Presidential election results in 2018-2022 and its association with excess mortality during the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic in Brazilian municipalities.

We evaluated the hypothesis of an association between excess mortality and political partisanship in Brazil using municipal death certificates registered in the Brazilian Ministry of Health database and first-round electoral results of Presidential elections in 2018 and 2022. Considering the former Brazilian President's stance of discrediting and neglecting the severity of the pandemic, we expect a possible relationship between excessive mortality rates during the COVID-19 health crisis and the number of municipal votes for Bolsonaro. Our results showed that, in both elections, the first-round percentage of municipal votes for Bolsonaro was positively associated with the peaks of excess deaths across Brazilian municipalities in 2020 and 2021. Despite the excess mortality during the pandemic, the political loyalty to Bolsonaro remained the same during the electoral period of 2022. A possible explanation for this is linked to the Brazilian political scenario, which presents an environment of tribal politics and affective polarization.

Estimation and probabilistic projection of age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rate estimation in small areas can be difficult due the low number of events/exposure (i.e. stochastic error). If the death records are not completed, it adds a systematic uncertainty on the mortality estimates. Previous studies in Brazil have combined demographic and statistical methods to partially overcome these issues. We estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all 5,565 Brazilian municipalities in 2010 and forecasted probabilistic mortality rates and life expectancy between 2010 and 2030. METHODS: We used a combination of the Tool for Projecting Age-Specific Rates Using Linear Splines (TOPALS), Bayesian Model, Spatial Smoothing Model and an ad-hoc procedure to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities for 2010. Then we adapted the Lee-Carter model to forecast mortality rates by age and sex in all municipalities between 2010 and 2030. RESULTS: The adjusted sex- and age-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities in 2010 reveal a distinct regional pattern, showcasing a decrease in life expectancy in less socioeconomically developed municipalities when compared to estimates without adjustments. The forecasted mortality rates indicate varying regional improvements, leading to a convergence in life expectancy at birth among small areas in Brazil. Consequently, a reduction in the variability of age at death across Brazil's municipalities was observed, with a persistent sex differential. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates at a small-area level were successfully estimated and forecasted, with associated uncertainty estimates also generated for future life tables. Our approach could be applied across countries with data quality issues to improve public policy planning.

The effect of conditional cash transfers on tuberculosis incidence and mortality is determined by ethnoracial and socioeconomic factors: a cohort study of 54 million individuals in Brazil.

Background: Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT) are the world's most widely implemented interventions for poverty alleviation. Still, there is no solid evidence of the CCT effects on the reduction of the burden of Tuberculosis (TB) in marginalized and extremely vulnerable populations. We estimated the effect of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP), the largest CCT in the world, on TB incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rate using a nationwide cohort of 54.5 million individuals during a 12-year period in Brazil. Methods: We selected low-income individuals who entered in the 100 Million Brazilians Cohort and were linked to nationwide TB registries between 2004 to 2015, and compared BFP beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries using a quasi-experimental impact evaluation design. We employed inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) multivariable Poisson regressions, adjusted for all relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare confounding variables - at individual and municipal level. Subsequently, we evaluated BFP effects for different subpopulations according to ethnoracial factors, wealth levels, sex, and age. We also performed several sensitivity and triangulation analyses to verify the robustness of the estimates. Findings: Exposure to BFP was associated with a large reduction in TB incidence in the low-income individuals under study (adjusted rate ratio [aRR]:0.59;95%CI:0.58-0.60) and mortality (aRR:0.69;95%CI:0.65-0.73). The strongest BFP effect was observed in Indigenous people both for TB incidence (aRR:0.37;95%CI:0.32-0.42), and mortality-aRR:0.35;95%CI:0.20-0.62), and in Black and Pardo people (Incidence-aRR:0.58;95%CI:0.57-0.59; Mortality -aRR:0.69;95%CI:0,64-0,73). BFP effects showed a clear gradient according to wealth levels and were considerably stronger among the extremely poor individuals for TB incidence (aRR:0.49, 95%CI:0.49-0.50) and mortality (aRR:0.60;95%CI:0.55-0.65). The BFP effects on case-fatality rates were also positive, however without statistical significance. Interpretation: CCT can strongly reduce TB incidence and mortality in extremely poor, Indigenous, Black and Pardo populations, and could significantly contribute to achieving the End TB Strategy targets and the TB-related Sustainable Development Goals.

