Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have fallen across most of Europe in recent decades. However, substantial risk factor reductions have not been achieved across all Europe. Our aim was to quantify the potential impact of future policy scenarios on diet and lifestyle on CHD mortality in 9 European countries. METHODS: We updated the previously validated IMPACT CHD models in 9 European countries and extended them to 2010-11 (the baseline year) to predict reductions in CHD mortality to 2020(ages 25-74years). We compared three scenarios: conservative, intermediate and optimistic on smoking prevalence (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%); saturated fat intake (1%, 2% and 3% absolute decreases in % energy intake, replaced by unsaturated fats); salt (relative decreases of 10%, 20% and 30%), and physical inactivity (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Under the conservative, intermediate and optimistic scenarios, we estimated 10.8% (95% CI: 7.3-14.0), 20.7% (95% CI: 15.6-25.2) and 29.1% (95% CI: 22.6-35.0) fewer CHD deaths in 2020. For the optimistic scenario, 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 8.9%-11.6%, Salt intake relative reductions of 30% by approximately 5.9-8.9%; 3% reductions in saturated fat intake by 6.3-7.5%, and 15% absolute increases in physical activity by 3.7-5.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Modest and feasible policy-based reductions in cardiovascular risk factors (already been achieved in some other countries) could translate into substantial reductions in future CHD deaths across Europe. However, this would require the European Union to more effectively implement powerful evidence-based prevention policies.

Adiposity has differing associations with incident coronary heart disease and mortality in the Scottish population: cross-sectional surveys with follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: Investigation of the association of excess adiposity with three different outcomes: all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and incident CHD. DESIGN: Cross-sectional surveys linked to hospital admissions and death records. SUBJECTS: 19 329 adults (aged 18-86 years) from a representative sample of the Scottish population. MEASUREMENTS: Gender-stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CHD mortality and incident CHD. Separate models incorporating the anthropometric measurements body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist-hip ratio (WHR) were created adjusted for age, year of survey, smoking status and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: For both genders, BMI-defined obesity (30 kg m(-2)) was not associated with either an increased risk of all-cause mortality or CHD mortality. However, there was an increased risk of incident CHD among the obese men (hazard ratio (HR)=1.78; 95% confidence interval=1.37-2.31) and obese women (HR=1.93; 95% confidence interval=1.44-2.59). There was a similar pattern for WC with regard to the three outcomes; for incident CHD, the HR=1.70 (1.35-2.14) for men and 1.71 (1.28-2.29) for women in the highest WC category (men 102 cm, women 88 cm), synonymous with abdominal obesity. For men, the highest category of WHR (1.0) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.29; 1.04-1.60) and incident CHD (1.55; 1.19-2.01). Among women with a high WHR (0.85) there was an increased risk of all outcomes: all-cause mortality (1.56; 1.26-1.94), CHD mortality (2.49; 1.36-4.56) and incident CHD (1.76; 1.31-2.38). CONCLUSIONS: In this study excess adiposity was associated with an increased risk of incident CHD but not necessarily death. One possibility is that modern medical intervention has contributed to improved survival of first CHD events. The future health burden of increased obesity levels may manifest as an increase in the prevalence of individuals living with CHD and its consequences.

The relationship between body size and mortality in the linked Scottish Health Surveys: cross-sectional surveys with follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist-hip ratio (WHR) and all-cause mortality or cause-specific mortality. DESIGN: Cross-sectional surveys linked to hospital admissions and death records. SUBJECTS: In total, 20,117 adults (aged 18-86 years) from a nationally representative sample of the Scottish population. MEASUREMENTS: Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause, or cause-specific, mortality. The three anthropometric measurements BMI, WC and WHR were the main variables of interest. The following were adjustment variables: age, gender, smoking status, alcohol consumption, survey year, social class and area of deprivation. RESULTS: BMI-defined obesity (≥ 30 kg m(-2)) was not associated with increased risk of mortality (HR = 0.93; 95% confidence interval = 0.80-1.08), whereas the overweight category (25-<30 kg m(-2)) was associated with a decreased risk (0.80; 0.70-0.91). In contrast, the HR for a high WC (men ≥ 102 cm, women ≥ 88 cm) was 1.17 (1.02-1.34) and a high WHR (men ≥ 1, women ≥ 0.85) was 1.34 (1.16-1.55). There was an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality associated with BMI-defined obesity, a high WC and a high WHR categories; the HR estimates for these were 1.36 (1.05-1.77), 1.41 (1.11-1.79) and 1.44 (1.12-1.85), respectively. A low BMI (<18.5 kg m(-2)) was associated with elevated HR for all-cause mortality (2.66; 1.97-3.60), for chronic respiratory disease mortality (3.17; 1.39-7.21) and for acute respiratory disease mortality (11.68; 5.01-27.21). This pattern was repeated for WC but not for WHR. CONCLUSIONS: It might be prudent not to use BMI as the sole measure to summarize body size. The alternatives WC and WHR may more clearly define the health risks associated with excess body fat accumulation. The lack of association between elevated BMI and mortality may reflect the secular decline in CVD mortality.

