Health and Economic Benefits of Complying With the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines for Particulate Matter in Nine Major Latin American Cities.

Objectives: This study aims to estimate the short-term preventable mortality and associated economic costs of complying with the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines (AQGs) limit values for PM10 and PM2.5 in nine major Latin American cities. Methods: We estimated city-specific PM-mortality associations using time-series regression models and calculated the attributable mortality fraction. Next, we used the value of statistical life to calculate the economic benefits of complying with the WHO AQGs limit values. Results: In most cities, PM concentrations exceeded the WHO AQGs limit values more than 90% of the days. PM10 was found to be associated with an average excess mortality of 1.88% with concentrations above WHO AQGs limit values, while for PM2.5 it was 1.05%. The associated annual economic costs varied widely, between US$ 19.5 million to 3,386.9 million for PM10, and US$ 196.3 million to 2,209.6 million for PM2.5. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that there is an urgent need for policymakers to develop interventions to achieve sustainable air quality improvements in Latin America. Complying with the WHO AQGs limit values for PM10 and PM2.5 in Latin American cities would substantially benefits for urban populations.

Análisis de la carga de enfermedad atribuible a los factores de riesgo ambientales en México en el período 1990-2021. Identificación de avances, rezagos y emergencias / Analysis of the burden of disease attributable to environmental risk factors in Mexico in the 1990-2021 period. Identification of advances, lags and emergencies

Resumen Antecedentes: Se estima que los factores de riesgo ambientales (FRA) fueron responsables en 2019 de nueve millones de muertes en el mundo. Objetivo: A partir de datos del estudio Global Burden of Disease, se analizaron indicadores de pérdida de salud asociada a la exposición a FRA en México. Material y métodos: Se analizaron números absolutos y porcentajes poblacionales de muertes y años de vida saludable (AVISA) perdidos según sexo atribuidos a FRA seleccionados en los ámbitos nacional y estatal, así como las tendencias estandarizadas por edad de 1990 a 2021. Resultados: En 2021, la contaminación por material particulado en ambiente exterior mostró la mayor mortalidad y AVISA perdidos por los FRA seleccionados (42.2 y 38.1 %, respectivamente), seguida de la exposición a plomo (20.6 y 13.4 %) y temperatura baja (19.8 y 12.3 %). Ambos indicadores han disminuido en todos los FRA seleccionados, en magnitudes diferentes entre 1991 y 2021, excepto la temperatura alta. Conclusiones: A pesar de las disminuciones en los últimos 32 años, el material particulado en ambiente exterior mostró la mayor mortalidad y AVISA perdidos, seguido de la exposición a plomo. Es fundamental fortalecer las políticas de calidad del aire y exposición a plomo en México.

Abstract Background: It is estimated that environmental risk factors (ERF) were responsible for nine million deaths worldwide in 2019. Objective: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study, indicators of health loss associated with exposure to ERF in Mexico were analyzed. Material and methods: Absolute numbers and population percentages of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost attributed to selected ERFs were analyzed at the national and state level and by sex, as well as age-standardized trends from 1990 to 2021. Results: In 2021, ambient particulate matter pollution showed the highest mortality and DALYs lost attributed to selected ERFs (42.2 and 38.1% respectively), followed by lead exposure (20.6 and 13.4%) and low temperature (19.8 and 12.3%). Both indicators have decreased for all selected ERAs by different magnitudes between 1991 and 2021, except for high temperature. Conclusions: Despite decreases in the last 32 years, outdoor environment particulate matter showed the highest mortality and DALYs lost, followed by lead exposure. It is essential to strengthen air quality and lead exposure policies in Mexico.

Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries. METHODS: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. RESULTS: Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6-7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2-11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1-14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5-1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1-5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7-8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively. DISCUSSION: We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.

Analysis of the burden of disease attributable to environmental risk factors in Mexico in the 1990-2021 period. Identification of advances, lags and emergencies.

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that environmental risk factors (ERF) were responsible for nine million deaths worldwide in 2019. OBJECTIVE: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study, indicators of health loss associated with exposure to ERF in Mexico were analyzed. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Absolute numbers and population percentages of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost attributed to selected ERFs were analyzed at the national and state level and by sex, as well as age-standardized trends from 1990 to 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, ambient particulate matter pollution showed the highest mortality and DALYs lost attributed to selected ERFs (42.2 and 38.1% respectively), followed by lead exposure (20.6 and 13.4%) and low temperature (19.8 and 12.3%). Both indicators have decreased for all selected ERAs by different magnitudes between 1991 and 2021, except for high temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Despite decreases in the last 32 years, outdoor environment particulate matter showed the highest mortality and DALYs lost, followed by lead exposure. It is essential to strengthen air quality and lead exposure policies in Mexico.

