Navigating Public Policy Responses to A Pandemic: The Balancing Act Between Physical Health, Mental Health and Household Income.

OBJECTIVE: During COVID-19, governments imposed restrictions that reduced pandemic-related health risks but likely increased personal and societal mental health risk, partly through reductions in household income. This study aims to quantify the public's willingness to accept trade-offs between pandemic health risks, household income reduction, and increased risk for mental illness that may result from future pandemic-related policies. METHODS: 547 adults from an online panel participated in a discrete choice experiment where they were asked to choose between hypothetical future pandemic scenarios. Each scenario was characterized by personal and societal risks of dying from the pandemic, suffering long-term complications, developing anxiety/depression, and reductions in household income. A latent-class regression was used to estimate trade-offs. RESULTS: Respondents state a willingness to make trade-offs across these attributes if the benefits are large enough. They are willing to accept 0.8% (0.7 to 1.0) lower household income, 2.7% (1.8 to 3.6) higher personal risk of anxiety/depression, or 3.2% (1.7 to 4.7) higher societal rate of anxiety/depression in exchange for 300 fewer deaths from the pandemic. CONCLUSION: Results reveal that individuals are willing to accept lower household income and higher rates of mental illness, both personal and societal, if the physical health benefits are large enough. Respondents placed greater emphasis on maintaining personal, as opposed to societal, mental health risk and were most interested to prevent pandemic-related deaths. Governments should consider less restrictive policies when pandemics have high morbidity but low mortality to avoid the prospect of improving physical health while simultaneously reducing net social welfare.

Getting it right with discrete choice experiments: Are we hot or cold?

Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) are widely employed survey-based methods to assess preferences for healthcare services and products. While they offer an experimental way to represent health-related decisions, the stylized representation of scenarios in DCEs may overlook contextual factors that could influence decision-making. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the predictive validity of preferences elicited through a DCE in decisions likely influenced by a hot-cold empathy gap, and compare it to another commonly used method, a direct-elicitation question. We focused on preferences for pain-relief modalities, especially for an epidural during childbirth - a context where direct-elicitation questions have shown a preference for or intention to have a natural birth (representing the "cold" state), yet individuals often opt for an epidural during labor (representing the "hot" state). Leveraging a unique dataset collected from 248 individuals, we incorporated both the stated preferences collected through a survey administered upon hospital admission for childbirth and the actual pain-relief modality usage data documented in medical records. The DCE allowed for the evaluation of scenarios outside of those expected by respondents to simulate decision-making during childbirth. When we compared the predicted epidural use with the actual epidural use during labor, we observed a choice concordance of 71-60%, depending on the model specification. The concordance rate between the predicted and actual choices increased to 77-76% when accounting for the initial use of other ineffective modalities. In contrast, the direct-elicitation choices, relying solely on respondents' baseline expectations, yielded a lower concordance rate of 58% with actual epidural use. These findings highlight the flexibility of the DCE method in simulating complex decision contexts, including those involving hot-cold empathy gaps. The DCE proves valuable in assessing nuanced preferences, providing a more accurate representation of the decision-making processes in healthcare scenarios.

Trade-Offs between Vaccine Effectiveness and Vaccine Safety: Personal versus Policy Decisions.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate whether individuals' trade-offs between vaccine effectiveness and vaccine safety vary if they are asked to consider the perspective of a policymaker making decisions for others compared with the decisions they would make for themselves. METHOD: A web-enabled discrete choice experiment survey was administered between 1 April and 1 May 2022 to participants recruited from the general population of two Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia and Vietnam). In each country, 500 participants were randomly assigned to make decisions regarding coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines for others as a policymaker or in a personal capacity for their own use. Vaccines were characterized by three attributes: (1) effectiveness of the vaccine in reducing infection rate; (2) effectiveness of the vaccine in reducing hospitalization among those infected; and (3) risk of death from vaccine-related serious adverse events. A mixed logit model was utilized for analyses. RESULTS: Based on the attributes and levels used in this study, the most important vaccine attribute was the risk of death from vaccine-related adverse events, followed by effectiveness in reducing infection rate and hospitalizations. Compared with personal decisions, the mean probability of choosing a vaccine was (1) lower, and (2) more sensitive to the changes in risk of death from adverse events in policy decisions (p ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Our results suggest that, in the face of an infectious disease pandemic, individuals are likely to be more risk-averse to vaccine-related deaths when making decisions for others as a policymaker than they would for themselves.

The relationship between hope, medical expenditure and survival among advanced cancer patients.

