Role of Systemic Factors in Improving the Prognosis of Diabetic Retinal Disease and Predicting Response to Diabetic Retinopathy Treatment.

Topic: To review clinical evidence on systemic factors that might be relevant to update diabetic retinal disease (DRD) staging systems, including prediction of DRD onset, progression, and response to treatment. Clinical relevance: Systemic factors may improve new staging systems for DRD to better assess risk of disease worsening and predict response to therapy. Methods: The Systemic Health Working Group of the Mary Tyler Moore Vision Initiative reviewed systemic factors individually and in multivariate models for prediction of DRD onset or progression (i.e., prognosis) or response to treatments (prediction). Results: There was consistent evidence for associations of longer diabetes duration, higher glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and male sex with DRD onset and progression. There is strong trial evidence for the effect of reducing HbA1c and reducing DRD progression. There is strong evidence that higher blood pressure (BP) is a risk factor for DRD incidence and for progression. Pregnancy has been consistently reported to be associated with worsening of DRD but recent studies reflecting modern care standards are lacking. In studies examining multivariate prognostic models of DRD onset, HbA1c and diabetes duration were consistently retained as significant predictors of DRD onset. There was evidence of associations of BP and sex with DRD onset. In multivariate prognostic models examining DRD progression, retinal measures were consistently found to be a significant predictor of DRD with little evidence of any useful marginal increment in prognostic information with the inclusion of systemic risk factor data apart from retinal image data in multivariate models. For predicting the impact of treatment, although there are small studies that quantify prognostic information based on imaging data alone or systemic factors alone, there are currently no large studies that quantify marginal prognostic information within a multivariate model, including both imaging and systemic factors. Conclusion: With standard imaging techniques and ways of processing images rapidly evolving, an international network of centers is needed to routinely capture systemic health factors simultaneously to retinal images so that gains in prediction increment may be precisely quantified to determine the usefulness of various health factors in the prognosis of DRD and prediction of response to treatment. Financial Disclosures: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Potential mitigating role of ivermectin on the spread of Chlamydia trachomatis by Musca sorbens.

Trachoma is the world's most frequent cause of blindness from an infectious agent. The disease caused by infection is associated with lack of access to sanitation and low hygiene standards. Trachoma is controlled through the Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial cleanliness, and Environmental improvement (SAFE) strategy, which delivers azithromycin (AZM) mass drug administration (MDA) in endemic areas. The putative vector Musca sorbens principally reproduce in human faecal matter left in the environment due to open defecation. Ivermectin (IVM) is on the WHO's essential medicines list and is administered as preventative chemotherapy against two neglected tropical diseases (NTDs)-onchocerciasis, as an annual or bi-annual treatment, and lymphatic filariasis, as an annual treatment in combination with albendazole. Ivermectin has a known inhibitive effect on insects that reproduce in dung. To assess if IVM could be a viable vector control tool against M. sorbens, this study evaluates existing data from trachoma, onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis mass drug administration (MDA) operations in Ethiopia. Persistent and recrudescent trachoma in evaluation units (EUs) were examined for whether AZM MDA in EUs was accompanied by IVM MDA, and whether co-administration was associated with greater likelihood of trachoma control. Results show an association suggesting that EUs that received both IVM and AZM MDA benefit from improved control of trachoma in persistent or recrudescent areas, when compared to EUs that received AZM MDA. This initial investigation supports the potential for ivermectin's use to support SAFE. Findings warrant further work to validate ivermectin's impact on M. sorbens reproduction through controlled lab and field-based studies.

Comparison of standard and modified human landing catching techniques for blackfly collection.

