Asymmetric mate preference and reproductive interference mediate climate-induced changes in mate availability in a small mammal hybrid zone.

Range expansion and contraction are among the most common biotic responses to changing environmental conditions, yet much is to be learned about the mechanisms that underlie range-edge population dynamics, especially when those areas are points of secondary contact between closely related species. Here, we present field-measured parentage data that document the reproductive outcomes of changes in mate availability at a secondary contact zone between two species of woodrat in the genus Neotoma. Changes in mate availability resulted from drought-driven differential survival between the species and their hybrids. As the availability of conspecific mates declined, rates of hybridization increased, leading to the accumulation of admixed individuals in the zone of contact. Patterns of reproductive success in the wild appear to be the result of a combination of both pre-mating isolation and post-zygotic selection resulting from genomic incompatibilities between the parental lineages. Evidence of asymmetric mate preference between the parental lineages came from both skewed reproductive output in the field and laboratory preference trials. Moreover, partial genomic incompatibility was evident from the near-zero reproductive success of F1 males and because nearly all surviving hybrids had one pure parent. Nonetheless, high reproductive success of F1 females and backcrossing in both parental directions allow for introgression between the parental species. These findings reveal how climate change may alter evolutionary outcomes for species at the edge of their ranges through an interplay of behavioral, demographic, and genetic mechanisms.

Testosterone identifies hatchling sex for Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii).

The threatened Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) exhibits temperature-dependent sex determination, and individuals appear externally sexually monomorphic until sexual maturity. A non-surgical sex identification method that is suitable for a single in situ encounter with hatchlings is essential for minimizing handling of wild animals. We tested (1) whether plasma testosterone quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay differentiated males from females in 0-3 month old captive hatchlings, and (2) whether an injection of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) differentially elevates testosterone in male hatchlings to aid in identifying sex. We validated sex by ceolioscopic (laparoscopic) surgery. We then fit the testosterone concentrations to lognormal distributions and identified the concentration below which individuals are more likely female, and above which individuals are more likely male. Using a parametric bootstrapping procedure, we estimated a 0.01-0.04% misidentification rate for naïve testosterone samples, and a 1.26-1.39% misidentification rate for challenged (post-FSH injection) testosterone samples. Quantification of plasma testosterone concentration from small volume (0.1 mL) blood samples appears to be a viable, highly accurate method to identify sex of 0-3 month old hatchlings and could be a valuable tool for conservation measures and investigation of trends and variation in sex ratios for in situ wild nests.

A big data-model integration approach for predicting epizootics and population recovery in a keystone species.

Infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global health and biodiversity. Yet, predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics remains challenging. Disease outbreaks result from complex nonlinear interactions among a large collection of variables that rarely adhere to the assumptions of parametric regression modeling. We adopted a nonparametric machine learning approach to model wildlife epizootics and population recovery, using the disease system of colonial black-tailed prairie dogs (BTPD, Cynomys ludovicianus) and sylvatic plague as an example. We synthesized colony data between 2001 and 2020 from eight USDA Forest Service National Grasslands across the range of BTPDs in central North America. We then modeled extinctions due to plague and colony recovery of BTPDs in relation to complex interactions among climate, topoedaphic variables, colony characteristics, and disease history. Extinctions due to plague occurred more frequently when BTPD colonies were spatially clustered, in closer proximity to colonies decimated by plague during the previous year, following cooler than average temperatures the previous summer, and when wetter winter/springs were preceded by drier summers/falls. Rigorous cross-validations and spatial predictions indicated that our final models predicted plague outbreaks and colony recovery in BTPD with high accuracy (e.g., AUC generally >0.80). Thus, these spatially explicit models can reliably predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics and subsequent population recovery in a highly complex host-pathogen system. Our models can be used to support strategic management planning (e.g., plague mitigation) to optimize benefits of this keystone species to associated wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. This optimization can reduce conflicts among different landowners and resource managers, as well as economic losses to the ranching industry. More broadly, our big data-model integration approach provides a general framework for spatially explicit forecasting of disease-induced population fluctuations for use in natural resource management decision-making.

A comparison of non-surgical methods for sexing young gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus).

