Immune Correlates of Protection by mRNA-1273 Immunization against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Nonhuman Primates

Immune correlates of protection can be used as surrogate endpoints for vaccine efficacy. The nonhuman primate (NHP) model of SARS-CoV-2 infection replicates key features of human infection and may be used to define immune correlates of protection following vaccination. Here, NHP received either no vaccine or doses ranging from 0.3 - 100 g of mRNA-1273, a mRNA vaccine encoding the prefusion-stabilized SARS-CoV-2 spike (S-2P) protein encapsulated in a lipid nanoparticle. mRNA-1273 vaccination elicited robust circulating and mucosal antibody responses in a dose-dependent manner. Viral replication was significantly reduced in bronchoalveolar lavages and nasal swabs following SARS-CoV-2 challenge in vaccinated animals and was most strongly correlated with levels of anti-S antibody binding and neutralizing activity. Consistent with antibodies being a correlate of protection, passive transfer of vaccine-induced IgG to naive hamsters was sufficient to mediate protection. Taken together, these data show that mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced humoral immune responses are a mechanistic correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHP. One-Sentence SummarymRNA-1273 vaccine-induced antibody responses are a mechanistic correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHP.

Assessing Durability of Vaccine Effect Following Blinded Crossover in COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trials

BackgroundSeveral candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 disease have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials and some have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. Efficacious vaccines should, at some point, be offered to placebo participants, which will occur before long-term efficacy and safety are known. MethodsFollowing vaccination of the placebo group, we show that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be derived by assuming the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the placebo crossovers. This reconstruction allows estimation of both vaccine durability and potential vaccine-associated enhanced disease. ResultsPost-crossover estimates of vaccine efficacy can provide insights about durability, identify waning efficacy, and identify late enhancement of disease, but are less reliable estimates than those obtained by a standard trial where the placebo cohort is maintained. As vaccine efficacy estimates for post-crossover periods depend on prior vaccine efficacy estimates, longer pre-crossover periods with higher case counts provide better estimates of late vaccine efficacy. Further, open-label crossover may lead to riskier behavior in the immediate crossover period for the unblinded vaccine arm, confounding vaccine efficacy estimates for all post-crossover periods. ConclusionsWe advocate blinded crossover and continued follow-up of trial participants to best assess vaccine durability and potential delayed enhancement of disease. This approach allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain participants on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunological and clinical effectiveness over time.