Whom to treat? The contribution of vertebral X-rays to risk-based algorithms for fracture prediction. Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study.

INTRODUCTION: Vertebral fracture is a strong risk factor for future spine and hip fractures; yet recent data suggest that only 5-20% of subjects with a spine fracture are identified in primary care. We aimed to develop easily applicable algorithms predicting a high risk of future spine fracture in men and women over 50 years of age. METHODS: Data was analysed from 5,561 men and women aged 50+ years participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Lateral thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were taken at baseline and at an average of 3.8 years later. These were evaluated by an experienced radiologist. The risk of a new (incident) vertebral fracture was modelled as a function of age, number of prevalent vertebral fractures, height loss, sex and other fracture history reported by the subject, including limb fractures occurring between X-rays. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of models. RESULTS: In a negative binomial regression model without baseline X-ray data, the risk of incident vertebral fracture significantly increased with age [RR 1.74, 95% CI (1.44, 2.10) per decade], height loss [1.08 (1.04, 1.12) per cm decrease], female sex [1.48 (1.05, 2.09)], and recalled fracture history; [1.65 (1.15, 2.38) to 3.03 (1.66, 5.54)] according to fracture site. Baseline radiological assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture significantly improved the areas subtended by ROC curves from 0.71 (0.67, 0.74) to 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) P=0.013 for predicting 1+ incident fracture; and from 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) to 0.83 (0.76, 0.90) P=0.001 for 2+ incident fractures. Age, sex and height loss remained independently predictive. The relative risk of a new vertebral fracture increased with the number of prevalent vertebral fractures present from 3.08 (2.10, 4.52) for 1 fracture to 9.36 (5.72, 15.32) for 3+. At a specificity of 90%, the model including X-ray data improved the sensitivity for predicting 2+ and 1+ incident fractures by 6 and 4 fold respectively compared with random guessing. At 75% specificity the improvements were 3.2 and 2.4 fold respectively. With the modelling restricted to the subjects who had BMD measurements (n=2,409), the AUC for predicting 1+ vs. 0 incident vertebral fractures improved from 0.72 (0.66, 0.79) to 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) upon adding femoral neck BMD (P=0.010). CONCLUSION: We conclude that for those with existing vertebral fractures, an accurately read spine X-ray will form a central component in future algorithms for targeting treatment, especially to the most vulnerable. The sensitivity of this approach to identifying vertebral fracture cases requiring anti-osteoporosis treatment, even when X-rays are ordered highly selectively, exceeds by a large margin the current standard of practice as recorded anywhere in the world.

Back pain, disability, and radiographic vertebral fracture in European women: a prospective study.

Vertebral fractures are associated with back pain and disability. There are, however, few prospective data looking at back pain and disability following identification of radiographic vertebral fracture. The aim of this analysis was to determine the impact of radiographically identified vertebral fracture on the subsequent occurrence of back pain and disability. Women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 18 European centers for participation in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study. Participants completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire which included questions about back pain in the past year and various activities of daily living, and they had lateral spine radiographs performed. Participants in these centers were followed prospectively and had repeat spine radiographs performed a mean of 3.7 years later. In addition they completed a questionnaire with the same baseline questions concerning back pain and activities of daily living. The presence of prevalent and incident vertebral fracture was defined using established morphometric criteria. The data were analyzed using logistic regression with back pain or disability (present or absent) at follow-up as the outcome variable with adjustment made for the baseline value of the variable. The study included 2,260 women, mean age 62.2 years. The mean time between baseline and follow-up survey was 5.0 years. Two hundred and forty participants had prevalent fractures at the baseline survey, and 85 developed incident fractures during follow-up. After adjustment for age, center, and the baseline level of disability, compared with those without baseline prevalent fracture, those with a prevalent fracture (odds ratio [OR] = 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0 to 2.0) or an incident fracture (OR = 1.7; 95% CI, 0.9 to 3.2) were more likely to report disability at follow-up, though the confidence intervals embraced unity. Those with both a prevalent and incident fracture, however, were significantly more likely to report disability at follow-up (OR = 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4 to 7.0). After adjustment for age, center, and frequency of back pain at baseline, compared with those without baseline vertebral fracture, those with a prevalent fracture were no more likely to report back pain at follow-up (OR = 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8 to 1.7). There was a small increased risk among those with a preexisting fracture who had sustained an incident fracture during follow-up (OR = 1.6; 95% CI, 0.6 to 4.1) though the confidence intervals embraced unity. In conclusion, although there was no significant increase in the level of back pain an average of 5 years following identification of radiographic vertebral fracture, women who suffered a further fracture during follow-up experienced substantial levels of disability with impairment in key physical functions of independent living.

