Prophage maintenance is determined by environment-dependent selective sweeps rather than mutational availability.

Prophages, viral sequences integrated into bacterial genomes, can be beneficial and costly. Despite the risk of prophage activation and subsequent bacterial death, active prophages are present in most bacterial genomes. However, our understanding of the selective forces that maintain prophages in bacterial populations is limited. Combining experimental evolution with stochastic modeling, we show that prophage maintenance and loss are primarily determined by environmental conditions that alter the net fitness effect of a prophage on its bacterial host. When prophages are too costly, they are rapidly lost through environment-specific sequences of selective sweeps. Conflicting selection pressures that select against the prophage but for a prophage-encoded accessory gene can maintain prophages. The dynamics of prophage maintenance additionally depend on the sociality of this accessory gene. Prophage-encoded genes that exclusively benefit the lysogen maintain prophages at higher frequencies compared with genes that benefit the entire population. That is because the latter can protect phage-free "cheaters," reducing the benefit of maintaining the prophage. Our simulations suggest that environmental variation plays a larger role than mutation rates in determining prophage maintenance. These findings highlight the complexity of selection pressures that act on mobile genetic elements and challenge our understanding of the role of environmental factors relative to random chance events in shaping the evolutionary trajectory of bacterial populations. By shedding light on the key factors that shape microbial populations in the face of environmental changes, our study significantly advances our understanding of the complex dynamics of microbial evolution and diversification.

Bacteriophage ecology: Getting a head start on genomic competitors.

Temperate bacteriophages can actively replicate in bacterial host cells or lie dormant as prophages. Prophages inhabiting the same cell will then compete for cellular resources. A recent study indicates that prophages could circumvent this competition by responding to distinct activation cues.

The pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling framework as a tool to predict drug resistance evolution.

Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) models, which describe how drug concentrations change over time and how that affects pathogen growth, have proven highly valuable in designing optimal drug treatments aimed at bacterial eradication. However, the fast rise of antimicrobial resistance calls for increased focus on an additional treatment optimization criterion: avoidance of resistance evolution. We demonstrate here how coupling PKPD and population genetics models can be used to determine treatment regimens that minimize the potential for antimicrobial resistance evolution. Importantly, the resulting modelling framework enables the assessment of resistance evolution in response to dynamic selection pressures, including changes in antimicrobial concentration and the emergence of adaptive phenotypes. Using antibiotics and antimicrobial peptides as an example, we discuss the empirical evidence and intuition behind individual model parameters. We further suggest several extensions of this framework that allow a more comprehensive and realistic prediction of bacterial escape from antimicrobials through various phenotypic and genetic mechanisms.

Assessing the relative importance of bacterial resistance, persistence and hyper-mutation for antibiotic treatment failure.

To curb the rising threat of antimicrobial resistance, we need to understand the routes to antimicrobial treatment failure. Bacteria can survive treatment by using both genetic and phenotypic mechanisms to diminish the effect of antimicrobials. We assemble empirical data showing that, for example, Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections frequently contain persisters, transiently non-growing cells unaffected by antibiotics (AB) and hyper-mutators, mutants with elevated mutation rates, and thus higher probability of genetic resistance emergence. Resistance, persistence and hyper-mutation dynamics are difficult to disentangle experimentally. Hence, we use stochastic population modelling and deterministic fitness calculations to investigate the relative importance of genetic and phenotypic mechanisms for immediate treatment failure and establishment of prolonged, chronic infections. We find that persistence causes 'hidden' treatment failure with very low cell numbers if antimicrobial concentrations prevent growth of genetically resistant cells. Persister cells can regrow after treatment is discontinued and allow for resistance evolution in the absence of AB. This leads to different mutational routes during treatment and relapse of an infection. By contrast, hyper-mutation facilitates resistance evolution during treatment, but rarely contributes to treatment failure. Our findings highlight the time and concentration dependence of different bacterial mechanisms to escape AB killing, which should be considered when designing 'failure-proof' treatments.

Phenotypic flux: The role of physiology in explaining the conundrum of bacterial persistence amid phage attack.

