Frailty according to the 2019 HFA-ESC definition in patients at risk for advanced heart failure: Insights from the HELP-HF registry.

AIMS: Frailty is highly prevalent in patients with heart failure (HF), but a concordant definition of this condition is lacking. The Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology (HFA-ESC) proposed in 2019 a new multi-domain definition of frailty, but it has never been validated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients from the HELP-HF registry were stratified according to the number of HFA-ESC frailty domains fulfilled and to the cumulative deficits frailty index (FI) quintiles. Prevalence of frailty and of each domain was reported, as well as the rate of the composite of all-cause death and HF hospitalization, its single components, and cardiovascular death in each group and quintile. Among 854 included patients, 37 (4.3%), 206 (24.1%), 365 (42.8%), 217 (25.4%), and 29 (3.4%) patients fulfilled zero, one, two, three, or four domains, respectively, while 179 patients had a FI < 0.21 and were considered not frail. The 1-year risk of adverse events increased proportionally to the number of domains fulfilled (for each criterion increase, all-cause death or HF hospitalization: hazard ratio [HR] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-1.62; all-cause death: HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.46-2.02, HF hospitalizations: subHR 1.21, 95% CI 1.04-1.31; cardiovascular death: HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.45-2.15). Consistent results were found stratifying the cohort for FI quintiles. The FI as a continuous variable demonstrated higher discriminative ability than the number of domains fulfilled (area under the curve = 0.68 vs. 0.64, p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Frailty in patients at risk for advanced HF, assessed via a multi-domain approach and the FI, is highly prevalent and identifies those at increased risk of adverse events. The FI was found to be slightly more effective in identifying patients at increased risk of mortality.

Functional Mitral Regurgitation and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: Clinical Implications and Management.

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is highly prevalent and associated with worse cardiovascular outcomes. The pathophysiology of HFpEF mostly relies on the development of elevated left ventricle filling pressure, diastolic dysfunction, and atrial dilatation and impairment. This dynamic process may eventually lead to the development of functional mitral regurgitation (MR), characterized by mitral annular dilatation and consequent leaflet remodeling, in the context of preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. These observations highlight the possible common pathophysiology of MR and HFpEF. However, less is known about the prevalence and the clinical value of MR in the context of HFpEF. This review aims to provide an overview of the association and interplay between functional MR and HFpEF, discuss the underlying mechanisms that are common to these diseases, and summarize potential targeted pharmacological treatments.

Ion channel dysfunction and fibrosis in atrial fibrillation: Two sides of the same coin.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common heart rhythm disorder that is associated with an increased risk of stroke and heart failure (HF). Initially, an association between AF and ion channel dysfunction was identified, classifying the pathology as a predominantly electrical disease. More recently it has been recognized that fibrosis and structural atrial remodeling play a driving role in the development of this arrhythmia also in these cases. PURPOSE: Understanding the role of fibrosis in genetic determined AF could be important to better comprise the pathophysiology of this arrhythmia and to refine its management also in nongenetic forms. In this review we analyze genetic and epigenetic mechanisms responsible for AF and their link with atrial fibrosis, then we will consider analogies with the pathophysiological mechanism in nongenetic AF, and discuss consequent therapeutic options.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients with tricuspid regurgitation and advanced heart failure.