The intersecting effects of race, wealth, and education on AIDS incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rate: a Brazilian cohort study of 28.3 million individuals.

The relationships between race, education, wealth, their intersections and AIDS morbidity/mortality were analyzed in retrospective cohort of 28.3 million individuals followed for 9 years (2007-2015). Together with several sensitivity analyses, a wide range of interactions on additive and multiplicative scales were estimated. Race, education, and wealth were each strongly associated with all of the AIDS-related outcomes, and the magnitude of the associations increased as intersections were included. A significantly higher risk of illness (aRR: 3.07, 95%CI:2.67-3.53) and death (aRR: 4.96, 95%CI:3.99-6.16) from AIDS was observed at the intersection of Black race, lower educational attainment, and less wealth. A higher case-fatality rate (aRR: 1.62, 95%CI:1.18-2.21) was also seen for the same intersectional group. Historically oppressed groups lying at the intersections of race, education, and wealth, had a considerably higher risk of illness and death from AIDS. AIDS-related interventions will require the implementation of comprehensive intersectoral policies that follow an intersectionality perspective.

Syphilis in pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes: A nationwide longitudinal study in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to evaluate the association between syphilis in pregnancy and low birth weight, small for gestational age, and preterm birth. METHODS: This longitudinal study used Brazilian National Information System for livebirths (SINASC) linked to the gestational syphilis cases from Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) from 2011 to 2017. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used to compare the birth outcomes of pregnant women with and without syphilis. The study protocol was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Institute of Collective Health of the Federal University of Bahia (CAAE: registration no. 18022319.4.0000.5030). RESULTS: A total of 17 930 817 live births were included in the study. Of these, 155 214 (8.7/1000) were exposed to syphilis during pregnancy. Maternal syphilis increased the odds of low birth weight (aOR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.85-1.91), small for gestational age (aOR 1.53, 95% CI: 1.51-1.56), and preterm birth (aOR 1.35, 95% CI: 1.33-1.37). Higher odds were observed for pregnant women with VDRL titer ≥64 and untreated maternal syphilis when compared to mothers without syphilis. Analysis stratified by prenatal care showed higher odds for all adverse birth outcomes for mothers attending ≤6 prenatal appointments. CONCLUSION: Our findings showed a strong association between gestational syphilis and adverse birth outcomes with increased odds observed among women with higher VDRL titers, lack of treatment, and fewer prenatal appointments. These results highlight the need for adequate screening and treatment for gestational syphilis during pregnancy to mitigate the risk of adverse birth outcomes.

Data challenges for international health emergencies: lessons learned from ten international COVID-19 driver projects.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of international data sharing and access to improve health outcomes for all. The International COVID-19 Data Alliance (ICODA) programme enabled 12 exemplar or driver projects to use existing health-related data to address major research questions relating to the pandemic, and developed data science approaches that helped each research team to overcome challenges, accelerate the data research cycle, and produce rapid insights and outputs. These approaches also sought to address inequity in data access and use, test approaches to ethical health data use, and make summary datasets and outputs accessible to a wider group of researchers. This Health Policy paper focuses on the challenges and lessons learned from ten of the ICODA driver projects, involving researchers from 19 countries and a range of health-related datasets. The ICODA programme reviewed the time taken for each project to complete stages of the health data research cycle and identified common challenges in areas such as data sharing agreements and data curation. Solutions included provision of standard data sharing templates, additional data curation expertise at an early stage, and a trusted research environment that facilitated data sharing across national boundaries and reduced risk. These approaches enabled the driver projects to rapidly produce research outputs, including publications, shared code, dashboards, and innovative resources, which can all be accessed and used by other research teams to address global health challenges.

Evaluating the relationship between conditional cash transfer programme on preterm births: a retrospective longitudinal study using the 100 million Brazilian cohort.