BACKGROUND: Human landing catches (HLCs) are required to collect blackflies for entomological evaluation to verify onchocerciasis elimination. However, there are ethical concerns regarding exposure of vector collectors to infectious blackflies and safer alternative methods are needed. This study evaluated a modified HLC technique where collectors wore coloured trousers (blue, black or blue-black), protecting them from bites during fly collection, and their performance was compared with the standard. METHODS: The study was conducted in Makouopsap, Cameroon, in the Massangam health district for 4 months. Four collector pairs-one 'standard' (bare-legged) and three modified-were placed 50 m apart along known breeding sites on the Mbam and Nja Rivers. Collections were performed from 07:00 to 17:00 h, 4 d/month. Hourly rates of flies caught were analysed using a negative binomial generalised linear model to explore associations between flies caught and collection techniques and seasons. RESULTS: Overall, 17 246 blackflies were caught. There was no significant statistical difference in the number of blackflies and parous flies caught between black trousers and the standard. Thus there is a strong indication that wearing black trousers is a viable non-inferior alternative to the standard HLC. CONCLUSIONS: Further studies are needed to confirm generalisability in different ecozones and transmission environments and among different blackfly species.

Large socioeconomic gap in period life expectancy and life years spent with complications of diabetes in the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes, 2013-2018.

BACKGROUND: We report the first study to estimate the socioeconomic gap in period life expectancy (LE) and life years spent with and without complications in a national cohort of individuals with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used linked healthcare records from SCI-Diabetes, the population-based diabetes register of Scotland. We studied all individuals aged 50 and older with a diagnosis of type 1 diabetes who were alive and residing in Scotland on 1 January 2013 (N = 8591). We used the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2016 as an area-based measure of socioeconomic deprivation. For each individual, we constructed a history of transitions by capturing whether individuals developed retinopathy/maculopathy, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetic foot, or died throughout the study period, which lasted until 31 December 2018. Using parametric multistate survival models, we estimated total and state-specific LE at an attained age of 50. RESULTS: At age 50, remaining LE was 22.2 years (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 21.6 - 22.8) for males and 25.1 years (95% CI: 24.4 - 25.9) for females. Remaining LE at age 50 was around 8 years lower among the most deprived SIMD quintile when compared with the least deprived SIMD quintile: 18.7 years (95% CI: 17.5 - 19.9) vs. 26.3 years (95% CI: 24.5 - 28.1) among males, and 21.2 years (95% CI: 19.7 - 22.7) vs. 29.3 years (95% CI: 27.5 - 31.1) among females. The gap in life years spent without complications was around 5 years between the most and the least deprived SIMD quintile: 4.9 years (95% CI: 3.6 - 6.1) vs. 9.3 years (95% CI: 7.5 - 11.1) among males, and 5.3 years (95% CI: 3.7 - 6.9) vs. 10.3 years (95% CI: 8.3 - 12.3) among females. SIMD differences in transition rates decreased marginally when controlling for time-updated information on risk factors such as HbA1c, blood pressure, BMI, or smoking. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to societal interventions, tailored support to reduce the impact of diabetes is needed for individuals from low socioeconomic backgrounds, including access to innovations in management of diabetes and the prevention of complications.

