Integrating consumer risk perception and awareness with simulation-based quantitative microbial risk assessment using a coupled systems framework: A case study of private groundwater users in Ontario.

Private well users in Ontario are responsible for ensuring the potability of their own private drinking water source through protective actions (i.e., water treatment, well maintenance, and regular water quality testing). In the absence of regulation and limited surveillance, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) represents the most practical and robust approach to estimating the human health burden attributable to private wells. For an increasingly accurate estimation, QMRA of private well water should be represented by a coupled model, which includes both the socio-cognitive and physical aspects of private well water contamination and microbial exposure. The objective of the current study was to determine levels of waterborne exposure via well water consumption among three sub-groups (i.e., clusters) of private well users in Ontario and quantify the risk of waterborne acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) attributed to Giardia, shiga-toxin producing E. coli (STEC) and norovirus from private drinking water sources in Ontario. Baseline simulations were utilized to explore the effect of varying socio-cognitive scenarios on model inputs (i.e., increased awareness, protective actions, aging population). The current study uses a large spatio-temporal groundwater quality dataset and cross-sectional province-wide survey to create socio-cognitive-specific QMRA simulations to estimate the risk of waterborne AGI attributed to three enteric pathogens in private drinking waters source in Ontario. Findings suggest significant differences in the level of exposure among sub-groups of private well users. Private well users within Cluster 3 are characterised by higher levels of exposure and annual illness attributable to STEC, Giardia and norovirus than Clusters 1 and 2. Provincial incidence rates of 520.9 (1522 illness per year), 532.1 (2211 illness per year) and 605.5 (5345 illness per year) cases/100,000 private well users per year were predicted for private well users associated with Clusters 1 through 3. Established models will enable development of necessary tools tailored to specific groups of at-risk well users, allowing for preventative public health management of private groundwater sources.

Classification of sub-populations for quantitative risk assessment based on awareness and perception: A cross-sectional population study of private well users in Ontario.

Private well users in Ontario are responsible for protective actions, including source maintenance, treatment, and submitting samples for laboratory testing. However, low participation rates are reported, thus constituting a public health concern, as risk mitigation behaviours can directly reduce exposure to waterborne pathogens. The current study examined the combined effects of socio-demographic profile, experience(s), and "risk domains" (i.e., awareness, attitudes, risk perceptions and beliefs) on behaviours, and subsequently classified private well users in Ontario based on cognitive factors. A province-wide online survey (n = 1228) was employed to quantify Ontario well owners' awareness, perceptions, and behaviours in relation to their personal groundwater supply and local contamination sources. A scoring protocol for four risk domains was developed. Two-step cluster analysis was used to classify respondents based on individual risk domain scores. Logistic regression was employed to identify key variables associated with cluster membership (i.e., profile analysis). Overall, 1140 survey respondents were included for analyses. Three distinct clusters were identified based on two risk domains; groundwater awareness and source risk perception. Profile analyses indicate "low awareness and source risk perception" (Low A/SRP) members were more likely male, while "low awareness and moderate source risk perception" (Low A/Mod SRP) members were more likely female and bottled water users. Well users characterised as "high awareness and source risk perception" (High A/SRP) were more likely to report higher educational attainment and previous well water testing. Findings illustrate that socio-cognitive clusters and their components (i.e., demographics, awareness, attitudes, perceptions, experiences, and protective actions) are distinct based on the likelihood, frequency, and magnitude of waterborne pathogen exposures (i.e., risk-based). Risk-based clustering, when incorporated into quantitative microbial risk assessment, enables the development of effective risk management and communication initiatives that are demographically focused and tailored to specific sub-groups.

Behavioral pathways to private well risk mitigation: A structural equation modeling approach.

