Optimal risk-based allocation of disease surveillance effort for clustered disease outbreaks.

Designing a disease surveillance program to detect a disease is challenging when animals are organized into herds, in part because disease cases are likely to be clustered. Clustered diseases are often surveilled using two-stage sampling, which allocates tests both among herds and within herds. Finding the optimal allocation of tests is computationally difficult, so some surveillance programs simply seek an approximate solution. We developed a search algorithm to find the optimal allocation of tests by iteratively searching for adjustments to the test allocation that yielded marginal improvements in system sensitivity. We digitally generated 21 herds of various sizes, evenly divided among three regions that differed in relative risk. We then analyzed 29 scenarios that differed in disease and testing characteristics. We also analyzed a Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) surveillance effort for 23 elk game management units of various sizes that were spread across three regions in Arizona, USA. We compared our marginal sensitivity approach to two other strategies for approximating the optimal distribution of tests: allocating the same number of tests to all herds selected for testing, and allocating tests so that all herds selected for testing achieve the same sensitivity. Across analysis scenarios, we found that low prevalence, high relative risk, a small budget, or high overhead costs were best addressed by concentrating tests in large, high-risk herds. When we expect multiple herds to be infected, the optimal allocation of tests depended on how we expected the cases to be distributed. Across the analyzed scenarios, our marginal sensitivity approach was most efficient, with alternative strategies requiring 0-228 % more tests to achieve the same sensitivity. For CWD in Arizona, we found the potential to double system sensitivity, given a population design prevalence of 0.16 %, from 35.8 % to 70.5 %, although social and budgetary considerations would likely constrain changes to the current allocation of tests. The marginal sensitivity approach we developed has the potential to improve disease surveillance, especially when a population includes a limited number of herds that differ in size. An important limitation of our approach is that computer runtimes could become unacceptably long for a population with many herds.

Effect of Canine Parvovirus and Canine Distemper Virus on the Mexican Wolf (Canis lupus baileyi) Population in the USA.

Mexican wolves (Canis lupus baileyi), classified as probably extinct in the wild in Mexico and endangered in the US, were reintroduced into Arizona in 1998. We combined annual serologic testing results from samples collected between 2003 and 2016 from 108 wolves and known survival data from 118 wolves born in the recovery area from 2003 to 2014 to evaluate whether exposure to canine distemper virus (CDV) or canine parvovirus (CPV) was associated with a greater risk of mortality before 2 yr of age. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to estimate the effect of CDV and CPV on the probability of mortality. Annual seroprevalence rates for CDV and CPV ranged from 0% to 62% and from 33% to 100%, respectively (median, 14.2% and 90.3%, respectively). The covariate, age at testing, had a negative effect on mortality, indicating that younger animals had lower survival, whereas sex had little effect on mortality. The best-supported model excluded any effect of CPV or CDV on death before 2 yr old at both the pack and individual level. Although our analysis did not detect an effect of these viruses on mortality before 2 yr old, CDV was later identified as the cause of mortality in two individuals in 2017. Additional information is needed to assess the impact of these diseases on Mexican wolves.

CHLAMYDIA PSITTACI IN FERAL ROSY-FACED LOVEBIRDS ( AGAPORNIS ROSEICOLLIS) AND OTHER BACKYARD BIRDS IN MARICOPA COUNTY, ARIZONA, USA.

In 2013, a mortality event of nonnative, feral Rosy-faced Lovebirds ( Agapornis roseicollis) in residential backyards in Maricopa County, Arizona, US was attributed to infection with Chlamydia psittaci. In June 2014, additional mortality occurred in the same region. Accordingly, in August 2014 we sampled live lovebirds and sympatric bird species visiting backyard bird feeders to determine the prevalence of DNA and the seroprevalence of antibodies to C. psittaci using real-time PCR-based testing and elementary body agglutination, respectively. Chlamydia psittaci DNA was present in conjunctival-choanal or cloacal swabs in 93% (43/46) of lovebirds and 10% (14/142) of sympatric birds. Antibodies to C. psittaci were detected in 76% (31/41) of lovebirds and 7% (7/102) of sympatric birds. Among the sympatric birds, Rock Doves ( Columba livia) had the highest prevalence of C. psittaci DNA (75%; 6/8) and seroprevalence (25%; 2/8). Psittacine circovirus 1 DNA was also identified, using real-time PCR-based testing, from the same swab samples in 69% (11/16) of species sampled, with a prevalence of 80% (37/46) in lovebirds and 27% (38/142) in sympatric species. The presence of either Rosy-faced Lovebirds or Rock Doves at residential bird feeders may be cause for concern for epizootic and zoonotic transmission of C. psittaci in this region.

Mortality of Western Burrowing Owls ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea) Associated with Brodifacoum Exposure.

Western Burrowing Owls ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea) frequently occupy periurban areas, where they may be exposed to pest control agents. This short communication describes necropsy findings and detected brodifacoum rodenticide levels for four Western Burrowing Owls in Lake Havasu City, Arizona, US, 2013-15. Levels detected ranged from 0.077 mg/kg to 0.497 mg/kg. Brodifacoum, one of several second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides recently removed from the general consumer market, is still available for use by licensed pesticide applicators. Despite recent regulatory actions, second-generation anticoagulant pesticides continue to threaten predatory species in periurban areas.

Bald Eagle Nestling Mortality Associated with Argas radiatus and Argas ricei Tick Infestation and Successful Management with Nest Removal in Arizona, USA.

