Potential Impact of Slowing Disease Progression in Early Symptomatic Alzheimer's Disease on Patient Quality of Life, Caregiver Time, and Total Societal Costs: Estimates Based on Findings from GERAS-US Study.

Background: Impact of Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression on patient health-related quality of life (HRQoL), caregiver time, and societal costs is not well characterized in early AD. Objective: To assess the association of change in cognition with HRQoL, caregiver time, and societal costs over 36 months, and estimate the impact of slowing disease progression on these outcomes. Methods: This post-hoc analysis included patients with amyloid-positive mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and mild AD dementia (MILD AD) from the 36-month GERAS-US study. Disease progression was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination score. Change in outcomes associated with slowing AD progression was estimated using coefficients from generalized linear models. Results: At baseline, 300 patients had MCI and 317 had MILD AD. Observed natural progression over 36 months was associated with: 5.1 point decline in the Bath Assessment of Subjective Quality of Life in Dementia (BASQID) score (for HRQoL), increase in 1,050 hours of total caregiver time, and $8,504 total societal costs for MCI; 6.6 point decline in the BASQID score, increase in 1,929 hours of total caregiver time, and $12,795 total societal costs for MILD AD per person. Slowing AD progression by 30% could result in per person savings in HRQoL decline, total caregiver time, and total societal costs: for MCI: 1.5 points, 315 hours, and $2,638; for MILD AD: 2.0 points, 579 hours, and $3,974. Conclusions: Slowing AD progression over 36 months could slow decline in HRQoL and save caregiver time and societal cost in patients with MCI and MILD AD.

Incidence of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease in patients with multiple sclerosis initiating disease-modifying therapies: Retrospective cohort study using a frequentist model averaging statistical framework.

Researchers are increasingly using insights derived from large-scale, electronic healthcare data to inform drug development and provide human validation of novel treatment pathways and aid in drug repurposing/repositioning. The objective of this study was to determine whether treatment of patients with multiple sclerosis with dimethyl fumarate, an activator of the nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) pathway, results in a change in incidence of type 2 diabetes and its complications. This retrospective cohort study used administrative claims data to derive four cohorts of adults with multiple sclerosis initiating dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate or fingolimod between January 2013 and December 2018. A causal inference frequentist model averaging framework based on machine learning was used to compare the time to first occurrence of a composite endpoint of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease or chronic kidney disease, as well as each individual outcome, across the four treatment cohorts. There was a statistically significantly lower risk of incidence for dimethyl fumarate versus teriflunomide for the composite endpoint (restricted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 0.70 [0.55, 0.90]) and type 2 diabetes (0.65 [0.49, 0.98]), myocardial infarction (0.59 [0.35, 0.97]) and chronic kidney disease (0.52 [0.28, 0.86]). No differences for other individual outcomes or for dimethyl fumarate versus the other two cohorts were observed. This study effectively demonstrated the use of an innovative statistical methodology to test a clinical hypothesis using real-world data to perform early target validation for drug discovery. Although there was a trend among patients treated with dimethyl fumarate towards a decreased incidence of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease relative to other disease-modifying therapies-which was statistically significant for the comparison with teriflunomide-this study did not definitively support the hypothesis that Nrf2 activation provided additional metabolic disease benefit in patients with multiple sclerosis.

Reweighting estimators to extend the external validity of clinical trials: methodological considerations.

Methods to extend the strong internal validity of randomized controlled trials to reliably estimate treatment effects in target populations are gaining attention. This paper enumerates steps recommended for undertaking such extended inference, discusses currently viable choices for each one, and provides recommendations. We demonstrate a complete extended inference from a clinical trial studying a pharmaceutical treatment for Alzheimer's disease (AD) to a realistic target population of European residents diagnosed with AD. This case study highlights approaches to overcoming practical difficulties and demonstrates limitations of reliably extending inference from a trial to a real-world population.

Assessing the Cost-effectiveness of a Hypothetical Disease-modifying Therapy With Limited Duration for the Treatment of Early Symptomatic Alzheimer Disease.