Introduction: Among those with advanced illness, higher levels of hope may offer physiological benefits. Yet, greater levels of hope may also encourage aggressive treatments. Therefore, higher levels of hope may lead to greater healthcare utilization, higher expenditure, and longer survival. We test these hypotheses among patients with advanced cancer. Methods: A secondary data analysis from a cross-sectional survey of 195 advanced cancer patients with high mortality risk linked to subsequent healthcare utilization (outpatient, day surgeries, non-emergency admissions), health expenditures, and death records. The survey collected data on hope, measured generally by the Herth Hope Index (HHI) and more narrowly by two questions on illness-related hope. Generalized linear regression and Cox models were used to test our hypotheses. Results: 142 (78%) survey participants died during the period of analysis, with close to half (46%) doing so within a year of the survey. Contrary to expectation, HHI scores did not have a significant association with healthcare utilization, expenditure or survival. Yet, illness-related hope, defined as those who expected to live at least 2 years, as opposed to the likely prognosis of 1 year or less as determined by the primary treating oncologist, had 6.6 more planned hospital encounters (95% CI 0.90 to 12.30) in the 12-months following the survey and 41% lower mortality risk (hazard ratio: 0.59, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.99) compared to those who were less optimistic. Secondary analysis among decedents showed that patients who believed that the primary intent of their treatment is curative, had higher total expenditure (S$30,712; 95% CI S$3,143 to S$58,282) in the last 12 months of life than those who did not have this belief. Conclusion: We find no evidence of a relationship between a general measure of hope and healthcare utilization, expenditure, or survival among advanced cancer patients. However, greater illness-related hope is positively associated with these outcomes.

Caregivers' Absenteeism and Its Association With Health Shocks and Functional Impairment Among Persons With Severe Dementia.

Adult child caregivers of persons with severe dementia (PWSDs) experience absenteeism due to caregiving. We quantified employed adult child caregivers' absenteeism; its association with PWSDs' functional impairment and health shocks; and characteristics of caregivers not experiencing absenteeism in the presence of PWSDs' health shocks and high functional impairment. We used a prospective cohort of 111 employed adult child caregivers of community-dwelling PWSDs in Singapore surveyed every 4 months for 1 year. We calculated absenteeism days due to caregiving and the corresponding absenteeism cost. Findings showed that 43% of the caregivers experienced absenteeism due to caregiving at least once during 1 year. On average, in a month, caregivers experienced 2.3 (SD = 5.9) absenteeism days and S$758 (SD = 2120) absenteeism cost. Those caring for PWSDs with high functional impairment experienced an additional 2.5 absenteeism days and S$788 absenteeism cost versus caregivers of PWSDs with low functional impairment. Caregivers whose PWSDs experienced a health shock experienced an additional 1.8 absenteeism days and S$772 absenteeism cost versus caregivers of PWSDs without a health shock. Co-residence with PWSDs worsened the impact of PSWDs' high functional impairment on caregivers absenteeism. Caregivers not co-residing with PWSDs and not using a maladaptive coping style were less likely to experience absenteeism when caring for PWSDs with a health shock. Results suggest a need to support caregivers of PWSDs to better cope with their caregiving in order to mitigate caregivers' absenteeism.

Cost benefit analysis of alternative testing and quarantine policies for travelers for infection control: A case study of Singapore during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Border control mitigates local infections but bears a heavy economic cost, especially for tourism-reliant countries. While studies have supported the efficacy of border control in suppressing cross-border transmission, the trade-off between costs from imported and secondary cases and from lost economic activities has not been studied. This case study of Singapore during the COVID-19 pandemic aims to understand the impacts of varying quarantine length and testing strategies on the economy and health system. Additionally, we explored the impact of permitting unvaccinated travelers to address emerging equity concerns. We assumed that community transmission is stable and vaccination rates are high enough that inbound travelers are not dissuaded from traveling. Methods: The number of travelers was predicted considering that longer quarantine reduces willingness to travel. A micro-simulation model predicted the number of COVID-19 cases among travelers, the resultant secondary cases, and the probability of being symptomatic in each group. The incremental net monetary benefit (INB) of Singapore was quantified under each border-opening policy compared to pre-opening status, based on tourism receipts, cost/profit from testing and quarantine, and cost and health loss due to COVID-19 cases. Results: Compared to polymerase chain reaction (PCR), rapid antigen test (ART) detects fewer imported cases but results in fewer secondary cases. Longer quarantine results in fewer cases but lower INB due to reduced tourism receipts. Assuming the proportion of unvaccinated travelers is small (8% locally and 24% globally), allowing unvaccinated travelers will accrue higher INB without exceeding the intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. The highest monthly INB from all travelers is $2,236.24 m, with 46.69 ICU cases per month, achieved with ARTs at pre-departure and on arrival without quarantine. The optimal policy in terms of highest INB is robust under changes to various model assumptions. Among all cost-benefit components, the top driver for INB is tourism receipts. Conclusions: With high vaccination rates locally and globally alongside stable community transmission, opening borders to travelers regardless of vaccination status will increase economic growth in the destination country. The caseloads remain manageable without exceeding ICU capacity, and costs of cases are offset by the economic value generated from travelers.