ANTECEDENTES: Se estima que los factores de riesgo ambientales (FRA) fueron responsables en 2019 de nueve millones de muertes en el mundo. OBJETIVO: A partir de datos del estudio Global Burden of Disease, se analizaron indicadores de pérdida de salud asociada a la exposición a FRA en México. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se analizaron números absolutos y porcentajes poblacionales de muertes y años de vida saludable (AVISA) perdidos según sexo atribuidos a FRA seleccionados en los ámbitos nacional y estatal, así como las tendencias estandarizadas por edad de 1990 a 2021. RESULTADOS: En 2021, la contaminación por material particulado en ambiente exterior mostró la mayor mortalidad y AVISA perdidos por los FRA seleccionados (42.2 y 38.1 %, respectivamente), seguida de la exposición a plomo (20.6 y 13.4 %) y temperatura baja (19.8 y 12.3 %). Ambos indicadores han disminuido en todos los FRA seleccionados, en magnitudes diferentes entre 1991 y 2021, excepto la temperatura alta. CONCLUSIONES: A pesar de las disminuciones en los últimos 32 años, el material particulado en ambiente exterior mostró la mayor mortalidad y AVISA perdidos, seguido de la exposición a plomo. Es fundamental fortalecer las políticas de calidad del aire y exposición a plomo en México.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe.

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: -0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29-3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76-4.50) of total deaths for Q1-Q4 (first quartile-fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25-9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: -0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.

Short term exposure to ambient air pollutants and cardiovascular emergency department visits in Mexico city.

Available data on the acute cardiovascular effect of ambient air pollution (AAP) in Latin America is limited considering that over 80% of its 1 billion inhabitants live in urban settlements with poor air quality. The study aim was to evaluate the association between Cardiovascular Emergency Department Visits (CEDVs) and AAP in Mexico City from 2016 to 2019 using generalized additive models with distributed lags to examine the percentage change of CEDVs and a backward approach of time-series model to calculate attributable fractions. A total of 48,891 CEDVs were recorded in a period of 1019 days. We estimated a significant percentage increase for each 10 µg/m3 of PM10 at Lag0-5 (2.8%, 95%CI 0.6-5.0), PM2.5 at Lag0-6 (3.7%, 95%CI 0.1-7.6), O3 at Lag0-5 (1.1%, 95%CI 0.2-2.0), NO2 at Lag0-4 (2.5%, 95%CI 0.3-4.7) and for each 1 mg/m3 of CO at Lag0 (6.6%, 95%CI 0.3-13.2). Overall, 10.3% of CEDVs in Mexico City may be related to PM10 exposure, 9.5% to PM2.5, 10.3% to O3, 11% to NO2 and 5.7% to CO. AAP significantly increase cardiovascular morbidity impacting on emergency medical services.

Differential Mortality Risks Associated With PM2.5 Components: A Multi-Country, Multi-City Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality. METHODS: We applied a 2-stage analysis on data collected from 210 locations in 16 countries. In the first stage, we estimated location-specific relative risks (RR) for mortality associated with daily total PM2.5 through time series regression analysis. We then pooled these estimates in a meta-regression model that included city-specific logratio-transformed proportions of seven PM2.5 components as well as meta-predictors derived from city-specific socio-economic and environmental indicators. RESULTS: We found associations between RR and several PM2.5 components. Increasing the ammonium (NH4+) proportion from 1% to 22%, while keeping a relative average proportion of other components, increased the RR from 1.0063 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.0030, 1.0097) to 1.0102 (95% CI = 1.0070, 1.0135). Conversely, an increase in nitrate (NO3-) from 1% to 71% resulted in a reduced RR, from 1.0100 (95% CI = 1.0067, 1.0133) to 1.0037 (95% CI = 0.9998, 1.0077). Differences in composition explained a substantial part of the heterogeneity in PM2.5 risk. CONCLUSIONS: These findings contribute to the identification of more hazardous emission sources. Further work is needed to understand the health impacts of PM2.5 components and sources given the overlapping sources and correlations among many components.

Health and Economic Impacts Assessment of O3 Exposure in Mexico.

