Development of a stage-dependent prognostic model to predict psychosis in ultra-high-risk patients seeking treatment for co-morbid psychiatric disorders.

BACKGROUND: Current ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria appear insufficient to predict imminent onset of first-episode psychosis, as a meta-analysis showed that about 20% of patients have a psychotic outcome after 2 years. Therefore, we aimed to develop a stage-dependent predictive model in UHR individuals who were seeking help for co-morbid disorders. METHOD: Baseline data on symptomatology, and environmental and psychological factors of 185 UHR patients (aged 14-35 years) participating in the Dutch Early Detection and Intervention Evaluation study were analysed with Cox proportional hazard analyses. RESULTS: At 18 months, the overall transition rate was 17.3%. The final predictor model included five variables: observed blunted affect [hazard ratio (HR) 3.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.56-7.35, p < 0.001], subjective complaints of impaired motor function (HR 5.88, 95% CI 1.21-6.10, p = 0.02), beliefs about social marginalization (HR 2.76, 95% CI 1.14-6.72, p = 0.03), decline in social functioning (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.17, p = 0.03), and distress associated with suspiciousness (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03, p = 0.01). The positive predictive value of the model was 80.0%. The resulting prognostic index stratified the general risk into three risk classes with significantly different survival curves. In the highest risk class, transition to psychosis emerged on average ⩾8 months earlier than in the lowest risk class. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting a first-episode psychosis in help-seeking UHR patients was improved using a stage-dependent prognostic model including negative psychotic symptoms (observed flattened affect, subjective impaired motor functioning), impaired social functioning and distress associated with suspiciousness. Treatment intensity may be stratified and personalized using the risk stratification.

Cannabis use and transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk: review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has established the relationship between cannabis use and psychotic disorders. Whether cannabis use is related to transition to psychosis in patients at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis remains unclear. The present study aimed to review the existing evidence on the association between cannabis use and transition to psychosis in UHR samples. METHOD: A search of PsychInfo, Embase and Medline was conducted from 1996 to August 2015. The search yielded 5559 potentially relevant articles that were selected on title and abstract. Subsequently 36 articles were screened on full text for eligibility. Two random-effects meta-analyses were performed. First, we compared transition rates to psychosis of UHR individuals with lifetime cannabis use with non-cannabis-using UHR individuals. Second, we compared transition rates of UHR individuals with a current DSM-IV cannabis abuse or dependence diagnosis with lifetime users and non-using UHR individuals. RESULTS: We found seven prospective studies reporting on lifetime cannabis use in UHR subjects (n = 1171). Of these studies, five also examined current cannabis abuse or dependence. Lifetime cannabis use was not significantly associated with transition to psychosis [odds ratio (OR) 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.856-1.524, p = 0.37]. A second meta-analysis yielded an OR of 1.75 (95% CI 1.135-2.710, p = 0.01), indicating a significant association between current cannabis abuse or dependence and transition to psychosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that cannabis use was only predictive of transition to psychosis in those who met criteria for cannabis abuse or dependence, tentatively suggesting a dose-response relationship between current cannabis use and transition to psychosis.

Cost-effectiveness of preventing first-episode psychosis in ultra-high-risk subjects: multi-centre randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Although there is evidence for the effectiveness of interventions for psychosis among ultra-high-risk (UHR) groups, health economic evaluations are lacking. This study aimed to determine the cost effectiveness and cost-utility of cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) to prevent first-episode psychosis. METHOD: The Dutch Early Detection and Intervention Evaluation study was a randomized controlled trial of 196 UHR patients with an 18-month follow-up. All participants were treated with routine care (RC) for non-psychotic disorders. The experimental group (n = 95) received add-on CBT to prevent first-episode psychosis. We report the intervention, medical and travel costs, as well as costs arising from loss of productivity. Treatment response was defined as psychosis-free survival and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. RESULTS: In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the proportion of averted psychoses was significantly higher in the CBT condition (89.5% v. 76.2%). CBT showed a 63.7% probability of being more cost effective, because it was less costly than RC by US$844 (£551) per prevented psychosis. In the cost-utility analysis, QALY health gains were slightly higher for CBT than for RC (0.60 v. 0.57) and the CBT intervention had a 52.3% probability of being the superior treatment because, for equal or better QALY gains, the costs of CBT were lower than those of RC. CONCLUSIONS: Add-on preventive CBT for UHR resulted in a significant reduction in the incidence of first psychosis. QALY gains show little difference between the two conditions. The CBT intervention proved to be cost saving.