Determinants of the size of incident vertebral deformities in European men and women in the sixth to ninth decades of age: the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS).

UNLABELLED: More severe vertebral fractures have more personal impact. In the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study, more severe vertebral collapse was predictable from prior fracture characteristics. Subjects with bi-concave or crush fractures at baseline had a 2-fold increase in incident fracture size and thus increased risk of a disabling future fracture. INTRODUCTION: According to Euler's buckling theory, loss of horizontal trabeculae in vertebrae increases the risk of fracture and suggests that the extent of vertebral collapse will be increased in proportion. We tested the hypothesis that the characteristics of a baseline deformity would influence the size of a subsequent deformity. METHODS: In 207 subjects participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study who suffered an incident spine fracture in a previously normal vertebra, we estimated loss of volume (fracture size) from plane film images of all vertebral bodies that were classified as having a new fracture. The sum of the three vertebral heights (anterior, mid-body, and posterior) obtained at follow-up was subtracted from the sum of the same measures at baseline. Each of the summed height loss for vertebrae with a McCloskey-Kanis deformity on the second film was expressed as a percentage. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: In univariate models, the numbers of baseline deformities and the clinical category of the most severe baseline deformity were each significantly associated with the size of the most severe incident fracture and with the cumulated sum of all vertebral height losses. In multivariate modeling, age and the clinical category of the baseline deformity (crush > bi-concave > uni-concave > wedge) were the strongest determinants of both more severe and cumulative height loss. Baseline biconcave and crush fractures were associated at follow-up with new fractures that were approximately twice as large as those seen with other types of deformity or who previously had undeformed spines. In conclusion, the characteristics of a baseline vertebral deformity determines statistically the magnitude of vertebral body volume lost when a subsequent fracture occurs. Because severity of fracture and number of fractures are determinants of impact, the results should improve prediction of the future personal impact of osteoporosis once a baseline prevalent deformity has been identified.

Incidence of limb fracture across Europe: results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS).

The aim of this population-based prospective study was to determine the incidence of limb fracture by site and gender in different regions of Europe. Men and women aged 50-79 years were recruited from population registers in 31 European centers. Subjects were invited to attend for an interviewer-administered questionnaire and lateral spinal radiographs. Subjects were subsequently followed up using an annual postal questionnaire which included questions concerning the occurrence of new fractures. Self-reported fractures were confirmed where possible by radiograph, attending physician or subject interview. There were 6451 men and 6936 women followed for a median of 3.0 years. During this time there were 140 incident limb fractures in men and 391 in women. The age-adjusted incidence of any limb fracture was 7.3/1000 person-years [pyrs] in men and 19 per 1000 pyrs in women, equivalent to a 2.5 times excess in women. Among women, the incidence of hip, humerus and distal forearm fracture, though not 'other' limb fracture, increased with age, while in men only the incidence of hip and humerus fracture increased with age. Among women, there was evidence of significant variation in the occurrence of hip, distal forearm and humerus fractures across Europe, with incidence rates higher in Scandinavia than in other European regions, though for distal forearm fracture the incidence in east Europe was similar to that observed in Scandinavia. Among men, there was no evidence of significant geographic variation in the occurrence of these fractures. This is the first large population-based study to characterize the incidence of limb fracture in men and women over 50 years of age across Europe. There are substantial differences in the descriptive epidemiology of limb fracture by region and gender.

Incidence of vertebral fracture in europe: results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS).

Vertebral fracture is one of the major adverse clinical consequences of osteoporosis; however, there are few data concerning the incidence of vertebral fracture in population samples of men and women. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of vertebral fracture in European men and women. A total of 14,011 men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population-based registers in 29 European centers and had an interviewer-administered questionnaire and lateral spinal radiographs performed. The response rate for participation in the study was approximately 50%. Repeat spinal radiographs were performed a mean of 3.8 years following the baseline film. All films were evaluated morphometrically. The definition of a morphometric fracture was a vertebra in which there was evidence of a 20% (+4 mm) or more reduction in anterior, middle, or posterior vertebral height between films--plus the additional requirement that a vertebra satisfy criteria for a prevalent deformity (using the McCloskey-Kanis method) in the follow-up film. There were 3174 men, mean age 63.1 years, and 3,614 women, mean age 62.2 years, with paired duplicate spinal radiographs (48% of those originally recruited to the baseline survey). The age standardized incidence of morphometric fracture was 10.7/1,000 person years (pyr) in women and 5.7/1,000 pyr in men. The age-standardized incidence of vertebral fracture as assessed qualitatively by the radiologist was broadly similar-12.1/1,000 pyr and 6.8/1,000 pyr, respectively. The incidence increased markedly with age in both men and women. There was some evidence of geographic variation in fracture occurrence; rates were higher in Sweden than elsewhere in Europe. This is the first large population-based study to ascertain the incidence of vertebral fracture in men and women over 50 years of age across Europe. The data confirm the frequent occurrence of the disorder in men as well as in women and the rise in incidence with age.