Flash monitor initiation is associated with improvements in HbA1c levels and DKA rates among people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland: a retrospective nationwide observational study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We assessed the real-world effect of flash monitor (FM) usage on HbA1c levels and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH) rates among people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland and across sociodemographic strata within this population. METHODS: This study was retrospective, observational and registry based. Using the national diabetes registry, 14,682 individuals using an FM at any point between 2014 and mid-2020 were identified. Within-person change from baseline in HbA1c following FM initiation was modelled using linear mixed models accounting for within-person pre-exposure trajectory. DKA and SHH events were captured through linkage to hospital admission and mortality data. The difference in DKA and SHH rates between FM-exposed and -unexposed person-time was assessed among users, using generalised linear mixed models with a Poisson likelihood. In a sensitivity analysis, we tested whether changes in these outcomes were seen in an age-, sex- and baseline HbA1c-matched sample of non-users over the same time period. RESULTS: Prevalence of ever-FM use was 45.9% by mid-2020, with large variations by age and socioeconomic status: 64.3% among children aged <13 years vs 32.7% among those aged ≥65 years; and 54.4% vs 36.2% in the least-deprived vs most-deprived quintile. Overall, the median (IQR) within-person change in HbA1c in the year following FM initiation was -2.5 (-9.0, 2.5) mmol/mol (-0.2 [-0.8, 0.2]%). The change varied widely by pre-usage HbA1c: -15.5 (-31.0, -4.0) mmol/mol (-1.4 [-2.8, -0.4]%) in those with HbA1c > 84 mmol/mol [9.8%] and 1.0 (-2.0, 5.5) mmol/mol (0.1 [-0.2, 0.5]%) in those with HbA1c < 54 mmol/mol (7.1%); the corresponding estimated fold change (95% CI) was 0.77 (0.76, 0.78) and 1.08 (1.07, 1.09). Significant reductions in HbA1c were found in all age bands, sexes and socioeconomic strata, and regardless of prior/current pump use, completion of a diabetes education programme or early FM adoption. Variation between the strata of these factors beyond that driven by differing HbA1c at baseline was slight. No change in HbA1c in matched non-users was observed in the same time period (median [IQR] within-person change = 0.5 [-5.0, 5.5] mmol/mol [0.0 (-0.5, 0.5)%]). DKA rates decreased after FM initiation overall and in all strata apart from the adolescents. Estimated overall reduction in DKA event rates (rate ratio) was 0.59 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.53, 0.64]) after FM vs before FM initiation, accounting for pre-exposure trend. Finally, among those at higher risk for SHH, estimated reduction in event rates was rate ratio 0.25 (95%CrI 0.20, 0.32) after FM vs before FM initiation. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: FM initiation is associated with clinically important reductions in HbA1c and striking reduction in DKA rate. Increasing uptake among the socioeconomically disadvantaged offers considerable potential for tightening the current socioeconomic disparities in glycaemia-related outcomes.

Rising Rates and Widening Socioeconomic Disparities in Diabetic Ketoacidosis in Type 1 Diabetes in Scotland: A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Observational Study.

OBJECTIVE: Whether advances in the management of type 1 diabetes are reducing rates of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is unclear. We investigated time trends in DKA rates in a national cohort of individuals with type 1 diabetes monitored for 14 years, overall and by socioeconomic characteristics. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: All individuals in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were alive and at least 1 year old between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018 were identified using the national register (N = 37,939). DKA deaths and hospital admissions were obtained through linkage to Scottish national death and morbidity records. Bayesian regression was used to test for DKA time trends and association with risk markers, including socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: There were 30,427 DKA admissions and 472 DKA deaths observed over 393,223 person-years at risk. DKA event rates increased over the study period (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per year 1.058 [95% credibility interval 1.054-1.061]). Males had lower rates than females (IRR male-to-female 0.814 [0.776-0.855]). DKA incidence rose in all age-groups other than 10- to 19-year-olds, in whom rates were the highest, but fell over the study. There was a large socioeconomic differential (IRR least-to-most deprived quintile 0.446 [0.406-0.490]), which increased during follow-up. Insulin pump use or completion of structured education were associated with lower DKA rates, and antidepressant and methadone prescription were associated with higher DKA rates. CONCLUSIONS: DKA incidence has risen since 2004, except in 10- to 19-year-olds. Of particular concern are the strong and widening socioeconomic disparities in DKA outcomes. Efforts to prevent DKA, especially in vulnerable groups, require strengthening.