A survey of horse owners in Great Britain regarding horses in their care. Part 1: Horse demographic characteristics and management.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Information is scarce as to how horses are kept and managed in the general horse population of Great Britain. OBJECTIVES: To characterise the demographics of horses in Great Britain and assess their care (with particular reference to the respiratory system). METHODS: Horse owners were surveyed using a self-administered postal questionnaire. These owners were selected randomly, following geographical stratification, using 2-stage cluster sampling of veterinary practices and their clients. RESULTS: The overall response proportion to the survey was 68.2%. An investigation of nonresponse bias detected minimal differences between responders and nonresponders. A summary of the demographic characteristics, feeding and management of horses in a sample of the general population of Great Britain is presented. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Horses are kept under a great variety of conditions with some potentially exposed to high concentrations of organic dusts associated with stabling. This information is relevant to their health and welfare.

A survey of horse owners in Great Britain regarding horses in their care. Part 2: Risk factors for recurrent airway obstruction.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Recurrent airway obstruction (RAO) is a commonly encountered respiratory condition of horses. Despite this, the epidemiology of this predominately manageable and reversible disease in Great Britain has been largely ignored. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of RAO in the general horse population of Great Britain and to investigate possible risk factors for RAO associated with management or early life. METHODS: Horse owners were surveyed using a self-administered postal questionnaire that contained a risk-screening questionnaire (RSQ) designed to identify horses with RAO. These owners were randomly selected, following geographical stratification, using 2-stage cluster sampling of veterinary practices and their clients. Multilevel, multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate risk factors for RAO in the selected horse population. RESULTS: The estimated true prevalence of RAO in the selected horse population was 14.0% (95%CI 10.7-17.4%). Risk factors for RAO identified in a general horse management logistic regression model included increasing age and exposure to an urbanised environment. Recurrent airway obstruction has long been associated with mature horses while the association with an urbanised environment could be related to different management practices in these areas or possibly air pollution could be involved. The second model associated exposure to hay and respiratory infection in early life with a horse having RAO in later life. Challenges to the respiratory system in early life may be involved in the development of this disease. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Recurrent airway obstruction is a significant health problem in the horse population of Great Britain. This form of epidemiological investigation highlights potential risk factors for the disease.

Effects of changes to the stable environment on the exhalation of ethane, carbon monoxide and hydrogen peroxide by horses with respiratory inflammation.

The aim of this study was to assess the effects of changes to the stable environment on exhaled markers of respiratory inflammation in six horses with clinical histories of recurrent airway obstruction. The horses were maintained for two weeks under conventional stable management (straw bedding and hay) and for two weeks on a reduced-dust regimen (paper bedding and ensiled grass), in a crossover study design. Exhaled ethane and carbon monoxide (CO) and exhaled breath condensate hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) were measured every three days under each regimen. The presence of clinical signs of airway inflammation (nasal discharge and cough) was monitored daily. The reduced-dust regimen was associated with fewer clinical signs of airway inflammation than the conventional regimen. Exhaled ethane and CO were significantly lower on the reduced-dust regimen and these markers were correlated with clinical signs of respiratory inflammation, but exhaled H(2)O(2) was not affected by the management regimen.

Current and future uses of breath analysis as a diagnostic tool.

The analysis of exhaled breath is a potentially useful method for application in veterinary diagnostics. Breath samples can be easily collected from animals by means of a face mask or collection chamber with minimal disturbance to the animal. After the administration of a 13C-labelled compound the recovery of 13C in breath can be used to investigate gastrointestinal and digestive functions. Exhaled hydrogen can be used to assess orocaecal transit time and malabsorption, and exhaled nitric oxide, carbon monoxide and pentane can be used to assess oxidative stress and inflammation. The analysis of compounds dissolved in the aqueous phase of breath (the exhaled breath condensate) can be used to assess airway inflammation. This review summarises the current status of breath analysis in veterinary medicine, and analyses its potential for assessing animal health and disease.