Comparing the effectiveness, safety and tolerability of interventions for depressive symptoms in people with multiple sclerosis: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Depression is more common in people with multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to the general population. While many interventions are available for treating depressive symptoms in people with MS, it is unclear how different intervention modalities compare. This systematic review aimed to compare the reported effectiveness, safety, and tolerability of interventions for treating depressive symptoms in people with MS. METHODS: We systematically searched 7 databases for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of pharmaceutical, psychological, physical, and electromagnetic stimulation interventions which aimed to reduce depressive symptoms amongst adults with MS. Screening, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were completed by at least two independent researchers. We planned to synthesise the data using network meta-analysis, however the high risk of bias of the included trials resulted in synthesis without meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of 1,949 citations, 31 trials (21 psychological, seven physical activity, two pharmaceutical, and one combination) were included, comprising 2,289 participants. Of the 31 eligible trials 24 were at high and six at moderate risk of bias, which precluded meta-analysis. Twenty-six trials reported on efficacy and only 16/31 reported safety and/or tolerability, using inconsistent methods. CONCLUSIONS: The current strength of the evidence for treating depressive symptoms in MS is low, therefore, we are not able to summarise or make comparisons between the treatment modalities. There is an urgent need for high-quality and diverse trials investigating treatment options for depression in people with MS. This can only be achieved if the conduct and reporting of RCTs are improved.

Practitioners support and intention to adopt universal access to self-collection in Australia's National Cervical Screening Program.

OBJECTIVE: Primary care practitioners are crucial to engaging people in Australia's national cervical screening program. From July 2022, practitioners have been able to offer all screen-eligible people the choice to collect their own self-collected sample; an option introduced to increase equity. This study explored how practitioners are intending to incorporate universal access to self-collection into their clinical care. METHODS: Semi-structed interviews with 27 general practitioners, nurses, and practice managers from 10 practices in Victoria, Australia conducted between May and August 2022. Interviews were deductively coded, informed by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. The Diffusion of Innovations theory was used to categorise intention to provide self-collection. RESULTS: Participants were supportive of universal access to self-collection, citing benefits for screen-eligible people and that it overcame the limited adaptability of the previous policy. Most participants' practices (n = 7, 70%) had implemented or had plans to offer the option for self-collection to all. Participants deliberating whether to provide universal access to self-collection held concerns about the correct performance of the self-test and the perceived loss of opportunity to perform a pelvic examination. Limited time to change practice-level processes and competing demands within consultations were anticipated as implementation barriers. CONCLUSIONS: The extent to which self-collection can promote equity within the program will be limited without wide-spread adoption by practitioners. Communication and education that addresses concerns of practitioners, along with targeted implementation support, will be critical to ensuring that self-collection can increase participation and Australia's progression towards elimination of cervical cancer.

Social inequities in early childhood caries in Australia: A population-based study on statewide public dental services data.

BACKGROUND: Social disadvantage leads to dental caries during childhood. AIM: This study investigated whether dental caries occur earlier in children from households experiencing social disadvantage than those not experiencing social disadvantage. DESIGN: The overall risk of, and relative time to, early childhood caries (ECC) according to sociodemographic characteristics in Victoria, Australia, was quantified. Records for 134 463 children in Victoria, Australia, from 2009 to 2019 were analysed. Time ratios (TR) and hazard ratios (HR) of carious lesion(s) in early childhood were estimated. RESULTS: Compared with reference groups, Indigenous children had an adjusted TR of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.82), children from households with languages other than English had an adjusted TR of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.84), and dependants of concession cardholders had an adjusted TR of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.81); therefore, 20%, 17% and 19% reduced times to the first carious lesion, respectively. The estimated HRs were 1.57 (95% CI: 1.49, 1.67) for Indigenous children, 1.46 (95% CI: 1.42, 1.50) for children from households with other languages and 1.57 (CI: 1.53, 1.60) for dependants of concession cardholders. CONCLUSION: Preventive oral health interventions must be targeted early in children from households experiencing social disadvantage to avoid social inequities in ECC.