BACKGROUND: Preterm births increase mortality and morbidity during childhood and later life, which is closely associated with poverty and the quality of prenatal care. Therefore, income redistribution and poverty reduction initiatives may be valuable in preventing this outcome. We assessed whether receipt of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer programme - Bolsa Familia Programme, the largest in the world - reduces the occurrence of preterm births, including their severity categories, and explored how this association differs according to prenatal care and the quality of Bolsa Familia Programme management. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed involving the first live singleton births to mothersenrolled in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort from 2004 to 2015, who had at least one child before cohort enrollment. Only the first birth during the cohort period was included, but born from 2012 onward. A deterministic linkage with the Bolsa Familia Programme payroll dataset and a similarity linkage with the Brazilian Live Birth Information System were performed. The exposed group consisted of newborns to mothers who received Bolsa Familia from conception to delivery. Our outcomes were infants born with a gestational age < 37 weeks: (i) all preterm births, (ii) moderate-to-late (32-36), (iii) severe (28-31), and (iv) extreme (< 28) preterm births compared to at-term newborns. We combined propensity score-based methods and weighted logistic regressions to compare newborns to mothers who did and did not receive Bolsa Familia, controlling for socioeconomic conditions. We also estimated these effects separately, according to the adequacy of prenatal care and the index of quality of Bolsa Familia Programme management. RESULTS: 1,031,053 infants were analyzed; 65.9% of the mothers were beneficiaries. Bolsa Familia Programme was not associated with all sets of preterm births, moderate-to-late, and severe preterm births, but was associated with a reduction in extreme preterm births (weighted OR: 0.69; 95%CI: 0.63-0.76). This reduction can also be observed among mothers receiving adequate prenatal care (weighted OR: 0.66; 95%CI: 0.59-0.74) and living in better Bolsa Familia management municipalities (weighted OR: 0.56; 95%CI: 0.43-0.74). CONCLUSIONS: An income transfer programme for pregnant women of low-socioeconomic status, conditional to attending prenatal care appointments, has been associated with a reduction in extremely preterm births. These programmes could be essential in achieving Sustainable Development Goals.

Ethnoracial disparities in childhood growth trajectories in Brazil: a longitudinal nationwide study of four million children.

BACKGROUND: The literature contains scarce data on inequalities in growth trajectories among children born to mothers of diverse ethnoracial background in the first 5 years of life. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate child growth according to maternal ethnoracial group using a nationwide Brazilian database. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort study employed linked data from the CIDACS Birth Cohort and the Brazilian Food and Nutrition Surveillance System (SISVAN). Children born at term, aged 5 years or younger who presented two or more measurements of length/height (cm) and weight (kg) were followed up between 2008 and 2017. Prevalence of stunting, underweight, wasting, and thinness were estimated. Nonlinear mixed effect models were used to estimate childhood growth trajectories, among different maternal ethnoracial groups (White, Asian descent, Black, Pardo, and Indigenous), using the raw measures of weight (kg) and height (cm) and the length/height-for-age (L/HAZ) and weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ). The analyses were also adjusted for mother's age, educational level, and marital status. RESULTS: A total of 4,090,271 children were included in the study. Children of Indigenous mothers exhibited higher rates of stunting (26.74%) and underweight (5.90%). Wasting and thinness were more prevalent among children of Pardo, Asian, Black, and Indigenous mothers than those of White mothers. Regarding children's weight (kg) and length/height (cm), those of Indigenous, Pardo, Black, and Asian descent mothers were on average shorter and weighted less than White ones. Regarding WAZ and L/HAZ growth trajectories, a sharp decline in average z-scores was evidenced in the first weeks of life, followed by a period of recovery. Over time, z-scores for most of the subgroups analyzed trended below zero. Children of mother in greater social vulnerability showed less favorable growth. CONCLUSION: We observed racial disparities in nutritional status and childhood growth trajectories, with children of Indigenous mothers presenting less favorable outcomes compared to their White counterparts. The strengthening of policies aimed at protecting Indigenous children should be urgently undertaken to address systematic ethnoracial health inequalities.

Income determines the impact of cash transfers on HIV/AIDS: cohort study of 22.7 million Brazilians.

