Atlantic Water warming increases melt below Northeast Greenland's last floating ice tongue.

The 79 North Glacier (79NG) features Greenland's largest floating ice tongue. Even though its extent has not changed significantly in recent years, observations have indicated a major thinning of the ice tongue from below. Both ocean warming and an increase in subglacial discharge from the ice sheet induced by atmospheric warming could increase the basal melt; however, available observations alone cannot tell which of these is the main driver. Here, we employ a global simulation which explicitly resolves the ocean circulation in the cavity with 700 m resolution to disentangle the impact of the ocean and atmosphere. We find that the interannual variability of basal melt below 79NG over the past 50 years is mainly associated with changes in the temperature of the Atlantic Intermediate Water inflow, which can be traced back across the Northeast Greenland continental shelf to the eastern Fram Strait with a lag of 3 years.

Observed interannual changes beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Floating ice shelves are the Achilles' heel of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They limit Antarctica's contribution to global sea level rise, yet they can be rapidly melted from beneath by a warming ocean. At Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, a decline in sea ice formation may increase basal melt rates and accelerate marine ice sheet mass loss within this century. However, the understanding of this tipping-point behavior largely relies on numerical models. Our new multi-annual observations from five hot-water drilled boreholes through Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show that since 2015 there has been an intensification of the density-driven ice shelf cavity-wide circulation in response to reinforced wind-driven sea ice formation in the Ronne polynya. Enhanced southerly winds over Ronne Ice Shelf coincide with westward displacements of the Amundsen Sea Low position, connecting the cavity circulation with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as a new aspect of the atmosphere-ocean-ice shelf system.

The influence of Arctic Fe and Atlantic fixed N on summertime primary production in Fram Strait, North Greenland Sea.

Climate change has led to a ~ 40% reduction in summer Arctic sea-ice cover extent since the 1970s. Resultant increases in light availability may enhance phytoplankton production. Direct evidence for factors currently constraining summertime phytoplankton growth in the Arctic region is however lacking. GEOTRACES cruise GN05 conducted a Fram Strait transect from Svalbard to the NE Greenland Shelf in summer 2016, sampling for bioessential trace metals (Fe, Co, Zn, Mn) and macronutrients (N, Si, P) at ~ 79°N. Five bioassay experiments were conducted to establish phytoplankton responses to additions of Fe, N, Fe + N and volcanic dust. Ambient nutrient concentrations suggested N and Fe were deficient in surface seawater relative to typical phytoplankton requirements. A west-to-east trend in the relative deficiency of N and Fe was apparent, with N becoming more deficient towards Greenland and Fe more deficient towards Svalbard. This aligned with phytoplankton responses in bioassay experiments, which showed greatest chlorophyll-a increases in + N treatment near Greenland and + N + Fe near Svalbard. Collectively these results suggest primary N limitation of phytoplankton growth throughout the study region, with conditions potentially approaching secondary Fe limitation in the eastern Fram Strait. We suggest that the supply of Atlantic-derived N and Arctic-derived Fe exerts a strong control on summertime nutrient stoichiometry and resultant limitation patterns across the Fram Strait region.

Large ice loss variability at Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier, Northeast-Greenland.

Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden is a major outlet glacier in Northeast-Greenland. Although earlier studies showed that the floating part near the grounding line thinned by 30% between 1999 and 2014, the temporal ice loss evolution, its relation to external forcing and the implications for the grounded ice sheet remain largely unclear. By combining observations of surface features, ice thickness and bedrock data, we find that the ice shelf mass balance has been out of equilibrium since 2001, with large variations of the thinning rates on annual/multiannual time scales. Changes in ice flux and surface ablation are too small to produce this variability. An increased ocean heat flux is the most plausible cause of the observed thinning. For sustained environmental conditions, the ice shelf will lose large parts of its area within a few decades and ice modeling shows a significant, but locally restricted thinning upstream of the grounding line in response.

Greater role for Atlantic inflows on sea-ice loss in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic sea-ice loss is a leading indicator of climate change and can be attributed, in large part, to atmospheric forcing. Here, we show that recent ice reductions, weakening of the halocline, and shoaling of the intermediate-depth Atlantic Water layer in the eastern Eurasian Basin have increased winter ventilation in the ocean interior, making this region structurally similar to that of the western Eurasian Basin. The associated enhanced release of oceanic heat has reduced winter sea-ice formation at a rate now comparable to losses from atmospheric thermodynamic forcing, thus explaining the recent reduction in sea-ice cover in the eastern Eurasian Basin. This encroaching "atlantification" of the Eurasian Basin represents an essential step toward a new Arctic climate state, with a substantially greater role for Atlantic inflows.

Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5 degrees N.

The vigor of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is thought to be vulnerable to global warming, but its short-term temporal variability is unknown so changes inferred from sparse observations on the decadal time scale of recent climate change are uncertain. We combine continuous measurements of the MOC (beginning in 2004) using the purposefully designed transatlantic Rapid Climate Change array of moored instruments deployed along 26.5 degrees N, with time series of Gulf Stream transport and surface-layer Ekman transport to quantify its intra-annual variability. The year-long average overturning is 18.7 +/- 5.6 sverdrups (Sv) (range: 4.0 to 34.9 Sv, where 1 Sv = a flow of ocean water of 10(6) cubic meters per second). Interannual changes in the overturning can be monitored with a resolution of 1.5 Sv.

Observed flow compensation associated with the MOC at 26.5 degrees N in the Atlantic.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which provides one-quarter of the global meridional heat transport, is composed of a number of separate flow components. How changes in the strength of each of those components may affect that of the others has been unclear because of a lack of adequate data. We continuously observed the MOC at 26.5 degrees N for 1 year using end-point measurements of density, bottom pressure, and ocean currents; cable measurements across the Straits of Florida; and wind stress. The different transport components largely compensate for each other, thus confirming the validity of our monitoring approach. The MOC varied over the period of observation by +/-5.7 x 10(6) cubic meters per second, with density-inferred and wind-driven transports contributing equally to it. We find evidence for depth-independent compensation for the wind-driven surface flow.