SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and implications for population immunity: Evidence from two Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Kenya, February-December 2022.

BACKGROUND: We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin. RESULTS: HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended.

Symptom prevalence and secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in rural Kenyan households: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household contacts of PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in rural Kenya and analysed risk factors for transmission. METHODS: We enrolled incident PCR-confirmed cases and their household members. At baseline, a questionnaire, a blood sample, and naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Household members were followed 4, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 days after the date of the first PCR-positive in the household; naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit and used to define secondary cases. Blood samples were collected every 1-2 weeks. Symptoms were collected in a daily symptom diary. We used binomial regression to estimate secondary attack rates and survival analysis to analyse risk factors for transmission. RESULTS: A total of 119 households with at least one positive household member were enrolled between October 2020 and September 2022, comprising 503 household members; 226 remained in follow-up at day 14 (45%). A total of 43 secondary cases arose within 14 days of identification of the primary case, and 81 household members remained negative. The 7-day secondary attack rate was 4% (95% CI 1%-10%), the 14-day secondary attack rate was 28% (95% CI 17%-40%). Of 38 secondary cases with data, eight reported symptoms (21%, 95% CI 8%-34%). Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at enrolment was not associated with risk of becoming a secondary case. CONCLUSION: Households in our setting experienced a lower 7-day attack rate than a recent meta-analysis indicated as the global average (23%-43% depending on variant), and infection is mostly asymptomatic in our setting.

Population immunity to pneumococcal serotypes in Kilifi, Kenya, before and 6 years after the introduction of PCV10 with a catch-up campaign: an observational study of cross-sectional serosurveys.

BACKGROUND: In Kilifi (Kenya), a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in 2011 in infants (aged <1 year, 3 + 0 schedule) with a catch-up campaign in children aged 1-4 years. We aimed to measure the effect of PCV10 on population immunity. METHODS: In this observational study, repeated cross-sectional serosurveys were conducted in independent random samples of 500 children younger than 15 years every 2 years between 2009 and 2017. During these surveys, blood samples were collected by venesection. Concentrations of anti-capsular IgGs against vaccine serotypes (VTs) 1, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F, and against serotypes 6A and 19A, were assayed by ELISA. We plotted the geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) by birth year to visualise age-specific antibody profiles. In infants, IgG concentrations of 0·35 µg/mL or higher were considered protective. FINDINGS: Of 3673 volunteers approached, 2152 submitted samples for analysis across the five surveys. Vaccine introduction resulted in an increase in the proportion of young children with protective IgG concentrations, compared with before vaccine introduction (from 0-33% of infants with VT-specific levels over the correlate of protection in 2009, to 60-94% of infants in 2011). However, among those vaccinated in infancy, GMCs of all ten VTs had waned rapidly by the age of 1, but rose again later in childhood. GMCs among children aged 10-14 years were consistently high over time (eg, the range of GMCs across survey rounds were between 0·45 µg/mL and 1·00 µg/mL for VT 23F and between 2·00 µg/mL and 3·11 µg/mL for VT 19F). INTERPRETATION: PCV10 in a 3 + 0 schedule elicited protective IgG levels during infancy, when disease risk is high. The high antibody levels in children aged 10-14 years might indicate continued exposure to vaccine serotypes due to residual carriage or to memory responses to cross-reactive antigens. Despite rapid waning of IgG after vaccination, disease incidence among young children in this setting remains low, suggesting that lower thresholds of antibody, or other markers of immunity (eg, memory B cells), may be needed to assess population protection among children who have aged past infancy. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Wellcome Trust.

Anti-Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Immunoglobulin G Antibody Seroprevalence Among Truck Drivers and Assistants in Kenya.

In October 2020, anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin G seroprevalence among truck drivers and their assistants (TDA) in Kenya was 42.3%, higher than among healthcare workers and blood donors. Truck drivers and their assistants transport essential supplies during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, placing them at increased risk of being infected and of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 over a wide geographical area.