Falls explain between-center differences in the incidence of limb fracture across Europe.

There is important geographic variation in the occurrence of the major osteoporotic fractures across Europe. The aim of this study was to determine whether between-center variation in limb fracture rates across Europe could be explained by variation in the incidence of falls. Men and women, aged 50-79 years, were recruited from population-based registers in 30 European centers. Subjects were followed by postal questionnaire to ascertain the occurrence of incident fractures, and were also asked about the occurrence and number of recent falls. Self-reported fractures were confirmed, where possible, by review of the radiographs, medical record, or subject interview. The age- and gender-adjusted incidence of falls was calculated by center using Poisson regression. Poisson regression was also used to assess the extent to which between-center differences in the incidence of limb fractures could be explained by differences in the age- and gender-adjusted incidence of falls at those centers. In all, 6302 men (mean age 63.9 years) and 6761 women (mean age 63.1 years) completed at least one questionnaire concerning fractures and falls. During a median follow-up time of 3 years, 3647 falls were reported by men and 4783 by women. After adjusting for age and gender, there was evidence of significant between-center differences in the occurrence of falls. There was also between-center variation in the occurrence of upper limb, lower limb, and distal forearm fractures. Variation in the age- and gender-adjusted center-specific fall rates explained 24%, 14%, and 6% of the between-center variation in incidence of distal forearm and upper and lower limb fractures, respectively. Given the constraints inherent in such an analysis, in men and women aged 50-79 years, variation in fall rates could explain a significant proportion of the between-center variation in the incidence of limb fracture across Europe.

[Clinical value of urinary pyridinium crosslinks as osteoporosis markers: evaluation of a population survey of vertebral osteoporosis]. / Sind Crosslinks klinisch aussagekräftige Osteoporosemarker? Evaluation in einem Bevölkerungsquerschnitt.

BACKGROUND: The diagnostic value of biochemical parameters of bone turnover for the diagnosis of osteoporosis is open to discussion. We investigated whether the determination of crosslinks, bone type I collagen degradation products, correctly identifies osteoporotic subjects. PATIENTS AND METHOD: In a sample of 370 individuals recruited at random within a population survey of vertebral osteoporosis, urinary concentration of total pyridinoline and desoxypyridinoline were determined by HPLC. Standardized lateral X-rays of the thoracic and lumbar spine were taken and evaluated morphometrically using the method described by Eastell-Melton. RESULTS: Crosslink excretion was significantly higher in female but not in male individuals with vertebral deformities as defined by Eastell. The specificity of these biochemical parameters with regard to radiological osteoporotic alterations was 76-81%, but the sensitivity was 32.4-42.9% only. CONCLUSION: Pyridinoline and desoxypyridinoline reflect the process of bone degradation which leads to vertebral deformity. Crosslinks are specific markers of bone resorption and provide a valid parameter in the diagnosis of osteoporosis. The low sensitivity indicates that the measurement of pyridinoline and desoxypyridinoline is less suitable for screening purposes, but may be useful in confirming presence or extent of osteoporosis.

TGFbeta1 and TGFbeta2 mRNA and protein expression in human bone samples.

Transforming growth factor beta is one of the most abundant growth factors stored in bone. It is known as a potent regulator of osteoblast proliferation and differentiation as well as of production extracellular matrix. We established a highly specific RT-PCR in combination with HPLC for detection and quantification of TGFbeta1 and TGFbeta2 mRNA expression in 89 human bone samples. Levels of TGFbeta1 protein ranged between 27 and 580 ng/g bone (mean 188 +/- 15 ng/g; n=75) and for TGFbeta2 between 7.2 and 35 ng/g bone (mean 14.3 +/- 2.1 ng/g; n=57). TGFbeta1 and TGFbeta2 protein concentrations and TGFbeta isoform mRNA expression in bone were not significantly different between the sexes. TGFbeta isoform mRNA expression as well as protein content in bone declined age dependently. TGFbeta1 and TGFbeta2 protein and mRNA expression were different in bone samples from different sites of the skeleton indicating in part the regulation by mechanical stimuli. In contrast to TGFbeta1, TGFbeta2 mRNA expression was significantly enhanced in osteoarthritic bone compared to unaffected bone. These data are in concordance to previous results concerning the expression of TGFbeta3 in bone. In conclusion, the data suggest distinct patterns' of expression of the TGFbeta isoforms under physiological and pathological conditions in bone.