Health effects related to exposure to air pollution such as ozone (O3) have been documented. The World Health Organization has recommended the use of the Sum of O3 Means Over 35 ppb (SOMO35) to perform Health Impact Assessments (HIA) for long-term exposure to O3. We estimated the avoidable mortality associated with long-term exposure to tropospheric O3 in 14 cities in Mexico using information for 2015. The economic valuation of avoidable deaths related to SOMO35 exposure was performed using the willingness to pay (WTP) and human capital (HC) approaches. We estimated that 627 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 227-1051) from respiratory diseases associated with the exposure to O3 would have been avoided in people over 30 years in the study area, which confirms the public health impacts of ambient air pollution. The avoidable deaths account for almost 1400 million USD under the WTP approach, whilst the HC method yielded a lost productivity estimate of 29.7 million USD due to premature deaths. Our findings represent the first evidence of the health impacts of O3 exposure in Mexico, using SOMO35 metrics.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations.

BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25°â€ˆ× 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 µg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. FINDINGS: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. INTERPRETATION: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Prenatal PM2.5 exposure and neurodevelopment at 2 years of age in a birth cohort from Mexico city.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported that air pollution exposure may have neurotoxic properties. OBJECTIVE: To examine longitudinal associations between prenatal particles less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) exposure and neurodevelopment during the first two years of children's life. METHODS: Analysis was conducted in PROGRESS, a longitudinal birth cohort between 2007 and 2013 in Mexico City. We used satellite data to predict daily PM2.5 concentrations at high spatial resolution. Multivariate mixed-effect regression models were adjusted to examine cognitive, language and motor scores in children up to 24 months of age (n = 740) and each trimester-specific and whole pregnancy exposure to PM2.5. RESULTS: Models adjusted by child sex, gestational age, birth weight, smoking and mother's IQ, showed that each increase of 1 µg/m3 of PM2.5 was associated with a decreased language function of -0.38 points (95% CI: -0.77, -0.01). PM2.5 exposure at third trimester of pregnancy contributed most to the observed association. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that language development up to 24 months of age may be particularly sensitive to PM2.5 exposure during pregnancy.

Revisión rápida de los efectos de la variación de la temperatura y la humedad en la morbilidad y mortalidad por Covid-19 / Rapid review of the effects of temperature and humidity variation on the Covid-19 morbidity and mortality

Resumen: Objetivo: Resumir y analizar la evidencia de la asociación entre Covid-19 y factores climáticos. Material y métodos: Se utilizó la metodología de revisiones rápidas de Cochrane. Se buscaron artículos publicados del 1 de enero al 27 de abril de 2020 en una base de datos académica y preprints. Los títulos y resúmenes fueron revisados por dos investigadores y los textos completos por cinco investigadores. Resultados: De 354 artículos identificados, 26 cumplieron los criterios de elegibilidad establecidos. De éstos, 20 observaron una asociación inversa. Al evaluar su calidad, nueve calificaron con validez moderada, porque si bien ajustaron por covariables en el análisis, son estudios ecológicos. Conclusiones: A pesar de la homogeneidad de resultados, los factores climáticos explican un porcentaje pequeño de la variación de Covid-19. Son necesarios estudios con periodo de análisis más largo que capten tendencia y estacionalidad e incluyan factores de riesgo individuales.

Abstract: Objective: To summarize and analyze the evidence of the association between Covid-19 and climatic factors Materials and methods: We used the Cochrane rapid review methodology. An academic database and preprints were examined with the searches restricted from January 1 to April 27. Titles and abstracts were reviewed by two researchers and full texts were reviewed by the five authors. Results: We identified 354 articles, 26 met the established eligibility criteria. Of these, 20 reported an inverse association. When evaluating their quality, nine were qualified with moderate validity, this is because they adjusted for covariates in the analysis, but they are ecological studies. Conclusions: Despite homogeneity of results, climatic factors explained a small percentage of Covid-19 incidence variability. Future studies need to include individual risk factors and longer period of data to capture trend or seasonality.

Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. METHODS: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. FINDINGS: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99. INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health. FUNDING: Korea Ministry of Environment.

Mortalidad aguda asociada con partículas suspendidas finas y gruesas en habitantes de la Zona Metropolitana de Monterrey / Mortality associated with fine and coarse suspended particles, in inhabitants of Monterrey Metropolitan Area