Many turtle species have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), raising the prospect that climate change could impact population dynamics by altering sex ratios. Understanding how climate change will affect populations of animals with TSD requires a reliable and minimally invasive method of identifying the sexes of young individuals. This determination is challenging in many turtles, which often lack conspicuous external sexual dimorphism until years after hatching. Here, we explore four alternatives for sexing three age classes of captive-reared young gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus), a terrestrial turtle of conservation concern native to the southeastern United States: (1) naive testosterone levels, (2) testosterone levels following a follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) challenge, (3) linear morphological measurements, and (4) geometric morphometrics. Unlike some other turtle species, male and female neonatal gopher tortoises have overlapping naive testosterone concentration distributions, justifying more complicated methods. We found that sex of neonates (<7 days old) is best predicted by a "random forest" machine learning model with naive testosterone levels and morphological measurements (8% out-of-bag error). Sex of hatchlings (4-8 months old) was predicted with 11% error using a simple threshold on naive testosterone levels, or with 4% error using a simple threshold on post-FSH testosterone levels. Sex of juveniles (approximately 3.5 years old) was perfectly predicted using a simple threshold on naive testosterone levels. Sexing hatchlings at >4 months of age is the easiest and most reliable non-surgical method for sex identification. Given access to a rearing facility and equipment to perform hormone assays, these methods have the potential to supplant laparoscopic surgery as the method of choice for sexing young gopher tortoises.

Genetically informed captive breeding of hybrids of an extinct species of Galapagos tortoise.

Hybridization poses a major challenge for species conservation because it threatens both genetic integrity and adaptive potential. Yet, hybridization can occasionally offer unprecedented opportunity for species recovery if the genome of an extinct taxon is present among living hybrids such that selective breeding could recapture it. We explored the design elements for establishing a captive-breeding program for Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.) built around individuals with admixed ancestry involving an extinct species. The target individuals were hybrids between the extinct species from Floreana Island, C. niger, and an extant species, C. becki, which were recently found in the endemic range of C. becki, from Wolf Volcano on Isabela Island. We combined genotypic data from 35 tortoises with high ancestry from C. niger with forward-in-time simulations to explore captive breeding strategies that maximized overall genetic diversity and ancestry from C. niger while accommodating resource constraints, species biology, and the urgency to return tortoises to Floreana Island for facilitating ecosystem restoration. Overall genetic diversity was maximized when in the simulation tortoises were organized in relatively small breeding groups. Substantial amounts of the C. niger genome were captured despite limited resources available for selectively breeding tortoises in captivity. Genetic diversity was maximized when captive-bred offspring were released to the wild rather than being used as additional breeders. Our results provide genetic-based and practical guidance on the inclusion of hybrids with genomic representation from extinct taxa into species restoration programs and informs the ongoing debate on the value of hybrids in biodiversity conservation.

Reproducción en Cautiverio Informada Genéticamente de Híbridos de una Especie Extinta de Tortuga de las Galápagos Resumen La hibridación representa un obstáculo importante para la conservación de especies ya que amenaza tanto a la integridad genética como al potencial adaptativo. Aun así, la hibridación ocasionalmente puede ofrecer una oportunidad sin precedentes para la recuperación de una especie si el genoma de un taxón extinto está presente entre los híbridos vivientes de tal manera que la reproducción selectiva pudiera recuperarlo. Exploramos los elementos de diseño para el establecimiento de un programa de reproducción en cautiverio de la tortuga de las Galápagos (Chelonoidis spp.) construido en torno a los individuos con linajes mixtos que incluyeran una especie extinta. Los individuos fueron los híbridos de la especie extinta en la Isla Floreana, C. niger, y la especie viviente C. becki, encontrados recientemente en la distribución geográfica endémica de la segunda especie en el Volcán Wolf (Isla Isabela). Combinamos los datos genotípicos de 35 tortugas con un linaje cargado de C. niger usando simulaciones futuras de la descendencia generada por el programa para explorar las estrategias de reproducción en cautiverio que maximizaran en general la diversidad genética y el linaje de C. niger a la vez que se ajustaba a las restricciones de recursos, la biología de la especie y la urgencia por regresar las tortugas a la Isla Floreana para facilitar la restauración del ecosistema. En general, la diversidad genética se maximizó cuando en la simulación las tortugas estuvieron organizadas en grupos de reproducción relativamente pequeños y cuando cantidades sustanciales del genoma de C. niger fueron capturados con base en los recursos disponibles para reproducir selectivamente a las tortugas en cautiverio. La diversidad genética se vio especialmente maximizada cuando las crías reproducidas en cautiverio fueron liberadas en lugar de ser utilizadas como reproductoras adicionales. Nuestros resultados proporcionan una guía práctica y basada en la genética para la inclusión de híbridos con representación genómica de un taxón extinto en los programas de restauración de especies. Cuando incorporamos a los híbridos con diversidad genética que previamente se creía perdida en los programas con el propósito de la reintroducción de especies, nuestro estudio informa al debate continuo sobre el valor de los híbridos para la conservación de la biodiversidad.