PURPOSE: Clinical trials have produced promising results for disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for Alzheimer's disease (AD); however, the evidence on their potential cost-effectiveness is limited. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical DMT with a limited treatment duration in AD. METHODS: We developed a Markov state-transition model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical DMT plus best supportive care (BSC) versus BSC alone among Americans living with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD or mild AD. AD states included MCI due to AD, mild AD, moderate AD, severe AD, and death. A hypothetical DMT was assumed to confer a 30% reduction in progression from MCI and mild AD. The base case annual drug acquisition cost was assumed to be $56,000. Other medical and indirect costs were obtained from published literature or list prices. Utilities for patients and caregivers were obtained from the published literature and varied by AD state and care setting (community care or long-term care). We considered 3 DMT treatment strategies: (1) treatment administered until patients reached severe AD (continuous strategy), (2) treatment administered for a maximum duration of 18 months or when patients reached severe AD (fixed-duration strategy), and (3) 40% of patients discontinuing treatment at 6 months because of amyloid plaque clearance and the remaining patients continuing treatment until 18 months or until they reached severe AD (test-and-discontinue strategy). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated as the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. FINDINGS: From the health care sector perspective, continuous treatment with a hypothetical DMT versus BSC resulted in an ICER of $612,354 per QALY gained. The ICER decreased to $157,288 per QALY gained in the fixed-duration strategy, driven by large reductions in treatment costs. With 40% of patients discontinuing treatment at 6 months (test-and-discontinue strategy), the ICER was $125,631 per QALY gained. In sensitivity and scenario analyses, the ICER was the most sensitive to changes in treatment efficacy, treatment cost, and the initial population AD state distribution. From the modified societal perspective, ICERs were 6.3%, 20.4%, and 25.1% lower than those from the health care sector perspective for the continuous, fixed-duration, and test-and-discontinue strategies, respectively. IMPLICATIONS: Under a set of assumptions for annual treatment costs and the magnitude and duration of treatment efficacy, DMTs used for a limited duration may deliver value consistent with accepted US cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Demonstration of Clinical Meaningfulness of the Integrated Alzheimer's Disease Rating Scale (iADRS): Association Between Change in iADRS Scores and Patient and Caregiver Health Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The integrated Alzheimer's Disease Rating Scale (iADRS) is a validated cognitive/functional composite that effectively captures cognitive and functional decline over a broad spectrum of disease. The clinical meaningfulness of change on iADRS can be supported by establishing an association with changes on important health outcome measures. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship between change on the iADRS and changes in health outcomes in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to Alzheimer's disease (AD), or mild or moderate AD dementia using placebo data from four AD clinical trials and data from one AD observational study. METHODS: Analysis of covariate (ANCOVA) models were used to estimate the relationship between 18-month change on the iADRS and changes on health outcome measures (related to cost, quality of life, and caregiver burden). The regression coefficients for the iADRS were used to compute impact of natural disease progression and disease-modifying treatment on health outcomes. Additional ANCOVAs were conducted to understand whether cognition and/or function was the underlying explanation of any association between iADRS and health outcome change. RESULTS: Across datasets and disease stages, a worsening on the iADRS was significantly associated with increased societal costs, caregiver burden (time and distress) and worsening in measures of patient quality of life. CONCLUSION: Decline on the iADRS was associated with worsening in health outcome measures. These findings suggest that the iADRS can be used in clinical trials as a proxy measure of clinically meaningful outcomes of AD progression.

A Review of Interventional Trials in Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes: Challenges and Opportunities.

