The airborne transmission of viruses causes tight transmission bottlenecks.

The transmission bottleneck describes the number of viral particles that initiate an infection in a new host. Previous studies have used genome sequence data to suggest that transmission bottlenecks for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 involve few viral particles, but the general principles of virus transmission are not fully understood. Here we show that, across a broad range of circumstances, tight transmission bottlenecks are a simple consequence of the physical process of airborne viral transmission. We use mathematical modelling to describe the physical process of the emission and inhalation of infectious particles, deriving the result that that the great majority of transmission bottlenecks involve few viral particles. While exceptions to this rule exist, the circumstances needed to create these exceptions are likely very rare. We thus provide a physical explanation for previous inferences of bottleneck size, while predicting that tight transmission bottlenecks prevail more generally in respiratory virus transmission.

Genetic consequences of effective and suboptimal dosing with mutagenic drugs in a hamster model of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Mutagenic antiviral drugs have shown promise against multiple viruses, but concerns have been raised about whether their use might promote the emergence of new and harmful viral variants. Recently, genetic signatures associated with molnupiravir use have been identified in the global SARS-COV-2 population. Here, we examine the consequences of using favipiravir and molnupiravir to treat SARS-CoV-2 infection in a hamster model, comparing viral genome sequence data collected from (1) untreated hamsters, and (2) from hamsters receiving effective and suboptimal doses of treatment. We identify a broadly linear relationship between drug dose and the extent of variation in treated viral populations, with a high proportion of this variation being composed of variants at frequencies of less than 1 per cent, below typical thresholds for variant calling. Treatment with an effective dose of antiviral drug was associated with a gain of between 7 and 10 variants per viral genome relative to drug-free controls: even after a short period of treatment a population founded by a transmitted virus could contain multiple sequence differences to that of the original host. Treatment with a suboptimal dose of drug showed intermediate gains of variants. No dose-dependent signal was identified in the numbers of single-nucleotide variants reaching frequencies in excess of 5 per cent. We did not find evidence to support the emergence of drug resistance or of novel immune phenotypes. Our study suggests that where onward transmission occurs, a short period of treatment with mutagenic drugs may be sufficient to generate a significant increase in the number of viral variants transmitted.

A qualitative process evaluation using the behaviour change wheel approach: Did a whole genome sequence report form (SRF) used to reduce nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 within UK hospitals operate as anticipated?

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to conduct a process evaluation of a whole-genome sequence report form (SRF) used to reduce nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 through changing infection prevention and control (IPC) behaviours within the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We used a three-staged design. Firstly, we described and theorized the purported content of the SRF using the behaviour change wheel (BCW). Secondly, we used inductive thematic analysis of one-to-one interviews (n = 39) to explore contextual accounts of using the SRF. Thirdly, further deductive analysis gauged support for the intervention working as earlier anticipated. RESULTS: It was possible to theorize the SRF using the BCW approach and visualize it within a simple logic model. Inductive thematic analyses identified the SRF's acceptability, ease of use and perceived effectiveness. However, major challenges to embedding it in routine practice during the unfolding COVID-19 crisis were reported. Notwithstanding this insight, deductive analysis showed support for the putative intervention functions 'Education', 'Persuasion' and 'Enablement'; behaviour change techniques '1.2 Problem solving', '2.6 Biofeedback', '2.7 Feedback on outcomes of behaviour' and '7.1 Prompts and cues'; and theoretical domains framework domains 'Knowledge' and 'Behavioural regulation'. CONCLUSIONS: Our process evaluation of the SRF, using the BCW approach to describe and theorize its content, provided granular support for the SRF working to change IPC behaviours as anticipated. However, our complementary inductive thematic analysis highlighted the importance of the local context in constraining its routine use. For SRFs to reach their full potential in reducing nosocomial infections, further implementation research is needed.

An entropic safety catch controls hepatitis C virus entry and antibody resistance.

E1 and E2 (E1E2), the fusion proteins of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV), are unlike that of any other virus yet described, and the detailed molecular mechanisms of HCV entry/fusion remain unknown. Hypervariable region-1 (HVR-1) of E2 is a putative intrinsically disordered protein tail. Here, we demonstrate that HVR-1 has an autoinhibitory function that suppresses the activity of E1E2 on free virions; this is dependent on its conformational entropy. Thus, HVR-1 is akin to a safety catch that prevents premature triggering of E1E2 activity. Crucially, this mechanism is turned off by host receptor interactions at the cell surface to allow entry. Mutations that reduce conformational entropy in HVR-1, or genetic deletion of HVR-1, turn off the safety catch to generate hyper-reactive HCV that exhibits enhanced virus entry but is thermally unstable and acutely sensitive to neutralising antibodies. Therefore, the HVR-1 safety catch controls the efficiency of virus entry and maintains resistance to neutralising antibodies. This discovery provides an explanation for the ability of HCV to persist in the face of continual immune assault and represents a novel regulatory mechanism that is likely to be found in other viral fusion machinery.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a university outbreak setting and implications for public health planning.

