A factorial-analysis-based Bayesian neural network method for quantifying China's CO2 emissions under dual-carbon target.

Energy-structure transformation and CO2-emission reduction are becoming particularly urgent for China and many other countries. Development of effective methods that are capable of quantifying and predicting CO2 emissions to achieve carbon neutrality is desired. This study advances a factorial-analysis-based Bayesian neural network (abbreviated as FABNN) method to reflect the complex relationship between inputs and outputs as well as reveal the individual and interactive effects of multiple factors affecting CO2 emissions. FABNN is then applied to analyzing CO2 emissions of China (abbreviated as CEC), where multiple factors involve in energy (e.g., the consumption of natural gas, CONG), economic (e.g., Gross domestic product, GDP) and social (e.g., the rate of urbanization, ROU) aspects are investigated and 512 scenarios are designed to achieve the national dual carbon targets (i.e., carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060). Comparing to the conventional machine learning methods, FABNN performs better in calibration and validation results, indicating that FABNN is suitable for CEC simulation and prediction. Results disclose that the top three factors affecting CEC under the dual­carbon target are GDP, CONG, and ROU; energy, economic and social contributions are 43.5 %, 34.6 % and 21.9 %, respectively. CEC reaches its carbon peak during 2027-2032 and achieve carbon neutrality during 2053-2057 under all scenarios. Under the optimal scenario (S195), the CO2-emission reduction potential is about 772.2 million tonnes and the consumptions of coal, petroleum and natural gas can be respectively reduced by 3.1 %, 9.9 % and 23.0 % compared to the worst scenario (S466). The results can provide solid support for national energy-structure transformation and CO2-emission reduction to achieve carbon-peak and carbon-neutrality targets.

[Analysis on the use of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis and related factors in men who have sex with men in Qingdao].

Objective: To understand the use of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and analyze related factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Qingdao, and provide a reference for the AIDS prevention and control in this population. Methods: A cross-sectional survey conducted from April 2022 to February 2023. Relying on MSM social groups in Qingdao, a snowball sampling method was applied to recruit research subjects who met the inclusion criteria of age ≥18 years old, having had homosexual anal or oral sex in the past six months, and HIV-negative or infection status unknown. The sample size was estimated at 566. Data on demographic characteristics, sexual behavior characteristics, PEP use, and others of the research subjects was collected through on-site questionnaires. The logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors associated with using PEP. Results: A total of 811 participants were recruited, mainly aged 25-34 (53.6%, 435/811), unmarried (74.7%, 606/811), with an average monthly income of ≥5 000 yuan (52.2%, 423/811), and having lived in Qingdao for ≥10 years (75.6%, 613/811). The proportion of those who knew the HIV status of their sexual partners in the last six months was 67.1% (544/811), and those with HIV-positive partners were 3.6% (29/811). In the last six months, the proportion of participants who had group sex (86.4%, 701/811), unprotected anal sex (98.2%, 796/811), and use of club drugs (80.3%, 651/811) was high. Moreover, 28.4% (230/811) had used PEP. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the factors related to the use of PEP included divorced or widowed (aOR=5.46,95%CI:1.96-15.17), average monthly income ≥5 000 yuan (aOR=2.04,95%CI:1.44-2.89), same-sex sexual orientation (aOR=0.40,95%CI:0.22-0.71), having HIV-positive sexual partners in the last six months (aOR=2.54,95%CI:1.13-5.71) and having been tested for HIV ≥3 times in the last six months (aOR=1.46,95%CI:1.04-2.06). Conclusions: The prevalence of risk behaviors among MSM in Qingdao was high, and the use of PEP was low. In the future, it is essential to increase HIV/AIDS prevention education among MSM, promote MSM to know the HIV status of their sexual partners, and reduce the prevalence of risk behaviors among this population. Additionally, explore medical insurance reimbursement plans for PEP to reduce utilization costs and promote the use of PEP by MSM after HIV exposure occurs as soon as possible.

[A cohort study of HIV infection in club drug abusers among men who have sex with men in Qingdao].