INTRODUCTION: In recent decades, the dramatic rise of obesity among youth in the US has been accompanied by a rise in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in this population. This alarming trend underscores the importance of conducting trials to evaluate new therapies in children with T2D. METHODS: A targeted review of peer-reviewed literature and trials registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov was conducted in January 2021 to identify pharmaceutical interventional studies in youth with T2D. Information regarding enrollment data, study design elements, subjects' baseline characteristics, and key treatment outcomes was documented. RESULTS: Among the 16 clinical studies included in this review, only five appeared to meet projected enrollment targets in < 4 years. Although three other studies met recruitment targets, two took approximately 5 years to complete and the third took nearly 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Despite legislation requiring evaluation of pharmaceutical treatments in pediatric populations, surprisingly few interventional studies have been conducted in children with T2D. This review highlights that recruitment challenges may be impeding the conduct and completion of interventional studies. Consequently, few pharmaceutical treatments have been proven to be effective and approved for children with T2D. Metformin and liraglutide remain the only non-insulin treatments formally approved in the US for use in this population. More clinical research is needed to support regulatory decision-making as well as treatment decisions for children with T2D in clinical settings. Sponsors and investigators will need to implement strategies for improving trial enrollment as well as work with regulatory agencies to develop novel study designs that may require fewer patients.

A comparison of reweighting estimators of average treatment effects in real world populations.

Regulatory agencies typically evaluate the efficacy and safety of new interventions and grant commercial approval based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Other major healthcare stakeholders, such as insurance companies and health technology assessment agencies, while basing initial access and reimbursement decisions on RCT results, are also keenly interested in whether results observed in idealized trial settings will translate into comparable outcomes in real world settings-that is, into so-called "real world" effectiveness. Unfortunately, evidence of real world effectiveness for new interventions is not available at the time of initial approval. To bridge this gap, statistical methods are available to extend the estimated treatment effect observed in a RCT to a target population. The generalization is done by weighting the subjects who participated in a RCT so that the weighted trial population resembles a target population. We evaluate a variety of alternative estimation and weight construction procedures using both simulations and a real world data example using two clinical trials of an investigational intervention for Alzheimer's disease. Our results suggest an optimal approach to estimation depends on the characteristics of source and target populations, including degree of selection bias and treatment effect heterogeneity.

Prevalence and cardiometabolic correlates of ketohexokinase gene variants among UK Biobank participants.

Essential fructosuria (EF) is a benign, asymptomatic, autosomal recessive condition caused by loss-of-function variants in the ketohexokinase gene and characterized by intermittent appearance of fructose in the urine. Despite a basic understanding of the genetic and molecular basis of EF, relatively little is known about the long-term clinical consequences of ketohexokinase gene variants. We examined the frequency of ketohexokinase variants in the UK Biobank sample and compared the cardiometabolic profiles of groups of individuals with and without these variants alone or in combination. Study cohorts consisted of groups of participants defined based on the presence of one or more of the five ketohexokinase gene variants tested for in the Affymetrix assays used by the UK Biobank. The rs2304681:G>A (p.Val49Ile) variant was present on more than one-third (36.8%) of chromosomes; other variant alleles were rare (<1%). No participants with the compound heterozygous genotype present in subjects exhibiting the EF phenotype in the literature (Gly40Arg/Ala43Thr) were identified. The rs2304681:G>A (p.Val49Ile), rs41288797 (p.Val188Met), and rs114353144 (p.Val264Ile) variants were more common in white versus non-white participants. Otherwise, few statistically or clinically significant differences were observed after adjustment for multiple comparisons. These findings reinforce the current understanding of EF as a rare, benign, autosomal recessive condition.

Validation of an International Classification of Disease, 10th revision coding adaptation for the Charlson Comorbidity Index in United States healthcare claims data.

PURPOSE: An International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) adaptation had not been previously developed and validated for United States (US) healthcare claims data. Many researchers use the Canadian adaption by Quan et al (2005), not validated in US data. We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of a US ICD-10 CCI adaptation in US claims and compare it with the Canadian standard. METHODS: Diverse patient cohorts (rheumatoid arthritis, hip/knee replacement, lumbar spine surgery, acute myocardial infarction [AMI], stroke, pneumonia) in the IBM® MarketScan® Research Databases were linked with the IBM MarketScan Mortality file. Predictive performance was measured using c-statistics for binary outcomes (1-year and postoperative mortality, in-hospital complications) and root mean square prediction error (RMSE) for continuous outcomes (1-year all-cause medical costs, index hospitalization costs, length of stay [LOS]), after adjusting for age and sex. C-statistics were compared by the method of DeLong and colleagues (1988); RMSEs, by resampling. RESULTS: C-statistics were generally high (≥ ~ 0.8) for mortality but lower for in-hospital complications (~0.6-0.7). RMSEs for costs and hospitalization LOS were relatively large and comparable to standard deviations. Results were similar overall between the US and Canadian adaptations, with relative differences typically <1%. CONCLUSIONS: This US-based coding adaptation and a previously published Canadian adaptation resulted in similar predictive ability for all outcomes evaluated but may have different construct validity (not evaluated in our study). We recommend using adaptations specific to the country of data origin based on good research practice.

