Convergence in simulating global soil organic carbon by structurally different models after data assimilation.

Current biogeochemical models produce carbon-climate feedback projections with large uncertainties, often attributed to their structural differences when simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics worldwide. However, choices of model parameter values that quantify the strength and represent properties of different soil carbon cycle processes could also contribute to model simulation uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of using common observational data in reducing model uncertainty in estimates of global SOC storage. Two structurally different models featuring distinctive carbon pools, decomposition kinetics, and carbon transfer pathways simulate opposite global SOC distributions with their customary parameter values yet converge to similar results after being informed by the same global SOC database using a data assimilation approach. The converged spatial SOC simulations result from similar simulations in key model components such as carbon transfer efficiency, baseline decomposition rate, and environmental effects on carbon fluxes by these two models after data assimilation. Moreover, data assimilation results suggest equally effective simulations of SOC using models following either first-order or Michaelis-Menten kinetics at the global scale. Nevertheless, a wider range of data with high-quality control and assurance are needed to further constrain SOC dynamics simulations and reduce unconstrained parameters. New sets of data, such as microbial genomics-function relationships, may also suggest novel structures to account for in future model development. Overall, our results highlight the importance of observational data in informing model development and constraining model predictions.

Size, distribution, and vulnerability of the global soil inorganic carbon.

Global estimates of the size, distribution, and vulnerability of soil inorganic carbon (SIC) remain largely unquantified. By compiling 223,593 field-based measurements and developing machine-learning models, we report that global soils store 2305 ± 636 (±1 SD) billion tonnes of carbon as SIC over the top 2-meter depth. Under future scenarios, soil acidification associated with nitrogen additions to terrestrial ecosystems will reduce global SIC (0.3 meters) up to 23 billion tonnes of carbon over the next 30 years, with India and China being the most affected. Our synthesis of present-day land-water carbon inventories and inland-water carbonate chemistry reveals that at least 1.13 ± 0.33 billion tonnes of inorganic carbon is lost to inland-waters through soils annually, resulting in large but overlooked impacts on atmospheric and hydrospheric carbon dynamics.

Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction.

Crop production is a large source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3), which poses risks to air quality, human health and ecosystems1-5. However, estimating global NH3 emissions from croplands is subject to uncertainties because of data limitations, thereby limiting the accurate identification of mitigation options and efficacy4,5. Here we develop a machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH3 emission factors globally (5-arcmin resolution) based on a compiled dataset of field observations. We show that global NH3 emissions from rice, wheat and maize fields in 2018 were 4.3 ± 1.0 Tg N yr-1, lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices6-9. Furthermore, spatially optimizing fertilizer management, as guided by the machine learning model, has the potential to reduce the NH3 emissions by about 38% (1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N yr-1) without altering total fertilizer nitrogen inputs. Specifically, we estimate potential NH3 emissions reductions of 47% (44-56%) for rice, 27% (24-28%) for maize and 26% (20-28%) for wheat cultivation, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, we estimate that NH3 emissions could increase by 4.0 ± 2.7% under SSP1-2.6 and 5.5 ± 5.7% under SSP5-8.5 by 2030-2060. However, targeted fertilizer management has the potential to mitigate these increases.

Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage.

Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems1,2. How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain1,3, which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change3,4. It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss5-7. Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways4,6,8-11, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes12,13. Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved7,14,15. Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate.

Overestimated nitrogen loss from denitrification for natural terrestrial ecosystems in CMIP6 Earth System Models.

Denitrification and leaching nitrogen (N) losses are poorly constrained in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we produce a global map of natural soil 15N abundance and quantify soil denitrification N loss for global natural ecosystems using an isotope-benchmarking method. We show an overestimation of denitrification by almost two times in the 13 ESMs of the Sixth Phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6, 73 ± 31 Tg N yr-1), compared with our estimate of 38 ± 11 Tg N yr-1, which is rooted in isotope mass balance. Moreover, we find a negative correlation between the sensitivity of plant production to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and denitrification in boreal regions, revealing that overestimated denitrification in ESMs would translate to an exaggeration of N limitation on the responses of plant growth to elevated CO2. Our study highlights the need of improving the representation of the denitrification in ESMs and better assessing the effects of terrestrial ecosystems on CO2 mitigation.