Objective: To understand and analyze the incidence of HIV infection in club drug abusers among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Qingdao and provide a reference for the prevention and intervention of this population. Methods: From March 2017 to July 2022, club drug abusers among MSM who are HIV-negative were recruited by snowball sampling of MSM social organizations in Qingdao, a prospective cohort was established, and a follow-up survey was conducted every six months, with the sample size estimated to be 436. The survey contents included demographic characteristics, sexual characteristics, AIDS knowledge awareness, club drug abuse, HIV testing, and other information. HIV infection was the outcome-dependent variable, and the interval between the recruitment into the cohort and the HIV infection was the time-dependent variable. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to identify the related factors for HIV infection. Results: A total of 987 participants of club drug abusers among MSM were recruited during the baseline survey and 826 eligible participants were enrolled in this cohort. A total of 46 HIV infection cases were found, and the cumulative follow-up time was 1 960.68 person-years. The incidence of HIV infection was 2.35/100 person-years. The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that <30 (aHR=3.04, 95%CI: 1.62-5.71) non-Shandong residents (aHR=2.29,95%CI:1.20-4.39) found their partners through offline (aHR=4.62,95%CI:2.05-10.41), homosexual sexual partners >4 (aHR=3.06,95%CI:1.59-5.88), condom broken during sex (aHR=2.24,95%CI:1.21-4.17) and hemorrhage sexual intercourse (aHR=2.56,95%CI:1.31-5.03) were significantly associated with HIV infection in this cohort. Conclusions: The incidence of HIV infection in club drug abusers among MSM in Qingdao is generally low, but knowledge and practice have separated, and the risk of HIV infection is high. The related factors of HIV infection included younger age, non-Shandong residents, finding their partners offline, multiple sexual partners, condom break during sex, and hemorrhage sexual intercourse; HIV-related behavioral intervention should be strengthened.

[Efficacy of off-pump minimally invasive via a single left intercostal space incision compared with median sternotomy multi-vesselcoronary artery bypass grafting].

Objective: To compare the efficacy of off-pump minimally invasive cardiac surgery (MICS) via a single left intercostal space incision with median sternotomy multi-vesselcoronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods: Patients who were diagnosed with multi-artery coronary artery disease (CAD) in the Ward 10 of the Department of Cardiac Surgery, Beijing Anzhen Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University and underwent CABG from July 2019 to January 2022 were retrospectively collected. All the patients were divided into MICS group and conventional CABG group according to the surgical methods. The perioperative outcomes were compared between thetwo groups, including intraoperative blood loss, postoperative 24 h thoracic drainage volume, ventilation duration, length of stay (LOS) in intensive care unit (ICU) and total LOS in hospital. Intraoperative blood flow of graft vesselswas measured by transit-time flow measurement (TTFM) after vascular anastomosis, and mean flow (MF) and pulsatile index (PI) were compared between the two groups. Results: A total of 444 patients were in the final analysis, with 351 males and 93 females, and the mean age of (62.0±8.9) years. There were 179 patients in MICS group and 265 cases in conventional CABG group, respectively. There were no statistically significant differences in the preoperative profiles between the two groups (all P>0.05) except that younger age [(60.7±9.3) years vs (62.8±8.5) years, P=0.017] and lower proportion of female [10.1% (18/179) vs 28.3% (75/265), P<0.001] were detected in MICS group. Likewise, there was no significant difference in the number of graft vessels between MICS group (3.18±0.74) and conventional CABG group (3.28±0.86) (P=0.234). Compared with those in conventional CABG group, patients in MICS group showed longer operation duration [ (5.10±1.09) h vs (4.33±0.86) h], fewer intraoperative blood loss [500 (200, 700) ml vs 700 (600, 900) ml], fewer postoperative 24 h thoracic drainage volume [300 (200, 400) ml vs 400 (250, 500) ml], shorter postoperative ventilation duration [15.0 (12.0, 17.0) h vs 16.5 (12.5, 19.0) h, P<0.001], LOS in ICU [18.0 (15.0, 20.0) h vs 20.0 (16.0, 23.0) h, P<0.001] and total LOS in hospital [(12.6±2.7) d vs (14.5±3.9) d, P<0.001]. MI and PI of graft vessels were similar between the two groups (both P>0.05). Moreover, there were no significant differences in major perioperative complications (i.e., repeat thoracotomy, incision infection, stroke) and mortality between the two groups (all P>0.05). Conclusion: MICS is an alternative treatment for patients with multi-vessel CAD with better perioperative outcomes compared with conventional CABG.

[Progress in research of strategies of expanding HIV testing in men who have sex with men].