Reweighting Randomized Controlled Trial Evidence to Better Reflect Real Life - A Case Study of the Innovative Medicines Initiative.

Evidence from randomized controlled trials available for timely health technology assessments of new pharmacological treatments and regulatory decision making may not be generalizable to local patient populations, often resulting in decisions being made under uncertainty. In recent years, several reweighting approaches have been explored to address this important question of generalizability to a target population. We present a case study of the Innovative Medicines Initiative to illustrate the inverse propensity score reweighting methodology, which may allow us to estimate the expected treatment benefit if a clinical trial had been run in a broader real-world target population. We learned that identifying treatment effect modifiers, understanding and managing differences between patient characteristic data sets, and balancing the closeness of trial and target patient populations with effective sample size are key to successfully using this methodology and potentially mitigating some of this uncertainty around local decision making.

The Carboxy-Terminal Region of Flavobacterium johnsoniae SprB Facilitates Its Secretion by the Type IX Secretion System and Propulsion by the Gliding Motility Machinery.

Flavobacterium johnsoniae SprB moves rapidly along the cell surface, resulting in gliding motility. SprB secretion requires the type IX secretion system (T9SS). Proteins secreted by the T9SS typically have conserved C-terminal domains (CTDs) belonging to the type A CTD or type B CTD family. Attachment of 70- to 100-amino-acid type A CTDs to a foreign protein allows its secretion. Type B CTDs are common but have received little attention. Secretion of the foreign protein superfolder green fluorescent protein (sfGFP) fused to regions spanning the SprB type B CTD (sfGFP-CTDSprB) was analyzed. CTDs of 218 amino acids or longer resulted in secretion of sfGFP, whereas a 149-amino-acid region did not. Some sfGFP was secreted in soluble form, whereas the rest was attached on the cell surface. Surface-attached sfGFP was rapidly propelled along the cell, suggesting productive interaction with the motility machinery. This did not result in rapid cell movement, which apparently requires additional regions of SprB. Secretion of sfGFP-CTDSprB required coexpression with sprF, which lies downstream of sprB SprF is similar in sequence to Porphyromonas gingivalis PorP. Most F. johnsoniae genes encoding proteins with type B CTDs lie immediately upstream of porP/sprF-like genes. sfGFP was fused to the type B CTD from one such protein (Fjoh_3952). This resulted in secretion of sfGFP only when it was coexpressed with its cognate PorP/SprF-like protein. These results highlight the need for extended regions of type B CTDs and for coexpression with the appropriate PorP/SprF-like protein for efficient secretion and cell surface localization of cargo proteins.IMPORTANCE The F. johnsoniae gliding motility adhesin SprB is delivered to the cell surface by the type IX secretion system (T9SS) and is rapidly propelled along the cell by the motility machinery. How this 6,497-amino-acid protein interacts with the secretion and motility machines is not known. Fusion of the C-terminal 218 amino acids of SprB to a foreign cargo protein resulted in its secretion, attachment to the cell surface, and rapid movement by the motility machinery. Efficient secretion of SprB required coexpression with the outer membrane protein SprF. Secreted proteins that have sequence similarity to SprB in their C-terminal regions are common in the phylum Bacteroidetes and may have roles in adhesion, motility, and virulence.

Estimating the distribution of a novel clinical biomarker (FGF-23) in the US population using findings from a regional research registry.