Whole genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has occurred at an unprecedented scale, and can be exploited for characterising outbreak risks at the fine-scale needed to inform control strategies. One setting at continued risk of COVID-19 outbreaks are higher education institutions, associated with student movements at the start of term, close living conditions within residential halls, and high social contact rates. Here we analysed SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences in combination with epidemiological data to investigate a large cluster of student cases associated with University of Glasgow accommodation in autumn 2020, Scotland. We identified 519 student cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with this large cluster through contact tracing data, with 30% sequencing coverage for further analysis. We estimated at least 11 independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the student population, with four comprising the majority of detected cases and consistent with separate outbreaks. These four outbreaks were curtailed within a week following implementation of control measures. The impact of student infections on the local community was short-term despite an underlying increase in community infections. Our study highlights the need for context-specific information in the formation of public health policy for higher educational settings.

Transmission of B.1.617.2 Delta variant between vaccinated healthcare workers.

Breakthrough infections with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant have been reported in doubly-vaccinated recipients and as re-infections. Studies of viral spread within hospital settings have highlighted the potential for transmission between doubly-vaccinated patients and health care workers and have highlighted the benefits of high-grade respiratory protection for health care workers. However the extent to which vaccination is preventative of viral spread in health care settings is less well studied. Here, we analysed data from 118 vaccinated health care workers (HCW) across two hospitals in India, constructing two probable transmission networks involving six HCWs in Hospital A and eight HCWs in Hospital B from epidemiological and virus genome sequence data, using a suite of computational approaches. A maximum likelihood reconstruction of transmission involving known cases of infection suggests a high probability that doubly vaccinated HCWs transmitted SARS-CoV-2 between each other and highlights potential cases of virus transmission between individuals who had received two doses of vaccine. Our findings show firstly that vaccination may reduce rates of transmission, supporting the need for ongoing infection control measures even in highly vaccinated populations, and secondly we have described a novel approach to identifying transmissions that is scalable and rapid, without the need for an infection control infrastructure.

A2B-COVID: A Tool for Rapidly Evaluating Potential SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Events.

Identifying linked cases of infection is a critical component of the public health response to viral infectious diseases. In a clinical context, there is a need to make rapid assessments of whether cases of infection have arrived independently onto a ward, or are potentially linked via direct transmission. Viral genome sequence data are of great value in making these assessments, but are often not the only form of data available. Here, we describe A2B-COVID, a method for the rapid identification of potentially linked cases of COVID-19 infection designed for clinical settings. Our method combines knowledge about infection dynamics, data describing the movements of individuals, and evolutionary analysis of genome sequences to assess whether data collected from cases of infection are consistent or inconsistent with linkage via direct transmission. A retrospective analysis of data from two wards at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust during the first wave of the pandemic showed qualitatively different patterns of linkage between cases on designated COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 wards. The subsequent real-time application of our method to data from the second epidemic wave highlights its value for monitoring cases of infection in a clinical context.

SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection.

The spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is critical for virus infection through the engagement of the human ACE2 protein1 and is a major antibody target. Here we show that chronic infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to viral evolution and reduced sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies in an immunosuppressed individual treated with convalescent plasma, by generating whole-genome ultra-deep sequences for 23 time points that span 101 days and using in vitro techniques to characterize the mutations revealed by sequencing. There was little change in the overall structure of the viral population after two courses of remdesivir during the first 57 days. However, after convalescent plasma therapy, we observed large, dynamic shifts in the viral population, with the emergence of a dominant viral strain that contained a substitution (D796H) in the S2 subunit and a deletion (ΔH69/ΔV70) in the S1 N-terminal domain of the spike protein. As passively transferred serum antibodies diminished, viruses with the escape genotype were reduced in frequency, before returning during a final, unsuccessful course of convalescent plasma treatment. In vitro, the spike double mutant bearing both ΔH69/ΔV70 and D796H conferred modestly decreased sensitivity to convalescent plasma, while maintaining infectivity levels that were similar to the wild-type virus.The spike substitution mutant D796H appeared to be the main contributor to the decreased susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies, but this mutation resulted in an infectivity defect. The spike deletion mutant ΔH69/ΔV70 had a twofold higher level of infectivity than wild-type SARS-CoV-2, possibly compensating for the reduced infectivity of the D796H mutation. These data reveal strong selection on SARS-CoV-2 during convalescent plasma therapy, which is associated with the emergence of viral variants that show evidence of reduced susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies in immunosuppressed individuals.