In recent years, HIV infection prevalence in MSM has been in increase in China. HIV testing is the only way to identify HIV-infection, effectively curb the spread of HIV and reduce AIDS-related death risks. At present, the situation of HIV testing in MSM is not satisfactory, and expanding HIV testing is the one of the key measures for AIDS prevention and control in this population. This paper summarizes the role and strategies of expanding HIV testing in MSM in order to provide a reference for the improvement of HIV testing in this population.

[A cohort study of incidence of club drug abuse in men who have sex with men in Qingdao].

Objective: To understand and analyze the incidence of club drug abuse and influencing factors in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Qingdao, and provide reference for the AIDS prevention and intervention in this population. Methods: From March 2017 to July 31, 2022, MSM who did not abuse club drug were recruited by snowball sampling of MSM social organizations in Qingdao, a prospective cohort was established, and a follow-up survey was conducted every 6 months. The survey collected the information about the MSM's demographic characteristics, sexual characteristics, club drug abuse and others. The incidence of club drug abuse was the outcome dependent variable and the interval between the recruitment into the cohort and the incidence of club drug abuse was the time dependent variable. Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify the influencing factors for club drug abuse. Results: A total of 509 MSM were recruited at baseline survey, and 369 eligible MSM were enrolled in this cohort. A total of 62 MSM began to abuse club drug during the study period, and the cumulative follow-up time was 911.54 person-years, the incidence of club drug abuse was 6.80/100 person-years. All the club drug abusers shared drugs with others in the first club drug abuse, and 16.13% (10/62) had mix-use of club drugs. The multivariate Cox proportional risk regression analysis showed that being students (aHR=2.17, 95%CI: 1.15-4.10), receiving no HIV testing or receiving 1 HIV testing during past 6 months (aHR=4.57, 95%CI:1.80-11.60; aHR=5.15, 95%CI: 2.83-9.36), having sex only with regular sexual partners during past 6 months (aHR=4.75,95%CI:2.32-9.75), having more than 4 homosexual partners (aHR=1.70, 95%CI:1.01-2.87) and abuse of club drug of sexual partners during past 6 months (aHR=12.78, 95%CI:3.06-53.35) were significantly associated with club drug abuse in the MSM. Conclusions: The incidence of club drug abuse was at a high level in the MSM cohort in Qingdao, indicating a high risk for HIV infection. Being student, receiving less HIV testing, having sex only with regular sexual partners, having more homosexual partners and abuse of club drug of sexual partners during past 6 months were risk factors for the incidence of club drug abuse in the MSM. Targeted surveillance and intervention measures should be strengthened to reduce the risk of club drug abuse in MSM.

Sustainable management of water-agriculture-ecology nexus system under multiple uncertainties.

The shrinkage and ecological degradation of the Aral Sea resulting from the uncontrolled use of water resources and the unregulated expansion of agriculture activities call for sustainable management of water-agriculture-ecology (WAE) nexus from a basin perspective. However, managers face thorny challenges brought by multiple uncertainties in the management and planning processes. In this study, an interval stochastic fuzzy programming (ISF) method is developed for tackling multiple uncertainties presented as probability distributions, flexible variables and interval parameters. Then, an ISF-WAE model is formulated for Aral Sea Basin, which considers 108 planning scenarios that reflect different food-security and ecology-restoration requirements, as well as risk-response attitudes of decision maker over a long-term planning horizon (2021-2050). Results reveal that for Aral Sea Basin: (i) managers should set strict acreage benchmarks for cereal crops, in which wheat would account for a range of [29.1, 31.2] % of the total agricultural area; (ii) for promoting ecological restoration, the proportion of agricultural water allocation should decrease by a range of [12.7, 16.1] % during the planning horizon; (iii) due to low water requirement and high ecological value of grassland, it is recommended to expand grassland area to improve the sustainability of the Aral Sea Basin in the case of limited water resources.

A factorial stepwise-clustering input-output model for unveiling water-carbon nexus from multi-policy perspectives.

