Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diagnosis and survival of five cancers in Chile from 2020 to 2030: a simulation-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has strained health system capacity worldwide due to a surge of hospital admissions, while mitigation measures have simultaneously reduced patients' access to health care, affecting the diagnosis and treatment of other diseases such as cancer. We estimated the impact of delayed diagnosis on cancer outcomes in Chile using a novel modelling approach to inform policies and planning to mitigate the forthcoming cancer-related health impacts of the pandemic in Chile. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of five cancers in Chile (breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach) for which reliable data were available, which simulates cancer incidence and progression in a nationally representative virtual population, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities. We calibrated the model to empirical data on monthly detected cases, as well as stage at diagnosis and 5-year net survival. We accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection by month during the pandemic, and projected diagnosed cancer cases and outcomes of stage at diagnosis and survival up to 2030. For comparison, we simulated a no COVID-19 scenario in which the impacts of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection were removed. FINDINGS: Our modelling showed a sharp decrease in the number of diagnosed cancer cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a large projected short-term increase in future diagnosed cases. Due to the projected backlog in diagnosis, we estimated that in 2021 there will be an extra 3198 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1356-5017) diagnosed among the five modelled cancers, an increase of nearly 14% compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, falling to a projected 10% increase in 2022 with 2674 extra cases (1318-4032) diagnosed. As a result of delayed diagnosis, we found a worse stage distribution for detected cancers in 2020-22, which is estimated to lead to 3542 excess cancer deaths (95% UI 2236-4816) in 2022-30, compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, among the five modelled cancers, most of which (3299 deaths, 2151-4431) are projected to occur before 2025. INTERPRETATION: In addition to a large projected surge in diagnosed cancer cases, we found that delays in diagnosis will result in worse cancer stage at presentation, leading to worse survival outcomes. These findings can help to inform surge capacity planning and highlight the importance of ensuring appropriate health system capacity levels to detect and care for the increased cancer cases in the coming years, while maintaining the timeliness and quality of cancer care. Potential delays in treatment and adverse impacts on quality of care, which were not considered in this model, are likely to contribute to even more excess deaths from cancer than projected. FUNDING: Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Academic excellence in Latin America: Social accountability of medical schools.

Context: Social accountability of medical schools has emerged as a standard of excellence in medical education during the last decade. However, the lack of valid and reliable instruments to estimate social accountability has limited the possibility of measuring the impact that medical schools have in society. Our aim was to develop an instrument and validate its use for assessing social accountability in Latin American countries.Methods: We used a three-phase mixed methods research design to develop, validate and estimate social accountability in a diverse convenient sample of 49 medical schools from 16 Latin American countries. We used a qualitative framework approach and a Delphi consensus method to design an instrument with high content validity. Finally, we assessed the psychometric properties of the instrument.Results: The Social Accountability Instrument for Latin America (SAIL) contained 21 items in four domains: mission and quality improvement, public policy, community engagement, and professional integrity. Its reliability index, estimated using Cronbach's alpha, was very high (0.96). Most of the medical schools that had ranked over the 80th percentile on traditional national academic estimates did not reach the 80th percentile using SAIL.Conclusions: There are validity arguments (content and reliability) to support the measurement of social accountability using the SAIL instrument. Its application showed that it provides a complementary dimension to that traditionally obtained when estimating quality in medical schools.

[Trends in mortality from cancer in Chile according to differences in educational level, 2000-2010]. / Tendencia de la mortalidad por cáncer en Chile según diferencias por nivel educacional, 2000-2010.

OBJECTIVE: Characterize the trends in mortality from cancer in Chile according to differences in educational level in the period 2000-2010 in the population over 20 years of age. METHODS: Calculation of specific mortality from cancer, age-adjusted for different educational levels, for the period 2000-2010. The obtained rates were analyzed using a Poisson regression model, calculating the relative inequality index and the slope index of inequality for each year. RESULTS: 232 541 deaths from cancer were reported in the period 2000-2010. The most frequent types were breast, stomach, and gallbladder cancer in women; and stomach, prostate, and lung cancer in men. Age-standardized mortality from cancer was greater in the lower educational levels, except for breast cancer in woman and lung cancer in men. The greatest differences were found in gallbladder cancer in women and stomach cancer in men, with specific mortality rates up to 49 and 63 times higher, respectively, for low educational levels compared to higher ones. Between 2000 and 2010, the differences in mortality by educational level were smaller for all cancers combined in both genders, for breast cancer in women, and for lung and stomach in men. CONCLUSIONS: During the period studied, mortality from cancer in Chile was strongly associated with the educational level of the population. This information should be considered when designing national strategies to reduce specific mortality from cancer in the most vulnerable groups.