Evidence of involvement of novel biomarkers in disease pathogenesis from research cohorts often precedes an understanding of their distributions in broader populations. This study aimed to estimate the distribution of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23), an endocrine hormone that helps to regulate serum phosphate levels, in the overall US population and in important subgroups. We used a predictive model generated using data from the Framingham Health Study to estimate FGF-23 values for adults in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the size of patient subgroups with levels of FGF-23 above selected thresholds. To assess the face validity of our FGF-23 estimates, we examined the relationship between estimated FGF-23 and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality within NHANES using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models and compared it to that observed in Framingham. Estimated FGF-23 values from NHANES were lower (median [interquartile range] 47.4 [35.8, 64.0] vs. 67.0 [54.0, 85.0] RU/mL) than the observed FGF-23 values from the Framingham cohort. Age- and sex-adjusted 10-year all-cause mortality was significantly higher (hazard ratio 2.43 [95% confidence interval: 1.42, 4.16]) for subjects with estimated FGF-23 levels in the highest versus lowest quartile. Estimating the distribution of biomarker values in the general population by applying predictive equations from smaller research cohorts is feasible and can inform drug research decision making.

Untangling Flavobacterium johnsoniae Gliding Motility and Protein Secretion.

Flavobacterium johnsoniae exhibits rapid gliding motility over surfaces. At least 20 genes are involved in this process. Seven of these, gldK, gldL, gldM, gldN, sprA, sprE, and sprT, encode proteins of the type IX protein secretion system (T9SS). The T9SS is required for surface localization of the motility adhesins SprB and RemA, and for secretion of the soluble chitinase ChiA. Here, we demonstrate that the gliding motility proteins GldA, GldB, GldD, GldF, GldH, GldI, and GldJ are also essential for secretion. Cells with mutations in the genes encoding any of these seven proteins had normal levels of gldK mRNA but dramatically reduced levels of the GldK protein, which may explain the secretion defects of the motility mutants. GldJ is necessary for stable accumulation of GldK, and each mutant lacked the GldJ protein. F. johnsoniae cells that produced truncated GldJ, lacking eight to 13 amino acids from the C terminus, accumulated GldK but were deficient in gliding motility. SprB was secreted by these cells but was not propelled along their surfaces. This C-terminal region of GldJ is thus required for gliding motility but not for secretion. The identification of mutants that are defective for motility but competent for secretion begins to untangle the F. johnsoniae gliding motility machinery from the T9SS.IMPORTANCE Many members of the phylum Bacteroidetes secrete proteins using T9SSs. T9SSs appear to be confined to members of this phylum. Many of these bacteria also glide rapidly over surfaces using a motility machine that is also confined to the Bacteroidetes and appears to be intertwined with the T9SS. This study identifies F. johnsoniae proteins that are required for both T9SS function and gliding motility. It also provides an explanation for the link between secretion and gliding and identifies mutants with defects in motility but not secretion.