Water-carbon nexus exerts significant influence on environmental sustainability. The demand-side patterns of water-carbon nexus in supply chains have been extensively conducted. However, there is still research gap in unveiling supply-side complex relationships among various sectors from multi-policy perspectives. In this study, a factorial stepwise-clustering input-output (FSCIO) model is developed to uncover the complicated water-carbon nexus accompanied by analyses of multi-element, multi-sector and multi-policy. This is the first time that input-output analysis (IOA), stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) and factorial analysis (FA) are integrated to explore water-carbon nexus. Water-carbon flows along supply chains are tracked through IOA. SCA helps identify key sectors through evaluating the complexities in water-carbon nexus. FA helps examine different supply-side policies (i.e., input- and allocation-oriented policies, abbreviated as IOP and AOP) through quantifying the effects of multiple sectors and their interactions. We find that China's water-carbon characteristics in supply side differ greatly from those in demand side (e.g., construction is a significant final consumer and other service is more prominent as a primary supplier). The impacts of supply-side policies on different sectors vary significantly and AOP is generally better than IOP in the trade-off between water-carbon pressures mitigation and economic development. The effects of multiple sectors and their interactions on water and carbon shouldn't be neglected and the appropriate policy combinations could have good synergistic effects (e.g., IOP on electricity-gas-water supply, and AOP on chemical, machinery and other service). This study not only provides insight into the multifaceted features of China's water-carbon nexus, but also provides guidance for the supply-side policies.

[Application and progress of capture-recapture method in population size estimation].

Capture-recapture method is an economical and straightforward method widely used in fields such as estimating population size and estimating and adjusting incidence or prevalence. This paper reviews the classical capture-recapture method and its improvement and application in population size estimation in referring the subsequent related work.

A fixed-mix stochastic fractional programming method for optimizing agricultural irrigation and hydropower generation in Central Asia.

In this study, a fixed-mix stochastic fractional programming (FSFP) method is developed for balancing the water-allocation conflict between upstream hydropower generation and downstream agricultural irrigation. FSFP has advantages in dealing with ratio-objective problem under uncertainty, reflecting the dynamic and stochastic characteristics over a long-term planning context, as well as analyzing interrelationships between system efficiency and violation risk of water-allocation target. Then, FSFP is firstly applied to Tuyamuyun reservoir in the lower reach of Amu Darya River basin (Central Asia), where multiple scenarios based on different hydropower-generation targets and inflow levels are examined for identifying the complex relationship between hydropower generation and crop irrigation. Major findings and managerial insights can be summarized as: (i) with the reduction of reservoir inflow, water allocation for downstream agricultural irrigation would decrease by 30.4% once the minimum demand is satisfied, and hydropower generation should be higher priority for pursuing higher marginal benefit; (ii) with the shrinking water supply and rising hydropower-generation target, cotton planting should be firstly restrained due to its high water demand and grape planting is encouraged; (iii) under extreme water scarcity (i.e., low and very-low inflow levels), low-level hydropower generation target (i.e., α = 0.45) is desired for meeting the food requirement in the study basin; (iv) for alleviating the water shortage during dry seasons, it is recommended that water storage should be conducted in autumn and winter, and water release for crop irrigation should be implemented during spring and summer. These findings can help managers identify sustainable water-allocation schemes for agricultural irrigation and hydropower generation against water shortage, environmental destruction and energy insecurity in arid regions.

Identifying optimal virtual water management strategy for Kazakhstan: A factorial ecologically-extended input-output model.

Virtual water is an important indicator measuring the amount of water needed from the perspective of consumption, which can help decision makers to identify desired system design and optimal management strategy against water resources shortage. In this study, a novel model named as factorial ecologically-extended input-output model (abbreviated as FEIOM) is developed for virtual water management. FEIOM integrates techniques of input-output model (IOM), ecological network analysis (ENA) and factorial analysis (FA) into a general framework. It is effective to evaluate the virtual water flows, reveal ecological inter-connections in virtual water system (VWS), and identify key water consumption sectors that have significant individual and interactive effects on VWS's performance. FEIOM is then applied to identifying optimal virtual water management strategies for Kazakhstan in Central Asia. The main findings are: (i) Kazakhstan is a net importer of virtual water (reaching up to 46.0 × 109 m3), demonstrating that the national economic structure is reasonable, which can abate the national water scarcity and improve its eco-environmental protection; (ii) the virtual water of agricultural sector is net exporter, where vegetables, fruits and nuts occupy 86% of the total agricultural exports; the massive export of water-intensive products further squeezes the water for other users; (iii) the key factors affecting the national VWS are agriculture > primary manufacturing > advanced manufacturing > services. Therefore, from solving water resources shortage and facilitating sustainable development perspectives, Kazakhstan should stimulate the domestic primary manufacturing productions and improve agriculture and advanced manufacturing water-use efficiencies.