A snapshot of cancer in Chile: analytical frameworks for developing a cancer policy.

INTRODUCTION: The South American country Chile now boasts a life expectancy of over 80 years. As a consequence, Chile now faces the increasing social and economic burden of cancer and must implement political policy to deliver equitable cancer care. Hindering the development of a national cancer policy is the lack of comprehensive analysis of cancer infrastructure and economic impact. OBJECTIVES: Evaluate existing cancer policy, the extent of national investigation and the socio-economic impact of cancer to deliver guidelines for the framing of an equitable national cancer policy. METHODS: Burden, research and care-policy systems were assessed by triangulating objective system metrics--epidemiological, economic, etc.--with political and policy analysis. Analysis of the literature and governmental databases was performed. The oncology community was interviewed and surveyed. RESULTS: Chile utilizes 1% of its gross domestic product on cancer care and treatment. We estimate that the economic impact as measured in Disability Adjusted Life Years to be US$ 3.5 billion. Persistent inequalities still occur in cancer distribution and treatment. A high quality cancer research community is expanding, however, insufficient funding is directed towards disproportionally prevalent stomach, lung and gallbladder cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Chile has a rapidly ageing population wherein 40% smoke, 67% are overweight and 18% abuse alcohol, and thus the corresponding burden of cancer will have a negative impact on an affordable health care system. We conclude that the Chilean government must develop a national cancer strategy, which the authors outline herein and believe is essential to permit equitable cancer care for the country.

Tendencia de la mortalidad por cáncer en Chile según diferencias por nivel educacional, 2000-2010 / Trends in mortality from cancer in Chile according to differences in educational level, 2000-2010

Objetivo. Caracterizar la tendencia de la mortalidad por cáncer en Chile según diferencias por nivel educacional en el período 2000-2010 en la población mayor de 20 años. Métodos. Cálculo de las tasas de mortalidad específica por cáncer ajustadas por edad para diferentes niveles educacionales (NE), para el período 2000-2010. Las tasas obtenidas se analizaron con un modelo de regresión de Poisson, calculando el índice de desigualdad relativa (IDR) y el índice de desigualdad de la pendiente (IDP) para cada año. Resultados. Se registraron 232 541 muertes por cáncer en el período 2000-2010. Los tipos de cáncer más frecuentes fueron de mama, estómago y vesícula biliar en mujeres; y estómago, próstata y pulmón en hombres. Las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer estandarizadas por edad fueron mayores en los NE más bajos, excepto para el de mama en mujer y el de pulmón en hombres. Las mayores diferencias se encontraron en el de vesícula biliar en mujeres y el de estómago en hombres, con mayores tasas de mortalidad específica de hasta 49 y 63 veces respectivamente, para NE bajo respecto al NE alto. Entre 2000 y 2010, las diferencias en mortalidad por NE se redujeron para todos los cánceres combinados en ambos géneros, mama en mujeres, y pulmón y estómago en hombres. Conclusiones. Durante el período estudiado, la mortalidad por cáncer en Chile estuvo fuertemente asociada al NE de la población. Esta información debe ser considerada al definir estrategias nacionales para reducir la mortalidad específica por cáncer en los grupos más desprotegidos.

Objective. Characterize the trends in mortality from cancer in Chile according to differences in educational level in the period 2000-2010 in the population over 20 years of age. Methods. Calculation of specific mortality from cancer, age-adjusted for different educational levels, for the period 2000-2010. The obtained rates were analyzed using a Poisson regression model, calculating the relative inequality index and the slope index of inequality for each year. Results. 232 541 deaths from cancer were reported in the period 2000-2010. The most frequent types were breast, stomach, and gallbladder cancer in women; and stomach, prostate, and lung cancer in men. Age-standardized mortality from cancer was greater in the lower educational levels, except for breast cancer in woman and lung cancer in men. The greatest differences were found in gallbladder cancer in women and stomach cancer in men, with specific mortality rates up to 49 and 63 times higher, respectively, for low educational levels compared to higher ones. Between 2000 and 2010, the differences in mortality by educational level were smaller for all cancers combined in both genders, for breast cancer in women, and for lung and stomach in men. Conclusions. During the period studied, mortality from cancer in Chile was strongly associated with the educational level of the population. This information should be considered when designing national strategies to reduce specific mortality from cancer in the most vulnerable groups.