Living with extremely low-income is an important risk factor for HIV/AIDS and can be mitigated by conditional cash transfers. Using a cohort of 22.7 million low-income individuals during 9 years, we evaluated the effects of the world's largest conditional cash transfer, the Programa Bolsa Família, on HIV/AIDS-related outcomes. Exposure to Programa Bolsa Família was associated with reduced AIDS incidence by 41% (RR:0.59; 95%CI:0.57-0.61), mortality by 39% (RR:0.61; 95%CI:0.57-0.64), and case fatality rates by 25% (RR:0.75; 95%CI:0.66-0.85) in the cohort, and Programa Bolsa Família effects were considerably stronger among individuals of extremely low-income [reduction of 55% for incidence (RR:0.45, 95% CI:0.42-0.47), 54% mortality (RR:0.46, 95% CI:0.42-0.49), and 37% case-fatality (RR:0.63, 95% CI:0.51 -0.76)], decreasing gradually until having no effect in individuals with higher incomes. Similar effects were observed on HIV notification. Programa Bolsa Família impact was also stronger among women and adolescents. Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses demonstrated the robustness of the results. Conditional cash transfers can significantly reduce AIDS morbidity and mortality in extremely vulnerable populations and should be considered an essential intervention to achieve AIDS-related sustainable development goals by 2030.

Incidence and risk factors of tuberculosis among 420 854 household contacts of patients with tuberculosis in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (2004-18): a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although household contacts of patients with tuberculosis are known to be particularly vulnerable to tuberculosis, the published evidence focused on this group at high risk within the low-income and middle-income country context remains sparse. Using nationwide data from Brazil, we aimed to estimate the incidence and investigate the socioeconomic and clinical determinants of tuberculosis in a cohort of contacts of tuberculosis patients. METHODS: In this cohort study, we linked individual socioeconomic and demographic data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort to mortality data and tuberculosis registries, identified contacts of tuberculosis index patients diagnosed from Jan 1, 2004 to Dec 31, 2018, and followed up the contacts until the contact's subsequent tuberculosis diagnosis, the contact's death, or Dec 31, 2018. We investigated factors associated with active tuberculosis using multilevel Poisson regressions, allowing for municipality-level and household-level random effects. FINDINGS: We studied 420 854 household contacts of 137 131 tuberculosis index patients. During the 15 years of follow-up (median 4·4 years [IQR 1·9-7·6]), we detected 8953 contacts with tuberculosis. The tuberculosis incidence among contacts was 427·8 per 100 000 person-years at risk (95% CI 419·1-436·8), 16-times higher than the incidence in the general population (26·2 [26·1-26·3]) and the risk was prolonged. Tuberculosis incidence was associated with the index patient being preschool aged (<5 years; adjusted risk ratio 4·15 [95% CI 3·26-5·28]) or having pulmonary tuberculosis (2·84 [2·55-3·17]). INTERPRETATION: The high and sustained risk of tuberculosis among contacts reinforces the need to systematically expand and strengthen contact tracing and preventive treatment policies in Brazil in order to achieve national and international targets for tuberculosis elimination. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and Brazilian Ministry of Health.

Presidential election results in 2018-2022 and its association with excess mortality during the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic in Brazilian municipalities / Resultados das eleições presidenciais em 2018-2022 e sua associação com o excesso de mortalidade durante a pandemia da COVID-19 em 2020-2021 nos municípios brasileiros / Resultados de las elecciones presidenciales en 2018-2022 y su asociación con el exceso de mortalidad durante la pandemia del COVID-19 en 2020-2021 en los municipios brasileños

Abstract: We evaluated the hypothesis of an association between excess mortality and political partisanship in Brazil using municipal death certificates registered in the Brazilian Ministry of Health database and first-round electoral results of Presidential elections in 2018 and 2022. Considering the former Brazilian President's stance of discrediting and neglecting the severity of the pandemic, we expect a possible relationship between excessive mortality rates during the COVID-19 health crisis and the number of municipal votes for Bolsonaro. Our results showed that, in both elections, the first-round percentage of municipal votes for Bolsonaro was positively associated with the peaks of excess deaths across Brazilian municipalities in 2020 and 2021. Despite the excess mortality during the pandemic, the political loyalty to Bolsonaro remained the same during the electoral period of 2022. A possible explanation for this is linked to the Brazilian political scenario, which presents an environment of tribal politics and affective polarization.

Resumo: Usando dados municipais em declarações de óbito registrados no Ministério da Saúde e resultados eleitorais do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais de 2018 e 2022, avaliamos a hipótese de que há associação entre excesso de mortalidade e partidarismo político no Brasil. Dada a postura do ex-presidente brasileiro de desacreditar e negligenciar a gravidade da pandemia, esperamos que haja possivelmente uma relação entre as taxas excessivas de mortalidade durante a crise sanitária da COVID-19 e o número de votos municipais para Bolsonaro. Nossos resultados mostraram que, em ambas as eleições, o percentual de votos municipais no primeiro turno para Bolsonaro foi positivamente associado aos picos de excesso de mortes nos municípios brasileiros em 2020 e 2021. Mesmo com o excesso de mortalidade durante a pandemia, a lealdade política de Bolsonaro não diminuiu durante o segundo período eleitoral em 2022. Uma possível explicação para isso está ligada ao cenário político brasileiro, que vive um ambiente de política tribal e polarização afetiva.