Bacteriophages, the viruses of bacteria, have been studied for over a century. They were not only instrumental in laying the foundations of molecular biology, but they are also likely to play crucial roles in shaping our biosphere and may offer a solution to the control of drug-resistant bacterial infections. However, it remains challenging to predict the conditions for bacterial eradication by phage predation, sometimes even under well-defined laboratory conditions, and, most curiously, if the majority of surviving cells are genetically phage-susceptible. Here, I propose that even clonal phage and bacterial populations are generally in a state of continuous 'phenotypic flux', which is caused by transient and nongenetic variation in phage and bacterial physiology. Phenotypic flux can shape phage infection dynamics by reducing the force of infection to an extent that allows for coexistence between phages and susceptible bacteria. Understanding the mechanisms and impact of phenotypic flux may be key to providing a complete picture of phage-bacteria coexistence. I review the empirical evidence for phenotypic variation in phage and bacterial physiology together with the ways they have been modeled and discuss the potential implications of phenotypic flux for ecological and evolutionary dynamics between phages and bacteria, as well as for phage therapy.

Conjugative plasmid transfer is limited by prophages but can be overcome by high conjugation rates.

Antibiotic resistance spread via plasmids is a serious threat to successfully fight infections and makes understanding plasmid transfer in nature crucial to prevent the rise of antibiotic resistance. Studies addressing the dynamics of plasmid conjugation have yet neglected one omnipresent factor: prophages (viruses integrated into bacterial genomes), whose activation can kill host and surrounding bacterial cells. To investigate the impact of prophages on conjugation, we combined experiments and mathematical modelling. Using Escherichia coli, prophage λ and the multidrug-resistant plasmid RP4 we find that prophages can substantially limit the spread of conjugative plasmids. This inhibitory effect was strongly dependent on environmental conditions and bacterial genetic background. Our empirically parameterized model reproduced experimental dynamics of cells acquiring either the prophage or the plasmid well but could only reproduce the number of cells acquiring both elements by assuming complex interactions between conjugative plasmids and prophages in sequential infections. Varying phage and plasmid infection parameters over empirically realistic ranges revealed that plasmids can overcome the negative impact of prophages through high conjugation rates. Overall, the presence of prophages introduces an additional death rate for plasmid carriers, the magnitude of which is determined in non-trivial ways by the environment, the phage and the plasmid. This article is part of the theme issue 'The secret lives of microbial mobile genetic elements'.

Plasmid co-infection: linking biological mechanisms to ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

As infectious agents of bacteria and vehicles of horizontal gene transfer, plasmids play a key role in bacterial ecology and evolution. Plasmid dynamics are shaped not only by plasmid-host interactions but also by ecological interactions between plasmid variants. These interactions are complex: plasmids can co-infect the same cell and the consequences for the co-resident plasmid can be either beneficial or detrimental. Many of the biological processes that govern plasmid co-infection-from systems that exclude infection by other plasmids to interactions in the regulation of plasmid copy number-are well characterized at a mechanistic level. Modelling plays a central role in translating such mechanistic insights into predictions about plasmid dynamics and the impact of these dynamics on bacterial evolution. Theoretical work in evolutionary epidemiology has shown that formulating models of co-infection is not trivial, as some modelling choices can introduce unintended ecological assumptions. Here, we review how the biological processes that govern co-infection can be represented in a mathematical model, discuss potential modelling pitfalls, and analyse this model to provide general insights into how co-infection impacts ecological and evolutionary outcomes. In particular, we demonstrate how beneficial and detrimental effects of co-infection give rise to frequency-dependent selection on plasmid variants. This article is part of the theme issue 'The secret lives of microbial mobile genetic elements'.

Multi-step vs. single-step resistance evolution under different drugs, pharmacokinetics, and treatment regimens.

The success of antimicrobial treatment is threatened by the evolution of drug resistance. Population genetic models are an important tool in mitigating that threat. However, most such models consider resistance emergence via a single mutational step. Here, we assembled experimental evidence that drug resistance evolution follows two patterns: (i) a single mutation, which provides a large resistance benefit, or (ii) multiple mutations, each conferring a small benefit, which combine to yield high-level resistance. Using stochastic modeling, we then investigated the consequences of these two patterns for treatment failure and population diversity under various treatments. We find that resistance evolution is substantially limited if more than two mutations are required and that the extent of this limitation depends on the combination of drug type and pharmacokinetic profile. Further, if multiple mutations are necessary, adaptive treatment, which only suppresses the bacterial population, delays treatment failure due to resistance for a longer time than aggressive treatment, which aims at eradication.

