Association of Latitude and Exposure to Ultraviolet B Radiation With Severity of Multiple Sclerosis: An International Registry Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, UV B radiation (UVB) exposure, and the severity of MS. METHODS: This observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and ≥1 Expanded Disability Status Scale score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 years and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB, and MSSS. RESULTS: The 46,128 patients who contributed 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2 ± 12 years, resident between latitudes 19°35' and 56°16') were included in this study. Latitude showed a nonlinear association with MS severity. In latitudes <40°, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (ß = 0.08, 95% CI 0.04-0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40° (ß = -0.02, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 years (ß = - 0.5, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (ß = - 0.6, 95% CI -0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower lifetime UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (ß = -1.0, 95% CI -1.1 to 0.9). DISCUSSION: In temperate zones, MS severity is associated with latitude. This association is mainly, but not exclusively, driven by UVB exposure contributing to both MS susceptibility and severity.

Longitudinal machine learning modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. METHODS: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. RESULTS: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS.

Psychological aspects of multiple sclerosis.

A significant incidence and prevalence of psychological disorders in multiple sclerosis (MS) has been reported. Their underlying mechanisms and the extent to which they are reactive to psychosocial factors or symptoms of the pathological process itself, remain unclear. Depression is the predominant psychological disturbance with lifetime prevalence around 50% and annual prevalence of 20%. Depression is commoner during relapses, may exacerbate fatigue and cognitive dysfunction and no firm evidence exists of its induction by interferon; instead, treating depression improves adherence to disease-modifying drugs. Anxiety is also frequent, occurs in newly diagnosed patients, and its co-morbidity with depression has been suggested to increase the rate of suicidal ideation. The relationship between stress and MS is an attractive issue because some studies pointed to an association between stressful life-events and MS onset/relapses; however, the evidence supporting this hypothesis is not conclusive so far. Other psychiatric illnesses, as bipolar affective disorder, pathological laughing and crying or psychosis occur less frequently in MS. Therapeutic strategies include psychotherapy, cognitive behavioural therapy, strengthen of coping, and specific medications. The "art" of the MS team in providing the best individualized care is emphasized, aiming to reduce the burden of the disease and improve the patients' quality of life.

Genotypes at the APOE and SCA2 loci do not predict the course of multiple sclerosis in patients of Portuguese origin.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating disease that affects about one in 500 young Europeans. In order to test the previously proposed influence of the APOE and SCA2 loci on susceptibility to MS, we studied these loci in 243 Portuguese patients and 192 healthy controls and both parents of 92 patients. We did not detect any significant difference when APOE and SCA2 allele frequencies of cases and controls were compared, or when we compared cases with different forms of the disease. Disequilibrium of transmission was tested for both loci in the 92 trios, and we did not observe segregation distortion. To test the influence of the APOE epsilon4 and SCA2 22 CAGs alleles on severity of disease, we compared age at onset and progression rate between groups with and without those alleles. We did not observe an association of the epsilon4 or the 22 CAGs alleles with rate of progression in our total patient population; allele epsilon4 was associated with increased rate of progression of MS in a subset of patients with less than 10 years of the disease. However, globally in the Portuguese population, the APOE and SCA2 genes do not seem to be useful in the clinical context as prognostic markers of this disorder.