Resumen: A partir de datos municipales sobre certificados de defunción registrados en el Ministerio de Salud de Brasil y de los resultados electorales de la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de 2018 y 2022, se evaluó si existe una asociación entre el exceso de mortalidad y el partidismo político en Brasil. Ante la postura del ex presidente brasileño de desacreditar y desatender la gravedad de la pandemia, probablemente exista una relación entre las altas tasas de mortalidad durante la crisis de salud del COVID-19 y el número de votos municipales para Bolsonaro. Los resultados demostraron que, en ambas elecciones, el porcentaje de votos municipales en la primera vuelta para Bolsonaro estuvo asociado positivamente con los picos de alta de muertes en los municipios brasileños para el período 2020-2021. Incluso con la alta mortalidad durante la pandemia, la lealtad política de Bolsonaro no disminuyó durante el segundo período electoral en 2022. Una de las posibles explicaciones es que esto se vincula al escenario político brasileño, que vive una política tribal y polarización afectiva.

Participation in Conditional Cash Transfer Program During Pregnancy and Birth Weight-Related Outcomes.

Importance: There is limited evidence of the association of conditional cash transfers, an important strategy to reduce poverty, with prevention of adverse birth-related outcomes. Objective: To investigate the association between receiving benefits from the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) and birth weight indicators. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a linked data resource, the Centro de Integracao de Dados e Conhecimentos Para Saude (CIDACS) birth cohort. All live-born singleton infants born to mothers registered in the cohort between January 2012 and December 2015 were included. Each analysis was conducted for the overall population and separately by level of education, self-reported maternal race, and number of prenatal appointments. Data were analyzed from January 3 to April 24, 2023. Exposure: Live births of mothers who had received BFP until delivery (for a minimum of 9 months) were classified as exposed and compared with live births from mothers who did not receive the benefit prior to delivery. Main Outcomes and Measures: Low birth weight (LBW), birth weight in grams, and small for gestational age (SGA) were evaluated. Analytical methods used included propensity score estimation, kernel matching, and weighted logistic and linear regressions. Race categories included Parda, which translates from Portuguese as "brown" and is used to denote individuals whose racial background is predominantly Black and those with multiracial or multiethnic ancestry, including European, African, and Indigenous origins. Results: A total of 4 277 523 live births (2 085 737 females [48.8%]; 15 207 among Asian [0.4%], 334 225 among Black [7.8%], 29 115 among Indigenous [0.7%], 2 588 363 among Parda [60.5%], and 1 310 613 among White [30.6%] mothers) were assessed. BFP was associated with an increase of 17.76 g (95% CI, 16.52-19.01 g) in birth weight. Beneficiaries had an 11% lower chance of LBW (odds ratio [OR], 0.89; 95% CI, 0.88-0.90). BFP was associated with a greater decrease in odds of LBW among subgroups of mothers who attended fewer than 7 appointments (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.84-0.87), were Indigenous (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.61-0.88), and had 3 or less years of education (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.72-0.81). There was no association between BFP and SGA, except among less educated mothers, who had a reduced risk of SGA (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.79-0.88). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that BFP was associated with increased birth weight and reduced odds of LBW, with a greater decrease in odds of LBW among higher-risk groups. These findings suggest the importance of maintaining financial support for mothers at increased risk of birth weight-related outcomes.

The effect of primary health care on AIDS incidence and mortality: a cohort study of 3.4 million Brazilians.