Characteristics and Medication Use of Psoriasis Patients Who May or May Not Qualify for Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials impose exclusion criteria that may limit the generalizability of results. OBJECTIVES: To (a) determine the percentage of real-world patients who would qualify for psoriasis randomized controlled trials; (b) ascertain differences between moderate-to-severe psoriasis patients who would be eligible, ineligible, or potentially eligible for clinical trials; and (c) compare their biologic treatment patterns. METHODS: Moderate-to-severe psoriasis patients were identified from the U.S. Department of Defense health care database from January 1, 2008, to October 31, 2013. Eligibility classification for psoriasis trials was based on common trial exclusion criteria involving medical conditions and recent treatment history. Patient characteristics and treatment patterns of 4 biologics (adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, and ustekinumab) were compared between groups. Adherence was measured by medication possession ratio and persistence as continuous time on drug with ≤ 90-day gap between supply times. RESULTS: Among 16,284 qualifying psoriasis patients, 4,677 (28.7%) were medically ineligible, and 8,466 (52.0%) had ineligibility-related treatments that could be stopped prior to trial entry; the latter patients were considered potentially eligible for psoriasis trials. Common reasons for medical ineligibility included malignancies and hematologic disorders; treatment ineligibilities included use of topical corticosteroids and phototherapy. Medically ineligible patients were older and had more comorbidities, while potentially eligible patients were younger and healthier than trial-eligible patients. Most treatment patterns were similar across groups, except that, compared with the trial-eligible group, medically ineligible patients had greater adherence to infliximab and potentially trial-eligible patients had greater adherence and persistence to adalimumab. CONCLUSIONS: This large real-world study found that patients who may be ineligible for psoriasis trials differ in important respects (e.g., comorbidities, prior treatments) from their trial-eligible counterparts. Regardless of their differences at baseline, adherence, persistence, and switching of biologic medications are largely similar, with few differences noted among groups. DISCLOSURES: Financial support for this study was provided by Lilly USA. Wu has received research funding from AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Coherus Biosciences, Dermira, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Sandoz, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, and he is a consultant for AbbVie, Amgen, Celgene, Dermira, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Regeneron, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries. Malatestinic, Goldblum, Solotkin, Lin, Johnston, and Araujo are employees and/or stock owners of Lilly. Nordstrom, Kistler, and Fraeman are employees of Evidera, which received funding from Lilly to conduct this study. LCDR Hawley is a military service member. This work was prepared as part of her official duties. Title 17 U.S.C. 105 provides that "copyright protection under this title is not available for any work of the United States Government." Title 17 U.S.C. 101 defines a U.S. government work as a work prepared by a military service member or employee of the U.S. government as part of that person's official duties. Research data were derived from an approved Naval Medical Center, Portsmouth, Virginia, institutional review board protocol. The views expressed in this work are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Navy, Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. Study concept and design were contributed by Malatestinic and Araujo, along with the other authors. Nordstrom, Kistler, Fraeman, and Sicignano collected the data, and data interpretation was performed by Wu, Lin, and Hawley, along with Malatestinic, Nordstrom, Solotkin, and Araujo. The manuscript was written by Johnston, Malatestinic, Kistler, Wu, and Araujo, along with Nordstrom, Goldblum, Solotkin, Hawley, and Sicignano, and revised by Goldblum, Solotkin, Malatestinic, and Araujo, along with Nordstrom, Wu, Fraeman, Johnston, Hawley, and Sicignano.

Preference for pharmaceutical formulation and treatment process attributes.

PURPOSE: Pharmaceutical formulation and treatment process attributes, such as dose frequency and route of administration, can have an impact on quality of life, treatment adherence, and disease outcomes. The aim of this literature review was to examine studies on preferences for pharmaceutical treatment process attributes, focusing on research in diabetes, oncology, osteoporosis, and autoimmune disorders. METHODS: The literature search focused on identifying studies reporting preferences for attributes of the pharmaceutical treatment process. Studies were required to use formal quantitative preference assessment methods, such as utility valuation, conjoint analysis, or contingent valuation. Searches were conducted using Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Health Economic Evaluation Database, and National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (January 1993-October 2013). RESULTS: A total of 42 studies met inclusion criteria: 19 diabetes, nine oncology, five osteoporosis, and nine autoimmune. Across these conditions, treatments associated with shorter treatment duration, less frequent administration, greater flexibility, and less invasive routes of administration were preferred over more burdensome or complex treatments. While efficacy and safety often had greater relative importance than treatment process, treatment process also had a quantifiable impact on preference. In some instances, particularly in diabetes and autoimmune disorders, treatment process attributes had greater relative importance than some or all efficacy and safety attributes. Some studies suggested that relative importance of treatment process depends on disease (eg, acute vs chronic) and patient (eg, injection experience) characteristics. CONCLUSION: Despite heterogeneity in study methods and design, some general patterns of preference clearly emerged. Overall, the results of this review suggest that treatment process has a quantifiable impact on preference and willingness to pay for treatment, even in many situations where safety and efficacy were the primary concerns. Patient preferences for treatment process attributes can inform drug development decisions to better meet the needs of patients and deliver improved outcomes.