A de novo approach to inferring within-host fitness effects during untreated HIV-1 infection.

In the absence of effective antiviral therapy, HIV-1 evolves in response to the within-host environment, of which the immune system is an important aspect. During the earliest stages of infection, this process of evolution is very rapid, driven by a small number of CTL escape mutations. As the infection progresses, immune escape variants evolve under reduced magnitudes of selection, while competition between an increasing number of polymorphic alleles (i.e., clonal interference) makes it difficult to quantify the magnitude of selection acting upon specific variant alleles. To tackle this complex problem, we developed a novel multi-locus inference method to evaluate the role of selection during the chronic stage of within-host infection. We applied this method to targeted sequence data from the p24 and gp41 regions of HIV-1 collected from 34 patients with long-term untreated HIV-1 infection. We identify a broad distribution of beneficial fitness effects during infection, with a small number of variants evolving under strong selection and very many variants evolving under weaker selection. The uniquely large number of infections analysed granted a previously unparalleled statistical power to identify loci at which selection could be inferred to act with statistical confidence. Our model makes no prior assumptions about the nature of alleles under selection, such that any synonymous or non-synonymous variant may be inferred to evolve under selection. However, the majority of variants inferred with confidence to be under selection were non-synonymous in nature, and in most cases were have previously been associated with either CTL escape in p24 or neutralising antibody escape in gp41. We also identified a putative new CTL escape site (residue 286 in gag), and a region of gp41 (including residues 644, 648, 655 in env) likely to be associated with immune escape. Sites inferred to be under selection in multiple hosts have high within-host and between-host diversity although not all sites with high between-host diversity were inferred to be under selection at the within-host level. Our identification of selection at sites associated with resistance to broadly neutralising antibodies (bNAbs) highlights the need to fully understand the role of selection in untreated individuals when designing bNAb based therapies.

Inferring Transmission Bottleneck Size from Viral Sequence Data Using a Novel Haplotype Reconstruction Method.

The transmission bottleneck is defined as the number of viral particles that transmit from one host to establish an infection in another. Genome sequence data have been used to evaluate the size of the transmission bottleneck between humans infected with the influenza virus; however, the methods used to make these estimates have some limitations. Specifically, viral allele frequencies, which form the basis of many calculations, may not fully capture a process which involves the transmission of entire viral genomes. Here, we set out a novel approach for inferring viral transmission bottlenecks; our method combines an algorithm for haplotype reconstruction with maximum likelihood methods for bottleneck inference. This approach allows for rapid calculation and performs well when applied to data from simulated transmission events; errors in the haplotype reconstruction step did not adversely affect inferences of the population bottleneck. Applied to data from a previous household transmission study of influenza A infection, we confirm the result that the majority of transmission events involve a small number of viruses, albeit with slightly looser bottlenecks being inferred, with between 1 and 13 particles transmitted in the majority of cases. While influenza A transmission involves a tight population bottleneck, the bottleneck is not so tight as to universally prevent the transmission of within-host viral diversity.IMPORTANCE Viral populations undergo a repeated cycle of within-host growth followed by transmission. Viral evolution is affected by each stage of this cycle. The number of viral particles transmitted from one host to another, known as the transmission bottleneck, is an important factor in determining how the evolutionary dynamics of the population play out, restricting the extent to which the evolved diversity of the population can be passed from one host to another. Previous study of viral sequence data has suggested that the transmission bottleneck size for influenza A transmission between human hosts is small. Reevaluating these data using a novel and improved method, we largely confirm this result, albeit that we infer a slightly higher bottleneck size in some cases, of between 1 and 13 virions. While a tight bottleneck operates in human influenza transmission, it is not extreme in nature; some diversity can be meaningfully retained between hosts.

Favipiravir and Zanamivir Cleared Infection with Influenza B in a Severely Immunocompromised Child.

A combination of favipiravir and zanamivir successfully cleared influenza B infection in a child who had undergone bone marrow transplant for X-linked severe combined immunodeficiency, with no recovery of T lymphocytes. Deep sequencing of viral samples illuminated the within-host dynamics of infection, demonstrating the effectiveness of favipiravir in this case.

Fitness Landscape of the Fission Yeast Genome.