Isotopic evidence for increased carbon and nitrogen exchanges between peatland plants and their symbiotic microbes with rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations since 15,000 cal. year BP.

Whether nitrogen (N) availability will limit plant growth and removal of atmospheric CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere this century is controversial. Studies have suggested that N could progressively limit plant growth, as trees and soils accumulate N in slowly cycling biomass pools in response to increases in carbon sequestration. However, a question remains over whether longer-term (decadal to century) feedbacks between climate, CO2 and plant N uptake could emerge to reduce ecosystem-level N limitations. The symbioses between plants and microbes can help plants to acquire N from the soil or from the atmosphere via biological N2 fixation-the pathway through which N can be rapidly brought into ecosystems and thereby partially or completely alleviate N limitation on plant productivity. Here we present measurements of plant N isotope composition (δ15 N) in a peat core that dates to 15,000 cal. year BP to ascertain ecosystem-level N cycling responses to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that pre-industrial increases in global atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponded with a decrease in the δ15 N of both Sphagnum moss and Ericaceae when constrained for climatic factors. A modern experiment demonstrates that the δ15 N of Sphagnum decreases with increasing N2 -fixation rates. These findings suggest that plant-microbe symbioses that facilitate N acquisition are, over the long term, enhanced under rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, highlighting an ecosystem-level feedback mechanism whereby N constraints on terrestrial carbon storage can be overcome.

Isotopic constraints confirm the significant role of microbial nitrogen oxides emissions from the land and ocean environment.

Nitrogen oxides (NOx, the sum of nitric oxide (NO) and N dioxide (NO2)) emissions and deposition have increased markedly over the past several decades, resulting in many adverse outcomes in both terrestrial and oceanic environments. However, because the microbial NOx emissions have been substantially underestimated on the land and unconstrained in the ocean, the global microbial NOx emissions and their importance relative to the known fossil-fuel NOx emissions remain unclear. Here we complied data on stable N isotopes of nitrate in atmospheric particulates over the land and ocean to ground-truth estimates of NOx emissions worldwide. By considering the N isotope effect of NOx transformations to particulate nitrate combined with dominant NOx emissions in the land (coal combustion, oil combustion, biomass burning and microbial N cycle) and ocean (oil combustion, microbial N cycle), we demonstrated that microbial NOx emissions account for 24 ± 4%, 58 ± 3% and 31 ± 12% in the land, ocean and global environment, respectively. Corresponding amounts of microbial NOx emissions in the land (13.6 ± 4.7 Tg N yr-1), ocean (8.8 ± 1.5 Tg N yr-1) and globe (22.5 ± 4.7 Tg N yr-1) are about 0.5, 1.4 and 0.6 times on average those of fossil-fuel NOx emissions in these sectors. Our findings provide empirical constraints on model predictions, revealing significant contributions of the microbial N cycle to regional NOx emissions into the atmospheric system, which is critical information for mitigating strategies, budgeting N deposition and evaluating the effects of atmospheric NOx loading on the world.

Role of Organic and Conservation Agriculture in Ammonia Emissions and Crop Productivity in China.

There is an increasing food demand with growing population and limited land for agriculture. Conventional agriculture with nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications, however, is a key source of ammonia (NH3) emissions that cause severe haze pollution and impair human health. Organic and conservation agricultural (OCA) practices are thereby recommended to address these dual challenges; however, whether OCA provides cobenefits for both air quality and crop productivity is controversial. Here, we perform a meta-analysis and machine learning algorithm with data from China, a global hotspot for agricultural NH3 emissions, to quantify the effects of OCA on NH3 emissions, crop yields and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). We find that the effects of OCA depend on soil and climate conditions, and the 40-60% substitution of synthetic fertilizers with livestock manure achieves the maximum cobenefits of enhanced crop production and reduced NH3 emissions. Model forecasts further suggest that the appropriate application of livestock manure, straw return, and no-till could increase grain production up to 59.7 million metric tons (100% of straw return) and reduce maximum US$2.7 billion (60% substitution with livestock manure) in damage costs to human health from NH3 emissions by 2030. Our findings provide data-driven pathways and options for achieving multiple sustainable development goals and improving food systems and air quality in China.

Policy-enabled stabilization of nitrous oxide emissions from livestock production in China over 1978-2017.