Impacts of climate variations on non-stationarity of streamflow over Canada.

With climate change, understanding and assessing the impact of climate variations on non-stationary changes of streamflow is of importance in the hydrologic and atmospheric sciences. In this study, tempo-spatial and scaling effects in the impacts of 18 climate variations on nonstationary streamflow for 279 watersheds across Canada are explored. Specifically, the change point and trends of streamflow are examined through Pettitt's test and Mann-Kendall test. Spatial patterns of correlations between the climate variations and flow rates over Canada, especially their non-stationarity, are investigated at seasonal and decadal scales. The patterns are also quantified by seven spatial classification algorithms under method uncertainty. A series of findings regarding the impacts are revealed. For instance, nonstationary changes of streamflow exist for approximately 9% of Canadian watersheds and most of them are located in Prairie Provinces and the eastern coast. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Niño 12, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4 pose significant impacts on Canadian streamflow, which vary with watersheds and seasons. The impacts are closely associated with human activities, e.g., significant impacts of climate variations on populated-area streamflow over Canada. Different climatic variations have different time-varying effects on streamflow. All watersheds have obvious clustering characteristics and four spatial patterns are identified, which is insensitive with classification algorithm. These findings are conducive to understanding the hydrological impacts of atmospheric circulation and enhancing the reliability of hydrological prediction.

Development of an integrated multivariate trend-frequency analysis method: Spatial-temporal characteristics of climate extremes under global warming for Central Asia.

Temperature and precipitation are the two most critical climate variables and their extreme states have more severe impacts than average states on both human society and natural ecosystem. In this study, an integrated multivariate trend-frequency analysis (IMTFA) approach is developed for the risk assessment of climate extremes under the global warming. Through incorporating multiple time series analysis techniques (i.e., M-K test, Sen's slope estimator and Pettitt test) and copula function into a general framework, IMTFA is capable not only of analyzing the temporal trends and change points of extreme temperatures and precipitations, but also of quantifying their univariate and multivariate risks. IMTFA is applied to the Central Asia with considering a long-term (1881-2018) observation data. Our findings are: (i) significant wetting and warming trends were occurred in the Central Asia over past one hundred years, where 42.5%, 59.4% and 79.2% stations have change points for extreme precipitations, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively; (ii) the occurrences of extreme climate events show obviously spatial heterogeneity, where the highest risks of meteorological drought, flood and frost events are occurred in the southwest, southeast and northeast regions, respectively; (iii) global warming significantly affects the intensities and frequencies of extreme precipitations and temperatures, and their univariate and multivariate risks are intensified in the most regions of Central Asia. The above findings can provide more valuable information for risk assessment and disaster adaptation of climate extremes in Central Asia.

Assessment of the effects of human activity and natural condition on the outflow of Syr Darya River: A stepwise-cluster factorial analysis method.

Water scarcity causes a series of eco-environmental problems, such as land salinization, biodiversity reduction and food crisis, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the Aral Sea basin. In this study, a stepwise-cluster factorial analysis (SCFA) approach is proposed for assessing the effects of natural condition and human activity on the outflow of Syr Darya River (abbreviated as OSR) that has significant effects on the eco-environmental restoration of the Aral Sea. SCFA coupled stepwise cluster analysis and factorial analysis cannot only reflect the variability of outflow, but also identify the driving factors quantitatively. The results disclose that, in 1960-1991, the dominant factors (affecting the OSR) are upstream inflow (25.77%) > agricultural water use of Uzbekistan (7.21%) > industrial water use of Uzbekistan (4.53%) > agricultural water use of Kazakhstan (3.81%) > Precipitation (3.66%); interactions between upstream inflow and agricultural water use of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and interactions between reservoir and evapotranspiration have the significant effects on the OSR. Results also indicate that, in 1992-2015, the dominant factors that affect the OSR are agricultural water use of Uzbekistan (23.31%) > agricultural water use of Kazakhstan (22.15%) > industrial water use of Uzbekistan (8.31%) > domestic water use of Kazakhstan (4.68%) > agricultural water use of Tajikistan (4.54%) > domestic water use of Uzbekistan (4.41%); the interactions between industrial water use and agricultural water use of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and the interactions between reservoir and upstream inflow have the pivotal effects on OSR. In the future, when the agricultural water use of the basin decrease as 4% and the industry water use of Uzbekistan decrease as 2%, the OSR may recover to the middle level of 1970s. The results help identify the major factors affecting the outflow of Syr Darya River as well as seek an effective approach to restore the eco-environment of Aral Sea basin.