Background: Primary Health Care (PHC) is essential for the health and wellbeing of people living with HIV/AIDS. This study evaluated the effects of one of the largest community-based PHC programs in the world, the Brazilian Family Health Strategy (FHS), on AIDS incidence and mortality. Methods: A retrospective cohort study carried out in Brazil, from January 1 2007 to December 31 2015. We conducted a quasi-experimental effect evaluation using a cohort of 3,435,068 ≥13 years low-income individuals who were members of the 100 Million Brazilians Cohort, linked to AIDS diagnoses and deaths registries. We evaluated the effect of FHS on AIDS incidence and mortality and comparing outcomes between residents of municipalities with no FHS coverage with those in municipalities with full FHS coverage. We used multivariable Poisson regressions adjusted for all relevant municipal and individual-level demographic, socioeconomic, and contextual variables, and weighted with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). We also estimated FHS effect by sex and age, and performed a wide range of sensitivity and triangulation analyses. Findings: FHS coverage was associated with lower AIDS incidence (rate ratio [RR]:0.76, 95%CI:0.68-0.84) and mortality (RR:0.68,95%CI:0.56-0.82). FHS effect was similar between men and women, but was larger in people aged ≥35 years old both for incidence (RR 0.62, 95%CI:0.53-0.72) and mortality (RR 0.56, 95%CI:0.43-0.72). Conclusions: AIDS should be an avoidable outcome for most people living with HIV today, and our study shows that FHS coverage could significantly reduce AIDS incidence and mortality among low-income populations in Brazil. Universal access to comprehensive healthcare through community-based PHC programs should be promoted to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of ending AIDS by 2030.

Maternal and congenital syphilis attributable to ethnoracial inequalities: a national record-linkage longitudinal study of 15 million births in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: This study estimated ethnoracial inequalities in maternal and congenital syphilis in Brazil, understanding race as a relational category product of a sociopolitical construct that functions as an essential tool of racism and its manifestations. METHODS: We linked routinely collected data from Jan 1, 2012 to Dec 31, 2017 to conduct a population-based study in Brazil. We estimated the attributable fraction of race (skin colour) for the entire population and specific subgroups compared with White women using adjusted logistic regression. We also obtained the attributable fraction of the intersection between two social markers (race and education) and compared it with White women with more than 12 years of education as the baseline. FINDINGS: Of 15 810 488 birth records, 144 564 women had maternal syphilis and 79 580 had congenital syphilis. If all women had the same baseline risk as White women, 35% (95% CI 34·89-36·10) of all maternal syphilis and 41% (40·49-42·09) of all congenital syphilis would have been prevented. Compared with other ethnoracial categories, these percentages were higher among Parda/Brown women (46% [45·74-47·20] of maternal syphilis and 52% [51·09-52·93] of congenital syphilis would have been prevented) and Black women (61% [60·25-61·75] of maternal syphilis and 67% [65·87-67·60] of congenital syphilis would have been prevented). If all ethnoracial groups had the same risk as White women with more than 12 years of education, 87% of all maternal syphilis and 89% of all congenital syphilis would have been prevented. INTERPRETATION: Only through effective control of maternal syphilis among populations at higher risk (eg, Black and Parda/Brown women with lower educational levels) can WHO's global health initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis be made feasible. Recognising that racism and other intersecting forms of oppression affect the lives of minoritised groups and advocating for actions through the lens of intersectionality is imperative for attaining and guaranteeing health equity. Achieving health equality needs to be addressed to achieve syphilis control. Given the scale and complexity of the problem (which is unlikely to be unique to Brazil), structural issues and social markers of oppression, such as race and education, must be considered to prevent maternal and congenital syphilis and improve maternal and child outcomes globally. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, CNPq-Brazil. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Cesarean sections and early-term births according to Robson classification: a population-based study with more than 17 million births in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Cesarean section (CS) rates are increasing worldwide and are associated with negative maternal and child health outcomes when performed without medical indication. However, there is still limited knowledge about the association between high CS rates and early-term births. This study explored the association between CSs and early-term births according to the Robson classification. METHODS: A population-based, cross-sectional study was performed with routine registration data of live births in Brazil between 2012 and 2019. We used the Robson classification system to compare groups with expected high and low CS rates. We used propensity scores to compare CSs to vaginal deliveries (1:1) and estimated associations with early-term births using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 17,081,685 live births were included. Births via CS had higher odds of early-term birth (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.32-1.32) compared to vaginal deliveries. Births by CS to women in Group 2 (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.49-1.51) and 4 (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.56-1.58) showed the highest odds of early-term birth, compared to vaginal deliveries. Increased odds of an early-term birth were also observed among births by CS to women in Group 3 (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.29-1.31), compared to vaginal deliveries. In addition, live births by CS to women with a previous CS (Group 5 - OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.35-1.37), a single breech pregnancy (Group 6 - OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.11-1.21, and Group 7 - OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.16-1.23), and multiple pregnancies (Group 8 - OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.40-1.52) had high odds of an early-term birth, compared to live births by vaginal delivery. CONCLUSIONS: CSs were associated with increased odds of early-term births. The highest odds of early-term birth were observed among those births by CS in Robson Groups 2 and 4.