Economic Analysis of Border Control Policies during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Modelling Study to Inform Cross-Border Travel Policy between Singapore and Thailand.

With countries progressing towards high COVID-19 vaccination rates, strategies for border reopening are required. This study focuses on Thailand and Singapore, two countries that share significant tourism visitation, to illustrate a framework for optimizing COVID-19 testing and quarantine policies for bilateral travel with a focus on economic recovery. The timeframe is the month of October 2021, when Thailand and Singapore were preparing to reopen borders for bilateral travel. This study was conducted to provide evidence for the border reopening policy decisions. Incremental net benefit (INB) compared to the pre-opening period was quantified through a willingness-to-travel model, a micro-simulation COVID-19 transmission model and an economic model accounting for medical and non-medical costs/benefits. Multiple testing and quarantine policies were examined, and Pareto optimal (PO) policies and the most influential components were identified. The highest possible INB for Thailand is US $125.94 million, under a PO policy with no quarantine but with antigen rapid tests (ARTs) pre-departure and upon arrival to enter both countries. The highest possible INB for Singapore is US $29.78 million, under another PO policy with no quarantine on both sides, no testing to enter Thailand, and ARTs pre-departure and upon arrival to enter Singapore. Tourism receipts and costs/profits of testing and quarantine have greater economic impacts than that from COVID-19 transmission. Provided healthcare systems have sufficient capacity, great economic benefits can be gained for both countries by relaxing border control measures.

Stroke survivors' preferences for post-stroke self-management programs: A discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Self-management programs enhance survival in stroke patients. However, they require patient-centered designs to be effective. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate the type of post-stroke self-management programs that appeal to stroke survivors, and to estimate their willingness to participate in such programs. METHODS: A Discrete Choice Experiment was administered to patients who had either a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or stroke within the past 3 years and were cognitively intact (i.e., stroke survivors). Stroke survivors were presented with eight choice tasks and asked to choose between 'No Program' and two hypothetical post-stroke management programs that varied by six attributes: Topics covered by the program; schedule of the program; frequency and duration of the sessions; number of participants; out-of-pocket registration fee for the whole program; and rewards for completing the program. RESULTS: The analysis involved 146 stroke survivors. Based on the mixed logit model, the predicted willingness to participate ranged from 53% to 76%. The most popular characteristics in a program were topics on health education and risk management, being scheduled during weekends as four sessions that are each 2 hours long and involve four participants, a registration fee of SGD50 (∼USD36), and SGD500 (∼USD359) reward for program completion. CONCLUSIONS: Interest in post-stroke self-management programs was high, with at least half of the sample showing interest in participating in these programs. Program features such as focusing on health education and risk management, charging a low registration fee, and offering incentives helped to increase the demand.

Economic burden of excess weight among older adults in Singapore: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incremental per capita and aggregate direct and indirect costs of excess weight among older adults (aged 40-80) in Singapore. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis of an existing cross-sectional survey SETTING: Residential districts in South-West Singapore PARTICIPANTS: 5848 older adults (aged 40-80) from Singapore's three dominant ethnic groups PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models to estimate per capita medical expenditures and absenteeism costs attributable to overweight and obesity based on WHO's body-mass index (BMI) classification. Per capita estimates were multiplied by prevalence to obtain aggregate costs. RESULTS: The sample included 2467 Chinese, 2128 Indians and 1253 Malays. Indians and Malays are three to four times more likely to be obese (BMI≥30 kg/m2) than Chinese. Among Chinese, compared with those who are normal weight, individuals who are overweight missed one additional workday per year more (p<0.05). Individuals in the obese category had S$720 per year greater medical expenditures (p<0.05) but missed workdays were not statistically different from those in the normal weight category. Among Indians, differences were not significant between normal and overweight categories. Indians in the obese category incurred an additional S$310 per year (p<0.10) more than those of normal weight. For Malays, no significant differences by BMI category were identified. Aggregate burden is estimated at S$261M (million) (95% CI: 57M to 465M) with 68% from medical expenditures. Chinese, Malays and Indians make up 79%, 12% and 9% of the population, respectively, but account for 76%, 19% and 4% of the costs of excess weight respectively. CONCLUSION: Excess weight imposes a substantial health and economic burden among older Singaporeans. Successful efforts to prevent and reduce obesity prevalence may generate both health and economic improvements.