Associations between pathological features and risk of metachronous colorectal cancer.

Survivors of colorectal cancer (CRC) are at risk of developing another primary colorectal cancer - metachronous CRC. Understanding which pathological features of the first tumour are associated with risk of metachronous CRC might help tailor existing surveillance guidelines. Population-based CRC cases were recruited from the United States, Canada and Australia between 1997 and 2012 and followed prospectively until 2022 by the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Metachronous CRC was defined as a new primary CRC diagnosed at least 1 year after the initial CRC. Those with the genetic cancer predisposition Lynch syndrome or MUTYH mutation carriers were excluded. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations. Of 6085 CRC cases, 138 (2.3%) were diagnosed with a metachronous CRC over a median follow-up time of 12 years (incidence: 2.0 per 1000 person-years). CRC cases with a synchronous CRC were 3.4-fold more likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 1.89-5.98) than those without a synchronous tumour. CRC cases with MMR-deficient tumours had a 72% increased risk of metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.11-2.64) compared to those with MMR-proficient tumours. Compared to cases who had an adenocarcinoma histologic type, those with an undifferentiated histologic type were 77% less likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06-0.94). Existing surveillance guidelines for CRC survivors could be updated to include increased surveillance for those whose first CRC was diagnosed with a synchronous CRC or was MMR-deficient.

Association between protocol change to a higher-protein formula with lower energy targets and nutrient delivery in critically ill patients with COVID-19: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend prioritizing protein provision while avoiding excessive energy delivery to critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but there are no prospective studies evaluating such a targeted approach in this group. We aimed to evaluate the effect of a "higher-protein formula protocol" on protein, energy, and volume delivery when compared with standard nutrition protocol. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with COVID-19 who received mechanical ventilation for >72 h and enteral nutrition. Before October 2021, the standard nutrition protocol for patients was 0.7 ml/kg/h ideal body weight (IBW) of a 63 g/L protein and 1250 kcal/L formula. From October 2021, we implemented a higher-protein formula protocol for patients with COVID-19. The initial prescription was 0.5 ml/kg/h IBW of a 100 g/L protein and 1260 kcal/L formula with greater emphasis on energy targets being directed by indirect calorimetry when possible. Measured outcomes included protein, energy, and volume delivered. RESULTS: There were 114 participants (standard protocol, 48; higher-protein protocol, 66) with 1324 days of nutrition support. The median (95% CI) differences in protein, energy, and volume delivery between targeted and standard protocol periods were 0.08 g/kg/day (-0.02 to 0.18 g/kg/day), -1.71 kcal/kg/day (-3.64 to 0.21 kcal/kg/day) and -1.5 ml/kg/day (-2.9 to -0.1 ml/kg/day). Thirty-three patients (standard protocol, 7; higher-protein protocol, 26) had 44 indirect calorimetry assessments. There was no difference in measured energy expenditure over time (increased by 0.49 kcal/kg/day [-0.89 to 1.88 kcal/kg/day]). CONCLUSION: Implementation of a higher-protein formula protocol to patients with COVID-19 modestly reduced volume administration without impacting protein and energy delivery.

Plasma beta-hydroxy-beta-methylbutyrate availability after enteral administration during critical illness after trauma: An exploratory study.