Municipality-level measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine coverage and deprivation in Brazil: A nationwide ecological study, 2006 to 2020.

To better understand the declining rates of routine childhood vaccination in Brazil, we investigated the association between measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) first dose vaccine coverage and deprivation at the municipality level. Using routinely collected data from 5565 Brazilian municipalities from 2006 to 2020, we investigated the association between municipality-level MMR vaccine first dose coverage (i.e., as a continuous variable and as a percentage of municipalities attaining the 95% target coverage) in relation to quintiles of municipality-level deprivation, measured by the Brazilian Deprivation Index (Índice Brasileiro de Privação, IBP), and geographic regions. From 2006 to 2020, the mean municipality-level MMR vaccine coverage declined across all deprivation quintiles and regions of Brazil, by an average of 1.2% per year. The most deprived quintile of municipalities had higher coverage on average, but also the steepest declines in coverage (i.e., an annual decline of 1.64% versus 0.61% in the least deprived quintile) in the period of 2006-2020, and the largest drop in coverage at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2020). Across all deprivation quintiles and regions (except for the Southeast region), less than 50% of municipalities in Brazil met the 95% MMR coverage target in 2020.The decrease in MMR first dose vaccine coverage in Brazil is widespread, but steeper declines have been observed in the most deprived municipalities. To promote vaccine equity and prevent future outbreaks, further research is urgently needed to understand the causal mechanisms underlying the observed associations between municipality-level MMR vaccine coverage and deprivation.

A completeness indicator of gestational and congenital syphilis information in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the quality of information on gestational syphilis (GS) and congenital syphilis (CS) on the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN-Syphilis Brazil - Notifiable Diseases Information System) by compiling and validating completeness indicators between 2007 and 2018. METHODS: Overall, care, and socioeconomic completeness scores were compiled based on selected variables, by using ad hoc weights assigned by experts. The completeness scores were analysed, considering the region and area of residence, the pregnant woman's race/colour, and the year of case notification. Pearson's correlation coefficients were used to validate the scores obtained by the weighted average method, compared with the values obtained by principal component analysis (PCA). RESULTS: Most selected variables presented a good or excellent degree of completeness for GS and CS, except for clinical classification, pregnant woman's level of education, partner's treatment, and child's race/colour, which were classified as poor or very poor. The overall (89.93% versus 89.69%) and socioeconomic (88.71% versus 88.24%) completeness scores for GS and CS, respectively, were classified as regular, whereas the care score (GS-90.88%, and CS-90.72%) was good, despite improvements over time. Differences in the overall, care and socioeconomic completeness scores according to region, area of residence, and ethnic-racial groups were reported for syphilis notifications. The completeness scores estimated by the weighted average method and PCA showed a strong linear correlation (> 0.90). CONCLUSION: The completeness of GS and CS notifications has been improving in recent years, highlighting the variables that form the care score, compared with the socioeconomic scores, despite differences between regions, area of residence, and ethnic-racial groups. The weighted average was a viable methodological alternative easily operationalised to estimate data completeness scores, allowing routine monitoring of the completeness of gestational and congenital syphilis records.

Estimating the real burden of gestational syphilis in Brazil, 2007-2018: a Bayesian modeling study.