Author Correction: Identification of Genetically Important Individuals of the Rediscovered Floreana Galápagos Giant Tortoise (Chelonoidis elephantopus) Provides Founders for Species Restoration Program.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.

Differential Effects of Climate on Survival Rates Drive Hybrid Zone Movement.

Climate change has been implicated as driving shifts of hybridizing species' range limits [1, 2]. Whether and how much hybrid zones move depends on the relative fitness of hybridzing species under changing conditions [3, 4]. However, fitness is rarely linked to both climatic conditions and movement of hybrid zones, such that the relationship between climate change and hybrid zone dynamics remains tenuous [5]. Here we report how interactions between climate (seasonal precipitation) and competitor densities result in steep differentials in survival, which in turn drive hybrid zone movement for two woodrat species (Neotoma fuscipes and N. macrotis) in central California, USA. Using 6 years of capture-mark-recapture data, we found that the smaller-bodied species, N. macrotis, and hybrids had survival advantages over the larger-bodied N. fuscipes in the contact region during dry winters and wet springs. This pattern of differential survival, with N. macrotis having a consistent advantage over N. fuscipes during our study period, matched the spatial dynamics of the hybrid zone, which moved steadily north into N. fuscipes territory, with its estimated center moving ∼150 m north in 6 years. Our findings provide a unique demonstration of range movements emerging from a complex interplay between climate and competition. Although all study site areas experienced the same climatic conditions, competitive effects created a complex spatial pattern of survival differentials, which in turn influenced hybrid zone movement. Characterization of fitness differentials derived from replicated demographic studies of contact regions between competitors should greatly improve our ability to understand and forecast climate-driven range dynamics.

Identification of Genetically Important Individuals of the Rediscovered Floreana Galápagos Giant Tortoise (Chelonoidis elephantopus) Provide Founders for Species Restoration Program.

Species are being lost at an unprecedented rate due to human-driven environmental changes. The cases in which species declared extinct can be revived are rare. However, here we report that a remote volcano in the Galápagos Islands hosts many giant tortoises with high ancestry from a species previously declared as extinct: Chelonoidis elephantopus or the Floreana tortoise. Of 150 individuals with distinctive morphology sampled from the volcano, genetic analyses revealed that 65 had C. elephantopus ancestry and thirty-two were translocated from the volcano's slopes to a captive breeding center. A genetically informed captive breeding program now being initiated will, over the next decades, return C. elephantopus tortoises to Floreana Island to serve as engineers of the island's ecosystems. Ironically, it was the haphazard translocations by mariners killing tortoises for food centuries ago that created the unique opportunity to revive this "lost" species today.

Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea-level rise.

Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present-day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low-lying coasts from CNS planning could include coastal ecosystems in regional conservation strategies.

Coastal Vertebrate Exposure to Predicted Habitat Changes Due to Sea Level Rise.