Marked improvements in glycaemic outcomes following insulin pump therapy initiation in people with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide observational study in Scotland.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to assess the use of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) in people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland and its association with glycaemic control, as measured by HbA1c levels, frequency of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH), overall and stratified by baseline HbA1c. METHODS: We included 4684 individuals with type 1 diabetes from the national Scottish register, who commenced CSII between 2004 and 2019. We presented crude within-person differences from baseline HbA1c over time since initiation, crude DKA and SHH event-rates pre-/post-CSII exposure. We then used mixed models to assess the significance of CSII exposure, taking into account: (1) the diffuse nature of the intervention (i.e. structured education often precedes initiation); (2) repeated within-person measurements; and (3) background time-trends occurring pre-intervention. RESULTS: HbA1c decreased after CSII initiation, with a median within-person change of -5.5 mmol/mol (IQR -12.0, 0.0) (-0.5% [IQR -1.1, 0.0]). Within-person changes were most substantial in those with the highest baseline HbA1c, with median -21.0 mmol/mol (-30.0, -11.0) (-1.9% [-2.7, -1.0]) change in those with a baseline >84 mmol/mol (9.8%) within a year of exposure, that was sustained: -19.0 mmol/mol (-27.6, -6.5) (-1.7% [-2.5, -0.6]) at ≥5 years. Statistical significance and magnitude of change were supported by the mixed models results. The crude DKA event-rate was significantly lower in post-CSII person-time compared with pre-CSII person-time: 49.6 events (95% CI 46.3, 53.1) per 1000 person-years vs 67.9 (64.1, 71.9); rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.61 (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.47, 0.77; posterior probability of reduction pp = 1.00). The crude overall SHH event-rate in post-CSII vs pre-CSII person-time was also lower: 17.8 events (95% CI 15.8, 19.9) per 1000 person-years post-exposure vs 25.8 (23.5, 28.3) pre-exposure; rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.67 (95% CrI 0.45, 1.01; pp = 0.97). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: CSII therapy was associated with marked falls in HbA1c especially in those with high baseline HbA1c. CSII was independently associated with reduced DKA and SHH rates. CSII appears to be an effective option for intensive insulin therapy in people with diabetes for improving suboptimal glycaemic control.

The association of polypharmacy and high-risk drug classes with adverse health outcomes in the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to map the number of prescribed drugs over age, sex and area-based socioeconomic deprivation, and to examine the association between the number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes with adverse health outcomes among a national cohort of individuals with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Utilising linked healthcare records from the population-based diabetes register of Scotland, we identified 28,245 individuals with a diagnosis of type 1 diabetes on 1 January 2017. For this population, we obtained information on health status, predominantly reflecting diabetes-related complications, and information on the total number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes prescribed. We then studied the association of these baseline-level features with hospital admissions for falls, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), and hypoglycaemia or death within the subsequent year using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Not considering insulin and treatment for hypoglycaemia, the mean number of prescribed drugs was 4.00 (SD 4.35). The proportion of individuals being prescribed five or more drugs at baseline consistently increased with age (proportion [95% CI]: 0-19 years 2.04% [1.60, 2.49]; 40-49 years 28.50% [27.08, 29.93]; 80+ years 76.04% [67.73, 84.84]). Controlling for age, sex, area-based socioeconomic deprivation and health status, each additional drug at baseline was associated with an increase in the hazard for hospitalisation for falls, hypoglycaemia and death but not for DKA admissions (HR [95% CI]: falls 1.03 [1.01, 1.06]; DKA 1.01 [1.00, 1.03]; hypoglycaemia 1.05 [1.02, 1.07]; death 1.04 [1.02, 1.06]). We found a number of drug classes to be associated with an increased hazard of one or more of these adverse health outcomes, including antithrombotic/anticoagulant agents, corticosteroids, opioids, antiepileptics, antipsychotics, hypnotics and sedatives, and antidepressants. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy is common among the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes and is strongly patterned by sociodemographic factors. The number of prescribed drugs and the prescription of particular high-risk drug classes are strong markers of an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, including acute complications of diabetes.