Impact of mobile phone delivered reminders and unconditional incentives on measles-containing vaccine timeliness and coverage: a randomised controlled trial in western Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Short message service (SMS) reminders coupled with a small monetary incentive conditioned on prompt vaccination have been shown to improve first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) uptake. We assessed whether SMS reminders and unconditional monetary incentives-more amenable to programmatic implementation-can improve MCV1 uptake in Kenya. METHODS: Caregivers of eligible infants aged 6-8 months were enrolled into an individually randomised controlled trial and assigned to receive either: no intervention (control), two SMS reminders (SMS) sent 3 days, and 1 day before the scheduled MCV1 date, or SMS reminders coupled with a Kenya Shilling (KES) 150 incentive (SMS +150 KES) sent 3 days before the scheduled MCV1 date. Study staff conducted a household follow-up visit at age 12 months to ascertain vaccination status. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate the relative and absolute difference in MCV1 timely coverage (by age 10 months), the primary outcome. RESULTS: Between 6 December 2016 and 31 March 2017, 179 infants were enrolled into each of the three study arms. Follow-up visits were completed between 19 April 2017 and 8 October 2017 for control (n=170), SMS (n=157) and SMS + 150 KES (n=158) children. MCV1 timely coverage was 68% among control arm infants compared with 78% in each intervention arm. This represented a non-statistically significant increase in the SMS arm (adjusted relative risk 1.13; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.30; p=0.070; adjusted risk difference 9.2%; 95% CI: -0.6 to 19.0%; p=0.066), but a statistically significant increase in the SMS + 150 KES arm (1.16; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.32; p=0.035; 10.6%; 95% CI 0.8 to 20.3%; p=0.034). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the effect of SMS reminders coupled with a small unconditional monetary incentive on MCV1 uptake is comparable to that of SMS reminders alone, limiting their utility. Further studies in the absence of unexpected supply-side constraints are needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02904642.

Adjustments for oral fluid quality and collection methods improve prediction of circulating tetanus antitoxin: Approaches for correcting antibody concentrations detected in a non-invasive specimen.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether anti-tetanus toxoid (anti-TT) immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels measured in oral fluid and adjusted for collection difficulties and specimen quality are associated with total IgG and anti-TTIgG in oral fluid and assess if statistical adjustment for them improves prediction of anti-TT IgG in serum. METHODS: 267 children, ages 12 to 15 months, enrolled in the M-SIMU randomized controlled trial participated in this nested cross-sectional analysis. Venous blood and oral fluid (OF) specimens were collected, and OF collection difficulties such as crying or gagging were recorded. OF volume was documented and total IgG was measured in OF specimens and anti-TT IgG was measured in OF and serum by enzyme immunoassay (EIA). Collection difficulties, volume and sociodemographic characteristics were assessed in relation to total IgG and anti-TT IgG in OF via multivariate regression. These models were extended to evaluate the association between anti-TT IgG in OF and in serum. A prediction model was developed to adjust anti-TT IgG in OF estimates as proxy for serum. RESULTS: Blood in the specimen, sores in the mouth and crying were positively associated with total IgG concentration while high oral fluid volume and sucking on the swab were inversely associated. None were significant predictors of anti-TT IgG in OF after adjusting for total IgG (geometric mean [GM] ratio: 1.99; 95% confidence interval: 1.78-2.24) and vaccination history (GM ratio: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.98-3.01). When predicting anti-TT IgG levels in serum with OF, total IgG modified the effect of anti-TT IgG in OF. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-TT IgG in OF is a good proxy for levels in serum, after controlling for total IgG in the specimen and other variables. Post hoc adjustments for OF volume and total IgG concentration are an important consideration when conducting serosurveys with oral fluid.

The need for COVID-19 research in low- and middle-income countries.

In the early months of the pandemic, most reported cases and deaths due to COVID-19 occurred in high-income countries. However, insufficient testing could have led to an underestimation of true infections in many low- and middle-income countries. As confirmed cases increase, the ultimate impact of the pandemic on individuals and communities in low- and middle-income countries is uncertain. We therefore propose research in three broad areas as urgently needed to inform responses in low- and middle-income countries: transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2, the clinical characteristics of the disease, and the impact of pandemic prevention and response measures. Answering these questions will require a multidisciplinary approach led by local investigators and in some cases additional resources. Targeted research activities should be done to help mitigate the potential burden of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries without diverting the limited human resources, funding, or medical supplies from response activities.

