A South African Epidemiological Study of Fatal Drownings: 2016-2021.

Drowning is a serious public health concern. Low-and-middle-income countries are the most affected by drowning, as they carry 90% of the global drowning burden. The purpose of this retrospective epidemiological study is to provide an overview of fatal drownings in South Africa between 2016 and 2021. The data used for the study were obtained from the South African Police Service. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the data. Statistical analyses included a t-test and chi-square test. The results indicate that the average number of fatal drownings per annum is 1477 in South Africa, with an average drowning rate of 2.54 per 100,000 population for the period 2016 to 2021. The KwaZulu-Natal province had the highest incidence of drowning. The 0-4-year-age group has the highest prevalence of drowning among all the age categories. More males drowned in South Africa compared to females.

Risk factors for postpartum haemorrhage in the Northern Province of Rwanda: A case control study.

BACKGROUND: Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) remains a major global burden contributing to high maternal mortality and morbidity rates. Assessment of PPH risk factors should be undertaken during antenatal, intrapartum and postpartum periods for timely prevention of maternal morbidity and mortality associated with PPH. The aim of this study is to investigate and model risk factors for primary PPH in Rwanda. METHODS: We conducted an observational case-control study of 430 (108 cases: 322 controls) pregnant women with gestational age of 32 weeks and above who gave birth in five selected health facilities of Rwanda between January and June 2020. By visual estimation of blood loss, cases of Primary PPH were women who changed the blood-soaked vaginal pads 2 times or more within the first hour after birth, or women requiring a blood transfusion for excessive bleeding after birth. Controls were randomly selected from all deliveries without primary PPH from the same source population. Poisson regression, a generalized linear model with a log link and a Poisson distribution was used to estimate the risk ratio of factors associated with PPH. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of primary PPH was 25.2%. Our findings for the following risk factors were: antepartum haemorrhage (RR 3.36, 95% CI 1.80-6.26, P<0.001); multiple pregnancy (RR 1.83; 95% CI 1.11-3.01, P = 0.02) and haemoglobin level <11 gr/dL (RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.00-2.30, P = 0.05). During the intrapartum and immediate postpartum period, the main causes of primary PPH were: uterine atony (RR 6.70, 95% CI 4.78-9.38, P<0.001), retained tissues (RR 4.32, 95% CI 2.87-6.51, P<0.001); and lacerations of genital organs after birth (RR 2.14, 95% CI 1.49-3.09, P<0.001). Coagulopathy was not prevalent in primary PPH. CONCLUSION: Based on our findings, uterine atony remains the foremost cause of primary PPH. As well as other established risk factors for PPH, antepartum haemorrhage and intra uterine fetal death should be included as risk factors in the development and validation of prediction models for PPH. Large scale studies are needed to investigate further potential PPH risk factors.

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Reflecting on the current scenario and forecasting the future demand for medical doctors in South Africa up to 2030: towards equal representation of women.

BACKGROUND: Increasing feminization of medical professions is well-acknowledged. However, this does not always equate to equitable representation of women within medicine, regarding their socio-demographic indicators, regions, sectors and fields of practice. Thus, this paper quantifies the gap in supply of female medical doctors in relation to demand, towards reaching different gender equity scenarios. METHODS: A retrospective review of the Health Professions Council of South Africa's (HPCSA) database on registered medical doctors (medical practitioners and medical specialists) from 2002 until 2019 was utilized as an indicator of supply. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize data, and inferential statistics (considering a significance level of 0.05) were utilized to determine the association between the number of male and female doctors, disaggregated by demographic variables. We forecasted future gaps of South African male and female doctors up to 2030, based on maintaining the current male-to-female ratio and attaining an equitable ratio of 1:1. RESULTS: While the ratio of female doctors per 10 000 population has increased between 2000 and 2019, from 1.2 to 3.2, it remains substantially lower than the comparative rate for male doctors per 10 000 population which increased from 3.5 in 2000 to 4.7 in 2019. Men continue to dominate the medical profession in 2019, representing 59.4% (27,579) of medical doctors registered with the HPCSA with females representing 40.6% (18,841), resulting in a male-to-female ratio of 1:0.7. Female doctors from the Black population group have constantly grown in the medical workforce from 4.4% (2000), to 12.5% (2019). There would be a deficit of 2242 female doctors by 2030 to achieve a 1:1 ratio between male and female medical doctors. An independent-samples t-test revealed that there was a significant difference in the number of male and female doctors. The Kruskal-Wallis test indicated that there was a sustained significant difference in terms of the number of male and female doctors by population groups and geographical distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the investigation, we propose that HRH planning incorporate forecasting methodologies towards reaching gender equity targets to inform planning for production of healthcare workers.