AIMS: To evaluate the role of tricuspid regurgitation in advanced heart failure. METHODS: The multicenter observational HELP-HF registry enrolled consecutive patients with heart failure and at least one 'I NEED HELP' criterion evaluated at four Italian centers between January 2020 and November 2021. Patients with no data on tricuspid regurgitation and/or receiving tricuspid valve intervention during follow-up were excluded. The population was stratified by no/mild tricuspid regurgitation vs. moderate tricuspid regurgitation vs. severe tricuspid regurgitation. Variables independently associated with tricuspid regurgitation, as well as the association between tricuspid regurgitation and clinical outcomes were investigated. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among the 1085 patients included in this study, 508 (46.8%) had no/mild tricuspid regurgitation, 373 (34.4%) had moderate tricuspid regurgitation and 204 (18.8%) had severe tricuspid regurgitation. History of atrial fibrillation, any prior valve surgery, high dose of furosemide, preserved left ventricular ejection fraction, moderate/severe mitral regurgitation and pulmonary hypertension were found to be independently associated with an increased likelihood of severe tricuspid regurgitation. Estimated rates of 1-year all-cause death were of 21.4, 24.5 and 37.1% in no/mild tricuspid regurgitation, moderate tricuspid regurgitation and severe tricuspid regurgitation, respectively (log-rank P  < 0.001). As compared with nonsevere tricuspid regurgitation, severe tricuspid regurgitation was independently associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.88, P  = 0.042), whereas moderate tricuspid regurgitation did not. CONCLUSION: In a contemporary, real-world cohort of patients with advanced heart failure, several clinical and echocardiographic characteristics are associated with an increased likelihood of severe tricuspid regurgitation. Patients with severe tricuspid regurgitation have an increased risk of mortality.

Role of ejection fraction in patients at risk for advanced heart failure: insights from the HELP-HF registry.

AIMS: Patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF), mildly reduced EF (HFmrEF), and preserved EF (HFpEF) may all progress to advanced HF, but the impact of EF in the advanced setting is not well established. Our aim was to assess the prognostic impact of EF in patients with at least one 'I NEED HELP' marker for advanced HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with HF and at least one high-risk 'I NEED HELP' criterion from four centres were included in this analysis. Outcomes were assessed in patients with HFrEF (EF ≤ 40%), HFmrEF (EF 41-49%), and HFpEF (EF ≥ 50%) and with EF analysed as a continuous variable. The prognostic impact of medical therapy for HF in patients with EF < 50% and EF > 50% was also evaluated. All-cause death was the primary endpoint, and cardiovascular death was a secondary endpoint. Among 1149 patients enrolled [mean age 75.1 ± 11.5 years, 67.3% males, 67.6% hospitalized, median follow-up 260 days (inter-quartile range 105-390 days)], HFrEF, HFmrEF, and HFpEF were observed in 699 (60.8%), 122 (10.6%), and 328 (28.6%) patients, and 1 year mortality was 28.3%, 26.2%, and 20.1, respectively (log-rank P = 0.036). As compared with HFrEF patients, HFpEF patients had a lower risk of all-cause death [adjusted hazard ratio (HRadj ) 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48-0.94, P = 0.022], whereas no difference was noted for HFmrEF patients. After multivariable adjustment, a lower risk of all-cause death (HRadj for 5% increase 0.94, 95% CI 0.89-0.99, P = 0.017) and cardiovascular death (HRadj for 5% increase 0.94, 95% CI 0.88-1.00, P = 0.049) was observed at higher EF values. Beta-blockers and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors or sacubitril/valsartan were associated with lower mortality in both EF < 50% and EF ≥ 50% groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with HF and at least one 'I NEED HELP' marker for advanced HF, left ventricular EF is still of prognostic value.

Guideline-directed medical therapy in severe heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: An analysis from the HELP-HF registry.

AIM: Persistent symptoms despite guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) and poor tolerance of GDMT are hallmarks of patients with advanced heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, real-world data on GDMT use, dose, and prognostic implications are lacking. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 699 consecutive patients with HFrEF and at least one 'I NEED HELP' marker for advanced HF enrolled in a multicentre registry. Beta-blockers (BB) were administered to 574 (82%) patients, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers or angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ACEi/ARB/ARNI) were administered to 381 (55%) patients and 416 (60%) received mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA). Overall, ≥50% of target doses were reached in 41%, 22%, and 56% of the patients on BB, ACEi/ARB/ARNI and MRA, respectively. Hypotension, bradycardia, kidney dysfunction and hyperkalaemia were the main causes of underprescription and/or underdosing, but up to a half of the patients did not receive target doses for unknown causes (51%, 41%, and 55% for BB, ACEi/ARB/ARNI and MRA, respectively). The proportions of patients receiving BB and ACEi/ARB/ARNI were lower among those fulfilling the 2018 HFA-ESC criteria for advanced HF. Treatment with BB and ACEi/ARB/ARNI were associated with a lower risk of death or HF hospitalizations (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48-0.84, and HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.95, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In a large, real-world, contemporary cohort of patients with severe HFrEF, with at least one marker for advanced HF, prescription and uptitration of GDMT remained limited. A significant proportion of patients were undertreated due to unknown reasons suggesting a potential role of clinical inertia either by the prescribing healthcare professional or by the patient. Treatment with BB and ACEi/ARB/ARNI was associated with lower mortality/morbidity.