Complex, multihazard risks such as private groundwater contamination necessitate multiannual risk reduction actions including seasonal, weather-based hazard evaluations. In the Republic of Ireland (ROI), high rural reliance on unregulated private wells renders behavior promotion a vital instrument toward safeguarding household health from waterborne infection. However, to date, pathways between behavioral predictors remain unknown while latent constructs such as extreme weather event (EWE) risk perception and self-efficacy (perceived behavioral competency) have yet to be sufficiently explored. Accordingly, a nationwide survey of 560 Irish private well owners was conducted, with structural equation modeling (SEM) employed to identify underlying relationships determining key supply management behaviors. The pathway analysis (SEM) approach was used to model three binary outcomes: information seeking, post-EWE action, and well testing behavior. Upon development of optimal models, perceived self-efficacy emerged as a significant direct and/or indirect driver of all three behavior types-demonstrating the greatest indirect effect (ß = -0.057) on adoption of post-EWE actions and greatest direct (ß = 0.222) and total effect (ß = 0.245) on supply testing. Perceived self-efficacy inversely influenced EWE risk perception in all three models but positively influenced supply awareness (where present). Notably, the presence of a vulnerable (infant and/or elderly) household member negatively influenced adoption of post-EWE actions (ß = -0.131, p = 0.016). Results suggest that residential and age-related factors constitute key demographic variables influencing risk mitigation and are strongly mediated by cognitive variables-particularly self-efficacy. Study findings may help contextualize predictors of private water supply management, providing a basis for future risk-based water interventions.

Assessing the risk of acute gastrointestinal illness attributable to three enteric pathogens from contaminated private water wells in Ontario.

The province of Ontario compromises the largest groundwater reliant population in Canada serving approximately 1.6 million individuals. Unlike municipal water systems, private well water is not required to meet water quality regulatory standards and thus source maintenance, treatment and testing remains the responsibility of the well owner. Infections associated with private drinking water systems are rarely documented given their typically sporadic nature, thus the human health effects (e.g., acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)) on consumers remains relatively unknown, representing a significant gap in water safety management. The current study sought to quantify the risk of waterborne AGI attributed to Giardia, shiga-toxin producing E. coli (STEC) and norovirus from private drinking water sources in Ontario using Monte Carlo simulation-based quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Findings suggest that consumption of contaminated private well water in Ontario is responsible for approximately 4823 AGI cases annually, with 3464 (71.8%) and 1359 (28.1%) AGI cases predicted to occur in consolidated and unconsolidated aquifers, respectively. By pathogen, waterborne AGI was attributed to norovirus (62%; 2991/4823), Giardia (24.6%; 1186/4823) and STEC (13.4%; 646/4823). The developed QMRA framework was used to assess the potential health impacts of partial and total well water treatment system failure. In the unlikely event of total treatment failure, total mean annual illnesses are predicted to almost double (4217 to 7064 cases per year), highlighting the importance of effective water treatment and comprehensive testing programs in reducing infectious health risks attributable to private well water in Ontario. Study findings indicate significant underreporting of waterborne AGI rates at the provincial level likely biasing public health interventions and programs that are effective in monitoring and minimizing the health risk associated with private well water.

Estimating the duration and overlap of Escherichia coli contamination events in private groundwater supplies for quantitative risk assessment using a multiannual (2010-2017) provincial dataset.

Approximately 1.6 million individuals in Ontario rely on private water wells. Private well water quality in Ontario remains the responsibility of the well owner, and due to the absence of regulation, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) likely represents the most effective approach to estimating and mitigating waterborne infection risk(s) from these supplies. Annual contamination duration (i.e., contaminated days per annum) represents a central input for waterborne QMRA; however, it is typically based on laboratory studies or meta-analyses, thus representing an important limitation for risk assessment, as groundwater mesocosms cannot accurately replicate subsurface conditions. The present study sought to address these limitations using a large spatio-temporal in-situ groundwater quality dataset (>700,000 samples) to evaluate aquifer-specific E. coli die-off rates (CFU/100 mL per day decline), subsequent contamination sequence duration(s) and the likelihood of overlapping contamination events. Findings indicate median E. coli die-off rates of 0.38 CFU/100 mL per day and 0.64 CFU/100 mL per day, for private wells located in unconsolidated and consolidated aquifers, respectlvely, with mean calculated contamination sequence durations of 18 days (unconsolidated) and 11 days (consolidated). Study findings support and permit development of increasingly evidence-based, regionally- and temporally-specific quantitative waterborne risk assessment.

Drinking Water Consumption Patterns among Private Well Users in Ontario: Implications for Exposure Assessment of Waterborne Infection.