The rise in antibiotic resistance is threatening our ability to treat bacterial infections. Bacteria often evolve resistance by acquiring new genetic mutations during the treatment period. Understanding how resistance emerges and spreads through a bacterial population is crucial to prevent antibiotic drugs from failing. Mathematical models are a useful tool for exploring how bacteria will respond to antibiotics and assessing the risk of resistance. Usually, these models only consider instances where bacteria acquire one genetic mutation that makes them virtually impervious to treatment. But, in nature, this is not the only possibility. Although some mutations do give bacteria a high level of resistance, numerous others only provide small amounts of protection against the drug. If these mutations accumulate in the same bacterial cell, their effects can combine to make the strain highly resistant to treatment. But it was unclear how the emergence of multiple mutations affects the risk of treatment failure and the diversity of the bacterial population. To answer this question, Igler et al. devised a mathematical model in which each bacterium is able to mutate multiple times during the treatment period. The model revealed that if one mutation provides a high level of resistance on its own, the risk of bacteria surviving treatment is very high. But, if it takes more than two mutations to achieve a high level of resistance, the risk drops to almost nothing. Igler et al. also found that the chance of bacteria evolving high enough resistance is affected by the type of antibiotics used and how fast the drug decays. With low-level resistance mutations, adapting treatment to maintain an acceptable number of sensitive bacteria as competitors for (a small number of) resistant bacteria was more effective at delaying treatment failure than trying to kill all the bacteria at once. These findings suggest that adjusting the treatment strategy used for bacterial infections according to the proportion of low- and high-level resistance mutations could slow down the evolution of resistance. To apply these models in the real world, it will be important to measure the level of resistance conferred by single mutations. The type of models used here could also predict the response of other diseases that resist treatment, such as cancer.

Evolutionary potential of transcription factors for gene regulatory rewiring.

Gene regulatory networks evolve through rewiring of individual components-that is, through changes in regulatory connections. However, the mechanistic basis of regulatory rewiring is poorly understood. Using a canonical gene regulatory system, we quantify the properties of transcription factors that determine the evolutionary potential for rewiring of regulatory connections: robustness, tunability and evolvability. In vivo repression measurements of two repressors at mutated operator sites reveal their contrasting evolutionary potential: while robustness and evolvability were positively correlated, both were in trade-off with tunability. Epistatic interactions between adjacent operators alleviated this trade-off. A thermodynamic model explains how the differences in robustness, tunability and evolvability arise from biophysical characteristics of repressor-DNA binding. The model also uncovers that the energy matrix, which describes how mutations affect repressor-DNA binding, encodes crucial information about the evolutionary potential of a repressor. The biophysical determinants of evolutionary potential for regulatory rewiring constitute a mechanistic framework for understanding network evolution.

Epistatic Interactions in the Arabinose Cis-Regulatory Element.

Changes in gene expression are an important mode of evolution; however, the proximate mechanism of these changes is poorly understood. In particular, little is known about the effects of mutations within cis binding sites for transcription factors, or the nature of epistatic interactions between these mutations. Here, we tested the effects of single and double mutants in two cis binding sites involved in the transcriptional regulation of the Escherichia coli araBAD operon, a component of arabinose metabolism, using a synthetic system. This system decouples transcriptional control from any posttranslational effects on fitness, allowing a precise estimate of the effect of single and double mutations, and hence epistasis, on gene expression. We found that epistatic interactions between mutations in the araBAD cis-regulatory element are common, and that the predominant form of epistasis is negative. The magnitude of the interactions depended on whether the mutations are located in the same or in different operator sites. Importantly, these epistatic interactions were dependent on the presence of arabinose, a native inducer of the araBAD operon in vivo, with some interactions changing in sign (e.g., from negative to positive) in its presence. This study thus reveals that mutations in even relatively simple cis-regulatory elements interact in complex ways such that selection on the level of gene expression in one environment might perturb regulation in the other environment in an unpredictable and uncorrelated manner.