BACKGROUND: During critical illness skeletal muscle wasting occurs rapidly. Although beta-hydroxy-beta-methylbutyrate (HMB) is a potential treatment to attenuate this process, the plasma appearance and muscle concentration is uncertain. METHODS: This was an exploratory study nested within a blinded, parallel group, randomized clinical trial in which critically ill patients after trauma received enteral HMB (3 g daily) or placebo. Plasma samples were collected at 0, 60, and 180 min after study supplement administration on day 1. Needle biopsies of the vastus lateralis muscle were collected (baseline and day 7 of the HMB treatment intervention period). An external standard curve was used to calculate HMB concentrations in plasma and muscle. RESULTS: Data were available for 16 participants (male n = 12 (75%), median [interquartile range] age 50 [29-58] years) who received placebo and 18 participants (male n = 14 (78%), age 49 [34-55] years) who received HMB. Plasma HMB concentrations were similar at baseline but increased after HMB (T = 60 min: placebo 0.60 [0.44-1.31] µM; intervention 51.65 [22.76-64.72] µM). Paired muscle biopsies were collected from 11 participants (placebo n = 7, HMB n = 4). Muscle HMB concentrations were similar at baseline between groups (2.35 [2.17-2.95]; 2.07 [1.78-2.31] µM). For participants in the intervention group who had the repeat biopsy within 4 h of HMB administration, concentrations were greater (7.2 and 12.3 µM) than those who had the repeat biopsy >4 h after HMB (2.7 and 2.1 µM). CONCLUSION: In this exploratory study, enteral HMB administration increased plasma HMB availability. The small sample size limits interpretation of the muscle HMB findings.

A Randomized Noninferiority Trial to Compare Enteral to Parenteral Phosphate Replacement on Biochemistry, Waste, and Environmental Impact and Healthcare Cost in Critically Ill Patients With Mild to Moderate Hypophosphatemia.

OBJECTIVES: Hypophosphatemia occurs frequently. Enteral, rather than IV, phosphate replacement may reduce fluid replacement, cost, and waste. DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, parallel group, noninferiority clinical trial. SETTING: Single center, 42-bed state trauma, medical and surgical ICUs, from April 20, 2022, to July 1, 2022. PATIENTS: Patients with serum phosphate concentration between 0.3 and 0.75 mmol/L. INTERVENTIONS: We randomized patients to either enteral or IV phosphate replacement using electronic medical record-embedded program. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: Our primary outcome was serum phosphate at 24 hours with a noninferiority margin of 0.2 mmol/L. Secondary outcomes included cost savings and environmental waste reduction and additional IV fluid administered. The modified intention-to-treat cohort comprised 131 patients. Baseline phosphate concentrations were similar between the two groups. At 24 hours, mean ( sd ) serum phosphate concentration were enteral 0.89 mmol/L (0.24 mmol/L) and IV 0.82 mmol/L (0.28 mmol/L). This difference was noninferior at the margin of 0.2 mmol/L (difference, 0.07 mmol/L; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.17 mmol/L). When assigned IV replacement, patients received 408 mL (372 mL) of solvent IV fluid. Compared with IV replacement, the mean cost per patient was ten-fold less with enteral replacement ($3.7 [$4.0] vs. IV: $37.7 [$31.4]; difference = $34.0 [95% CI, $26.3-$41.7]) and weight of waste was less (7.7 g [8.3 g] vs. 217 g [169 g]; difference = 209 g [95% CI, 168-250 g]). C O2 emissions were 60-fold less for comparable phosphate replacement (enteral: 2 g producing 14.2 g and 20 mmol of potassium dihydrogen phosphate producing 843 g of C O2 equivalents). CONCLUSIONS: Enteral phosphate replacement in ICU is noninferior to IV replacement at a margin of 0.2 mmol/L but leads to a substantial reduction in cost and waste.

Comparison of statistical methods used to meta-analyse results from interrupted time series studies: an empirical study.

BACKGROUND: The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a robust design for evaluating public health and policy interventions or exposures when randomisation may be infeasible. Several statistical methods are available for the analysis and meta-analysis of ITS studies. We sought to empirically compare available methods when applied to real-world ITS data. METHODS: We sourced ITS data from published meta-analyses to create an online data repository. Each dataset was re-analysed using two ITS estimation methods. The level- and slope-change effect estimates (and standard errors) were calculated and combined using fixed-effect and four random-effects meta-analysis methods. We examined differences in meta-analytic level- and slope-change estimates, their 95% confidence intervals, p-values, and estimates of heterogeneity across the statistical methods. RESULTS: Of 40 eligible meta-analyses, data from 17 meta-analyses including 282 ITS studies were obtained (predominantly investigating the effects of public health interruptions (88%)) and analysed. We found that on average, the meta-analytic effect estimates, their standard errors and between-study variances were not sensitive to meta-analysis method choice, irrespective of the ITS analysis method. However, across ITS analysis methods, for any given meta-analysis, there could be small to moderate differences in meta-analytic effect estimates, and important differences in the meta-analytic standard errors. Furthermore, the confidence interval widths and p-values for the meta-analytic effect estimates varied depending on the choice of confidence interval method and ITS analysis method. CONCLUSIONS: Our empirical study showed that meta-analysis effect estimates, their standard errors, confidence interval widths and p-values can be affected by statistical method choice. These differences may importantly impact interpretations and conclusions of a meta-analysis and suggest that the statistical methods are not interchangeable in practice.