Right ventricle assessment before tricuspid valve interventions.

In the latest ESC/EACTS Guidelines for the Management of Valvular Heart Disease, right ventricular dilatation and dysfunction, severe pulmonary hypertension and tricuspid annulus dilatation were reported to be the most important parameters to consider in patient selection for tricuspid valve interventions. Indeed, comprehensive right ventricular assessment is crucial in patients with severe tricuspid regurgitation who may benefit from transcatheter or surgical procedures. However, the only guideline parameter considered for intervention has been tricuspid annular dilatation in the presence of at least mild to moderate tricuspid regurgitation, with no other right ventricular markers used in the decision-making process for invasive treatment. Notably, challenges in the assessment of right ventricular function may limit establishing thresholds for defining right ventricular dysfunction. The aim of this review is to summarize current evidence on the prognostic significance of right ventricular function in patients with tricuspid regurgitation undergoing percutaneous or surgical interventions.

Clinical and prognostic implications of heart failure hospitalization in patients with advanced heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization is associated with poor outcomes in patients with heart failure, but its prognostic role in advanced heart failure is still unsettled. We evaluated the prognostic role of heart failure hospitalization in patients with advanced heart failure. METHODS: The multicenter HELP-HF registry enrolled consecutive patients with heart failure and at least one high-risk 'I NEED HELP' marker. Characteristics and outcomes were compared between patients who were hospitalized for decompensated heart failure (inpatients) or not (outpatients) at the time of enrolment. The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause mortality or first heart failure hospitalization. RESULTS: Among the 1149 patients included [mean age 75.1 ±â€Š11.5 years, 67.3% men, median left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 35% (IQR 25-50%)], 777 (67.6%) were inpatients at the time of enrolment. As compared with outpatients, inpatients had lower LVEF, higher natriuretic peptides and a worse clinical profile. The 1-year rate of the primary endpoint was 50.9% in inpatients versus 36.8% in outpatients [crude hazard ratio 1.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.39-2.07, P < 0.001]. At multivariable analysis, inpatient status was independently associated with a higher risk of the primary endpoint (adjusted hazard ratio 1.54, 95% CI 1.23-1.93, P < 0.001). Among inpatients, the independent predictors of the primary endpoint were older age, lower SBP, heart failure association criteria for advanced heart failure and glomerular filtration rate 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 or less. CONCLUSION: Hospitalization for heart failure in patients with at least one high-risk 'I NEED HELP' marker is associated with an extremely poor prognosis supporting the need for specific interventions, such as mechanical circulatory support or heart transplantation.