The relationship between DNA sequence, biochemical function, and molecular evolution is relatively well-described for protein-coding regions of genomes, but far less clear in noncoding regions, particularly, in eukaryote genomes. In part, this is because we lack a complete description of the essential noncoding elements in a eukaryote genome. To contribute to this challenge, we used saturating transposon mutagenesis to interrogate the Schizosaccharomyces pombe genome. We generated 31 million transposon insertions, a theoretical coverage of 2.4 insertions per genomic site. We applied a five-state hidden Markov model (HMM) to distinguish insertion-depleted regions from insertion biases. Both raw insertion-density and HMM-defined fitness estimates showed significant quantitative relationships to gene knockout fitness, genetic diversity, divergence, and expected functional regions based on transcription and gene annotations. Through several analyses, we conclude that transposon insertions produced fitness effects in 66-90% of the genome, including substantial portions of the noncoding regions. Based on the HMM, we estimate that 10% of the insertion depleted sites in the genome showed no signal of conservation between species and were weakly transcribed, demonstrating limitations of comparative genomics and transcriptomics to detect functional units. In this species, 3'- and 5'-untranslated regions were the most prominent insertion-depleted regions that were not represented in measures of constraint from comparative genomics. We conclude that the combination of transposon mutagenesis, evolutionary, and biochemical data can provide new insights into the relationship between genome function and molecular evolution.

Mutational load causes stochastic evolutionary outcomes in acute RNA viral infection.

Mutational load is known to be of importance for the evolution of RNA viruses, the combination of a high mutation rate and large population size leading to an accumulation of deleterious mutations. However, while the effects of mutational load on global viral populations have been considered, its quantitative effects at the within-host scale of infection are less well understood. We here show that even on the rapid timescale of acute disease, mutational load has an effect on within-host viral adaptation, reducing the effective selection acting upon beneficial variants by ∼10 per cent. Furthermore, mutational load induces considerable stochasticity in the pattern of evolution, causing a more than five-fold uncertainty in the effective fitness of a transmitted beneficial variant. Our work aims to bridge the gap between classic models from population genetic theory and the biology of viral infection. In an advance on some previous models of mutational load, we replace the assumption of a constant variant fitness cost with an experimentally-derived distribution of fitness effects. Expanding previous frameworks for evolutionary simulation, we introduce the Wright-Fisher model with continuous mutation, which describes a continuum of possible modes of replication within a cell. Our results advance our understanding of adaptation in the context of strong selection and a high mutation rate. Despite viral populations having large absolute sizes, critical events in viral adaptation, including antigenic drift and the onset of drug resistance, arise through stochastic evolutionary processes.

Building a mechanistic mathematical model of hepatitis C virus entry.

The mechanism by which hepatitis C virus (HCV) gains entry into cells is a complex one, involving a broad range of host proteins. Entry is a critical phase of the viral lifecycle, and a potential target for therapeutic or vaccine-mediated intervention. However, the mechanics of HCV entry remain poorly understood. Here we describe a novel computational model of viral entry, encompassing the relationship between HCV and the key host receptors CD81 and SR-B1. We conduct experiments to thoroughly quantify the influence of an increase or decrease in receptor availability upon the extent of viral entry. We use these data to build and parameterise a mathematical model, which we then validate by further experiments. Our results are consistent with sequential HCV-receptor interactions, whereby initial interaction between the HCV E2 glycoprotein and SR-B1 facilitates the accumulation CD81 receptors, leading to viral entry. However, we also demonstrate that a small minority of viruses can achieve entry in the absence of SR-B1. Our model estimates the impact of the different obstacles that viruses must surmount to achieve entry; among virus particles attaching to the cell surface, around one third of viruses accumulate sufficient CD81 receptors, of which 4-8% then complete the subsequent steps to achieve productive infection. Furthermore, we make estimates of receptor stoichiometry; in excess of 10 receptors are likely to be required to achieve viral entry. Our model provides a tool to investigate the entry characteristics of HCV variants and outlines a framework for future quantitative studies of the multi-receptor dynamics of HCV entry.

Population genomic and evolutionary modelling analyses reveal a single major QTL for ivermectin drug resistance in the pathogenic nematode, Haemonchus contortus.