Sea level rise (SLR) may degrade habitat for coastal vertebrates in the Southeastern United States, but it is unclear which groups or species will be most exposed to habitat changes. We assessed 28 coastal Georgia vertebrate species for their exposure to potential habitat changes due to SLR using output from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model and information on the species' fundamental niches. We assessed forecasted habitat change up to the year 2100 using three structural habitat metrics: total area, patch size, and habitat permanence. Almost all of the species (n = 24) experienced negative habitat changes due to SLR as measured by at least one of the metrics. Salt marsh and ocean beach habitats experienced the most change (out of 16 categorical land cover types) across the three metrics and species that used salt marsh extensively (rails and marsh sparrows) were ranked highest for exposure to habitat changes. Species that nested on ocean beaches (Diamondback Terrapins, shorebirds, and terns) were also ranked highly, but their use of other foraging habitats reduced their overall exposure. Future studies on potential effects of SLR on vertebrates in southeastern coastal ecosystems should focus on the relative importance of different habitat types to these species' foraging and nesting requirements. Our straightforward prioritization approach is applicable to other coastal systems and can provide insight to managers on which species to focus resources, what components of their habitats need to be protected, and which locations in the study area will provide habitat refuges in the face of SLR.

Demographic outcomes and ecosystem implications of giant tortoise reintroduction to Española Island, Galapagos.

Restoration of extirpated species via captive breeding has typically relied on population viability as the primary criterion for evaluating success. This criterion is inadequate when species reintroduction is undertaken to restore ecological functions and interactions. Herein we report on the demographic and ecological outcomes of a five-decade-long population restoration program for a critically endangered species of "ecosystem engineer": the endemic Española giant Galapagos tortoise (Chelonoidis hoodensis). Our analysis of complementary datasets on tortoise demography and movement, tortoise-plant interactions and Española Island's vegetation history indicated that the repatriated tortoise population is secure from a strictly demographic perspective: about half of tortoises released on the island since 1975 were still alive in 2007, in situ reproduction is now significant, and future extinction risk is low with or without continued repatriation. Declining survival rates, somatic growth rates, and body condition of repatriates suggests, however, that resources for continued population growth are increasingly limited. Soil stable carbon isotope analyses indicated a pronounced shift toward woody plants in the recent history of the island's plant community, likely a legacy of changes in competitive relations between woody and herbaceous plants induced by now-eradicated feral goats and prolonged absence of tortoises. Woody plants are of concern because they block tortoise movement and hinder recruitment of cactus--a critical resource for tortoises. Tortoises restrict themselves to remnant cactus patches and areas of low woody plant density in the center of the island despite an apparent capacity to colonize a far greater range, likely because of a lack of cactus elsewhere on the island. We conclude that ecosystem-level criteria for success of species reintroduction efforts take much longer to achieve than population-level criteria; moreover, reinstatement of endangered species as fully functioning ecosystem engineers may often require large-scale habitat restoration efforts in concert with population restoration.

Equivalency of Galápagos giant tortoises used as ecological replacement species to restore ecosystem functions.

Loss of key plant-animal interactions (e.g., disturbance, seed dispersal, and herbivory) due to extinctions of large herbivores has diminished ecosystem functioning nearly worldwide. Mitigating for the ecological consequences of large herbivore losses through the use of ecological replacements to fill extinct species' niches and thereby replicate missing ecological functions has been proposed. It is unknown how different morphologically and ecologically a replacement can be from the extinct species and still provide similar functions. We studied niche equivalency between 2 phenotypes of Galápagos giant tortoises (domed and saddlebacked) that were translocated to Pinta Island in the Galápagos Archipelago as ecological replacements for the extinct saddlebacked giant tortoise (Chelonoidis abingdonii). Thirty-nine adult, nonreproductive tortoises were introduced to Pinta Island in May 2010, and we observed tortoise resource use in relation to phenotype during the first year following release. Domed tortoises settled in higher, moister elevations than saddlebacked tortoises, which favored lower elevation arid zones. The areas where the tortoises settled are consistent with the ecological conditions each phenotype occupies in its native range. Saddlebacked tortoises selected areas with high densities of the arboreal prickly pear cactus (Opuntia galapageia) and mostly foraged on the cactus, which likely relied on the extinct saddlebacked Pinta tortoise for seed dispersal. In contrast, domed tortoises did not select areas with cactus and therefore would not provide the same seed-dispersal functions for the cactus as the introduced or the original, now extinct, saddlebacked tortoises. Interchangeability of extant megaherbivores as replacements for extinct forms therefore should be scrutinized given the lack of equivalency we observed in closely related forms of giant tortoises. Our results also demonstrate the value of trial introductions of sterilized individuals to test niche equivalency among candidate analog species.