Mutual information maximization for amortized likelihood inference from sampled trajectories: MINIMALIST.

Simulation-based inference enables learning the parameters of a model even when its likelihood cannot be computed in practice. One class of methods uses data simulated with different parameters to infer models of the likelihood-to-evidence ratio, or equivalently the posterior function. Here we frame the inference task as an estimation of an energy function parametrized with an artificial neural network. We present an intuitive approach, named MINIMALIST, in which the optimal model of the likelihood-to-evidence ratio is found by maximizing the likelihood of simulated data. Within this framework, the connection between the task of simulation-based inference and mutual information maximization is clear, and we show how several known methods of posterior estimation relate to alternative lower bounds to mutual information. These distinct objective functions aim at the same optimal energy form and therefore can be directly benchmarked. We compare their accuracy in the inference of model parameters, focusing on four dynamical systems that encompass common challenges in time series analysis: dynamics driven by multiplicative noise, nonlinear interactions, chaotic behavior, and high-dimensional parameter space.

Dynamics of B cell repertoires and emergence of cross-reactive responses in patients with different severities of COVID-19.

Individuals with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show varying severity of the disease, ranging from asymptomatic to requiring intensive care. Although monoclonal antibodies specific to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been identified, we still lack an understanding of the overall landscape of B cell receptor (BCR) repertoires in individuals with COVID-19. We use high-throughput sequencing of bulk and plasma B cells collected at multiple time points during infection to characterize signatures of the B cell response to SARS-CoV-2 in 19 individuals. Using principled statistical approaches, we associate differential features of BCRs with different disease severity. We identify 38 significantly expanded clonal lineages shared among individuals as candidates for responses specific to SARS-CoV-2. Using single-cell sequencing, we verify the reactivity of BCRs shared among individuals to SARS-CoV-2 epitopes. Moreover, we identify the natural emergence of a BCR with cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 in some individuals. Our results provide insights important for development of rational therapies and vaccines against COVID-19.

Deep generative selection models of T and B cell receptor repertoires with soNNia.

Subclasses of lymphocytes carry different functional roles to work together and produce an immune response and lasting immunity. Additionally to these functional roles, T and B cell lymphocytes rely on the diversity of their receptor chains to recognize different pathogens. The lymphocyte subclasses emerge from common ancestors generated with the same diversity of receptors during selection processes. Here, we leverage biophysical models of receptor generation with machine learning models of selection to identify specific sequence features characteristic of functional lymphocyte repertoires and subrepertoires. Specifically, using only repertoire-level sequence information, we classify CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, find correlations between receptor chains arising during selection, and identify T cell subsets that are targets of pathogenic epitopes. We also show examples of when simple linear classifiers do as well as more complex machine learning methods.

Dynamics of B-cell repertoires and emergence of cross-reactive responses in COVID-19 patients with different disease severity.

COVID-19 patients show varying severity of the disease ranging from asymptomatic to requiring intensive care. Although a number of SARS-CoV-2 specific monoclonal antibodies have been identified, we still lack an understanding of the overall landscape of B-cell receptor (BCR) repertoires in COVID-19 patients. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing of bulk and plasma B-cells collected over multiple time points during infection to characterize signatures of B-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 in 19 patients. Using principled statistical approaches, we determined differential features of BCRs associated with different disease severity. We identified 38 significantly expanded clonal lineages shared among patients as candidates for specific responses to SARS-CoV-2. Using single-cell sequencing, we verified reactivity of BCRs shared among individuals to SARS-CoV-2 epitopes. Moreover, we identified natural emergence of a BCR with cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 in a number of patients. Our results provide important insights for development of rational therapies and vaccines against COVID-19.

Dynamics of B-cell repertoires and emergence of cross-reactive responses in COVID-19 patients with different disease severity.

COVID-19 patients show varying severity of the disease ranging from asymptomatic to requiring intensive care. Although a number of SARS-CoV-2 specific monoclonal antibodies have been identified, we still lack an understanding of the overall landscape of B-cell receptor (BCR) repertoires in COVID-19 patients. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing of bulk and plasma B-cells collected over multiple time points during infection to characterize signatures of B-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 in 19 patients. Using principled statistical approaches, we determined differential features of BCRs associated with different disease severity. We identified 38 significantly expanded clonal lineages shared among patients as candidates for specific responses to SARS-CoV-2. Using single-cell sequencing, we verified reactivity of BCRs shared among individuals to SARS-CoV-2 epitopes. Moreover, we identified natural emergence of a BCR with cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 in a number of patients. Our results provide important insights for development of rational therapies and vaccines against COVID-19.

Population variability in the generation and selection of T-cell repertoires.

The diversity of T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoires is achieved by a combination of two intrinsically stochastic steps: random receptor generation by VDJ recombination, and selection based on the recognition of random self-peptides presented on the major histocompatibility complex. These processes lead to a large receptor variability within and between individuals. However, the characterization of the variability is hampered by the limited size of the sampled repertoires. We introduce a new software tool SONIA to facilitate inference of individual-specific computational models for the generation and selection of the TCR beta chain (TRB) from sequenced repertoires of 651 individuals, separating and quantifying the variability of the two processes of generation and selection in the population. We find not only that most of the variability is driven by the VDJ generation process, but there is a large degree of consistency between individuals with the inter-individual variance of repertoires being about ∼2% of the intra-individual variance. Known viral-specific TCRs follow the same generation and selection statistics as all TCRs.

SOS: online probability estimation and generation of T-and B-cell receptors.

SUMMARY: Recent advances in modelling VDJ recombination and subsequent selection of T- and B-cell receptors provide useful tools to analyse and compare immune repertoires across time, individuals and tissues. A suite of tools-IGoR, OLGA and SONIA-have been publicly released to the community that allow for the inference of generative and selection models from high-throughput sequencing data. However, using these tools requires some scripting or command-line skills and familiarity with complex datasets. As a result, the application of the above models has not been available to a broad audience. In this application note, we fill this gap by presenting Simple OLGA & SONIA (SOS), a web-based interface where users with no coding skills can compute the generation and post-selection probabilities of their sequences, as well as generate batches of synthetic sequences. The application also functions on mobile phones. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: SOS is freely available to use at sites.google.com/view/statbiophysens/sos with source code at github.com/statbiophys/sos.

Generative models of T-cell receptor sequences.

T-cell receptors (TCR) are key proteins of the adaptive immune system, generated randomly in each individual, whose diversity underlies our ability to recognize infections and malignancies. Modeling the distribution of TCR sequences is of key importance for immunology and medical applications. Here, we compare two inference methods trained on high-throughput sequencing data: a knowledge-guided approach, which accounts for the details of sequence generation, supplemented by a physics-inspired model of selection; and a knowledge-free variational autoencoder based on deep artificial neural networks. We show that the knowledge-guided model outperforms the deep network approach at predicting TCR probabilities, while being more interpretable, at a lower computational cost.

A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network.

The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, so far there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. In this work, using the recently available world input-output database, we investigated the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a time series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different known properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies welfare. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node, and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the world economic network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average flow of the money.