength and viewing angle thereby having implications for the design of remotely sensed spectral vegetation indices covering different wavelength regions. The presented time series of in situ data have great potential for dryland dynamics studies, global climate change related research and evaluation and parameterization of remote sensing products and dynamic vegetation models.

Drought footprint on European ecosystems between 1999 and 2010 assessed by remotely sensed vegetation phenology and productivity.

Drought affects more people than any other natural disaster but there is little understanding of how ecosystems react to droughts. This study jointly analyzed spatio-temporal changes of drought patterns with vegetation phenology and productivity changes between 1999 and 2010 in major European bioclimatic zones. The Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used as drought indicator whereas changes in growing season length and vegetation productivity were assessed using remote sensing time-series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Drought spatio-temporal variability was analyzed using a Principal Component Analysis, leading to the identification of four major drought events between 1999 and 2010 in Europe. Correspondence Analysis showed that at the continental scale the productivity and phenology reacted differently to the identified drought events depending on ecosystem and land cover. Northern and Mediterranean ecosystems proved to be more resilient to droughts in terms of vegetation phenology and productivity developments. Western Atlantic regions and Eastern Europe showed strong agglomerations of decreased productivity and shorter vegetation growing season length, indicating that these ecosystems did not buffer the effects of drought well. In a climate change perspective, increase in drought frequency or intensity may result in larger impacts over these ecosystems, thus management and adaptation strategies should be strengthened in these areas of concerns.

Dynamics of cholera outbreaks in Great Lakes region of Africa, 1978-2008.

Cholera outbreaks have occurred in Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya almost every year since 1977-1978, when the disease emerged in these countries. We used a multiscale, geographic information system-based approach to assess the link between cholera outbreaks, climate, and environmental variables. We performed time-series analyses and field investigations in the main affected areas. Results showed that cholera greatly increased during El Nino warm events (abnormally warm El Ninos) but decreased or remained stable between these events. Most epidemics occurred in a few hotspots in lakeside areas, where the weekly incidence of cholera varied by season, rainfall, fluctuations of plankton, and fishing activities. During lull periods, persistence of cholera was explained by outbreak dynamics, which suggested a metapopulation pattern, and by endemic foci around the lakes. These links between cholera outbreaks, climate, and lake environments need additional, multidisciplinary study.