Eight Bald Eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) nestlings heavily infested with larval ticks were found in or under a nest near the confluence of the Verde and Salt rivers in Arizona in 2009-11. The 8-12-wk-old nestlings were slow to respond to stimuli and exhibited generalized muscle weakness or paresis of the pelvic limbs. Numerous cutaneous and subcutaneous hemorrhages were associated with sites of tick attachment. Ticks were identified as Argas radiatus and Argas ricei. Treatment with acaricides and infection with West Nile virus (WNV) may have confounded the clinical presentation in 2009 and 2010. However, WNV-negative birds exhibited similar signs in 2011. One nestling recovered from paresis within 36 h after the removal of all adult and larval ticks (>350) and was released within 3 wk. The signs present in the heavily infested Bald Eagle nestlings resembled signs associated with tick paralysis, a neurotoxin-mediated paralytic syndrome described in mammals, reptiles, and wild birds (though not eagles). Removal of the infested nest and construction of a nest platform in a different tree was necessary to break the cycle of infection. The original nesting pair constructed a new nest on the man-made platform and successfully fledged two Bald Eagles in 2012.

Bighorn sheep pneumonia: sorting out the cause of a polymicrobial disease.

Pneumonia of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) is a dramatic disease of high morbidity and mortality first described more than 80 years ago. The etiology of the disease has been debated since its initial discovery, and at various times lungworms, Mannheimia haemolytica and other Pasteurellaceae, and Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae have been proposed as primary causal agents. A multi-factorial "respiratory disease complex" has also been proposed as confirmation of causation has eluded investigators. In this paper we review the evidence for each of the candidate primary agents with regard to causal criteria including strength of association, temporality, plausibility, experimental evidence, and analogy. While we find some degree of biological plausibility for all agents and strong experimental evidence for M. haemolytica, we demonstrate that of the alternatives considered, M. ovipneumoniae is the best supported by all criteria and is therefore the most parsimonious explanation for the disease. The strong but somewhat controversial experimental evidence implicating disease transmission from domestic sheep is consistent with this finding. Based on epidemiologic and microbiologic data, we propose that healthy bighorn sheep populations are naïve to M. ovipneumoniae, and that its introduction to susceptible bighorn sheep populations results in epizootic polymicrobial bacterial pneumonia often followed by chronic infection in recovered adults. If this hypothesized model is correct, efforts to control this disease by development or application of vectored vaccines to Pasteurellaceae are unlikely to provide significant benefits, whereas efforts to ensure segregation of healthy bighorn sheep populations from M. ovipneumoniae-infected reservoir hosts are crucial to prevention of new disease epizootics. It may also be possible to develop M. ovipneumoniae vaccines or other management strategies that could reduce the impact of this devastating disease in bighorn sheep.

Expansion of an exotic species and concomitant disease outbreaks: pigeon paramyxovirus in free-ranging Eurasian collared doves.

Eurasian collared doves (Streptopelia decaocto) have expanded their range across the United States since their introduction several decades ago. Recent mortality events in Eurasian collared doves in Arizona and Montana, USA, during the winter of 2009-2010 were the result of pigeon paramyxovirus (PPMV), a novel disease agent. The first instance of mortality by this emerging infectious disease in this species occurred in Florida in 2001 with subsequent disease events in 2006 and 2008. Full diagnostic necropsies were performed on carcasses from the three states. PPMV was identified by RT-PCR and virus isolation and was sequenced to the VIb genotype of avian paramyxovirus-1 (APMV). Other APMVs are common in a variety of free-ranging birds, but concern is warranted because of the potential for commingling of this species with native birds, virus evolution, and threats to domestic poultry. Improved surveillance for wildlife mortality events and efforts to prevent introduction of non-native animals could reduce the threat of introducing new pathogens.

Herd-level prevalence of Mycoplasma spp mastitis and characteristics of infected dairy herds in Utah as determined by a statewide survey.

OBJECTIVE: To determine herd-level prevalence of Mycoplasma spp mastitis in Utah dairy herds and characterize farms and management practices for positive herds. DESIGN: Epidemiologic study. SAMPLE POPULATION: Bulk tank milk samples from 222 of 285 (78%) dairy farms in Utah. PROCEDURES: Milk haulers or dairy producers collected 5 milk samples from all bulk tanks at 3- to 4-day intervals for mycoplasmal culture. Owners of all positive herds were offered follow-up visits. RESULTS: Milk samples from 16 of 222 (7%) herds had positive mycoplasmal culture results. Follow-up information was obtained from 14 of 16 herds; 12 provided complete data. Some characteristics of mycoplasma-positive herds included the following: 8 of 14 herds had > 750 lactating cows, 9 of 11 had bulk tank milk somatic cell count of 140,000 to 240,000 cells/mL, 7 of 11 had actual milk production of 9,535 to 11,622 kg (21,000 to 25,600 lb)/305 d, 11 of 12 had cows with clinical mastitis that was nonresponsive to treatment and involved >or= 2 mammary gland quarters, 9 of 12 had cows with clinical mastitis that spread from 1 mammary gland quarter to another, 8 of 12 had cows with droopy ears, 7 of 12 had cows with a head tilt, 7 of 12 used common milking towels, 2 of 12 were closed to replacement cattle for > 1 year, and 2 of 12 purchased bulls only. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Herd-level prevalence of mycoplasma mastitis in Utah was relatively high, compared with other areas of the United States.