Text Message Reminders and Unconditional Monetary Incentives to Improve Measles Vaccination in Western Kenya: Study Protocol for the Mobile and Scalable Innovations for Measles Immunization Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Globally, 21 million children do not receive the measles vaccine each year. With high levels of mobile phone access and ownership, opportunities exist to leverage mobile health technologies to generate demand for immunization. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the Mobile and Scalable Innovations for Measles Immunization trial is to determine if text message (short message service, SMS) reminders, either with or without mobile phone-based incentives, can improve measles immunization coverage and timeliness in rural western Kenya. METHODS: This is a 3-arm, parallel, randomized controlled trial (RCT). Using simple randomization, caregivers in Siaya County, Kenya, will be randomized and evenly allocated to 1 of 3 study arms: (1) control, (2) SMS reminders only, and (3) SMS reminders plus a 150 Kenyan Shilling (KES) incentive. Participants assigned to the SMS group will be sent SMS reminders 3 days before and on the day before the measles immunization visit scheduled for when the child is 9 months of age. Participants in the incentive arm will, in addition to SMS reminders as above, be sent an unconditional 150 KES mobile-money incentive to their mobile phone 3 days before the child becomes 9 months of age. Children will be followed up to the age of 12 months to assess the primary outcome, a measles vaccination by 10 months of age. Log-binomial regressions will be used to calculate relative risks. RESULTS: Enrollment was completed in March 2017. We enrolled 537 caregivers and their infants into the following groups: control (n=179), SMS reminders only (n=179), and SMS reminders plus 150 KES (n=179). Results will be made publicly available in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Few RCTs have examined the effect of text message reminders to improve measles immunization coverage. This is the first study to assess the effect of SMS reminders with and without unconditionally provided mobile-money incentives to improve measles immunization coverage. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02904642; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02904642 (Archived by WebCite® at http://www.webcitation.org/78r7AzD2X). INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/13221.

Safety of Induced Sputum Collection in Children Hospitalized With Severe or Very Severe Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND.: Induced sputum (IS) may provide diagnostic information about the etiology of pneumonia. The safety of this procedure across a heterogeneous population with severe pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries has not been described. METHODS.: IS specimens were obtained as part a 7-country study of the etiology of severe and very severe pneumonia in hospitalized children <5 years of age. Rigorous clinical monitoring was done before, during, and after the procedure to record oxygen requirement, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, consciousness level, and other evidence of clinical deterioration. Criteria for IS contraindications were predefined and serious adverse events (SAEs) were reported to ethics committees and a central safety monitor. RESULTS.: A total of 4653 IS procedures were done among 3802 children. Thirteen SAEs were reported in relation to collection of IS, or 0.34% of children with at least 1 IS specimen collected (95% confidence interval, 0.15%-0.53%). A drop in oxygen saturation that required supplemental oxygen was the most common SAE. One child died after feeding was reinitiated 2 hours after undergoing sputum induction; this death was categorized as "possibly related" to the procedure. CONCLUSIONS.: The overall frequency of SAEs was very low, and the nature of most SAEs was manageable, demonstrating a low-risk safety profile for IS collection even among severely ill children in low-income-country settings. Healthcare providers should monitor oxygen saturation and requirements during and after IS collection, and assess patients prior to reinitiating feeding after the IS procedure, to ensure patient safety.