Detailed Assessment of the "I Need Help" Criteria in Patients With Heart Failure: Insights From the HELP-HF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The "I Need Help" markers have been proposed to identify patients with advanced heart failure (HF). We evaluated the prognostic impact of these markers on clinical outcomes in a real-world, contemporary, multicenter HF population. METHODS: We included consecutive patients with HF and at least 1 high-risk "I Need Help" marker from 4 centers. The impact of the cumulative number of "I Need Help" criteria and that of each individual "I Need Help" criterion was evaluated. The primary end point was the composite of all-cause mortality or first HF hospitalization. RESULTS: Among 1149 patients enrolled, the majority had 2 (30.9%) or 3 (22.6%) "I Need Help" criteria. A higher cumulative number of "I Need Help" criteria was independently associated with a higher risk of the primary end point (adjusted hazard ratio for each criterion increase, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.11-1.27]; P<0.001), and patients with >5 criteria had the worst prognosis. Need of inotropes, persistently high New York Heart Association classes III and IV or natriuretic peptides, end-organ dysfunction, >1 HF hospitalization in the last year, persisting fluid overload or escalating diuretics, and low blood pressure were the individual criteria independently associated with a higher risk of the primary end point. CONCLUSIONS: In our HF population, a higher number of "I Need Help" criteria was associated with a worse prognosis. The individual criteria with an independent impact on mortality or HF hospitalization were need of inotropes, New York Heart Association class or natriuretic peptides, end-organ dysfunction, multiple HF hospitalizations, persisting edema or escalating diuretics, and low blood pressure.

Ischemic Etiology in Advanced Heart Failure: Insight from the HELP-HF Registry.

In patients with advanced heart failure (HF), defined according to the presence of at least one I-NEED-HELP criterium, the updated 2018 Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology (HFA-ESC) criteria for advanced HF identify a subgroup of patients with HF with worse prognosis, but whether ischemic etiology has a relevant prognostic impact in this very high-risk cohort is unknown. Patients from the HELP-HF registry were stratified according to ischemic etiology and presence of advanced HF based on 2018 HFA-ESC criteria. The primary end point was a composite of all-cause death and HF hospitalization at 1 year. Secondary end points were all-cause death, HF hospitalization, and cardiovascular death at 1 year. Ischemic etiology was a leading cause of HF, in both patients with advanced and nonadvanced HF (46.1% and 42.4%, respectively, p = 0.337). The risk of the primary end point (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.58) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.76) was increased in ischemic as compared with nonischemic patients. The risk of the primary end point was consistently higher in ischemic patients in both patients with advanced and nonadvanced HF (advanced HF, HR 1.50 95% CI 1.04 to 2.16; nonadvanced HF, HR 1.25 95% CI 1.01 to 1.56, pinteraction = 0.333), driven by an increased risk of mortality, mainly because of cardiovascular causes. In conclusion, ischemic etiology is the most common cause of HF in patients with at least one I-NEED-HELP marker and with or without advanced HF as defined by the 2018 HFA-ESC definition. In both patients with advanced and not-advanced HF, ischemic etiology carried an increased risk of worse prognosis.

Prognostic role of tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion/pulmonary artery systolic pressure ratio in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: The role of TAPSE/PASP, a measurement of right ventricular to pulmonary artery coupling, in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF) is poorly described. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prognostic impact of TAPSE/PASP in AHF. METHODS: This retrospective single-center study included patients hospitalized for AHF between January 2004 and May 2017. TAPSE/PASP was evaluated as a continuous variable and as tertiles according to its value on admission. The main outcome was the composite of 1-year all-cause death or heart failure hospitalization. RESULTS: A total of 340 patients were included [mean age 68.8 ±â€Š11.8 years; 76.2% men, mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 30.4 ±â€Š13.3%]. Patients with lower TAPSE/PASP had more comorbidities and a more advanced clinical profile, and received higher doses of intravenous furosemide in the first 24 h. There was a significant, linear, inverse relationship between TAPSE/PASP values and the incidence of the main outcome (P = 0.003). In two multivariable analyses including clinical (model 1), biochemical and imaging parameters (model 2) TAPSE/PASP ratio was independently associated with the primary end point [model 1: hazard ratio 0.813, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.708-0.932, P = 0.003; model 2: hazard ratio 0.879, 95% CI 0.775-0.996, P = 0.043]. Patients with TAPSE/PASP greater than 0.47 mm/mmHg had a significantly lower risk of the primary end point (model 1: hazard ratio 0.473, 95% CI 0.277-0.808, P = 0.006; model 2: hazard ratio 0.582, 95% CI 0.355-0.955, P = 0.032; both compared with TAPSE/PASP <0.34 mm/mmHg). Similar findings were observed for 1-year all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: TAPSE/PASP on admission demonstrated a prognostic value among patients with AHF.