Preferences for a non-invasive prenatal test as first-line screening for Down Syndrome: A discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate preferences of pregnant women for the characteristics of prenatal testing, and to quantify their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) as first-line screening for Down Syndrome. METHOD: A cross-sectional discrete choice experiment survey including five testing attributes was administered to 192 pregnant women (≤14 weeks' gestation) who were aged ≥21 years in Singapore. We calculated marginal WTP for improvements in testing characteristics and NIPT. RESULTS: We identified two groups of women with distinct preferences for prenatal testing. Women aged ≥35 years, with at least a university education, and with intention to terminate pregnancy of an affected fetus were more likely to be in the group with higher WTP for improvements in test characteristics. While participants valued increased detection rate and lower screen positive rate associated with NIPT, they also valued no risk of test failure and ability to test for birth defects using standard testing. The participants, on average, were not willing to pay for NIPT over the standard testing as a first-line screening test. CONCLUSIONS: As a first-line screening, NIPT was not preferred over standard testing. The prenatal consultations should focus on each testing characteristic equally as our findings show diverse preferences for testing characteristics.

Advance care planning and caregiver outcomes: intervention efficacy - systematic review.

CONTEXT: Caregivers make difficult end-of-life (EOL) decisions for patients, often adversely affecting their own psychological health. Understanding whether advance care planning (ACP) interventions benefit caregivers can enable healthcare systems to use these approaches to better support them. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and quantify the impacts of ACP interventions on caregiver outcomes. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases for English-language randomised or cluster randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published until May 2021. Two reviewers independently assessed methodological quality using the Physiotherapy Evidence-Based Database Scale. We conducted a narrative synthesis for each outcome. Difference between arms with a p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Of the 3487 titles reviewed, 35 RCTs met eligibility; 68.6% were rated high quality. Included RCTs were heterogeneous in intervention characteristics, setting and disease. Meta-analysis of 17 RCTs showed that ACP had large and significant improvement in congruence in EOL care preferences between caregivers and patients (standardised mean difference 0.73, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.05). The effect of ACP on this outcome, however, declined over time. We also found some evidence that ACP improved bereavement outcomes (three of four RCTs), satisfaction with care quality/communication (four of the six RCTs), reduced decisional conflict (two of the two RCTs) and burden (one RCT). No study showed that mental health of caregivers were adversely affected. CONCLUSION: The review provides most comprehensive evidence about the efficacy of ACP on caregiver outcomes. Findings suggest some evidence of benefit of ACP on caregiver outcomes.

Protocol for the economic evaluation of COVID-19 pandemic response policies.

INTRODUCTION: Several treatment options are available for COVID-19 to date. However, the use of a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is necessary for jurisdictions to contain its spread. Although the implementation cost of NPIs may be low from the healthcare system perspective, it can be costly when considering the indirect costs from the societal perspective. COVID-19 vaccination campaigns have begun in several countries worldwide. Nonetheless, the quantity of vaccines available remain limited over the next 1 to 2 years. A tool for informing vaccine prioritisation that considers both cost and effectiveness will be highly useful. This study aims to identify the most cost-effective combination of COVID-19 response policies, using Singapore as an example. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: An age-stratified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model will be used to generate the number of infections stratified by disease severity under different intervention scenarios. Polices of interest include test-trace-isolate, travel restriction, compulsory face mask and hygiene practices, social distancing, dexamethasone/remdesivir therapy and vaccination. The latest phase 3 trial results and the WHO Target Product Profiles for COVID-19 vaccines will be used to model vaccine characteristics. A cost (expected resource utilisation and productivity losses) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) will be attached to these outputs for a cost-utility analysis. The primary outcome measure will be the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio generated from the incremental cost of policy alternatives expressed as a ratio of the incremental benefits (QALYs gained). Efficacy of policy options will be gathered from literature review and from its observed impacts in Singapore. Cost data will be gathered from healthcare institutions, Ministry of Health and published data. Sensitivity analysis such as threshold analysis and scenario analysis will be conducted. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was not required for this study. The study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals.

Avoiding Trouble Ahead: Lessons Learned and Suggestions for Economic Evaluations of COVID-19 Vaccines.

With vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) being introduced in countries across the world, policy makers are facing many practical considerations about how best to implement a vaccination programme. The supply of vaccines is insufficient for the global population, so decisions must be made as to which groups are prioritised for any vaccination and when. Furthermore, the aims of vaccination programmes will differ between countries, with some prioritising economic benefits that could stem from the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and others seeking simply to reduce the number of COVID-19 cases or deaths. This paper aims to share the experiences and lessons learned from conducting economic evaluations in Singapore and Thailand on hypothetical COVID-19 vaccines to provide a basis for other countries to develop their own contextualised economic evaluations, with particular focus on the key uncertainties, technical challenges, and characteristics that modellers should consider in partnership with key stakeholders. Which vaccines, vaccination strategies, and policy responses are most economically beneficial remains uncertain. It is therefore important for all governments to conduct their own analyses to inform local policy responses to COVID-19, including the implementation of COVID-19 vaccines in both the short and the long run. It is essential that such studies are designed, and ideally conducted, before vaccines are introduced so that policy decisions and implementation procedures are not delayed.