Sex-steroid hormones and risk of postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: a case-cohort analysis.

PURPOSE: Sex-steroid hormones are associated with postmenopausal breast cancer but potential confounding from other biological pathways is rarely considered. We estimated risk ratios for sex-steroid hormone biomarkers in relation to postmenopausal estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer, while accounting for biomarkers from insulin/insulin-like growth factor-signaling and inflammatory pathways. METHODS: This analysis included 1208 women from a case-cohort study of postmenopausal breast cancer within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Weighted Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator was used to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer, per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone, estrogens, androgens, and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Analyses included sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, and other biomarkers identified as potential confounders. RESULTS: Increased risks of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer were observed per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone (RR: 1.22, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.44), androstenedione (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.45), dehydroepiandrosterone (RR: 1.15, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.34), total testosterone (RR: 1.11, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.29), free testosterone (RR: 1.12, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.28), estrone (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.48), total estradiol (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.39) and free estradiol (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.41). A possible decreased risk was observed for SHBG (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.05). CONCLUSION: Progesterone, estrogens and androgens likely increase postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer risk, whereas SHBG may decrease risk. These findings strengthen the causal evidence surrounding the sex-hormone-driven nature of postmenopausal breast cancer.

The impact of age and parity on the experience of relief and regret in women who have undergone hysterectomy for benign disease: A cross sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of age and parity on the experience on relief and regret following elective hysterectomy for benign disease, and to explore the factors that impact relief and regret. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional survey of a cohort. SETTING: Single-centre tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Australia. POPULATION: Patients who underwent elective hysterectomy for benign indications from 01 January 2008 - 31 July 2015 (inclusive) with age <51 years at time of admission. METHODS: Eligible participants completed a retrospective survey regarding their experience of relief and regret following hysterectomy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Regret was defined as a positive response to "Do you regret the decision to have a hysterectomy?". Relief was defined as responding "agree/strongly agree" to "I feel relieved I had a hysterectomy". RESULTS: 268 of 1285 (21%) eligible participants completed the study questionnaire. Of these, 29 were aged <36 years at the time of hysterectomy. Seven percent (n=18/262) reported regretting having a hysterectomy and 88% (n=230/262) reported experiencing relief. We did not observe associations between age at hysterectomy and regret (aOR 0.93; 95% CI 0.85, 1.03), age at hysterectomy and relief (aOR 1.01; 95% CI 0.93, 1.09), nulliparity and regret (aOR 0.32; 95% CI 0.06, 1.59) or nulliparity and relief (aOR 2.37; 95% CI 0.75, 7.51). Desire for future pregnancy at the time of hysterectomy was more frequently reported in those who experienced regret vs no regret (46.7% vs 12.1%, OR: 6.33; 95% CI: 2.12, 18.90; p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Age and parity are not associated with relief nor regret following elective hysterectomy for benign disease.

Risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer and advanced neoplasia following primary colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identifying risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer (CRC) and metachronous advanced neoplasia could be useful for guiding surveillance. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia. METHODS: Searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials for articles (searching period: 1945 to Feburary, 2021) that reported the results of an association between any factor and metachronous advanced neoplasia or metachronous CRC. There were no restrictions on the publication date or language. Random effects models were fitted to estimate the combined association between the risk factors and metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. The Risk of Bias In Non-Randomised Studies of Interventions tool (ROBINS-I) was used to assess the risk of bias of included studies. RESULTS: In total, 22 observational studies with 625,208 participants were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Of these, 13 studies investigated risk factors for metachronous CRC and 9 for advanced neoplasia. The risks of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia were higher if the first CRC was diagnosed in the presence of a synchronous advanced lesion (pooled risk ratio (RR) from 3 studies: 3.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44-9.05; and pooled RR from 8 studies: 2.77, 95% CI: 2.23-3.43, respectively). The risk of metachronous CRC was lower, but the risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia was higher if the first CRC was distal (compared with proximal) (pooled RR from 3 studies: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.23-0.98; and pooled RR from 2 studies: 2.99, 95% CI: 1.60-5.58 respectively). The risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia increased with age (pooled RR from 3 studies: 1.07 per year of age, 95% CI: 1.03-1.11). There was no evidence that any lifestyle risk factors studied were associated with the risk of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. CONCLUSIONS: The identified risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia might be useful to tailor the existing surveillance guidelines after the first CRC. There were potential limitations due to possible misclassification of the outcome, confounding and risk of bias, and the findings cannot be generalised to high-risk genetic syndrome cases.

Primaquine radical cure in patients with Plasmodium falciparum malaria in areas co-endemic for P falciparum and Plasmodium vivax (PRIMA): a multicentre, open-label, superiority randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In areas co-endemic for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum there is an increased risk of P vivax parasitaemia following P falciparum malaria. Radical cure is currently only recommended for patients presenting with P vivax malaria. Expanding the indication for radical cure to patients presenting with P falciparum malaria could reduce their risk of subsequent P vivax parasitaemia. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, superiority randomised controlled trial in five health clinics in Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Ethiopia. In Bangladesh and Indonesia, patients were excluded if they were younger than 1 year, whereas in Ethiopia patients were excluded if they were younger than 18 years. Patients with uncomplicated P falciparum monoinfection who had fever or a history of fever in the 48 h preceding clinic visit were eligible for enrolment and were required to have a glucose-6-dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity of 70% or greater. Patients received blood schizontocidal treatment (artemether-lumefantrine in Ethiopia and Bangladesh and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in Indonesia) and were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either high-dose short-course oral primaquine (intervention arm; total dose 7 mg/kg over 7 days) or standard care (standard care arm; single dose oral primaquine of 0·25 mg/kg). Random assignment was done by an independent statistician in blocks of eight by use of sealed envelopes. All randomly assigned and eligible patients were included in the primary and safety analyses. The per-protocol analysis excluded those who did not complete treatment or had substantial protocol violations. The primary endpoint was the incidence risk of P vivax parasitaemia on day 63. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03916003. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2019, and March 14, 2022, a total of 500 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned, and 495 eligible patients were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (246 intervention and 249 control). The incidence risk of P vivax parasitaemia at day 63 was 11·0% (95% CI 7·5-15·9) in the standard care arm compared with 2·5% (1·0-5·9) in the intervention arm (hazard ratio 0·20, 95% CI 0·08-0·51; p=0·0009). The effect size differed with blood schizontocidal treatment and site. Routine symptom reporting on day 2 and day 7 were similar between groups. In the first 42 days, there were a total of four primaquine-related adverse events reported in the standard care arm and 26 in the intervention arm; 132 (92%) of all 143 adverse events were mild. There were two serious adverse events in the intervention arm, which were considered unrelated to the study drug. None of the patients developed severe anaemia (defined as haemoglobin <5 g/dL). INTERPRETATION: In patients with a G6PD activity of 70% or greater, high-dose short-course primaquine was safe and relatively well tolerated and reduced the risk of subsequent P vivax parasitaemia within 63 days by five fold. Universal radical cure therefore potentially offers substantial clinical, public health, and operational benefits, but these benefits will vary with endemic setting. FUNDING: Australian Academy of Science Regional Collaborations Program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Health and Medical Research Council.