Mitigating livestock-related nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions is key for China to meet its 2060 carbon neutrality target. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the magnitude, spatiotemporal variation and drivers of Chinese livestock N2O emissions from 1978 to 2017. We developed scenarios to explore emissions mitigation potential and associated marginal abatement costs and social benefits. The average growth rate of China's livestock N2O emissions increased by 4.6% per year through 2006, falling sharply over 2007-2015 and gradually declining in 2017 due to a slowdown in population and meat-consumption growth rates. We estimate the technical mitigation potential of livestock N2O emissions in 2030 to be 7-21% (or 23.1-70.9 Gg N2O), with implementation costs of US$5.5 billion to US$6.0 billion. Priority regions for intervention were identified in the North China Plain, Northeast Plain and Lianghu Plain. Among mitigation opportunities, anaerobic digestion offers the greatest social benefit, while low crude protein feed is the most cost-effective option.

Human-caused increases in reactive nitrogen burial in sediment of global lakes.

Human activities have increased reactive nitrogen (Nr) input to terrestrial ecosystems compared with the pre-industrial era. However, the fate of such Nr input remains uncertain, leading to missing sink of the global nitrogen budget. By synthesizing records of Nr burial in sediments from 303 lakes worldwide, here we show that 9.6 ± 1.1 Tg N year-1 (Tg = 1012 g) accumulated in inland water sediments from 2000 to 2010, accounting for 3%-5% of global Nr input to the land from combined natural and anthropogenic pathways. The recent Nr burial flux doubles pre-industrial estimates, and Nr burial rate significantly increases with global increases in human population and air temperature. Sediment ratios of C:N decrease after 1950 while N:P ratios increase over time due to increasingly elevated Nr burial and other related processes in lakes. These findings imply that Nr burial in lakes is overlooked as an important global sink of Nr input to terrestrial ecosystems.

A review of carbon farming impacts on nitrogen cycling, retention, and loss.

Soil carbon (C) sequestration in agricultural working lands via soil amendments and management practices is considered a relatively well-tested and affordable approach for removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Carbon farming provides useful benefits for soil health, biomass production, and crop resilience, but the effects of different soil C sequestration approaches on the nitrogen (N) cycle remain controversial. While some C farming practices have been shown to reduce N fertilizer use in some cases, C farming could also impose an unwanted "N penalty" through which soil C gains can only be maintained with additional N inputs, thereby increasing N losses to the environment. We systematically reviewed meta-analysis studies on the impacts of C farming on N cycling in agroecosystems and estimated the cumulative effect of several C farming practices on N cycling. We found that, on average, combined C farming practices significantly reduced nitrous oxide emissions and nitrate leaching from soils, thus inferring both N cycling and climate change benefits. In addition to more widely studied C farming practices that generate organic C, we also discuss silicate rock additions, which offer a pathway to inorganic C sequestration that does not require additional N inputs, framing important questions for future research.

Intensive fertilizer use increases orchard N cycling and lowers net global warming potential.

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer use has simultaneously increased global food production and N losses, resulting in degradation of water quality and climate pollution. A better understanding of N application rates and crop and environmental response is needed to optimize management of agroecosystems. Here we show an orchard agroecosystem with high N use efficiency promoted substantial gains in carbon (C) storage, thereby lowering net global warming potential (GWP). We conducted a 5-year whole-system analysis comparing reduced (224 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and intensive (309 kg N ha-1 yr-1) fertilizer N rates in a California almond orchard. The intensive rate increased net primary productivity (Mg C ha-1) and significantly increased N productivity (kg N ha-1) and net N mineralization (mg N kg-1 soil d-1). Use of 15N tracers demonstrated short and long-term mechanisms of soil N retention. These low organic matter soils (0.3-0.5%) rapidly immobilized fertilizer nitrate within 36 h of N application and 15N in tree biomass recycled back into soil organic matter over five years. Both fertilizer rates resulted in high crop and total N recovery efficiencies of 90% and 98% for the reduced rate, and 72% and 80% for the intensive rate. However, there was no difference in the proportion of N losses to N inputs due to a significant gain in soil total N (TN) in the intensive rate. Higher soil TN significantly increased net N mineralization and a larger gain in soil organic carbon (SOC) from the intensive rate offset nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, leading to significantly lower net GWP of -1.64 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1 compared to -1.22 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1 for the reduced rate. Our study demonstrates increased N cycling and climate mitigation from intensive fertilizer N use in this orchard agroecosystem, implying a fundamentally different result than seen in conventional annual cropping systems.