Analysis of TGFbeta3 gene expression and protein levels in human bone and serum.

Recent data indicate that TGFbeta3, one member of the TGFbeta-isoforms, has an important role in bone remodeling. Up to date little is known about the expression and regulation of TGFbeta3 in man. We established a highly specific ELISA for quantitative measurement of TGFbeta3 in bone and blood samples and a RT-PCR in combination with HPLC for detection and quantification of TGFbeta3 mRNA in 89 human bone samples. Levels of TGFbeta3 protein ranged between 30 and 66 pg/mg bone (mean 36,6 +/-1,03 pg/mg) and between 30 and 1910 pg/ml in serum (mean 128.9+/-38.9 pg/ml). TGFbeta3 mRNA expression as well as protein levels in serum and in bone declined age dependently. No specific load- or site-specific distribution of TGFbeta3 mRNA expression or protein content was detected at different sites indicating an absence of mechanical regulation. Protein levels of TGFbeta3 in serum correlated with TGFbeta3 mRNA expression in bone (p= 0.0027; r=0.49). By contrast, TGFbeta3 protein levels stored in the bone matrix were not related to TGFbeta3 mRNA reflecting the long term process of TGFbeta3 deposition during bone remodeling. Notably TGFbeta3 serum levels were highly correlated with IGF-I and osteocalcin levels in serum. We conclude that TGFbeta3 in man circulates in significant amounts which appears to be representative for TGFbeta3 expression in bone tissue and may be in part derived from bone. The high correlation of TGFbeta3 with IGF-I suggests parallel systemic principles of regulation.

Prevalent vertebral deformity predicts incident hip though not distal forearm fracture: results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study.

The presence of a vertebral deformity increases the risk of subsequent spinal deformities. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether the presence of vertebral deformity predicts incident hip and other limb fractures. Six thousand three hundred and forty-four men and 6788 women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 31 European centers and followed prospectively for a median of 3 years. All subjects had radiographs performed at baseline and the presence of vertebral deformity was assessed using established morphometric methods. Incident limb fractures which occurred during the follow- up period were ascertained by annual postal questionnaire and confirmed by radiographs, review of medical records and personal interview. During a total of 40348 person-years of follow-up, 138 men and 391 women sustained a limb fracture. Amongst the women, after adjustment for age, prevalent vertebral deformity was a strong predictor of incident hip fracture, (rate ratio (RR) = 4.5; 95% CI 2.1-9.4) and a weak predictor of 'other' limb fractures (RR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.1-2.4), though not distal forearm fracture (RR = 1.0; 95% CI 0.6-1.6). The predictive risk increased with increasing number of prevalent deformities, particularly for subsequent hip fracture: for two or more deformities, RR = 7.2 (95% CI 3.0-17.3). Amongst men, vertebral deformity was not associated with an increased risk of incident limb fracture though there was a nonsignificant trend toward an increased risk of hip fracture with increasing number of deformities. In summary, prevalent radiographic vertebral deformities in women are a strong predictor of hip fracture, and to a lesser extent humerus and 'other' limb fractures; however, they do not predict distal forearm fractures.

Circulating tumor necrosis factor alpha is elevated in male but not in female patients with type II diabetes mellitus.

The cytokine tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha) was proposed to mediate obesity related insulin resistance upon production in fat cells and to participate in tissue remodelling leading to vascular complications upon being released by macrophages. To assess its putative role in diabetes we determined plasma levels of TNF alpha in 105 adult humans. Male nondiabetic subjects had significantly lower TNF alpha levels than female controls (4.4 +/- 0.3, n = 17 vs. 6.6 +/- 1.0 pg/ml, n = 13; p = 0.049). Men with NIDDM had elevated TNF alpha (6.7 +/- 0.6 pg/ml, n = 34) compared to nondiabetic subjects (4.4 +/- 0.3 pg/ml, n = 17; p = 0.012). Such a difference was not apparent in women. Levels of TNF alpha were correlated with serum triglyceride levels in male controls (r2 = 0.64; p = 0.007) but not in NIDDM. Neither body mass index nor glycosylated hemoglobin correlated with TNF alpha in any of the groups. The presence of retinopathy (p = 0.046) but not of neuropathy or nephropathy or macroangiopathy was associated with significantly elevated plasma TNF alpha. We conclude that plasma levels of TNF alpha are sex-dependent and that increased TNF alpha occurs in male but not female NIDDM and may participate in the development of diabetic complications.