Risks of and risk factors for COVID-19 disease in people with diabetes: a cohort study of the total population of Scotland.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to ascertain the cumulative risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes and compare it with that of people without diabetes, and to investigate risk factors for and build a cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 among people with diabetes. METHODS: In this cohort study, we captured the data encompassing the first wave of the pandemic in Scotland, from March 1, 2020, when the first case was identified, to July 31, 2020, when infection rates had dropped sufficiently that shielding measures were officially terminated. The participants were the total population of Scotland, including all people with diabetes who were alive 3 weeks before the start of the pandemic in Scotland (estimated Feb 7, 2020). We ascertained how many people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in this period from the Electronic Communication of Surveillance in Scotland database (on virology), the RAPID database of daily hospitalisations, the Scottish Morbidity Records-01 of hospital discharges, the National Records of Scotland death registrations data, and the Scottish Intensive Care Society and Audit Group database (on critical care). Among people with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, diabetes status was ascertained by linkage to the national diabetes register, Scottish Care Information Diabetes. We compared the cumulative incidence of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with and without diabetes using logistic regression. For people with diabetes, we obtained data on potential risk factors for fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 from the national diabetes register and other linked health administrative databases. We tested the association of these factors with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes, and constructed a prediction model using stepwise regression and 20-fold cross-validation. FINDINGS: Of the total Scottish population on March 1, 2020 (n=5 463 300), the population with diabetes was 319 349 (5·8%), 1082 (0·3%) of whom developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 by July 31, 2020, of whom 972 (89·8%) were aged 60 years or older. In the population without diabetes, 4081 (0·1%) of 5 143 951 people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19. As of July 31, the overall odds ratio (OR) for diabetes, adjusted for age and sex, was 1·395 (95% CI 1·304-1·494; p<0·0001, compared with the risk in those without diabetes. The OR was 2·396 (1·815-3·163; p<0·0001) in type 1 diabetes and 1·369 (1·276-1·468; p<0·0001) in type 2 diabetes. Among people with diabetes, adjusted for age, sex, and diabetes duration and type, those who developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were more likely to be male, live in residential care or a more deprived area, have a COVID-19 risk condition, retinopathy, reduced renal function, or worse glycaemic control, have had a diabetic ketoacidosis or hypoglycaemia hospitalisation in the past 5 years, be on more anti-diabetic and other medication (all p<0·0001), and have been a smoker (p=0·0011). The cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes had a C-statistic of 0·85 (0·83-0·86). INTERPRETATION: Overall risks of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were substantially elevated in those with type 1 and type 2 diabetes compared with the background population. The risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, and therefore the need for special protective measures, varies widely among those with diabetes but can be predicted reasonably well using previous clinical history. FUNDING: None.

Clinical Impact of Residual C-Peptide Secretion in Type 1 Diabetes on Glycemia and Microvascular Complications.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the relationship of residual C-peptide secretion to glycemic outcomes and microvascular complications in type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: C-peptide was measured in an untimed blood sample in the Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource (SDRNT1BIO) cohort of 6,076 people with type 1 diabetes monitored for an average of 5.2 years. RESULTS: In regression models adjusted for age at onset and duration, effect sizes for C-peptide ≥200 vs. <5 pmol/L were as follows: insulin dose at baseline, 27% lower (P = 2 × 10-39); HbA1c during follow-up, 4.9 mmol/mol lower (P = 3 × 10-13); hazard ratio for hospital admission for diabetic ketoacidosis during follow-up, 0.44 (P = 0.0001); odds ratio for incident retinopathy, 0.51 (P = 0.0003). Effects on the risk of serious hypoglycemic episodes were detectable at lower levels of C-peptide, and the form of the relationship was continuous down to the limit of detection (3 pmol/L). In regression models contrasting C-peptide 30 to <200 pmol/L with <5 pmol/L, the odds ratio for self-report of at least one serious hypoglycemic episode in the last year was 0.56 (P = 6 × 10-8), and the hazard ratio for hospital admission for hypoglycemia during follow-up was 0.52 (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: These results in a large representative cohort suggest that even minimal residual C-peptide secretion could have clinical benefit in type 1 diabetes, in contrast to a follow-up study of the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) intensively treated cohort where an effect on hypoglycemia was seen only at C-peptide levels ≥130 pmol/L. This has obvious implications for the design and evaluation of trials of interventions to preserve or restore pancreatic islet function in type 1 diabetes.