Isotopic constraints on plant nitrogen acquisition strategies during ecosystem retrogression.

Plant root associations with microbes such as mycorrhizal fungi or N-fixing bacteria enable ecosystems to tap pools of nitrogen (N) that might otherwise be inaccessible, including atmospheric N or N in large soil organic molecules. Such microbially assisted N-foraging strategies may be particularly important in late-successional retrogressive ecosystems where productivity is low and soil nutrients are scarce. Here, we use natural N-stable isotopic composition to constrain pathways of N supplies to different plant functional groups across a well-studied natural soil fertility gradient that includes a highly retrogressive stage. We demonstrate that ectomycorrhizal fungi, ericoid mycorrhizal fungi, and N-fixing bacteria support forest N supplies at all stages of ecosystem succession, from relatively young, N-rich/phosphorus (P)-rich sites, to ancient sites (ca. 500 ky) where both N supplies and P supplies are exceedingly low. Microbially mediated N sources are most important in older ecosystems with very low soil nutrient availability, accounting for 75-96% of foliar N at the oldest, least fertile sites. These isotopically ground findings point to the key role of plant-microbe associations in shaping ecosystem processes and functioning, particularly in retrogressive-phase forest ecosystems.

A world of co-benefits: Solving the global nitrogen challenge.

Nitrogen is a critical component of the economy, food security, and planetary health. Many of the world's sustainability targets hinge on global nitrogen solutions, which, in turn, contribute lasting benefits for: (i) world hunger; (ii) soil, air and water quality; (iii) climate change mitigation; and (iv) biodiversity conservation. Balancing the projected rise in agricultural nitrogen demands while achieving these 21st century ideals will require policies to coordinate solutions among technologies, consumer choice, and socioeconomic transformation.

Bedrock nitrogen weathering stimulates biological nitrogen fixation.

Global ecosystem models suggest that bedrock nitrogen (N) weathering contributes 10-20% of total N inputs to the natural terrestrial biosphere and >38% of ecosystem N supplies in temperate forests specifically. Yet, the role of rock N weathering in shaping ecological processes and biogeochemical fluxes is largely unknown. Here, we show that temperate forest ecosystems underlain by N-rich bedrock exhibit higher free-living N fixation rates than similar forests residing on N-poor parent materials, across sites experiencing a range of climate and tectonic regimes. This seemingly counterintuitive result can be explained by increased accumulation of soil C and P in high bedrock N sites, resulting in increased energy inputs and nutrient supplies to N fixing microorganisms. Our findings advance a novel ecosystem biogeochemical framework that recognizes long-term plant-soil-microbe feedbacks in shaping biogeochemical processes, with potentially widespread implications given the global distribution of bedrock N across Earth's terrestrial biomes.

Control of the Nitrogen Isotope Composition of the Fungal Biomass: Evidence of Microbial Nitrogen Use Efficiency.

Changes in 15N/14N in the soil microbial biomass during nitrogen (N) mineralization have been hypothesized to influence 15N/14N in soil organic matter among ecosystem sites. However, a direct experimental test of this mechanism has not yet been performed. To evaluate the potential control of microbial N mineralization on the natural N isotope composition, we cultured fungi (Aspergillus oryzae) in five types of media of varying C:N ratios of 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 for 4 d, and tracked changes in δ15N in the microbial biomass, NH4+, and dissolved organic N (DON: glycine) over the course of the experiment. High rates of NH4+ excretion from A. oryzae were accompanied by an increase in δ15N in the microbial biomass in low C:N media (i.e., C/N<30). In contrast, NH4+ was strongly retained in higher C/N treatments with only minor (i.e., <1 ‰) changes being detected in δ15N in the microbial biomass. Differences in δ15N in the microbial biomass were attributed to the loss of low-δ15N NH4+ in low, but not high C/N substrates. We also detected a negative linear correlation between microbial nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and Δ15N (δ15N-biomass-δ15N-glycine). These results suggest an isotope effect during NH4+ excretion in relatively N-repleted environments in which microbial NUE is low, which may explain the vertical patterns of organic matter δ15N in soil profiles.