Sex-steroid hormones and risk of postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: a case-cohort analysis.

Purpose: Sex-steroid hormones are associated with postmenopausal breast cancer but potential confounding from other biological pathways is rarely considered. We estimated risk ratios for sex-steroid hormone biomarkers in relation to postmenopausal estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer, while accounting for biomarkers from insulin/insulin-like growth factor-signaling and inflammatory pathways. Methods: This analysis included 1,208 women from a case-cohort study of postmenopausal breast cancer within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Weighted Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator was used to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer, per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone, estrogens, androgens, and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Analyses included sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, and other biomarkers identified as potential confounders. Results: Increased risks of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer were observed per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.44), androstenedione (RR: 1.20, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.45), dehydroepiandrosterone (RR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.34), total testosterone (RR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.96 to 1.29), free testosterone (RR: 1.12, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.28), estrone (RR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.48), total estradiol (RR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.39) and free estradiol (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.41). A possible decreased risk was observed for SHBG (RR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.66 to 1.05). Conclusion: Progesterone, estrogens and androgens likely increase postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer risk, whereas SHBG may decrease risk. These findings strengthen the causal evidence surrounding the sex hormone-driven nature of postmenopausal breast cancer.

Study protocol for TARGET protein: The effect of augmented administration of enteral protein to critically ill adults on clinical outcomes: A cluster randomised, cross-sectional, double cross-over, clinical trial.

Background: It is unknown whether increasing dietary protein to 1.2-2.0 g/kg/day as recommended in international guidelines compared to current practice improves outcomes in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The TARGET Protein trial will evaluate this. Objective: To describe the study protocol for the TARGET Protein trial. Design setting and participants: TARGET Protein is a cluster randomised, cross-sectional, double cross-over, pragmatic clinical trial undertaken in eight ICUs in Australia and New Zealand. Each ICU will be randomised to use one of two trial enteral formulae for three months before crossing over to the other formula, which is then repeated, with enrolment continuing at each ICU for 12 months. All patients aged ≥16 years in their index ICU admission commencing enteral nutrition will be eligible for inclusion. Eligible patients will receive the trial enteral formula to which their ICU is allocated. The two trial enteral formulae are isocaloric with a difference in protein dose: intervention 100g/1000 ml and comparator 63g/1000 ml. Staggered recruitment commenced in May 2022. Main outcomes measures: The primary outcome is days free of the index hospital and alive at day 90. Secondary outcomes include days free of the index hospital at day 90 in survivors, alive at day 90, duration of invasive ventilation, ICU and hospital length of stay, incidence of tracheostomy insertion, renal replacement therapy, and discharge destination. Conclusion: TARGET Protein aims to determine whether augmented enteral protein delivery reduces days free of the index hospital and alive at day 90. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12621001484831).

Evaluation of statistical methods used to meta-analyse results from interrupted time series studies: A simulation study.

Interrupted time series (ITS) are often meta-analysed to inform public health and policy decisions but examination of the statistical methods for ITS analysis and meta-analysis in this context is limited. We simulated meta-analyses of ITS studies with continuous outcome data, analysed the studies using segmented linear regression with two estimation methods [ordinary least squares (OLS) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML)], and meta-analysed the immediate level- and slope-change effect estimates using fixed-effect and (multiple) random-effects meta-analysis methods. Simulation design parameters included varying series length; magnitude of lag-1 autocorrelation; magnitude of level- and slope-changes; number of included studies; and, effect size heterogeneity. All meta-analysis methods yielded unbiased estimates of the interruption effects. All random effects meta-analysis methods yielded coverage close to the nominal level, irrespective of the ITS analysis method used and other design parameters. However, heterogeneity was frequently overestimated in scenarios where the ITS study standard errors were underestimated, which occurred for short series or when the ITS analysis method did not appropriately account for autocorrelation. The performance of meta-analysis methods depends on the design and analysis of the included ITS studies. Although all random effects methods performed well in terms of coverage, irrespective of the ITS analysis method, we recommend the use of effect estimates calculated from ITS methods that adjust for autocorrelation when possible. Doing so will likely to lead to more accurate estimates of the heterogeneity variance.