Time trends in deaths before age 50 years in people with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide analysis from Scotland 2004-2017.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to examine whether crude mortality and mortality relative to the general population below 50 years of age have improved in recent years in those with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Individuals with type 1 diabetes aged below 50 and at least 1 year old at any time between 2004 and 2017 in Scotland were identified using the national register. Death data were obtained by linkage to Scottish national death registrations. Indirect age standardisation was used to calculate sex-specific standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). Poisson regression was used to test for calendar-time effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: There were 1138 deaths in 251,143 person-years among 27,935 people with type 1 diabetes. There was a significant decline in mortality rate over time (IRR for calendar year 0.983 [95% CI 0.967, 0.998], p = 0.03), but the SMR remained approximately stable at 3.1 and 3.6 in men and 4.09 and 4.16 in women for 2004 and 2017, respectively. Diabetic ketoacidosis or coma (DKAoC) accounted for 22% of deaths and the rate did not decline significantly (IRR 0.975 [95% CI 0.94, 1.011], p = 0.168); 79.3% of DKAoC deaths occurred out of hospital. Circulatory diseases accounted for 27% of deaths and did decline significantly (IRR 0.946 [95% CI 0.914, 0.979], p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Absolute mortality has fallen, but the relative impact of type 1 diabetes on mortality below 50 years has not improved. There is scope to improve prevention of premature circulatory diseases and DKAoC and to develop more effective strategies for enabling people with type 1 diabetes to avoid clinically significant hyper- or hypoglycaemia. Graphical abstract.

Diabetic Neuropathy Is a Substantial Burden in People With Type 1 Diabetes and Is Strongly Associated With Socioeconomic Disadvantage: A Population-Representative Study From Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the contemporaneous prevalence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Scotland and study its cross-sectional association with risk factors and other diabetic complications. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed data from a large representative sample of adults with T1D (N = 5,558). We assessed the presence of symptomatic neuropathy using the dichotomized (≥4) Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument Patient Questionnaire score. Logistic regression models were used to investigate associations between DPN and risk factors, as well as with other complications. RESULTS: The burden of DPN is substantial with 13% prevalence overall. Adjusting for attained age, diabetes duration, and sex, the odds of DPN increased mainly with waist-to-hip ratio, lipids, poor glycemic control (odds ratio 1.51 [95% CI 1.21-1.89] for levels of 75 vs. 53 mmol/mol), ever versus never smoking (1.67 [1.37-2.03]), and worse renal function (1.96 [1.03-3.74] for estimated glomerular filtration rate levels <30 vs. ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2). The odds significantly decreased with higher HDL cholesterol (0.77 [0.66-0.89] per mmol/L). Living in more deprived areas was associated with DPN (2.17 [1.78-2.65]) for more versus less deprived areas adjusted for other risk factors. Finally, individuals with prevalent DPN were much more likely than others to have other diabetes complications. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetic neuropathy remains substantial, particularly affecting those in the most socioeconomically deprived groups. Those with clinically manifest neuropathy also have a higher burden of other complications and elevated levels of modifiable risk factors. These data suggest that there is considerable scope to reduce neuropathy rates and narrow the socioeconomic differential by better risk factor control.

Glycaemic control trends in people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland 2004-2016.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to examine whether glycaemic control has improved in those with type 1 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2016, and whether any trends differed by sociodemographic factors. METHODS: We analysed records from 30,717 people with type 1 diabetes, registered anytime between 2004 and 2016 in the national diabetes database, which contained repeated measures of HbA1c. An additive mixed regression model was used to estimate calendar time and other effects on HbA1c. RESULTS: Overall, median (IQR) HbA1c decreased from 72 (21) mmol/mol [8.7 (4.1)%] in 2004 to 68 (21) mmol/mol (8.4 [4.1]%) in 2016. However, all of the improvement across the period occurred in the latter 4 years: the regression model showed that the only period of significant change in HbA1c was 2012-2016 where there was a fall of 3 (95% CI 1.82, 3.43) mmol/mol. The largest reductions in HbA1c in this period were seen in children, from 69 (16) mmol/mol (8.5 [3.6]%) to 63 (14) mmol/mol (7.9 [3.4]%), and adolescents, from 75 (25) mmol/mol (9.0 [4.4]%) to 70 (23) mmol/mol (8.6 [4.3]%). Socioeconomic status (according to Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation) affected the HbA1c values: from the regression model, the 20% of people living in the most-deprived areas had HbA1c levels on average 8.0 (95% CI 7.4, 8.9) mmol/mol higher than those of the 20% of people living in the least-deprived areas. However this difference did not change significantly over time. From the regression model HbA1c was on average 1.7 (95% CI 1.6, 1.8) mmol/mol higher in women than in men. This sex difference did not narrow over time. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this high-income country, we identified a modest but important improvement in HbA1c since 2012 that was most marked in children and adolescents. These changes coincided with national initiatives to reduce HbA1c including an expansion of pump therapy. However, in most people, overall glycaemic control remains far from target levels and further improvement is badly needed, particularly in those from more-deprived areas.

A Test of Positive Association for Detecting Heterogeneity in Capture for Capture-Recapture Data.

The Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model assumes that all marked animals have equal recapture probabilities at each sampling occasion, but heterogeneity in capture often occurs and should be taken into account to avoid biases in parameter estimates. Although diagnostic tests are generally used to detect trap-dependence or transience and assess the overall fit of the model, heterogeneity in capture is not routinely tested for. In order to detect and identify this phenomenon in a CJS framework, we propose a test of positive association between previous and future encounters using Goodman-Kruskal's gamma. This test is based solely on the raw capture histories and makes no assumption on model structure. The development of the test is motivated by a dataset of Sandwich terns (Thalasseus sandvicensis), and we use the test to formally show that they exhibit heterogeneity in capture. We use simulation to assess the performance of the test in the detection of heterogeneity in capture, compared to existing and corrected diagnostic goodness-of-fit tests, Leslie's test of equal catchability and Carothers' extension of the Leslie test. The test of positive association is easy to use and produces good results, demonstrating high power to detect heterogeneity in capture. We recommend using this new test prior to model fitting as the outcome will guide the model-building process and help draw more accurate biological conclusions. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: Supplementary materials for this article are available at 10.1007/s13253-017-0315-4.

Low-dose naproxen interferes with the antiplatelet effects of aspirin in healthy subjects: recommendations to minimize the functional consequences.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether low-dose naproxen sodium (220 mg twice a day) interferes with aspirin's antiplatelet effect in healthy subjects. METHODS: We performed a crossover, open-label study in 9 healthy volunteers. They received for 6 days 3 different treatments separated by 14 days of washout: 1) naproxen 2 hours before aspirin, 2) aspirin 2 hours before naproxen, and 3) aspirin alone. The primary end point was the assessment of serum thromboxane B(2) (TXB(2)) 24 hours after the administration of naproxen 2 hours before aspirin on day 6 of treatment. In 5 volunteers, the rate of recovery of TXB(2) generation (up to 72 hours after drug discontinuation) was assessed in serum and in platelet-rich plasma stimulated with arachidonic acid (AA) or collagen. RESULTS: Twenty-four hours after the last dosing on day 6 in volunteers receiving aspirin alone or aspirin before naproxen, serum TXB(2) was almost completely inhibited (median [range] 99.1% [97.4-99.4%] and 99.1% [98.0-99.7%], respectively). Naproxen given before aspirin caused a slightly lower inhibition of serum TXB(2) (median [range] 98.0% [90.6-99.4%]) than aspirin alone (P = 0.0007) or aspirin before naproxen (P = 0.0045). All treatments produced a maximal inhibition of AA-induced platelet aggregation. At 24 hours, compared with baseline, collagen-induced platelet aggregation was still inhibited by aspirin alone (P = 0.0003), but not by aspirin given 2 hours before or after naproxen. Compared with administration of aspirin alone, the sequential administration of naproxen and aspirin caused a significant parallel upward shift of the regression lines describing the recovery of platelet TXB(2). CONCLUSION: Sequential administration of 220 mg naproxen twice a day and low-dose aspirin interferes with the irreversible inhibition of platelet cyclooxygenase 1 afforded by aspirin. The interaction was smaller when giving naproxen 2 hours after aspirin. The clinical consequences of these 2 schedules of administration of aspirin with naproxen remain to be studied in randomized clinical trials.