[Influence on physical development of children aged 18 months from HIV-positive mothers for prevention mother to child transmission of HIV].

Objective: To explore influence on physical development of children aged 18 months from HIV-positive mothers for prevention mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, and provide evidence for the improvement PMTCT program. Methods: This retrospective case control study was conducted in 554 HIV negative infants aged 18 months whose HIV positive mothers had received PMTCT services reported through PMTCT system database from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2017 and 1 109 healthy infants born in 2017, whose mothers were healthy, in Lingshan, Luzhai, and Hengxian counties, ranking top three counties with high HIV infection prevalence, in Guangxi. PMTCT data and physical development data such as height, weight and head circumference of children aged 18 months were collected. The physical dysplasia in the infants was defined as at least one of the three main indicators of height, weight and head circumference below the normal range. Results: The number of HIV-positive mother and their infants in the case group were 667 and 554 respectively, and the PMTCT rates were 91.15% (608/667) and 96.57% (535/554) respectively. HIV positive rate, mortality rate and mother to child transmission rate of the infants aged 18 months were 1.44% (8/554), 3.07% (17/554) and 1.91% (8/418) respectively, and the physical examination results of the infants aged 18 months showed that the physical dysplasia rate was 30.51% (169/554). Among the 1 109 infants in the control group, the physical dysplasia rate was 9.83% (109/1 109). The difference between the case group and the control group was significant (P<0.01). Conclusion: The PMTCT rates of HIV positive mother and their children were more than 90.00%, respectively. However, poor physical development rate of infants aged 18 months were more than 30.00%. The possible influence of PMTCT on physical development of the infants aged 18 months of HIV positive mother's needs to be further studied.

A factorial Bayesian copula framework for partitioning uncertainties in multivariate risk inference.

In this study, a factorial Bayesian copula (FBC) method is proposed to quantify parameter uncertainties in copula-based models and then reveal their impacts on hydrologic risk inferences within a multivariate context. In detail, Bayesian inference and factorial analysis are integrated into copula-based multivariate risk models to (1) quantify parameter uncertainties, (ii) reveal their individual and interactive effects, and (iii) identify their detailed contributions to uncertain risk inferences. Streamflow observations at Xiangxi and Wei River basins is China are used to illustrate the applicability of FBC. The results indicate that imprecise parameters in marginal distributions and the dependence structure would lead to extensive uncertainties in predictive joint return periods and failure probabilities. Also, individual and interactive effects of parameters are well revealed through multilevel factorial analysis, and the detailed contributions of one parameter to different failure probabilities under different service time scenarios are identified.

A bi-level chance-constrained programming method for quantifying the effectiveness of water-trading to water-food-ecology nexus in Amu Darya River basin of Central Asia.

Issues of water scarcity, food crisis, and ecological degradation pose great challenges to the sustainable development of Central Asia. In this study, a bi-level chance-constrained programming (BCCP) method is developed for planning water-food-ecology (WFE) nexus system of the Amu Darya River basin, where the efficiency of water-trading mechanism and the impact of uncertain water-availability are examined. This is the first attempt for planning WFE nexus system by incorporating chance-constrained programming (CCP) within a bi-level optimization framework. BCCP can reflect the risk of violating probabilistic constraint under uncertainty as well as balance the tradeoff between two-level decision makers in the WFE nexus system. Under trading scheme, multiple scenarios in association with different food demand, ecological-water requirement, and water availability are examined. Major findings are: (i) compared with that under non-trading, system benefits would increase [3.9, 20.4]% under trading scenarios, disclosing that water trading is an effective mechanism for the study basin; (ii) when food demand increases 10.5%, water allocated to ecological use would decrease [0.9, 2.7]% under all scenarios, revealing that agriculture can squeeze ecological water; (iii) both system benefit and water allocation would increase with p level, implying there is a tradeoff between system benefit and system-failure risk. These findings can gain insight into the interaction between two-level stakeholders and objectives as well as provide decision support for WFE nexus synergetic management.