Resumen Objetivo: Estimar el riesgo de mortalidad asociado con la exposición a partículas finas (PM2.5) y gruesas (PM2.5-10) en la Zona Metropolitana de Monterrey (ZMM). Material y métodos: Estudio ecológico con análisis retrospectivo de series de tiempo (2004-2014) de mortalidad total y específica diaria, y promedio de PM2.5y PM2.5-10. Modelos aditivos generalizados Poisson con rezagos distribuidos ajustados por tendencia, estacionalidad, día de la semana, condiciones meteorológicas y contaminantes gaseosos. Resultados: El promedio (DE) de PM2.5y PM2.5-10fue 26.59 (11.06) y 48.83 (21.15) μg/m3. Cada 10 μg/m3de aumento de PM2.5(lag 0) incrementó el riesgo de mortalidad respiratoria en menores de cinco años 11.16٪ (IC95% 1.03-21.39) y de neumonía e influenza en mayores de cinco años 11.16٪ (IC95% 3.91-9.37). El riesgo de mortalidad asociado con las PM2.5-10fue menor. Conclusiones: Se observaron asociaciones positivas y significativas entre exposición a material particulado y la mortalidad diaria en población de la ZMM.

Abstract Objective: To estimate the mortality risk of fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) particles in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey (MAM). Materials and methods: A retrospective ecological time-series analysis (2000-2014) was conducted using total and specific causes of mortality, and daily mean PM2.5and PM2.5-10. Generalized additive distributed lag models controlling for trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological conditions and gaseous pollutants. Results: Mean (SD) PM2.5and PM2.5-10concentrations were 26.59 μg/m3 (11.06 μg/m3) and 48.83 μg/m3(21.15 μg/m3). An increase of 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5 (lag 0) was associated with 11.16% (95%CI:1.03-21.39) increased risk of respiratory mortality in children <=5 years old and 6.6% (95%CI 3.31-9.37) increased risk of pneumonia-influenza in adults >=65 years old. The risk of mortality associated with the concentration of coarse particles was lower. Conclusions: Positive and significant associations were observed between exposure to particulate matter and daily mortality in the MAM´s population.

Revisión rápida: contaminación del aire y morbimortalidad por Covid-19 / Quick review: air pollution and morbi-mortality by Covid-19

Resumen Objetivo: Analizar la evidencia sobre la relación entre la contaminación del aire y un riesgo mayor de morbimortalidad por Covid-19. Material y métodos: Se utilizó una adaptación de la metodología de revisiones rápidas de Cochrane. La búsqueda se realizó en PubMed y MedRxiv y se limitó hasta el 28 y 26 de abril, respectivamente. Los títulos y resúmenes fueron revisados por cinco investigadores que, a su vez, revisaron los textos completos de la selección final. Resultados: Se encontraron 450 manuscritos, 15 cumplieron los criterios de inclusión. La evidencia encontrada reporta que la incidencia y el riesgo de morbilidad y mortalidad por Covid-19 se incrementan con la exposición crónica y aguda a la contaminación del aire, particularmente a material particulado (PM2.5, PM10) y dióxido de nitrógeno. Conclusiones: Se requieren más estudios especialmente en ciudades latinoamericanas. Es necesario fortalecer las recomendaciones en las ciudades con mayores niveles de contaminantes y reducir sus emisiones.

Abstract Objective: To analyze the evidence on the relationship between air pollution and an increased risk of morbidity and mortality from Covid-19. Materials and methods: An adaptation of the Cochrane rapid review methodology was used. The search was performed in PubMed and MedRxiv and was limited until April 28 and 26, respectively. The titles and abstracts were reviewed by five researchers who, in turn, reviewed the full texts of the final selection. Results: 450 manuscripts were found, 15 met the inclusion criteria. The evidence reports that the incidence and risk of morbidity and mortality from Covid-19 increase with chronic and acute exposure to air pollution, particularly to particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10) and nitrogen dioxide. Conclusions: More studies are required especially in Latin American cities. It is necessary to strengthen the recommendations in cities with higher levels of pollutants and to reduce their emissions.

[Mortality associated with fine and coarse suspended particles, in inhabitants of Monterrey Metropolitan Area]. / Mortalidad aguda asociada con partículas suspendidas finas y gruesas en habitantes de la Zona Metropolitana de Monterrey.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the mortality risk of fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) particles in the Metropolitan Area of Mon-terrey (MAM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective ecological time-series analysis (2000-2014) was conducted using total and specific causes of mortality, and daily mean PM2.5 and PM2.5-10. Generalized additive distributed lag models controlling for trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteoro-logical conditions and gaseous pollutants. RESULTS: Mean (SD) PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 concentrations were 26.59 µg/m3(11.06 µg/m3) and 48.83 µg/m3 (21.15 µg/m3). An increase of 10 µg/m3 of PM2.5 (lag 0) was associated with 11.16% (95%CI:1.03-21.39) increased risk of respiratory mortality in children <=5 years old and 6.6% (95%CI 3.31-9.37) increased risk of pneumonia-influenza in adults >=65 years old. The risk of mortality associated with the concentration of coarse particles was lower. CONCLUSIONS: Positive and significant associations were observed between exposure to particulate matter and daily mortality in the MAM ́s population.