Mobile phone-delivered reminders and incentives to improve childhood immunisation coverage and timeliness in Kenya (M-SIMU): a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: As mobile phone access continues to expand globally, opportunities exist to leverage these technologies to support demand for immunisation services and improve vaccine coverage. We aimed to assess whether short message service (SMS) reminders and monetary incentives can improve immunisation uptake in Kenya. METHODS: In this cluster-randomised controlled trial, villages were randomly and evenly allocated to four groups: control, SMS only, SMS plus a 75 Kenya Shilling (KES) incentive, and SMS plus 200 KES (85 KES = USD$1). Caregivers were eligible if they had a child younger than 5 weeks who had not yet received a first dose of pentavalent vaccine. Participants in the intervention groups received SMS reminders before scheduled pentavalent and measles immunisation visits. Participants in incentive groups, additionally, received money if their child was timely immunised (immunisation within 2 weeks of the due date). Caregivers and interviewers were not masked. The proportion of fully immunised children (receiving BCG, three doses of polio vaccine, three doses of pentavalent vaccine, and measles vaccine) by 12 months of age constituted the primary outcome and was analysed with log-binomial regression and General Estimating Equations to account for correlation within clusters. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01878435. FINDINGS: Between Oct 14, 2013, and Oct 17, 2014, we enrolled 2018 caregivers and their infants from 152 villages into the following four groups: control (n=489), SMS only (n=476), SMS plus 75 KES (n=562), and SMS plus 200 KES (n=491). Overall, 1375 (86%) of 1600 children who were successfully followed up achieved the primary outcome, full immunisation by 12 months of age (296 [82%] of 360 control participants, 332 [86%] of 388 SMS only participants, 383 [86%] of 446 SMS plus 75 KES participants, and 364 [90%] of 406 SMS plus 200 KES participants). Children in the SMS plus 200 KES group were significantly more likely to achieve full immunisation at 12 months of age (relative risk 1·09, 95% CI 1·02-1·16, p=0·014) than children in the control group. INTERPRETATION: In a setting with high baseline immunisation coverage levels, SMS reminders coupled with incentives significantly improved immunisation coverage and timeliness. Given that global immunisation coverage levels have stagnated around 85%, the use of incentives might be one option to reach the remaining 15%. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Pertussis-Associated Pneumonia in Infants and Children From Low- and Middle-Income Countries Participating in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND: Few data exist describing pertussis epidemiology among infants and children in low- and middle-income countries to guide preventive strategies. METHODS: Children 1-59 months of age hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 African and Asian countries and similarly aged community controls were enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study. They underwent a standardized clinical evaluation and provided nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs and induced sputum (cases only) for Bordetella pertussis polymerase chain reaction. Risk factors and pertussis-associated clinical findings were identified. RESULTS: Bordetella pertussis was detected in 53 of 4200 (1.3%) cases and 11 of 5196 (0.2%) controls. In the age stratum 1-5 months, 40 (2.3% of 1721) cases were positive, all from African sites, as were 8 (0.5% of 1617) controls. Pertussis-positive African cases 1-5 months old, compared to controls, were more often human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) uninfected-exposed (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.2), unvaccinated (aOR, 3.7), underweight (aOR, 6.3), and too young to be immunized (aOR, 16.1) (all P ≤ .05). Compared with pertussis-negative African cases in this age group, pertussis-positive cases were younger, more likely to vomit (aOR, 2.6), to cough ≥14 days (aOR, 6.3), to have leukocyte counts >20 000 cells/µL (aOR, 4.6), and to have lymphocyte counts >10 000 cells/µL (aOR, 7.2) (all P ≤ .05). The case fatality ratio of pertussis-infected pneumonia cases 1-5 months of age was 12.5% (95% confidence interval, 4.2%-26.8%; 5/40); pertussis was identified in 3.7% of 137 in-hospital deaths among African cases in this age group. CONCLUSIONS: In the postneonatal period, pertussis causes a small fraction of hospitalized pneumonia cases and deaths; however, case fatality is substantial. The propensity to infect unvaccinated infants and those at risk for insufficient immunity (too young to be vaccinated, premature, HIV-infected/exposed) suggests that the role for maternal vaccination should be considered along with efforts to reduce exposure to risk factors and to optimize childhood pertussis vaccination coverage.

The Mobile Solutions for Immunization (M-SIMU) Trial: A Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial That Assesses the Impact of Mobile Phone Delivered Reminders and Travel Subsidies to Improve Childhood Immunization Coverage Rates and Timeliness in Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Text message (short message service, SMS) reminders and incentives are two demand-side interventions that have been shown to improve health care-seeking behaviors by targeting participant characteristics such as forgetfulness, lack of knowledge, and transport costs. Applying these interventions to routine pediatric immunizations may improve vaccination coverage and timeliness. OBJECTIVE: The Mobile Solutions for Immunization (M-SIMU) trial aims to determine if text message reminders, either with or without mobile phone-based incentives, sent to infant's parents can improve immunization coverage and timeliness of routine pediatric vaccines in rural western Kenya. METHODS: This is a four-arm, cluster, randomized controlled trial. Villages are randomized to one of four study arms prior to enrollment of participants. The study arms are: (1) no intervention (a general health-related text message will be texted to this group at the time of enrollment), (2) text message reminders only, (3) text message reminders and a 75 Kenyan Shilling (KES) incentive, or (4) text message reminders and a KES200 incentive. Participants assigned to study arms 2-4 will receive two text message reminders; sent 3 days before and one day before the scheduled immunization visit at 6, 10, and 14 weeks for polio and pentavalent (containing diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, and Haemophilus influenza type b antigens) type b antigens) vaccines, and at 9 months for measles vaccine. Participants in incentive arms will, in addition to text message reminders as above, receive mobile phone-based incentives after each timely vaccination, where timely is defined as vaccination within 2 weeks of the scheduled date for each of the four routine expanded program immunization (EPI) vaccination visits. Mother-infant pairs will be followed to 12 months of age where the primary outcome, a fully immunized child, will be ascertained. A fully immunized child is defined as a child receiving vaccines for bacille Calmette-Guerin, three doses of pentavalent and polio, and measles by 12 months of age. General estimating equation (GEE) models that account for clustering will be employed for primary outcome analyses. RESULTS: Enrollment was completed in October 2014. Twelve month follow-up visits to ascertain immunization status from the maternal and child health booklet were completed in February 2016. CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the first studies to examine the effect of text message reminders on immunization coverage and timeliness in a lower income country and is the first study to assess the effect of mobile money-based incentives to improve immunization coverage. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01878435; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01878435 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6hQlwGYJR).