El aporte a la salud pública del Doctor Abraham Horwitz: luces desde la contemporaneidad / A contribuição à saúde pública do Dr Abraham Horwitz: luzes a partir da contemporaneidade / The contribution to public health of Abraham Horwitz: insigths from contemporaneous times

El propósito de este artículo es revisar las ideas centrales del pensamiento del Dr. Abraham Horwitz (1910-2000), quien se dedicó en cuerpo y alma a la salud pública, tanto de Chile como de América Latina y el Caribe. Este trabajo aborda su pensamiento desde una perspectiva contemporánea. Este es justamente nuestro desafío. Aunque vivimos en un mundo diferente al de los años sesenta, con grandes progresos en materia de salud, aún existen enormes brechas entre países y grupos sociales, además de grandes transformaciones sociodemográficas y económicas con alto impacto social.

The purpose of this article is to review the main ideas of doctor Abraham Horwitz’s thinking (1910-2000), who dedicated all his life to public health, both in Chile and Latin America and Caribbean. This paper focuses his thought from a contemporary perspective. This is precisely our challenge. Although we live in a different world from the sixties, with great progress in health, there are still huge gaps between countries and social groups, as well as large demographic and economic transformations with high social impact.

O propósito deste artigo é revisar as ideias centrais do pensamento do Dr. Abraham Horwitz (1910-2000), quem se dedicou corpo e alma à saúde pública, tanto do Chile como da América Latina e do Caribe. Este trabalho aborda o seu pensamento a partir de uma perspectiva contemporânea. Este é justamente o nosso desafio. Embora vivamos num mundo diferente ao dos anos sessenta, com grandes progressos em matéria de saúde, ainda existem enormes diferenças entre países e grupos sociais, além de grandes transformações sociodemográficas e econômicas com alto impacto social.

[23-valent pneumococcal vaccine. Statement of the Consultive Committee of Immunizations on behalf of the Chilean Infectious Diseases Society: February 2010]. / Declaración del Comité Consultivo de Inmunizaciones de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectología acerca de la eficacia de la vacuna anti-neumocóccica 23 valente en el adulto mayor: Febrero 2010.

The article summarizes the scientific evidence related with protection conferred by the 23 valent polysaccharide vaccine against invasive pneumococcal disease, non bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia, and probable pneumococcal pneumonia in the elderly. Eider patients with and without risk factors are considered. The impact of herd immunity conferred by vaccination of children with conjugated pneumococcal vaccine in reduction of pneumonia in adults is discussed. Based on this analysis, the Advisory Committee on Immunizations of the Chilean Infectious Disease Society makes recommendations on the most efficient vaccine strategy for reduction of pneumococcal pneumonia in the elderly.

Declaración del Comité Consultivo de Inmunizaciones de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectología acerca de la eficacia de la vacuna anti-neumocóccica 23 valente en el adulto mayor: Febrero 2010 / 23-Valent Pneumococcal Vaccine: Statement of the Consultive Committee of Immunizations on behalf of the Chilean Infectious Diseases Society: February 2010

The article summarizes the scientific evidence related with protection conferred by the 23 valent polysacchar-die vaccine against invasive pneumococcal disease, non bacteriemic pneumococcal pneumonia, and probable pneumococal pneumonia in the elderly. Eider patients with and without risk factors are considered. The impact of herd immunitty conferred by vaccination of children with conjugated pneumococcal vaccine in reduction of penumonia in adults is discussed. Based on this analysis, the Advisory Committee on Immunizations of the Chilean Infectious Disease Society makes recommendations on the most efficient vaccine strategy for reduction of pneumococcal pneumonia in the elderly.

El artículo resume los hallazgos de la evidencia científica en relación a la protección que confiere la vacuna neumocóccica polisacárida 23 valente contra la enfermedad neumocóccica invasora, las neumonías neumocóccicas no bacteriémicas y las neumonías probablemente de etiología neumocóccica en el adulto mayor, estableciendo una categorización entre adultos mayores con factores de riesgo y sin ellos. Se documenta a la vez, el impacto que ha tenido la vacuna neumocóccica conjugada en la población infantil, en reducir las neumonías en el adulto mayor. Basados en la información disponible, el Comité Consultivo de Inmunizaciones de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectología, realiza recomendaciones sobre cuál sería la mejor forma de prevenir las enfermedades neumocóccicas en el adulto mayor.