The effect of time before diagnosis and treatment on colorectal cancer outcomes: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate existing evidence on the relationship between diagnostic and treatment intervals and outcomes for colorectal cancer. METHODS: Four databases were searched for English language articles assessing the role of time before initial treatment in colorectal cancer on any outcome, including stage and survival. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion and data were synthesised narratively. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed to examine the association between treatment interval and survival. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty papers were included in the systematic review, eight were included in the meta-analysis. Forty-five different intervals were considered in the time from first symptom to treatment. The most common finding was of no association between the length of intervals on any outcome. The dose-response meta-analysis showed a U-shaped association between the treatment interval and overall survival with the nadir at 45 days. CONCLUSION: The review found inconsistent, but mostly a lack of, association between interval length and colorectal cancer outcomes, but study design and quality were heterogeneous. Meta-analysis suggests survival becomes increasingly poorer for those commencing treatment more than 45 days after diagnosis. REGISTRATION: This review was registered, and the protocol is available, in PROSPERO, the international database of systematic reviews, with the registration ID CRD42021255864.

Benefits and harms of breast cancer screening: Cohort study of breast cancer mortality and overdiagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening accurately is important for planning and evaluating screening programs and for enabling women to make informed decisions about participation. However, few cohort studies have attempted to estimate benefit and harm simultaneously. AIMS: We aimed to quantify the impact of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality and overdiagnosis using a cohort of women invited to attend Australia's national screening program, BreastScreen. METHODS: In a cohort of 41,330 women without prior breast cancer diagnosis, screening, or diagnostic procedures invited to attend BreastScreen Western Australia in 1994-1995, we estimated the cumulative risk of breast cancer mortality and breast cancer incidence (invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ) from age 50 to 85 years for attenders and non-attenders. Data were obtained by linking population-based state and national health registries. Breast cancer mortality risks were estimated from a survival analysis that accounted for competing risk of death from other causes. Breast cancer risk for unscreened women was estimated by survival analysis, while accounting for competing causes of death. For screened women, breast cancer risk was the sum of risk of being diagnosed at first screen, estimated using logistic regression, and risk of diagnosis following a negative first screen estimated from a survival analysis. RESULTS: For every 1,000 women 50 years old at first invitation to attend BreastScreen, there were 20 (95% CI 12-30) fewer breast cancer deaths and 25 (95% CI 15-35) more breast cancers diagnosed for women who attended than for non-attendees by age 85. Of the breast cancers diagnosed in screened women, 21% (95% CI 13%-27%) could be attributed to screening. DISCUSSION: The estimated ratio of benefit to harm was consistent with, but slightly less favourable to screening than most other estimates from cohort studies. CONCLUSION: Women who participate in organised screening for breast cancer in Australia have substantially lower breast cancer mortality, while some screen-detected cancers may be overdiagnosed.

Household transmission investigation: Design, reporting and critical appraisal.

Background: Household transmission investigations (HHTIs) contribute timely epidemiologic knowledge in response to emerging pathogens. HHTIs conducted in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 reported variable methodological approaches, producing epidemiological estimates that vary in meaning, precision and accuracy. Because specific tools to assist with the optimal design and critical appraisal of HHTIs are not available, the aggregation and pooling of inferences from HHTIs to inform policy and interventions may be challenging. Methods: In this manuscript, we discuss key aspects of the HHTI design, provide recommendations for the reporting of these studies and propose an appraisal tool that contributes to the optimal design and critical appraisal of HHTIs. Results: The appraisal tool consists of 12 questions that explore 10 aspects of HHTIs and can be answered 'yes', 'no' or 'unclear'. We provide an example of the use of this tool in the context of a systematic review that aimed to quantify the household secondary attack rate from HHTIs. Conclusion: We seek to fill a gap in the epidemiologic literature and contribute to standardised HHTI approaches across settings to achieve richer and more informative datasets.