Optimizing water resources allocation and soil salinity control for supporting agricultural and environmental sustainable development in Central Asia.

In this study, a stochastic-fuzzy-based fractional programming (SFFP) method is advanced for optimizing water-resources allocation and soil-salinity control under uncertainty. The developed method can address ratio objective optimization problems of complex system in association with stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties, which can help gain in-depth analysis of the interrelationships between marginal effectiveness and system reliability. Then, SFFP is applied to an irrigation region in the lower reach of Amu Darya River basin, where linear crop yield-salinity functions and salt-leaching functions are introduced into the modeling formulation for reflecting the complicated interactions among water resources, soil salinity, arable land, and electricity supply. Solutions under 96 scenarios related to different irrigation efficiencies, water availabilities, and electricity supplies have been obtained. Our findings are: i) increased water availability, electricity supply, and irrigation efficiency result in high marginal benefit; ii) irrigation efficiency is the key factor influencing water allocation patterns for crop irrigation and salt-leaching, promotion of which can facilitate mitigating economic and environmental losses in the water-deficit and soil-salinized region; iii) leaching water allocation patterns for soil-salinity washing is related to salinity characters of crops and regions, and boosting drought- and salt-tolerance crop can be effective in adaption to risks of water scarcity and land salinization. Compared to the conventional approaches, SFFP can generate more flexible alternatives and achieve higher marginal effectiveness. These findings can provide effective decision support to identify desired water management strategies under multiple uncertainties for supporting agricultural sustainability in arid regions.

Effluent trading planning and its application in water quality management: A factor-interaction perspective.

In this study, a Bayesian risk-induced interval stochastic modeling framework (BRISF) is proposed for planning effluent trading program among point and nonpoint sources as well as identifying interactions of important trading factors under system risk. BRISF incorporates nutrient fate modeling with soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), Bayesian inference with random walk Metropolis algorithm (RWM), and constraint-violation risk-based two-stage stochastic programming (CRTSP) within a general framework. Bayesian inference is employed for uncertainty analysis of SWAT model parameters and uncertain prediction of nutrient loadings; this process provides the random inputs for optimization process. CRTSP is capable of dealing with multiple uncertainties in modeling effluent trading program as well as system risk of environmental allowance violation. BRISF is applied to a real case of Xiangxihe watershed in China for water quality management. Solutions for optimal trading scheme corresponding to different risk levels are generated. Thousands of scenarios are examined to analyze the individual and interactive effects of trading ratios and treatment rates on trading system. Comparison between cross-industry and intra-industry effluent trading scheme is also conducted. It is proved that cross-industry trading would bring about higher benefit with reduced pollution loading; cross-industry effluent trading scheme would be recommended to achieve optimal water quality management and system benefit.

Ultrasound-guided high-intensity focused ultrasound treatment for abdominal wall endometriosis: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety and efficacy of ultrasound-guided high-intensity focused ultrasound (USgHIFU) for treating abdominal wall endometrioses (AWE). DESIGN: A retrospective study. SETTING: Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology in China. POPULATION: Patients with abdominal wall endometriosis. METHODS: From August 2010 to April 2014, 32 patients with AWE were treated with USgHIFU in our hospital. USgHIFU treatment was performed with the Model JC-200 High Intensity Focused Ultrasound Tumor Therapeutic System. The symptom relief and the adverse effects were evaluated after USgHIFU ablation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: USgHIFU as a new treatment option for patients with AWE. RESULTS: Contrast-enhanced ultrasound showed that all lesions were successfully ablated with USgHIFU. The follow-up results showed that the average volume of AWE lesions at 6 months after USgHIFU was significantly smaller than that before treatment (2.80 ± 0.12 versus 1.33 ± 0.31 cm3 ). The pain scores at 6 months after treatment were significantly lower than those before treatment (6.80 ± 2.64 versus 1.80 ± 0.3). The non-perfused volume (indicative of successful ablation) was measured in all patients immediately after treatment, ranging from 0.9 to 2.1 cm3 (median: 1.6 cm3 ), and the fractional ablation ranged from 87% to 100% (median: 94%). Local oedema was observed in these patients, lasting for 1-3 days only. No severe complications occurred during the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our study, USgHIFU ablation is a safe and effective method for treating AWE. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: As a non-invasive treatment technique, HIFU could be used to treat abdominal wall endometriosis.