Quality of uncertainty estimates from neural network potential ensembles.

Neural network potentials (NNPs) combine the computational efficiency of classical interatomic potentials with the high accuracy and flexibility of the ab initio methods used to create the training set, but can also result in unphysical predictions when employed outside their training set distribution. Estimating the epistemic uncertainty of a NNP is required in active learning or on-the-fly generation of potentials. Inspired from their use in other machine-learning applications, NNP ensembles have been used for uncertainty prediction in several studies, with the caveat that ensembles do not provide a rigorous Bayesian estimate of the uncertainty. To test whether NNP ensembles provide accurate uncertainty estimates, we train such ensembles in four different case studies and compare the predicted uncertainty with the errors on out-of-distribution validation sets. Our results indicate that NNP ensembles are often overconfident, underestimating the uncertainty of the model, and require to be calibrated for each system and architecture. We also provide evidence that Bayesian NNPs, obtained by sampling the posterior distribution of the model parameters using Monte Carlo techniques, can provide better uncertainty estimates.

AiiDA 1.0, a scalable computational infrastructure for automated reproducible workflows and data provenance.

The ever-growing availability of computing power and the sustained development of advanced computational methods have contributed much to recent scientific progress. These developments present new challenges driven by the sheer amount of calculations and data to manage. Next-generation exascale supercomputers will harden these challenges, such that automated and scalable solutions become crucial. In recent years, we have been developing AiiDA (aiida.net), a robust open-source high-throughput infrastructure addressing the challenges arising from the needs of automated workflow management and data provenance recording. Here, we introduce developments and capabilities required to reach sustained performance, with AiiDA supporting throughputs of tens of thousands processes/hour, while automatically preserving and storing the full data provenance in a relational database making it queryable and traversable, thus enabling high-performance data analytics. AiiDA's workflow language provides advanced automation, error handling features and a flexible plugin model to allow interfacing with external simulation software. The associated plugin registry enables seamless sharing of extensions, empowering a vibrant user community dedicated to making simulations more robust, user-friendly and reproducible.