Comparative Effectiveness of Carotid Artery Stenting Versus Carotid Endarterectomy Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of carotid artery stenting (CAS) relative to carotid endarterectomy (CEA) among Medicare patients has not been established. We compared effectiveness of CAS versus CEA among Medicare beneficiaries. METHODS AND RESULTS: We linked Medicare data (2000-2009) to the Society for Vascular Surgery's Vascular Registry (2005-2008) and the National Cardiovascular Data Registry's (NCDR) Carotid Artery Revascularization and Endarterectomy Registry (2006-2008/2009). Medicare patients were followed up from procedure date until death, stroke/transient ischemic attack, periprocedural myocardial infarction, or a composite end point for these outcomes. We derived high-dimensional propensity scores using registry and Medicare data to control for patient factors and adjusted for provider factors in a Cox regression model comparing CAS with CEA. Among 5254 Society for Vascular Surgery's Vascular Registry (1999 CAS; 3255 CEA) and 4055 Carotid Artery Revascularization and Endarterectomy Registry (2824 CAS; 1231 CEA) Medicare patients, CAS patients had a higher comorbidity burden and were more likely to be at high surgical risk (Society for Vascular Surgery's Vascular Registry: 96.7% versus 44.5%; Carotid Artery Revascularization and Endarterectomy Registry: 71.3% versus 44.7%). Unadjusted outcome risks were higher for CAS. Mortality risks remained elevated for CAS after adjusting for patient-level factors (hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.46). After further adjustment for provider factors, differences between CAS and CEA were attenuated or no longer present (hazard ratio for mortality, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.37). Performance was comparable across subgroups defined by sex and degree of carotid stenosis, but there was a nonsignificant trend suggesting a higher risk of adverse outcomes in older (>80) and symptomatic patients undergoing CAS. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes after CAS and CEA among Medicare beneficiaries were comparable after adjusting for both patient- and provider-level factors.

The time horizon matters: results of an exploratory study varying the timeframe in time trade-off and standard gamble utility elicitation.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to examine whether the time horizon of time trade-off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) utility assessment influences utility scores and discrimination between health states. METHODS: In two phases, UK general population participants rated three osteoarthritis health states in TTO and SG procedures with two time horizons: (1) 10-year and (2) a time horizon derived from self-reported additional life expectancy (ALE). The two time horizons were compared in terms of mean utilities and discrimination among health states. RESULTS: In Phase 1, the 10-year tasks were completed by 80 participants, 35 of whom also completed utility assessment with the ALE. In Phase 2, all 101 participants completed procedures with both time horizons. Utility scores tended to be lower with the ALE than the 10-year, a difference that was statistically significant for two health states with SG in Phase 1 (P < 0.05), two health states with TTO in Phase 2 (P < 0.01), and one health state with SG in Phase 2 (P < 0.001). In Phase 1, rates of discrimination between mild and moderate osteoarthritis health states were significantly higher with the ALE than the 10-year (TTO: P = 0.03; SG: P = 0.001). This pattern of discrimination was similar in Phase 2. DISCUSSION: Results suggest that the time horizon could influence utility scores and discrimination among health states. When designing utility evaluations, researchers should carefully consider the time horizon so that the value of health states is accurately represented in cost-utility models.

A literature review on the representativeness of randomized controlled trial samples and implications for the external validity of trial results.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are conducted under idealized and rigorously controlled conditions that may compromise their external validity. A literature review was conducted of published English language articles that reported the findings of studies assessing external validity by a comparison of the patient sample included in RCTs reporting on pharmaceutical interventions with patients from everyday clinical practice. The review focused on publications in the fields of cardiology, mental health, and oncology. A range of databases were interrogated (MEDLINE; EMBASE; Science Citation Index; Cochrane Methodology Register). Double-abstract review and data extraction were performed as per protocol specifications. Out of 5,456 de-duplicated abstracts, 52 studies met the inclusion criteria (cardiology, n = 20; mental health, n = 17; oncology, n = 15). Studies either performed an analysis of the baseline characteristics (demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical parameters) of RCT-enrolled patients compared with a real-world population, or assessed the proportion of real-world patients who would have been eligible for RCT inclusion following the application of RCT inclusion/exclusion criteria. Many of the included studies concluded that RCT samples are highly selected and have a lower risk profile than real-world populations, with the frequent exclusion of elderly patients and patients with co-morbidities. Calculation of ineligibility rates in individual studies showed that a high proportion of the general disease population was often excluded from trials. The majority of studies (n = 37 [71.2 %]) explicitly concluded that RCT samples were not broadly representative of real-world patients and that this may limit the external validity of the RCT. Authors made a number of recommendations to improve external validity. Findings from this review indicate that there is a need to improve the external validity of RCTs such that physicians treating patients in real-world settings have the appropriate evidence on which to base their clinical decisions. This goal could be achieved by trial design modification to include a more representative patient sample and by supplementing RCT evidence with data generated from observational studies. In general, a thoughtful approach to clinical evidence generation is required in which the trade-offs between internal and external validity are considered in a holistic and balanced manner.