Telemedicine for the treatment of heart failure: new opportunities after COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the epidemiology of heart failure significantly changed with reduced access to health system resources and a worsening of patients' outcome. Understanding the causes of these phenomena could be important to refine the management of heart failure during and after the pandemic. Telemedicine was associated with an improvement in heart failure outcomes in several studies; therefore, it may help in refining the out-of-hospital care of heart failure. In this review, the authors describe the changes in heart failure epidemiology during the COVID-19 pandemic; analyse available evidence on use and benefit of telemedicine during the pandemic and prepandemic periods; and discuss approaches to optimize the home-based or outpatient heart failure management in the future, beyond the pandemic.

Right ventricular to pulmonary artery coupling and outcome in patients with cardiac amyloidosis.

AIMS: To investigate the prognostic value of the right ventricle-to-pulmonary artery (RV-PA) coupling in patients with either transthyretin (ATTR) or immunoglobulin light-chain (AL) cardiac amyloidosis (CA). METHODS AND RESULTS: Overall, 283 patients with CA from 3 Italian high-volume centres were included (median age 76 years; 63% males; 53% with ATTR-CA, 47% with AL-CA). The RV-PA coupling was evaluated by using the tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion/pulmonary artery systolic pressure (TAPSE/PASP) ratio. The median value of TAPSE/PASP was 0.45 (0.33-0.63) mm/mmHg. Patients with a TAPSE/PASP ratio <0.45 were older, had lower systolic blood pressure, more severe symptoms, higher cardiac troponin and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels, greater left ventricular (LV) thickness, and worse LV systolic and diastolic function. A TAPSE/PASP ratio <0.45 was independently associated with a higher risk of all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR) 1.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-2.96; P = 0.001] and all-cause death (HR 2.18, 95% CI 1.31-3.62; P = 0.003). The TAPSE/PASP ratio reclassified the risk of both endpoints [net reclassification index 0.46 (95% CI 0.18-0.74) P = 0.001 and 0.49 (0.22-0.77) P < 0.001, respectively], while TAPSE or PASP alone did not (all P > 0.05). The prognostic impact of the TAPSE/PASP ratio was significant both in AL-CA patients (HR for the composite endpoint 2.47, 95% CI 1.58-3.85; P < 0.001) and in ATTR-CA (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.11-2.95; P = 0.017). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the optimal cut-off for predicting prognosis was 0.47 mm/mmHg. CONCLUSION: In patients with CA, RV-PA coupling predicted the risk of mortality or HF hospitalization. The TAPSE/PASP ratio was more effective than TAPSE or PASP in predicting prognosis.

Prognostic value of right ventricular longitudinal strain in patients with secondary mitral regurgitation undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge mitral valve repair.

AIMS: To evaluate the prognostic impact of pre-procedural right ventricular longitudinal strain (RVLS) in patients with secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR) undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER) in comparison with conventional echocardiographic parameters of RV function. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a retrospective study including 142 patients with SMR undergoing TEER at two Italian centres. At 1-year follow-up 45 patients reached the composite endpoint of all-cause death or heart failure hospitalization. The best cut-off value of RV free-wall longitudinal strain (RVFWLS) to predict outcome was -18% [sensitivity 72%, specificity of 71%, area under curve (AUC) 0.78, P < 0.001], whereas the best cut-off value of RV global longitudinal strain (RVGLS) was -15% (sensitivity 56%, specificity 76%, AUC 0.69, P < 0.001). Prognostic performance was suboptimal for tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, Doppler tissue imaging-derived tricuspid lateral annular systolic velocity and fractional area change (FAC). Cumulative survival free from events was lower in patients with RVFWLS ≥ -18% vs. RVFWLS < -18% (44.0% vs. 85.4%; < 0.001) as well as in patients with RVGLS ≥ -15% vs. RVGLS < -15% (54.9% vs. 81.7%; P < 0.001). At multivariable analysis FAC, RVGLS and RVFWLS were independent predictors of events. The identified cut-off of RVFWLS and RVGLS both resulted independently associated with outcomes. CONCLUSION: RVLS is a useful and reliable tool to identify patients with SMR undergoing TEER at high risk of mortality and HF hospitalization, on top of other clinical and echocardiographic parameters, with RVFWLS offering the best prognostic performance.