Background: Although several studies have estimated gestational syphilis (GS) incidence in several countries, underreporting correction is rarely considered. This study aimed to estimate the level of under-registration and correct the GS incidence rates in the 557 Brazilian microregions. Methods: Brazilian GS notifications between 2007 and 2018 were obtained from the SINAN-Syphilis system. A cluster analysis was performed to group microregions according to the quality of GS notification. A Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model was applied to estimate the reporting probabilities among the clusters and to correct the associated incidence rates. Findings: We estimate that 45,196 (90%-HPD: 13,299; 79,310) GS cases were underreported in Brazil from 2007 to 2018, representing a coverage of 87.12% (90%-HPD: 79.40%; 95.83%) of registered cases, where HPD stands for the Bayesian highest posterior density credible interval. Underreporting levels differ across the country, with microregions in North and Northeast regions presenting the highest percentage of missed cases. After underreporting correction, Brazil's estimated GS incidence rate increased from 8.74 to 10.02 per 1000 live births in the same period. Interpretation: Our findings highlight disparities in the registration level and incidence rate of GS in Brazil, reflecting regional heterogeneity in the quality of syphilis surveillance, access to prenatal care, and childbirth assistance services. This study provides robust evidence to enhance national surveillance systems, guide specific policies for GS detection disease control, and potentially mitigate the harmful consequences of mother-to-child transmission. The methodology might be applied in other regions to correct disease underreporting. Funding: National Council for Scientific and Technological Development; The Bill Melinda Gates Foundation and Wellcome Trust.

The effects of social determinants of health on acquired immune deficiency syndrome in a low-income population of Brazil: a retrospective cohort study of 28.3 million individuals.

Background: Social determinants of health (SDH) include factors such as income, education, and race, that could significantly affect the human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). Studies on the effects of SDH on HIV/AIDS are limited, and do not yet provide a systematic understanding of how the various SDH act on important indicators of HIV/AIDS progression. We aimed to evaluate the effects of SDH on AIDS morbidity and mortality. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 28.3 million individuals was evaluated over a 9-year period (from 2007 to 2015). Multivariable Poisson regression, with a hierarchical approach, was used to estimate the effects of SDH-at the individual and familial level-on AIDS incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rates. Findings: A total of 28,318,532 individuals, representing the low-income Brazilian population, were assessed, who had a mean age of 36.18 (SD: 16.96) years, 52.69% (14,920,049) were female, 57.52% (15,360,569) were pardos, 34.13% (9,113,222) were white/Asian, 7.77% (2,075,977) were black, and 0.58% (154,146) were indigenous. Specific socioeconomic, household, and geographic factors were significantly associated with AIDS-related outcomes. Less wealth was strongly associated with a higher AIDS incidence (rate ratios-RR: 1.55; 95% confidence interval-CI: 1.43-1.68) and mortality (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.70-2.34). Lower educational attainment was also greatly associated with higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.26-1.68), mortality (RR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.99-3.82) and case-fatality rates (RR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.31-4.01). Being black was associated with a higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.45-1.61), mortality (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.57-1.83) and case-fatality rates (RR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.03-1.32). Overall, also considering the other SDH, individuals experiencing greater levels of socioeconomic deprivation were, by far, more likely to acquire AIDS, and to die from it. Interpretation: In the population studied, SDH related to poverty and social vulnerability are strongly associated with a higher burden of HIV/AIDS, most notably less wealth, illiteracy, and being black. In the absence of relevant social protection policies, the current worldwide increase in poverty and inequalities-due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of war in the Ukraine-could reverse progress made in the fight against HIV/AIDS in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Funding: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NAIDS), National Institutes of Health (NIH), US Grant Number: 1R01AI152938.

Subsidised housing and diabetes mortality: a retrospective cohort study of 10 million low-income adults in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Housing-related factors can be predictors of health, including of diabetes outcomes. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and diabetes mortality among a large cohort of low-income adults in Brazil. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cohort of 9 961 271 low-income adults, observed from January 2010 to December 2015, was created from Brazilian administrative records of social programmes and death certificates. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and time to diabetes mortality using a Cox model with inverse probability of treatment weighting and regression adjustment. We assessed inequalities in this association by groups of municipality Human Development Index. Diabetes mortality included diabetes both as the underlying or a contributory cause of death. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean age of the cohort was 40.3 years (SD 15.6 years), with a majority of women (58.4%). During 29 238 920 person-years of follow-up, there were 18 775 deaths with diabetes as the underlying or a contributory cause. 340 683 participants (3.4% of the cohort) received subsidised housing. Subsidised housing residents had a higher hazard of diabetes mortality compared with non-residents (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31). The magnitude of this association was more pronounced among participants living in municipalities with lower Human Development Index (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Subsidised housing residents had a greater risk of diabetes mortality, particularly those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities. This finding suggests the need to intensify diabetes prevention and control actions and prompt treatment of the diabetes complications among subsidised housing residents, particularly among those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities.