Earthquake supercycles and fault interaction over the past 32 ka in the Lake Ebinur area, Xinjiang, China.

Earthquake prediction and disaster assessment in tectonically active regions require a continuous and complete regional seismic archive, which is commonly difficult to obtain, especially for prehistoric records. Here, high-resolution analysis of the sedimentary sequence from Lake Ebinur in Xinjiang revealed a detailed history of environment evolution since 32 ka ago. Both the Cl content and ultrafine proportion revealed the changing climate: the climate was relatively dry with low lake-water volumes from 32 to 12 ka, while the climate became warmer and wetter since 12 ka. In addition, eight earthquakes were identified by comprehensive analysis of grain size and geochemical element proxies, showing more than two seismic supercycles, with gaps of ∼10.4 ka; these gaps are much larger than those inferred previously (∼4-7 ka). Notably, these seismic events exhibited a pattern of mutual transmittance between the BoA and Jinghenan faults. Such fault interaction can occur in the Lake Ebinur area because it is dominated by weak lithosphere in which strain is easily accumulated and released; the interaction can also be attributed to the unique spatial distribution and immature nature of both faults. Combined with trenching investigations, our high-resolution analysis of lacustrine sediments can reveal a complete history of tectonic activity, which can efficiently serve regional earthquake prediction and disaster assessment.

Distinct lake sedimentary imprints of earthquakes, floods and human activities in the Xiaojiang Fault zone: Towards a quantitative paleoseismograph in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Lake sediments that widely distributed in the active and complicated fault zones have been recently showing great potential for paleoseismic reconstruction. However, flood events and human activities may make the seismic signal unrecognizable. In this study, high-resolution analyses of sedimentary structure, physical and chemical proxies, as well as absolutely radioactive dating were conducted on seven representative sediment cores from the depocenter, nearshore and inlet areas of Yangzong Lake, a typical fault lake in the Xiaojiang Fault zone, southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). These new data were calibrated by historical documents, suggesting that seismically induced mass-transport deposits (MTDs, i.e., turbidites) were massive and/or amalgamated (earthquake doublet), became fining and thickening towards the lake center (without changing lake morphology), and occasionally exhibited soft sediment deformation structures (SSDs, i.e., microfaults). These sediments were relatively poorly sorted and instantaneously deposited from slope failures within the lake. An extremely strong earthquake could cause coseismic subsidence of the lake basin and destruct the local hydrological system, resulting in exceptionally high Mn and total inorganic carbon (TIC) contents in the lake center. In contrast, flood deposits were thinner with horizontal beddings, had higher terrestrial organic matter (higher C/N ratios), and distributed locally in the lake inlet area. Human activities-induced sediments were inversely graded, poorly sorted and gradually deposited, had horizontal beddings and no erosive base, and exhibited high carbon, Pb and Zn contents and low C/N ratios. In addition, macroseismic investigations and statistical results from intensity prediction equations (IPEs) provided a conservative threshold of ∼8 Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) for triggering turbidites, and a ∼ 10 MMI for inducing coseismic subsidence and hydrological destruction. This study was among the first attempts to establish a quantitative lacustrine paleoseismograph in the southeastern TP, and the new results would greatly improve the valid assessment of geohazard risks.

Strongest chemical weathering in response to the coldest period in Guyuan, Ningxia, China, during 14-11 Ma.

Moisture evolution in Central Asia including Northwest China shows less similarity with its surroundings and attracts a growing number of studies. In this study, a well-dated thick lacustrine sequence is chosen in Northwest China and detailed geochemical analysis is conducted during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT, 14-11 Ma). The multi-proxy records (Na2O/Al2O3, CIA, Rb/Sr) revealed that chemical weathering was the strongest during 11.85-11 Ma, the coldest period in 14-11 Ma as evidenced by the global deep-sea oxygen isotope records. Accordingly, we conclude that global climate cooled during MMCT and reached the coldest during 11.85-11 Ma. Thus, the westerly circulation became the strongest during this period, which brought more water vapor to Northwest China and the chemical weathering was significantly improved. On the other hand, the significant decrease in temperature led to the marked weakening of evapotranspiration, and thus the effective humidity was relatively increased. Both aspects contribute greatly to the significant enhancement of chemical weathering in eastern Central Asia. This weathering history of the sediments in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau is of great scientific significance to understanding tectonism and climate change in Asia during MMCT.

Response of tree rings to earthquakes during the past 350 years at Jiuzhaigou in the eastern Tibet.