Relationship Between Physician and Hospital Procedure Volume and Mortality After Carotid Artery Stenting Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials demonstrated the efficacy of carotid artery stenting (CAS) relative to carotid endarterectomy when performed by physicians with demonstrated proficiency. It is unclear how CAS performance may be influenced by the diversity in CAS and non-CAS provider volumes in routine clinical practice. METHODS AND RESULTS: We linked Medicare claims to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' CAS Database (2005-2009). We assessed the association between 30-day mortality and past-year physician (0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-19, ≥20) and hospital (<10, 10-19, 20-39, ≥40) CAS volumes and past-year hospital coronary and peripheral stenting volumes (<200, 200-399, 400-849, ≥850) among beneficiaries at least 66 years of age. Unadjusted 30-day mortality risk was 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-2.0) for 19 724 patients undergoing CAS by 2045 physicians in 729 hospitals. Median past-year CAS volume was 9 (interquartile range, 4-19) for physicians and 23 (interquartile range, 12-41) for hospitals. Compared to physicians performing ≥20 CAS in the past year, lower CAS volumes were associated with higher adjusted risks of 30-day morality (P value for trend < 0.05): 1.4 (95% CI, 0.9-2.3) for 0 past-year CAS, 1.3 (95% CI, 0.9-1.8) for 1 to 4, 1.1 (95% CI, 0.8-1.6) for 5 to 9, and 0.9 (95% CI, 0.7-1.4) for 10 to 19. An inverse relationship between 30-day mortality and past-year CAS hospital volume as well as past-year hospital non-CAS volume, past-year hospital non-CAS volume, and 30-day mortality was also noted. CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicare patients, an inverse relationship exists between physician and hospital CAS volumes and hospital non-CAS stenting volume and 30-day mortality, even after adjusting for all pertinent patient- and hospital-level factors.

Co-prescription trends in a large cohort of subjects predict substantial drug-drug interactions.

Pharmaceutical prescribing and drug-drug interaction data underlie recommendations on drug combinations that should be avoided or closely monitored by prescribers. Because the number of patients taking multiple medications is increasing, a comprehensive view of prescribing patterns in patients is important to better assess real world pharmaceutical response and evaluate the potential for multi-drug interactions. We obtained self-reported prescription data from NHANES surveys between 1999 and 2010, and confirm the previously reported finding of increasing drug use in the elderly. We studied co-prescription drug trends by focusing on the 2009-2010 survey, which contains prescription data on 690 drugs used by 10,537 subjects. We found that medication profiles were unique for individuals aged 65 years or more, with ≥98 unique drug regimens encountered per 100 subjects taking 3 or more medications. When drugs were viewed by therapeutic class, it was found that the most commonly prescribed drugs were not the most commonly co-prescribed drugs for any of the 16 drug classes investigated. We cross-referenced these medication lists with drug interaction data from Drugs.com to evaluate the potential for drug interactions. The number of drug alerts rose proportionally with the number of co-prescribed medications, rising from 3.3 alerts for individuals prescribed 5 medications to 11.7 alerts for individuals prescribed 10 medications. We found 22% of elderly subjects taking both a substrate and inhibitor of a given cytochrome P450 enzyme, and 4% taking multiple inhibitors of the same enzyme simultaneously. By examining drug pairs prescribed in 0.1% of the population or more, we found low agreement between co-prescription rate and co-discussion in the literature. These data show that prescribing trends in treatment could drive a large extent of individual variability in drug response, and that current pairwise approaches to assessing drug-drug interactions may be inadequate for predicting real world outcomes.