Understanding the water consumption patterns within a specific population informs development of increasingly accurate, spatially specific exposure and/or risk assessment of waterborne infection. The current study examined the consumption patterns of private well users in Ontario while considering potentially influential underlying sociodemographics, household characteristics, and experiential factors. A province-wide online survey was circulated between May and August 2018 (n = 1,162). Overall, 81.5% of respondents reported daily well water consumption (i.e., tap water). Results indicate a mean daily well water consumption rate of 1,132 mL/day (SD = 649 mL/day) among well water consumers. Gender was significantly associated with well water consumption, with higher consumption rates found among female respondents. The experience of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) symptoms or diagnosis in the past 12 months did not impact the volume of water consumed, suggesting that experiencing previous AGI does not decrease consumption volumes, and therefore exposure over time. Significantly higher rates of well water consumption were found among respondents who reported previous testing or ongoing water treatment. Approximately 45.5% of survey respondents who stated that they do not consume well water selected bottled water as their primary household drinking water supply. Bottled water consumption was also not associated with previous AGI experiences. Findings will inform future quantitative microbial risk assessments associated with private well water use by providing spatially and demographically specific estimates of well water consumption.

Examining influential drivers of private well users' perceptions in Ontario: A cross-sectional population study.

Private well users are responsible for managing and maintaining the quality of their drinking water source. Previous studies in Canada have reported low testing rates among well users, a cornerstone of well stewardship behaviours that can prevent the consumption of contaminated groundwater. To improve well stewardship, it is important to understand the interactions between, and the impacts of, various factors that may influence behaviours. Accordingly, the objective of the current study was to investigate the impact of socio-demographics, property characteristics, and experiences with well construction and acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) (i.e., previous experiences) on levels of awareness, attitudes, risk perceptions, and beliefs (i.e., risk domains) among private well users in Ontario. A link to a province-wide online survey was circulated between May and August 2018 and novel "risk domain" scoring protocols were developed to classify and summarize response data. The survey was undertaken by 1228 respondents, of which 1030 completed the survey in full. Results indicate a low level of waterborne pathogen awareness, with 50.8% of respondents unaware of any groundwater associated pathogens. Respondents' geographic location, gender, and well type were significantly associated with well users' attitudes and perceptions of risk regarding their personal well water supply and the quality and quantity of local groundwater sources. Higher levels of awareness and lower risk perception scores (i.e., lower perceptions of risk) were associated with residential presence during well construction (p < 0.001 and p = 0.017, respectively). Previous case(s) of AGI within the respondent's household were significantly associated with negative attitudes towards their well water (p < 0.001) and higher risk perception scores (p = 0.025) with respect to the quantity of local groundwater sources. Results may be used to identify critical experiential control points (e.g., during well construction or after a physician confirmed AGI diagnosis) and develop improved risk management and communication strategies aimed at private well users.

Gender-Related Differences in Flood Risk Perception and Behaviours among Private Groundwater Users in the Republic of Ireland.

Extreme weather events including flooding can have severe personal, infrastructural, and economic consequences, with recent evidence pointing to surface flooding as a pathway for the microbial contamination of private groundwater supplies. There is a pressing need for increasingly focused information and awareness campaigns to highlight the risks posed by extreme weather events and appropriate subsequent post-event actions. To date, little is known about the presence, directionality or magnitude of gender-related differences regarding flood risk awareness and behaviour among private groundwater users, a particularly susceptible sub-population due to an overarching paucity of infrastructural regulation across many regions. The current study investigated gender-related differences in flood risk perception and associated mitigation behaviours via a cross-sectional, national survey of 405 (168 female, 237 male) private groundwater supply users. The developed survey instrument assessed socio-demographic profile, previous flood experience, experiential and conjectural health behaviours (contingent on previous experience), and Risk, Attitude, Norms, Ability, Self-regulation (RANAS) framework questions. Statistically significant gender differences were found between both 'Norm-Descriptive' and 'Ability-Self-efficacy' RANAS elements (p < 0.05). Female respondents reported a lower level of awareness of the need for post-flood action(s) (8.9% vs. 16.5%), alongside a perceived "lack of information" as a reason for not testing their domestic well (4.9% vs. 11.5%). Conversely, male respondents were more likely to report awareness of their well location in relation to possible contamination sources (96.6% vs. 89.9%) and awareness of previous water testing results (98.9% vs. 93.0%). Gender-related gaps exist within the studied private groundwater reliant cohort, a sub-population which has to date remained under-studied within the context of climate change and extreme weather events. Accordingly, findings suggest that gender-focused communication and education may represent an effective tool for protecting current and future generations of global groundwater users.