Trees growing in the tectonically active and climatically sensitive regions, such as the Tibetan Plateau, frequently suffer damage from strong earthquakes and extreme hydro-climatic events. Spruce trees in the Jiuzhaigou National Park exhibited abrupt periods of growth suppression with durations of 3-9 years, which was demonstrated to have recorded five seismic events during the last 350 years after excluding the climatic impacts. The ring-width reductions occurred immediately after earthquakes in the growing seasons of 1748, 1879 and 2017, and one year later in 1961 when the earthquake occurred after the growing season in 1960. In contrast, seismic signals of the 1976 earthquake were moderated in the tree-ring indices by improved climatic conditions in 1975. The intensity prediction equation and isoseismal modelling results suggested that past earthquakes required a minimum intensity threshold of 6.2-6.8 MMI to significantly impact tree growth, thus indicating a minimum magnitude threshold of Mw5.3 for near-field (≤20 km) earthquakes and Mw7.4 for regional (≤115 km) earthquakes. These results would greatly improve the dendroseismological reconstruction of past earthquake characteristics and the valid assessment of future probabilities in the eastern Tibet, and help to identify and eliminate seismic signals in the dendroclimatological studies in the hazardous environments.

Pollen record of climate change during the last deglaciation from the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

The eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a climatically sensitive area affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). A new pollen record from a lacustrine sediment in Mao County shows that the study area was covered mainly by shrubs and herbs during the last deglaciation, indicating open and sparse forest grasslands. Hydrophilous herbs were mainly dominated by Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Myriophyllum, Polygonum and Typha, and they gradually increased from 18.7 to 16.8 ka, suggesting a transition to a more humid climate. This corresponds to climate cooling over the same period. From 16.8 to 14.6 ka, hydrophilous herbs continued to increase, coincident with a general ameliorating trend indicated by δ18O records from East Asia. Between 14.6 and 14.0 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs reached peak in the sequence, corresponding to relatively high δ18O values during this period. From ~14.0 to 12.9 ka, the abundance of hydrophilous herbs decreased significantly. Over the same period, the Greenland ice core shows a decrease in δ18O and low-latitude cave stalagmites in China record an increase in δ18O. This implies that longitudinal temperature gradients increased and drove the southward retreat of the ISM, which in turn drove a continuous decrease in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area. From 12.9 to 11.6 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs decreased to the lowest (8.3%) in the whole sequence, indicating a cold and dry climate in the study area. A positive shift in δ18O records during 11.6-10.6 ka was matched by a significant increase in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area, indicating a warm and humid climate trending. Hence, the ISM has had a significant impact on the climate of the eastern TP since the onset of deglaciation around ~16.8 ka.

A continuous 13.3-ka record of seismogenic dust events in lacustrine sediments in the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

Lacustrine sediments on the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) contain a wealth of information on local and regional tectonic activity. High-resolution grain-size and magnetic susceptibility measurements were conducted on the 23.4-m-thick Lixian lacustrine sedimentary sequence spanning from 19.3 to 6.0 ka, revealing 70 prehistoric seismic events on the eastern TP. The seismic events caused intermittent increases in source materials that endowed the samples of an individual event layer with a gradual fining trend along the C = M line on a C (one percentile)-M (median diameter) plot. Grain-size distribution and end-member modeling imply that dust particles of <20 µm in size were transported primarily by long-term suspension, while medium to coarse silt and sand were transported primarily by short-term suspension, such as aeolian transport constrained by local topography. Provenance analysis based on U-Pb zircon ages indicates that dust particles generated by earthquakes at Lixian had no effect on dust deposition at Xinmocun and Diaolin, and vice versa. These prehistoric seismic events, revealed by variations in grain size and magnetic susceptibility, thus provide invaluable information on the long-term behavior of local seismic activity.

End-member modeling of the grain-size record of Sikouzi fine sediments in Ningxia (China) and implications for temperature control of Neogene evolution of East Asian winter monsoon.

The Late Cenozoic East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) enhancement has been attributed to several factors, such as uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, retreat of the Paratethys Sea, and global cooling related to polar ice volume increment. However, the fundamental forcing factors remain enigmatic due to the absence of long and continuous climate records and sensitive indicators. Here we reanalyzed the published grain-size record of Sikouzi fine sediments in the western Chinese Loess Plateau through end-member (EM) modeling. The results indicate that EM 2 with grain-size peaks between 10-100 µm decreased in content from 20.1 to 17 Ma and stepwise increased from 17 to 0.07 Ma during the following six stages (17-15 Ma, 15-12 Ma, 12-8 Ma, 8-6 Ma, 6-4 Ma and 4-0 Ma). Such varying trends can be successively correlated in seven stages with the integrated benthic δ18O record, implying that global warming weakened the EAWM from 20.1 to 17 Ma and global cooling has stepwise strengthened the EAWM since 17 Ma. Therefore, we conclude that global temperature change played a major role on the evolution of EAWM during the Neogene period. By contrast, Late Cenozoic palaeogeographic reorganization caused by uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and retreat of the Paratethys Sea contributed less to the evolutionary evolution of EAWM. Spectral analysis of the EM 2 data first provided direct evidence of orbitally influenced deposition in the study area and thus the EAWM variations during the Neogene period. The 100-kyr period became weak since ~10 Ma, possibly due to the decrease in sensitivity of a more stable, continental-scale ice sheet in Antarctica to local insolation forcing, deserving further investigation.