Multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and prevalence estimates and projections, Australia, 1982-2043: a statistical modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates during 1982-2018, and to estimate its incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 2019-2043. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based statistical modelling study; analysis of and projections based on Australian Institute of Health and Welfare multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and survival data. SETTING: Australia, 1982-2018 (historical data) and projections to 2043. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates, 1982-2018, determined by joinpoint regression analysis (age-standardised to 2021 Australian population); projection of rates to 2043 based on age-period-cohort models; estimated 5- and 30-year prevalence of multiple myeloma (modified counting method). RESULTS: The incidence of multiple myeloma increased during 1982-2018 (eg, annual percentage change [APC], 2006-2018, 1.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-2.2%), but the mortality rate declined during 1990-2018 (APC, -0.4%; 95% CI, -0.5% to -0.2%). The age-standardised incidence rate was projected to increase by 14.9% during 2018-2043, from 8.7 in 2018 to 10.0 (95% CI, 9.4-10.7) new cases per 100 000 population in 2043; the mortality rate was projected to decline by 27.5%, from 4.0 to 2.9 (95% CI, 2.6-3.3) deaths per 100 000 population. The annual number of people newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma was estimated to increase by 89.2%, from 2120 in 2018 to 4012 in 2043; the number of deaths from multiple myeloma was projected to increase by 31.7%, from 979 to 1289. The number of people living with multiple myeloma up to 30 years after initial diagnosis was projected to increase by 163%, from 10 288 in 2018 to 27 093 in 2043, including 13 019 people (48.1%) diagnosed during the preceding five years. CONCLUSION: Although the decline in the mortality rate was projected to continue, the projected increases in the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma in Australia over the next 25 years indicate that investment in prevention and early detection research, and planning for prolonged treatment and care, are needed.

Economic evaluation: immunoglobulin vs prophylactic antibiotics in hypogammaglobulinemia and hematological malignancies.

ABSTRACT: Patients with hematological malignancies are at high risk of developing hypogammaglobulinemia (HGG) and infections. Immunoglobulin (Ig) is one recommended option to prevent these infections, but it is expensive, and its cost-effectiveness compared with other prevention strategies remains unknown. We conducted a trial-based economic evaluation from the Australian health care system perspective to estimate the 12-month cost-effectiveness of prophylactic Ig vs prophylactic antibiotics in 63 adults with HGG and hematological malignancies participating in the RATIONAL feasibility trial. Two analyses were conducted: (1) cost-utility analysis to assess the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained; and (2) cost-effectiveness analysis to assess the incremental cost per serious infection prevented (grade ≥3) and per any infection (any grade) prevented. Over 12 months, the total cost per patient was significantly higher in the Ig group than in the antibiotic group (mean difference, AU$29 140; P < .001). Most patients received IVIg, which was the main cost driver; only 2 patients in the intervention arm received subcutaneous Ig. There were nonsignificant differences in health outcomes. Results showed Ig was more costly than antibiotics and associated with fewer QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of Ig vs antibiotics was AU$111 262 per serious infection prevented, but Ig was more costly and associated with more infections when all infections were included. On average and for this patient population, Ig prophylaxis may not be cost-effective compared with prophylactic antibiotics. Further research is needed to confirm these findings in a larger population and considering longer-term outcomes. The trial was registered at the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry as #ACTRN12616001723471.