Beta-hydroxy-beta-methylbutyrate supplementation and functional outcomes in multitrauma patients: A pilot randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Beta-hydroxy-beta-methylbutyrate (HMB) is a nutrition supplement that may attenuate muscle wasting from critical illness. This trial aimed to determine feasibility of administering a blinded nutrition supplement in the intensive care unit (ICU) and continuing it after ICU discharge. METHODS: Single-center, parallel-group, blinded, placebo-controlled, randomized feasibility trial. After traumatic injury necessitating admission to ICU, participants were randomized to receive an enteral study supplement of 3 g of HMB (intervention) or placebo daily for 28 days or until hospital discharge. Primary outcome was feasibility of administering the study supplement, quantified as protocol adherence. Secondary outcomes included change in quadriceps muscle thickness, measured weekly until day 28 or hospital discharge by using ultrasound and analyzed by using a linear mixed model. RESULTS: Fifty randomized participants (intervention, n = 26; placebo, n = 24) showed comparable baseline characteristics. Participants received 862 (84.3%) of the 1022 prescribed supplements during hospitalization with 543 (62.8%) delivered via an enteral feeding tube. The median (IQR) number of study supplements successfully administered per participant was 19.5 (13.0-24.0) in the intervention group and 16.5 (8.5-23.5) in the placebo group. Marked loss of quadriceps muscle thickness occurred in both groups, with the point estimate favoring attenuated muscle loss with the intervention, albeit with wide CIs (mean intervention difference after 28 days, 0.26 cm [95% CI, -0.13 to 0.64]). CONCLUSION: A blinded, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial of daily enteral HMB supplementation for up to 28 days in hospital is feasible. Any effect of HMB supplementation to attenuate muscle wasting after traumatic injury remains uncertain.

The relationship between study findings and publication outcome in anesthesia research following implementation of mandatory trial registration: A systematic review of publication bias.

Previously, we reviewed 1052 randomized-controlled trial abstracts presented at the American Society of Anesthesiologists annual meetings from 2001-2004. We found significant positive publication bias in the period examined, with the odds ratio for abstracts with positive results proceeding to journal publication over those with null results being 2.01 [95% confidence interval: 1.52, 2.66; P < 0.001]. Mandatory trial registration was introduced in 2005 as a required standard for publication. We sought to examine whether mandatory trial registration has decreased publication bias in the anesthesia and perioperative medicine literature. We reviewed all abstracts from the 2010-2016 American Society of Anesthesiologists meetings that reported on randomized-controlled trials in humans. We scored the result of each abstract as positive or null according to a priori definitions. We systematically searched for any subsequent publication of the studies and calculated the odds ratio for journal publication, comparing positive vs null studies. We compared the odds ratio from the 2010-2016 abstracts (post-mandatory trial registration) with the odds ratio from the 2001-2004 abstracts (pre-mandatory trial registration) as a ratio of odds ratios. We defined a 33% decrease in the odds ratio as significant, corresponding to a new odds ratio of 1.33. We reviewed 9789 abstracts; 1049 met inclusion criteria as randomized-controlled trials, with 542 (51.7%) of the abstracts going on to publication. The odds ratio for abstracts with positive results proceeding to journal publication was 1.28 [95% CI: 0.97, 1.67; P = 0.076]. With adjustment for sample size and abstract quality, the difference in publication rate between positive and null abstracts was statistically significant (odds ratio 1.34; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.76; P = 0.037). The ratio of odds ratios, comparing the odds ratio from the 2010-2016 abstracts (post-mandatory trial registration) to the odds ratio from the 2001-2004 abstracts (pre-mandatory trial registration), was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.93); P = 0.021). We present the first study in the anesthesia and perioperative medicine literature that examines and compares publication bias over two discrete periods of time, prior to and after the implementation of mandatory trial registration. Our results suggest that the amount of publication bias has decreased markedly following implementation of mandatory trial registration. However, some positive publication bias in the anesthesia and perioperative medicine literature remains.