Changes in Right Ventricular-to-Pulmonary Artery Coupling After Transcatheter Edge-to-Edge Repair in Secondary Mitral Regurgitation.

BACKGROUND: Preprocedural right ventricular-to-pulmonary artery (RV-PA) coupling is a major predictor of outcome in patients with secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR) undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge mitral valve repair (M-TEER). However, clinical significance of changes in RV-PA coupling after M-TEER is unknown. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in RV-PA coupling after M-TEER, their prognostic value, and predictors of improvement. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study, including patients undergoing successful M-TEER (residual mitral regurgitation ≤2+ at discharge) for SMR at 13 European centers and with complete echocardiographic data at baseline and short-term follow-up (30-180 days). RV-PA coupling was assessed with the use of echocardiography as the ratio of tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion to pulmonary artery systolic pressure (TAPSE/PASP). All-cause death was assessed at the longest available follow-up starting from the time of the echocardiographic reassessment. RESULTS: Among 501 patients included, 331 (66%) improved their TAPSE/PASP after M-TEER (responders) at short-term follow-up (median: 89 days; IQR: 43-159 days), whereas 170 (34%) did not (nonresponders). Lack of previous cardiac surgery, low postprocedural mitral mean gradient, low baseline TAPSE, high baseline PASP, and baseline tricuspid regurgitation were independently associated with TAPSE/PASP improvement after M-TEER. Compared with nonresponders, responders had lower New York Heart Association functional class and less heart failure hospitalizations at short-term follow-up. Improvement in TAPSE/PASP was independently associated with reduced risk of mortality at long-term follow-up (584 days; IQR: 191-1,243 days) (HR: 0.65 [95% CI: 0.42-0.92]; P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with SMR, improvement in TAPSE/PASP after successful M-TEER is predicted by baseline clinical and echocardiographic variables and postprocedural mitral gradient, and is associated with a better outcome.

Cardiac biomarkers and mortality in COVID-19 infection: A review.

Lots of meta-analysis emphasize that a great number of hospitalized patients with moderate and severe forms of COVID-19 developed acute myocardial damage, defined as an increase of cardiac biomarkers, such N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), creatine kinase-myocardial band (CK-MB) and of all type of troponins. The highest mortality rate is related with progressively increasing biomarkers levels and with a history of cardiovascular disease. In fact, the biomarkers dosage should be considered as a prognostic marker in all patients with COVID-19 disease at admission, during hospitalization and in the case of clinical deterioration. The purpose of this review is to evaluate cardiovascular prognostic factors in COVID-19 disease throughout the analysis of cardiac biomarkers to early identify the most serious patients and to optimize their outcomes.