Medicina Interna y Salud Pública: Claves para una relación virtuosa / Internal Medicine and Public Health

A special Committee on Internal Medicine and Public Health was established by Sociedad Médica de Santiago (Chilean Society of Internal Medicine) in April 2007 with the duty to write a Consensus Paper on the interaction between both branches of medical profession. The main objective was to find the common grounds on which to construct a positive approach to regain space for Internal Medicine, based on prevalent epidemiológica! features related to adult health issues. The authors describe the reasons to explain the gap between clinical medicine and population health and identify the nature and evolution of chronic diseases as the point of encounter between both. With Chilean health surveys data, they state that chronic diseases explain the high proportion of burden of disease, mortality and disability, and stress that by the year 2025 one in every five inhabitants will be over 65years of age, with ageing as another main problem for the health care sector. Population with multiple risks and multimorbidity is the most important challenge for the Chilean Health Care System. A new model of care is needed to tackle this scenario with new skills regarding psychosocial determinants of health. The leading role of internists and ideally geriatricians, will be crucial in this process and will help the implementation of sound population based interventions. Both individual and community level interventions will help to improve quality of life of Chilean families.

Declaración del Comité Consultivo de Inmunizaciones de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectología respecto a la vacuna anti-virus papiloma humano: septiembre 2008 / Human papillomavirus vaccine: statement of the Consultive Committee of Immunizations on behalf of The Chilean Infectious Diseases Society: September 2008

The article briefly reviews the epidemiology of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and associated diseases in the world and in Chile and the scientific information of the licensed HPV vaccines: Gardasil® and Cervarix®. Considering the available information, the Consultive Committee of Immunizations of the Chilean Society of Infectious Diseases, summarizes its conclusions and makes recommendations for vaccination against HPV in Chile.

El artículo revisa brevemente la epidemiología de las infecciones por virus papiloma humano (VPH) y las enfermedades asociadas, tanto en el mundo como en Chile y la información científica de las vacunas contra VPH licenciadas: Gardasil® y Cervarix®. Considerando la información disponible, el Comité Consultivo de Inmunizaciones de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectología, resume sus conclusiones y hace sus recomendaciones para la vacunación contra VPH en Chile.

[Human papillomavirus vaccine. Statement of the Consultive Committee of Immunizations on behalf of the Chilean Infectious Diseases Society. September 2008]. / Declaración del Comité Consultivo de Inmunizaciones de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectología respecto a la vacuna anti-virus papiloma humano. Septiembre 2008.

The article briefly reviews the epidemiology of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and associated diseases in the world and in Chile and the scientific information of the licensed HPV vaccines: Gardasil and Cervarix. Considering the available information, the Consultive Committee of Immunizations of the Chilean Society of Infectious Diseases, summarizes its conclusions and makes recommendations for vaccination against HPV in Chile.

Prioridades de intervención en alimentación y nutrición en Chile / Food and nutrition intervention priorities in Chile

The demographic and nutritional transition in Chile has been reflected by a high and growing prevalence of obesity and chronic illnesses related to nutrition. In spite of the efforts made, it is not likely that the country will comply with the health objectives proposals for 2010 to reduce obesity and sedentary tendencies. As part of their functions the National Health Food and Nutrition Advisory Council has recently checked and defined the national priorities in this area. In the Council's opinion, the efforts should be oriented to strengthen the nutritional intervention strategy through the vital cycle, to improve the institutional capacity of the country as far as food is concerned, to review and modernized feeding programmes and to develop a strategic alliance with food producing companies, scientific societies, academic groups and consumers. These actions are directed to promote a wider and better offer of healthier food and to regulate publicity. In order to advance in these proposals we need a major investment from public and private resources oriented to promote healthier styles of living, with special emphasis on nutrition and physical activity.

La transición demográfica y nutricional que vive Chile se ha reflejado en una prevalencia alta y creciente de obesidad y enfermedades crónicas vinculadas a la alimentación. A pesar de los esfuerzos realizados es poco probable cumplir con las metas sanitarias propuestas para el 2010 en cuanto a reducir la obesidad y el sedentarismo. Como parte de sus funciones el Consejo Asesor en Nutrición y Alimentación del Ministerio de Salud ha revisado recientemente y definido las prioridades nacionales en este campo. En la opinión del Consejo los esfuerzos debieran orientarse fundamentalmente a fortalecer la estrategia de intervención nutricional a través del ciclo vital, a mejorar la capacidad institucional del país en el ámbito de los alimentos, a revisar y modernizar la gestión de los programas alimentarios y a desarrollar una alianza estratégica con las empresas productoras de alimentos, sociedades científicas, grupos académicos y con los propios consumidores orientada a promover una mayor oferta y consumo de alimentos saludables y a regular la publicidad en este campo. Para avanzar en la meta propuesta se requiere sin duda de una mayor inversión de recursos públicos y privados fundamentalmente orientados a la promoción de estilos de vida saludable, con especial énfasis en alimentación y actividad física.