Determinants of time to first marriage and birth intervals among women of child bearing age in Dabat Health and demographic surveillance system site, Northwest Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Event histories such as marriage and birth have been used to study fertility behavior of women. Understanding the timing of these events provide insight to reproductive patterns of the population. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the timing of marriage and durations of birth intervals and their associated factors, and and to examine their effects on the current fertility among women in Dabat health and demographic surveillance system site, Northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: A community based cross-sectional survey was carried out in the beginning of 2020 among 1649 women of reproductive age group. Data were collected using structured and interviewer administered questionnaire. The parametric survival analysis was employed to estimate the relationships among socioeconomic and demographic variables with outcome variables, the timing of age at first marriage and duration of birth intervals. RESULTS: This study confirmed that median age at first marriage was the lowest estimated at 15 years which was below the national and regional average. The result of the study also revealed that married women waited almost a median duration of three years for their first, second, third and fourth child which was increased to nearly four years for three years preceding the survey. The parametric survival analysis showed woman's education, occupation, and current age were the predictors of age at first marriage. divorce experience, women empowerment and marriage cohort were the determinant factors of first birth interval; women education, child death, and ideal number of children were the predictors of second and third birth intervals; and media exposure and child death experience of women were predictors of fourth birth interval. CONCLUSION: The study indicated that median age at first marriage was the lowest though the successive birth intervals were longer. The survival analysis identified women's education, occupation, child death and ideal number of children affected the timing of age at first marriage and duration of birth intervals. Hence, encouraging women for higher education and giving opportunity to women in employments may contribute for delaying age at first marriage and increasing the duration of birth intervals which in turn slowing down the fertility of women.

Age at First Marriage and Fertility Decline in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System Site, Northwest Ethiopia: Decomposition Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Fertility decline in Ethiopia has been documented since the 1990s. Amhara National Regional State has recorded the most noticeable fertility decline. However, the specific factors that explain the incipient course of fertility decline in the study area and their relative contributions were not well investigated. Hence, the purpose of this study was to determine contributing factors of fertility decline and to assess variations in fertility that can be attributed to both changes in characteristics and reproductive behaviors of women aged 15-49 years between 2008 and 2014 in Dabat Demographic and Health Surveillance Site, Northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: Cross-sectional censuses were carried out in a Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in 2008 and 2014. Data for 4,775 and 10,807 women of reproductive age in 2008 and 2014 were used for the analysis. A Poisson regression model was employed to assess the trends of determinants of fertility, and multivariate decomposition analysis was applied to evaluate observed changes in fertility using data from two consecutive cross-sectional censuses of Dabat HDSS. RESULTS: Findings indicated that there was a reduction of an average 640.69 births per 1,000 women of reproductive age during 2014 compared to 2008 in the surveillance site (95% CI=-669.5 to -582.4). This overall change in fertility was attributed to both the changing characteristics of women (76%) (95% CI=-524.74 to -453.13) and their reproductive behavior (24%) (95% CI=-224.36 to -79.14). Drivers of the recent fertility decline were increased age at first marriage, a decreased proportion of currently married women, shift in women's birth to later age, and a higher women's educational status. CONCLUSION: This study indicated that the overall reduction in fertility was attributed to both changing characteristics of women and their reproductive behavior. Major contributors to the changes in fertility were postponing women's first marriage to a later age and changes in the proportion of currently married women over the study period. Encouraging women to complete at least secondary education is important to increase the age at first marriage and birth, which will in turn accelerate the current fertility transition.