Development of a hierarchical model for predicting microbiological contamination of private groundwater supplies in a geologically heterogeneous region.

Private groundwater sources in the Republic of Ireland provide drinking water to an estimated 750,000 people or 16% of the national population. Consumers of untreated groundwater are at increased risk of infection from pathogenic microorganisms. However, given the volume of private wells in operation, remediation or even quantification of public risk is both costly and time consuming. In this study, a hierarchical logistic regression model was developed to 'predict' contamination with E. coli based on the results of groundwater quality analyses of private wells (n = 132) during the period of September 2011 to November 2012. Assessment of potential microbial contamination risk factors were categorised into three groups: Intrinsic (environmental factors), Specific (local features) and Infrastructural (groundwater source characteristics) which included a total of 15 variables. Overall, 51.4% of wells tested positive for E. coli during the study period with univariate analysis indicating that 11 of the 15 assessed risk factors, including local bedrock type, local subsoil type, septic tank reliance, 5 day antecedent precipitation and temperature, along with well type and depth, were all significantly associated with E. coli presence (p < 0.05). Hierarchical logistic regression was used to develop a private well susceptibility model with the final model containing 8 of the 11 associated variables. The model was shown to be highly efficient; correctly classifying the presence of E. coli in 94.2% of cases, and the absence of E. coli in 84.7% of cases. Model validation was performed using an external data set (n = 32) and it was shown that the model has promising accuracy with 90% of positive E. coli cases correctly predicted. The developed model represents a risk assessment and management tool that may be used to develop effective water-quality management strategies to minimize public health risks both in Ireland and abroad.

Unregulated private wells in the Republic of Ireland: consumer awareness, source susceptibility and protective actions.

While the safety of public drinking water supplies in the Republic of Ireland is governed and monitored at both local and national levels, there are currently no legislative tools in place relating to private supplies. It is therefore paramount that private well owners (and users) be aware of source specifications and potential contamination risks, to ensure adequate water quality. The objective of this study was to investigate the level of awareness among private well owners in the Republic of Ireland, relating to source characterisation and groundwater contamination issues. This was undertaken through interviews with 245 private well owners. Statistical analysis indicates that respondents' source type significantly influences owner awareness, particularly regarding well construction and design parameters. Water treatment, source maintenance and regular water quality testing are considered the three primary "protective actions" (or "stewardship activities") to consumption of contaminated groundwater and were reported as being absent in 64%, 72% and 40% of cases, respectively. Results indicate that the level of awareness exhibited by well users did not significantly affect the likelihood of their source being contaminated (source susceptibility); increased awareness on behalf of well users was associated with increased levels of protective action, particularly among borehole owners. Hence, lower levels of awareness may result in increased contraction of waterborne illnesses where contaminants have entered the well. Accordingly, focused educational strategies to increase awareness among private groundwater users are advocated in the short-term; the development and introdiction of formal legislation is recommended in the long-term, including an integrated programme of well inspections and risk assessments.

Investigation of water consumption patterns among Irish adults for waterborne quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).

Microbial and chemical contamination of drinking water supplies can cause human health problems. Microbial pathogens are of primary concern and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is employed to assess and manage the risks they pose. Estimates of drinking water consumption, or distributions, are required to assess levels of waterborne pathogen exposure. To establish distributions for the Irish population, water consumption data were collected from 549 rural survey respondents. A further 110 participants completed a five-day water consumption diary. Average daily consumption of tap-water among the primarily rural-dwelling questionnaire respondents was 940 ml day(-1) (SD 670 ml day(-1)) and 1,186 ml day(-1) (SD 701 ml day(-1)) among the principally urban-dwelling diary respondents. Both mean figures are significantly less than the 2,000 ml day(-1) default figure currently used for QRMA; therefore its use may lead to overestimation of the waterborne health burden. As the observed daily consumption difference between rural and urban residents is statistically significant, use of separate consumption distributions for QMRA is advocated. Although males reported higher daily tap-water consumption rates than females, these differences were insignificant, so separate consumption distributions are not considered necessary. A log-normal distribution provides the most adequate fit for daily tap-water intake (ml day(-1)) within both datasets.