Stochasticity-induced persistence in coupled social-ecological systems.

Stochasticity is often associated with negative consequences for population dynamics since a population may die out due to random chance during periods when population size is very low (stochastic fade-out). Here we develop a coupled social-ecological model based on stochastic differential equations that includes natural expansion and harvesting of a forest ecosystem, and dynamics of conservation opinions, social norms and social learning in a human population. Our objective was to identify mechanisms that influence long-term persistence of the forest ecosystem in the presence of noise. We found that most of the model parameters had a significant influence on the time to extinction of the forest ecosystem. Increasing the social learning rate and the net benefits of conservation significantly increased the time to extinction, for instance. Most interestingly, we found a parameter regime where an increase in the amount of system stochasticity caused an increase in the mean time to extinction, instead of causing stochastic fade-out. This effect occurs for a subset of realizations, but the effect is large enough to increase the mean time to extinction across all realizations. Such "stochasticity-induced persistence" occurs when stochastic dynamics in the social system generates benefits in the forest system at crucial points in its temporal dynamics. We conclude that studying relatively simple social-ecological models has the benefit of facilitating characterization of dynamical states and thereby enabling us to formulate new hypothesis about mechanisms that could be operating in empirical social-ecological systems.

Mitigating the externality of diseases of poverty through health aid.

Externality exists in healthcare when an individual benefits from others being healthy as it reduces the probability of getting sick from illness. Healthy workers are considered to be the more productive labourers leading to a country's positive economic growth over time. Several research studies have modelled disease transmission and its economic impact on a single country in isolation. We developed a two-country disease-economy model that explores disease transmission and cross-border infection of disease for its impacts. The model includes aspects of a worsening and rapid transmission of disease juxtaposed by positive impacts to the economy from tourism. We found that high friction affects the gross domestic product (GDP) of the lower-income country more than the higher-income country. Health aid from one country to another can substantially help grow the GDP of both countries due to the positive externality of disease reduction. Disease has less impact to both economies if the relative cost of treatment over an alternative (e.g. vaccination) is lower than the baseline value. Providing medical supplies to another country, adopting moderate friction between the countries, and finding treatments with lower costs result in the best scenario to preserve the GDP of both countries.

Automatic cancer tissue detection using multispectral photoacoustic imaging.

PURPOSE: In the case of multispecimen study to locate cancer regions, such as in thyroidectomy and prostatectomy, a significant labor-intensive processing is required at a high cost. Pathology diagnosis is usually done by a pathologist observing tissue-stained glass slide under a microscope. METHOD: Multispectral photoacoustic (MPA) specimen imaging has proven successful in differentiating photoacoustic (PA) signal characteristics between a histopathology-defined cancer region and normal tissue. This is mainly due to its ability to efficiently map oxyhemoglobin and deoxyhemoglobin contents from MPA images and key features for cancer detection. A fully automated deep learning algorithm is purposed, which learns to detect the presence of malignant tissue in freshly excised ex vivo human thyroid and prostate tissue specimens using the three-dimensional MPA dataset. The proposed automated deep learning model consisted of the convolutional neural network architecture, which extracts spatially colocated features, and a softmax function, which detects thyroid and prostate cancer tissue at once. This is one of the first deep learning models, to the best of our knowledge, to detect the presence of cancer in excised thyroid and prostate tissue of humans at once based on PA imaging. RESULT: The area under the curve (AUC) was used as a metric to evaluate the predictive performance of the classifier. The proposed model detected the cancer tissue with the AUC of 0.96, which is very promising. CONCLUSION: This model is an improvement over the previous work using machine learning and deep learning algorithms. This model may have immediate application in cancer screening of the numerous sliced specimens that result from thyroidectomy and prostatectomy. Since the instrument that was used to capture the ex vivo PA images is now being developed for in vivo use, this model may also prove to be a starting point for in vivo PA image analysis for cancer diagnosis.

Emergence and spread of drug resistant influenza: A two-population game theoretical model.

BACKGROUND: The potential for emergence of antiviral drug resistance during influenza pandemics has raised great concern for public health. Widespread use of antiviral drugs is a significant factor in producing resistant strains. Recent studies show that some influenza viruses may gain antiviral drug resistance without a fitness penalty. This creates the possibility of strategic interaction between populations considering antiviral drug use strategies. METHODS: To explain why, we develop and analyze a classical 2-player game theoretical model where each player chooses from a range of possible rates of antiviral drug use, and payoffs are derived as a function of final size of epidemic with the regular and mutant strain. Final sizes are derived from a stochastic compartmental epidemic model that captures transmission within each population and between populations, and the stochastic emergence of antiviral drug resistance. High treatment levels not only increase the spread of the resistant strain in the subject population but also affect the other population by increasing the density of the resistant strain infectious individuals due to travel between populations. RESULTS: We found two Nash equilibria where both populations treat at a high rate, or both treat at a low rate. Hence the game theoretical analysis predicts that populations will not choose different treatment strategies than other populations, under these assumptions. The populations may choose to cooperate by maintaining a low treatment rate that does not increase the incidence of mutant strain infections or cause case importations to the other population. Alternatively, if one population is treating at a high rate, this will generate a large number of mutant infections that spread to the other population, in turn incentivizing that population to also treat at a high rate. The prediction of two separate Nash equilibria is robust to the mutation rate and the effectiveness of the drug in preventing transmission, but it is sensitive to the volume of travel between the two populations. CONCLUSIONS: Model-based evaluations of antiviral influenza drug use during a pandemic usually consider populations in isolation from one another, but our results show that strategic interactions could strongly influence a population's choice of antiviral drug use policy. Furthermore, the high treatment rate Nash equilibrium has the potential to become socially suboptimal (i.e. non-Pareto optimal) under model assumptions that might apply under other conditions. Because of the need for players to coordinate their actions, we conclude that communication and coordination between jurisdictions during influenza pandemics is a priority, especially for influenza strains that do not evolve a fitness penalty under antiviral drug resistance.