Multi-sectorial research is paramount for preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases.

The social, economic and political consequences of emerging infectious disease (EID) may escape the sphere in which they first arise. In recent years, many EIDs have revealed the close links between human, animal and plant health, highlighting the need for multi-scale, multisectorial EID management. Human beings play a dual role in EID because they can promote their development through numerous human-environment interfaces and expanding international trade. On the other hand, their ability to analyze, interpret and act on the determinants of EID allows them to access the expertise necessary to control these EIDs. This expertise must be constantly adapted to remain relevant as the EID evolves, particularly in its virulence or transmission channels. Flexibility should become an inherent part of the expertise-based decision-making process even if it means going backwards. A certain degree of transparency and feedback to citizens is necessary for the acceptability of political decisions basing on expertise. A key step in the management of EID is the appropriate management of the early signal of infectious emergence. This step combines multidisciplinary skills allowing access to the best pathway for containing EID by implementing early countermeasures adapted to the situation. New digital technologies could significantly improve this early detection phase. Finally, experts have a fundamental role to play because they are located at the interface between operational actors and decision-makers, which allows multidirectional feedback, ideally in real time, between professional actors and decision makers. To combat current and future EIDs, expertise should be based on a multi-sectorial approach, promotion of collegiality and continuously adaptation to the evolving nature of EIDs.

Pregnancy and contraception in a French cohort of HIV-infected women. SEROCO Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the impact of HIV diagnosis on contraception, incidence of pregnancy and live-births among HIV-infected women in France. DESIGN: Follow-up of women included in a French cohort of HIV-infected adults (SEROCO). METHODS: In 17 hospital-based units and one private practitioners' network in the Paris area and south-east region of France, 412 HIV-infected women (volunteers) were enrolled from 1988 to 1993, shortly after HIV diagnosis (median, 3 months), and followed for a median of 3 years. The main outcome measures were incidence and outcome of pregnancy, proportions of women sexually active and methods of contraception. RESULTS: The incidence of pregnancy decreased significantly from 20.4 per 100 person-years in the year preceding HIV diagnosis to 7.9 per 100 person-years after HIV diagnosis (P < 0.001), whereas the proportion of pregnancies voluntarily interrupted doubled (63 versus 29%). The proportion of women who were sexually inactive increased from 5% before HIV diagnosis to 20% thereafter. During followup, 80% of sexually active women were using contraceptive methods. CONCLUSIONS: The study supports an association between the discovery of HIV infection and a decrease in the proportion of women who are sexually active, a decrease in the incidence of pregnancy in general and live-births in particular, and an increase in the proportion of pregnancies voluntarily interrupted. Nevertheless, 24% of the women became pregnant and around 20% of sexually active women were not using any contraception. The high rate of voluntary abortion may indicate that many of these pregnancies were unplanned and could have been prevented.

[E3N, a cohort study on cancer risk factors in MGEN women. Description of protocol, main characteristics and population]. / E3N étude de cohorte sur les facteurs de risque de cancer auprès de femmes adhérentes de la MGEN. Description du protocole, des principales caractéristiques et de la population.

This paper describes the design of E3N, a prospective cohort study on risk factors for female cancers, conducted in France. The cohort includes 100,000 women, aged 40 to 65 years at baseline in 1990. Participants were asked to complete questionnaires every 18 months. The main hypotheses studied concern the relationships between diet and cancer and between hormonal treatments and cancer. All cancer sites are registered together with other diseases (cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, osteoporosis). The follow-up procedure and the study population are described.

Influence of neurologic manifestations of primary human immunodeficiency virus infection on disease progression. SEROCO Study Group.

To determine the influence of neurologic manifestations of primary human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on disease progression, 277 nonhemophiliac adults enrolled < 1 year after HIV infection were studied. Patients with neurologic manifestations during symptomatic primary HIV infection (PSI) (group N+; n = 23), with nonneurologic manifestations (group N-; n = 112) during PSI, and without any clinical manifestation during primary infection (group NPI; n = 142) were compared for disease progression. Age at infection, sex, mode of infection and CD4+ cell count at first visit did not differ between groups. In a Cox model, the relative risk (RR) of developing AIDS was 6.11 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.94-19.28) in group N+ and 2.32 (95% CI, 0.93-5.83) in group N- compared with group NPI. The RR of AIDS onset after adjustment for treatment and age at infection was, respectively, 4.65 (95% CI, 1.43-15.03) and 2.03 (95% CI, 0.80-5.19) in groups N+ and N-. Neurologic manifestations of primary HIV infection are associated with an accelerated progression of disease.