A human resources for health analysis of registered family medicine specialists in South Africa: 2002-19.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, there is a need to clarify the human resources for health policy on family physicians (FPs) and to ensure that the educational and health systems are well aligned in terms of the production and employment of FPs. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the human resource situation with regard to family medicine in South Africa and evaluate the requirements for the future. METHODS: A retrospective review of the Health Professions Council of South Africa's (HPCSA) database on registered family medicine practitioners from 2002 until 2019. Additional data were obtained from the South African Academy of Family Physicians and published research. RESULTS: A total of 1247 family medicine practitioners were registered with the HPCSA in 2019, including 969 specialist FPs and 278 medical practitioners on a discontinued register. Of the 969, 194 were new graduates and 775 from older programmes. The number of FPs increased from 0.04/10 000 population in 2009 to 0.16/10 000 in 2019, with only 29% in the public sector. On average, seven registrars entered each of nine training programmes per year and three graduated. New graduates and registrars reflect a growing diversity and more female FPs. The number of FPs differed significantly in terms of age, gender, provincial location and population groups. CONCLUSIONS: South Africa has an inadequate supply of FPs with substantial inequalities. Training programmes need to triple their output over the next 10 years. Human resources for health policy should substantially increase opportunities for training and employment of FPs.

Dental caries in a South African adult population: findings from the Cape Town Vascular and Metabolic Health Study.

OBJECTIVES: Caries is a ubiquitous non-communicable disease worldwide. There is a paucity of literature on adult caries in Africa, with the last epidemiological caries study in South Africa conducted in 1988/1989. This article reports on the decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) scores in relation to demographic characteristics for a mixed-ancestry South African population. METHODS: This cross-sectional epidemiological study was part of the ongoing Cape Town Bellville South Vascular and Metabolic Health Study. Each participant signed an informed consent form prior to enrolling in the study. During a clinical examination, DMFT score and components were recorded for each participant. Data analysis was performed with the statistical Package STATA 15. RESULTS: A sample of 1,885 participants was included in the study. Sixty-eight percent of the population experienced high DMFT scores. Mean DMFT score increased with age from 5 (≤ 24-year-old group) to 32 (≥ 75-year-old group, P < 0.001). It was higher in women than in men (28.5 vs. 18, respectively, P < 0.001). The missing component contributed 83% to DMFT score, followed by decayed (14%) and filled (3%) scores. Males had a higher average number of teeth present than females (18 vs. 6.5, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Dental caries experience was very high, with high levels of tooth loss in this community. These findings highlight limited access to preventive oral healthcare and a high rate of tooth extraction. Females presented higher levels of oral disease than males, indicating the need for preventive oral healthcare programmes in Cape Town, South Africa.

Periodontal Disease Status among Adults from South Africa-Prevalence and Effect of Smoking.

Periodontal diseases are among the six most prevalent non-communicable diseases (NCDs) worldwide, constituting a burden for oral and general health. There is a shortage of epidemiological data on periodontal diseases in Africa. The aim of the present cross-sectional study was to present the periodontal status and cotinine levels of a South African population of adults. This study included individuals living in the Belville South area. Bleeding on probing (BOP) and pocket depth were recorded for each tooth, and clinical attachment loss (CAL) was recorded as the highest score per sextant. Cotinine levels were measured in ng/mL. A total of 951 individuals were included. More than one third of all subjects had BOP. Regarding pocket depth, over 50% of the subjects had shallow pockets (4-5 mm), and almost 6% had deep pockets. CAL ≥ 4 mm was present in 40.1% of the subjects. Males presented worse periodontal conditions than females. In total, 52.7% of the participants had serum cotinine levels of ≥15 ng/mL. Cotinine levels had no effect on periodontal variables. Periodontal diseases were highly prevalent, and periodontal conditions were worse in males. Preventive and restorative public health programs are required to improve oral health in this population.