Machine learning for prediction of in-hospital mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 patients: results from an Italian multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Several risk factors have been identified to predict worse outcomes in patients affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Machine learning algorithms represent a novel approach to identifying a prediction model with a good discriminatory capacity to be easily used in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to obtain a risk score for in-hospital mortality in patients with coronavirus disease infection (COVID-19) based on a limited number of features collected at hospital admission. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied an Italian cohort of consecutive adult Caucasian patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who were hospitalized in 13 cardiology units during Spring 2020. The Lasso procedure was used to select the most relevant covariates. The dataset was randomly divided into a training set containing 80% of the data, used for estimating the model, and a test set with the remaining 20%. A Random Forest modeled in-hospital mortality with the selected set of covariates: its accuracy was measured by means of the ROC curve, obtaining AUC, sensitivity, specificity and related 95% confidence interval (CI). This model was then compared with the one obtained by the Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) and with logistic regression. Finally, to understand if each model has the same performance in the training and test set, the two AUCs were compared using the DeLong's test. Among 701 patients enrolled (mean age 67.2 ±â€Š13.2 years, 69.5% male individuals), 165 (23.5%) died during a median hospitalization of 15 (IQR, 9-24) days. Variables selected by the Lasso procedure were: age, oxygen saturation, PaO2/FiO2, creatinine clearance and elevated troponin. Compared with those who survived, deceased patients were older, had a lower blood oxygenation, lower creatinine clearance levels and higher prevalence of elevated troponin (all P < 0.001). The best performance out of the samples was provided by Random Forest with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.68-0.88) and a sensitivity of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.58-1.00). Moreover, Random Forest was the unique model that provided similar performance in sample and out of sample (DeLong test P = 0.78). CONCLUSION: In a large COVID-19 population, we showed that a customizable machine learning-based score derived from clinical variables is feasible and effective for the prediction of in-hospital mortality.

Prognostic impact of the updated 2018 HFA-ESC definition of advanced heart failure: results from the HELP-HF registry.

AIMS: The Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology (HFA-ESC) proposed a definition of advanced heart failure (HF) that has not been validated, yet. We assessed its prognostic impact in a consecutive series of patients with high-risk HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: The HELP-HF registry enrolled consecutive patients with HF and at least one high-risk 'I NEED HELP' marker, evaluated at four Italian centres between 1st January 2020 and 30th November 2021. Patients meeting the HFA-ESC advanced HF definition were compared to patients not meeting this definition. The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause mortality or first HF hospitalization. Out of 4753 patients with HF screened, 1149 (24.3%) patients with at least one high-risk 'I NEED HELP' marker were included (mean age 75.1 ± 11.5 years, 67.3% male, median left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 35% [interquartile range 25%-50%]). Among them, 193 (16.8%) patients met the HFA-ESC advanced HF definition. As compared to others, these patients were younger, had lower LVEF, higher natriuretic peptides and a worse clinical profile. The 1-year rate of the primary endpoint was 69.3% in patients with advanced HF according to the HFA-ESC definition versus 41.8% in the others (hazard ratio [HR] 2.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.82-2.74, p < 0.001). The prognostic impact of the HFA-ESC advanced HF definition was confirmed after multivariable adjustment for relevant covariates (adjusted HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.57-2.50, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The HFA-ESC advanced HF definition had a strong prognostic impact in a contemporary, real-world, multicentre high-risk cohort of patients with HF.

Prognostic significance of serum potassium in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure.

AIM: We investigated the prognostic significance of serum potassium abnormalities at discharge in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In a retrospective analysis, we included 926 patients hospitalized for AHF, stratified by serum potassium levels at discharge as hypokalaemia (<3.5 mEq/L), normokalaemia (3.5-5.0 mEq/L), and hyperkalaemia (>5.0 mEq/L). The primary endpoint was all-cause death at 1 year since hospital discharge. At discharge, 40 patients had hypokalaemia (4.3%), 840 normokalaemia (90.7%), and 46 hyperkalaemia (5.0%). Patients with hyperkalaemia at discharge were more frequently men, had more signs of congestion, and lower LVEF while patients with hypokalaemia were more likely to be women with HFpEF. Treatment with ACEi/ARBs and MRAs ≥50% of target dose at discharge was similar across groups. One year all-cause death occurred in 10% of the patients with hypokalaemia, 13.9% of those with normokalaemia, and 30.4% of those with hyperkalaemia (P = 0.006). After adjustment for covariates, including renal function, background treatment, and baseline potassium level, hyperkalaemia resulted an independent predictor of the primary endpoint (HR 1.96, 95% IC [1.01-3.82]; P = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, the presence of hyperkalaemia at discharge is an independent predictor of 1 year all-cause death.