BACKGROUND: Infections with helminths cause an enormous disease burden in billions of animals and plants worldwide. Large scale use of anthelmintics has driven the evolution of resistance in a number of species that infect livestock and companion animals, and there are growing concerns regarding the reduced efficacy in some human-infective helminths. Understanding the mechanisms by which resistance evolves is the focus of increasing interest; robust genetic analysis of helminths is challenging, and although many candidate genes have been proposed, the genetic basis of resistance remains poorly resolved. RESULTS: Here, we present a genome-wide analysis of two genetic crosses between ivermectin resistant and sensitive isolates of the parasitic nematode Haemonchus contortus, an economically important gastrointestinal parasite of small ruminants and a model for anthelmintic research. Whole genome sequencing of parental populations, and key stages throughout the crosses, identified extensive genomic diversity that differentiates populations, but after backcrossing and selection, a single genomic quantitative trait locus (QTL) localised on chromosome V was revealed to be associated with ivermectin resistance. This QTL was common between the two geographically and genetically divergent resistant populations and did not include any leading candidate genes, suggestive of a previously uncharacterised mechanism and/or driver of resistance. Despite limited resolution due to low recombination in this region, population genetic analyses and novel evolutionary models supported strong selection at this QTL, driven by at least partial dominance of the resistant allele, and that large resistance-associated haplotype blocks were enriched in response to selection. CONCLUSIONS: We have described the genetic architecture and mode of ivermectin selection, revealing a major genomic locus associated with ivermectin resistance, the most conclusive evidence to date in any parasitic nematode. This study highlights a novel genome-wide approach to the analysis of a genetic cross in non-model organisms with extreme genetic diversity, and the importance of a high-quality reference genome in interpreting the signals of selection so identified.

Measurements of intrahost viral diversity require an unbiased diversity metric.

Viruses exist within hosts at large population sizes and are subject to high rates of mutation. As such, viral populations exhibit considerable sequence diversity. A variety of summary statistics have been developed which describe, in a single number, the extent of diversity in a viral population; such measurements allow the diversities of different populations to be compared, and the effect of evolutionary forces on a population to be assessed. Here we highlight statistical artefacts underlying some common measures of sequence diversity, whereby variation in the depth of genome sequencing may substantially affect the extent of diversity measured in a viral population, making comparisons of population diversity invalid. Specifically, naive estimation of sequence entropy provides a systematically biased metric, a lower read depth being expected to produce a lower estimate of diversity. The number of polymorphic loci per kilobase of genome is more unpredictably affected by read depth, giving potentially flawed results at lower sequencing depths. We show that the nucleotide diversity statistic π provides an unbiased estimate of diversity in the sense that the expected value of the statistic is equal to the correct value of the property being measured. Our results are of importance for studies interpreting genome sequence data; we describe how diversity may be assessed in viral populations in a fair and unbiased manner.

A novel framework for inferring parameters of transmission from viral sequence data.

Transmission between hosts is a critical part of the viral lifecycle. Recent studies of viral transmission have used genome sequence data to evaluate the number of particles transmitted between hosts, and the role of selection as it operates during the transmission process. However, the interpretation of sequence data describing transmission events is a challenging task. We here present a novel and comprehensive framework for using short-read sequence data to understand viral transmission events, designed for influenza virus, but adaptable to other viral species. Our approach solves multiple shortcomings of previous methods for this purpose; for example, we consider transmission as an event involving whole viruses, rather than sets of independent alleles. We demonstrate how selection during transmission and noisy sequence data may each affect naive inferences of the population bottleneck, accounting for these in our framework so as to achieve a correct inference. We identify circumstances in which selection for increased viral transmission may or may not be identified from data. Applying our method to experimental data in which transmission occurs in the presence of strong selection, we show that our framework grants a more quantitative insight into transmission events than previous approaches, inferring the bottleneck in a manner that accounts for selection, both for within-host virulence, and for inherent viral transmissibility. Our work provides new opportunities for studying transmission processes in influenza, and by extension, in other infectious diseases.

Single-cell RNA-seq reveals hidden transcriptional variation in malaria parasites.

Single-cell RNA-sequencing is revolutionising our understanding of seemingly homogeneous cell populations but has not yet been widely applied to single-celled organisms. Transcriptional variation in unicellular malaria parasites from the Plasmodium genus is associated with critical phenotypes including red blood cell invasion and immune evasion, yet transcriptional variation at an individual parasite level has not been examined in depth. Here, we describe the adaptation of a single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) protocol to deconvolute transcriptional variation for more than 500 individual parasites of both rodent and human malaria comprising asexual and sexual life-cycle stages. We uncover previously hidden discrete transcriptional signatures during the pathogenic part of the life cycle, suggesting that expression over development is not as continuous as commonly thought. In transmission stages, we find novel, sex-specific roles for differential expression of contingency gene families that are usually associated with immune evasion and pathogenesis.