OBJETIVO: Estimar el riesgo de mortalidad asociado con la exposición a partículas finas (PM2.5) y gruesas (PM2.5-10) en la Zona Metropolitana de Monterrey (ZMM). MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio ecológico con análisis retrospectivo de series de tiempo (2004-2014) de mortalidad total y especí-fica diaria, y promedio de PM2.5 y PM2.5-10. Modelos aditivos generalizados Poisson con rezagos distribuidos ajustados por tendencia, estacionalidad, día de la semana, condiciones meteorológicas y contaminantes gaseosos. RESULTADOS: 83 (21.15) µg/m3. Cada 10 µg/m3 de aumento de PM2.5 (lag 0) incrementó el riesgo de mortalidad respiratoria en menores de cinco años 11.16% (IC95% 1.03-21.39) y de neumonía e influenza en mayores de 65 años 6.60% (IC95% 3.91-9.37). El riesgo de mortalidad asociado con las PM2.5-10 fue meno. CONCLUSIONES: Se observaron asociaciones positivas y significativas entre exposición a material particulado y la mortalidad diaria en población de la ZMM.

[Quick review: air pollution and morbi-mortalityby Covid-19.] / Revisión rápida: contaminación del aire y morbimortalidad por Covid-19.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the evidence on the relationship between air pollution and an increased risk of morbidity and mortality from Covid-19. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An adaptation of the Cochrane rapid review methodology was used. The search was performed in PubMed and MedRxiv and was limited until April 28 and 26, respectively. The titles and abstracts were reviewed by five researchers who, in turn, reviewed the full texts of the final selection. RESULTS: 450 manuscripts were found, 15 met the inclusion criteria. The evidence reports that the incidence and risk of morbidity and mortality from Covid-19 increase with chronic and acute exposure to air pollution, particularly to particulate matter (PM2.5, P M10) and nitrogen dioxide. CONCLUSIONS: More studies are required especially in Latin American cities. It is necessary to strengthen the recommendations in cities with higher levels of pollutants and to reduce their emissions.

OBJETIVO: Analizar la evidencia sobre la relación entre la contaminación del aire y un riesgo mayor de morbimor-talidad por Covid-19. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizó una adaptación de la metodología de revisiones rápidas de Cochrane. La búsqueda se realizó en PubMed y MedRxiv y se limitó hasta el 28 y 26 de abril, respectivamente. Los títu-los y resúmenes fueron revisados por cinco investigadores que, a su vez, revisaron los textos completos de la selección final. RESULTADOS: Se encontraron 450 manuscritos, 15 cumplieron los criterios de inclusión. La evidencia encon-trada reporta que la incidencia y el riesgo de morbilidad y mortalidad por Covid-19 se incrementan con la exposición crónica y aguda a la contaminación del aire, particularmente a material particulado (PM2.5, P M10) y dióxido de nitrógeno. CONCLUSIONES: Se requieren más estudios especialmente en ciudades latinoamericanas. Es necesario fortalecer las recomendaciones en las ciudades con mayores niveles de contaminantes y reducir sus emisiones.

Short term association between ozone and mortality: global two stage time series study in 406 locations in 20 countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 406 cities in 20 countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network. POPULATION: Deaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily total mortality (all or non-external causes only). RESULTS: A total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 µg/m3) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 µg/m3), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.

Revisión rápida de los efectos de la variación de la temperatura y la humedad en la morbilidad y mortalidad por Covid-19.

Objetivo. Resumir y analizar la evidencia de la asociación entre Covid-19 y factores climáticos. Material y métodos. Se utilizó la metodología de revisiones rápidas de Cochrane. Se buscaron artículos publicados del 1 de enero al 27 de abril de 2020 en una base de datos académica y preprints. Los títulos y resúmenes fueron revisados por dos investigadores y los textos completos por cinco investigadores. Resultados. De 354 artículos identificados, 26 cumplieron los criterios de elegibilidad establecidos. De éstos, 20 observaron una asociación inversa. Al evaluar su calidad, nueve calificaron con validez moderada, porque si bien ajustaron por covariables en el análisis, son estudios ecológicos. Conclusiones. A pesar de la homogeneidad de resultados, los factores climáticos explican un porcentaje pequeño de la variación de Covid-19. Son necesarios estudios con periodo de análisis más largo que capten tendencia y estacionalidad e incluyan factores de riesgo individuales.