[Multicenter French cohort of adults with HIV infection. Description and course after 4 years of follow-up. SEROCO]. / Cohorte francaise multicentrique d'adultes infectés par le VIH. Description et évolution après 4 ans de suivi. SEROCO.

OBJECTIVES: A prospective multicentric epidemiological study (SEROCO) of subjects with a diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was started on January 1, 1988 in order to better understand the natural history of HIV infection and factors related to outcome. Observations after 4 years of follow-up are reported here. METHODS: After authorization by the French national ethics committee and the national commission for personal freedom, 18 French centres included non-haemophiliac volunteers who were asymptomatic, had had non anti-HIV treatment and whose HIV positivity had been known less than 1 year at inclusion. These last three criteria were not required for patients whose precise date of contamination was known within a range of +/- 3 months. RESULTS: On July 15, 1992, there were 1453 infected subjects in the cohort (1063 males, 417 females; age range at inclusion 18-75 years; mean age 31.3 +/- 9.4). Globally, 2.7% of the subjects were symptomatic at inclusion. Mean CD4 lymphocyte count at inclusion was 508/mm3. Clinically, 51.5% of the patients had a history of sexually transmitted disease at inclusion. After 4 years (on July 15, 1992) mean follow-up was 28 +/- 12.9 months for a total of 3428 patient-years. Disease progression to stage IV was observed in 439 patients including 202 who developed the acquired immuno-deficiency syndrome (AIDS). Among these 202 patients, 113 had died at the end-point of this report. The first manifestation of AIDS was Kaposi sarcoma in 44, pulmonary pneumocystosis in 38 and cerebral toxoplasmosis in 27. The probability of developing AIDS was calculated at 13.9% at 5 years, 27.7% at 7 years and 33.7% at 10 years. The probability of a CD4 count below 200/mm3 was 32.7, 55.6 and 67% at 5, 7 and 10 years respectively. For patients with a CD4 count below 200, the probability of developing AIDS was 18% at 1 year, 39% at 2 years and 51% at 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: SEROCO has been a most useful prospective epidemiological tool due to the diversity of the subjects included. The observed natural history of HIV infection will lead to specific research projects aimed at better understanding the disease process.

Effect of age and exposure group on the onset of AIDS in heterosexual and homosexual HIV-infected patients. SEROCO Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the influence of age at seroconversion and sexual exposure group on the progression of HIV disease. DESIGN: This multicentre prospective cohort study involved 443 subjects whose date of HIV infection was known to within +/- 1 year. Individuals whose sexual behaviour was exclusively heterosexual after HIV infection constituted the heterosexual group (n = 131). AIDS-free survival was compared with that of men (n = 312) infected through homosexual sex and who continued homosexual activity after HIV infection. They constituted the homosexual group. METHODS: The end-point was the onset of an AIDS-defining illness listed in the 1987 revised Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) criteria. Using the Kaplan-Meier method, AIDS-free survival curves were plotted for three age categories (< 20, 20-39, > or = 40 years). A Cox model was used to quantify the effect of age and to assess the influence of exposure group on AIDS onset after adjustment for age. Because of the high incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) among homosexual men, a disease that can be an early AIDS-defining illness, multivariate analysis was performed with and without consideration of the occurrence of KS. RESULTS: Patients aged > or = 40 years at seroconversion progressed more rapidly to AIDS than younger patients (P < 0.006). When age was fitted as a continuous variable and adjusted for exposure group, the relative risk of developing AIDS by any time after seroconversion was 1.34 for a 10-year increase difference [P = 0.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.77]. After adjustment for age, the relative risk of developing AIDS (CDC criteria) was 2.42 (P = 0.008; 95% CI, 1.18-4.97) among the homosexual men (AIDS cases, n = 56). All cases of KS (n = 19) involved the homosexual group. Excluding KS as a first manifestation of AIDS, homosexual or bisexual subjects had a risk of AIDS of 1.92 (P = 0.07; 95% CI, 0.92-4.03) compared with heterosexual subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of AIDS increases with age at seroconversion. The more rapid progression towards AIDS in the homosexual group than in the heterosexual group persisted after adjustment for age. Further studies are required to determine the possible role of repeated exposure to HIV or other pathogens acquired sexually.