Outcomes of Echocardiography-Detected Rheumatic Heart Disease: Validating a Simplified Score in Cohorts From Different Countries.

Background The natural history of latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) detected by echocardiography remains unclear. We aimed to assess the accuracy of a simplified score based on the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria in predicting mid-term RHD echocardiography outcomes in children from 4 different countries. Methods and Results Patient-level baseline and follow-up data of children with latent RHD from 4 countries (Australia, n=62; Brazil, n=197; Malawi, n=40; New Zealand, n=94) were combined. A simplified echocardiographic scoring system previously developed from Brazilian and Ugandan cohorts, consisting of 5 point-based variables with respective weights, was applied: mitral valveanterior leaflet thickening (weight=3), excessive leaflettip motion (3), regurgitation jet length ≥2 cm (6), aortic valvefocal thickening (4), and any regurgitation (5). Unfavorable outcome was defined as worsening diagnostic category, persistent definite RHD or development/worsening of valve regurgitation/stenosis. The score model was updated using methods for recalibration. 393 patients (314 borderline, 79 definite RHD) with median follow-up of 36 (interquartile range, 25-48) months were included. Median age was 14 (interquartile range, 11-16) years and secondary prophylaxis was prescribed to 16%. The echocardiographic score model applied to this external population showed significant association with unfavorable outcome (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.16; P=0.001). Unfavorable outcome rates in low (≤5 points), intermediate (6-9), and high-risk (≥10) children at 3-year follow-up were 14.3%, 20.8%, and 38.5% respectively (P<0.001). The updated score model showed good performance in predicting unfavorable outcome. Conclusions The echocardiographic score model for predicting RHD outcome was updated and validated for different latent RHD populations. It has potential utility in the clinical and screening setting for risk stratification of latent RHD.

Pneumonia and malnutrition are highly predictive of mortality among African children hospitalized with human immunodeficiency virus infection or exposure in the era of antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To identify clinical characteristics predicting death among inpatients who are infected with or exposed to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) during a period of pediatric antiretroviral therapy scale-up in sub-Saharan Africa. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective review of medical records from every child with HIV infection (n = 834) or exposure (n = 351) identified by routine inpatient testing in Kamuzu Central Hospital, Lilongwe, Malawi, September 2007 through December 2008. RESULTS: The inpatient mortality rate was high among children with HIV infection (16.6%) and exposure (13.4%). Clinically diagnosed Pneumocystis pneumonia or very severe pneumonia independently predicted death in inpatients with HIV infection (OR 14; 95% CI 8.2 to 23) or exposure (OR 21; CI 8.4 to 50). Severe acute malnutrition independently predicted death in children who are HIV infected (OR 2.2; CI 1.7 to 3.9) or exposed (OR 5.1; CI 2.3 to 11). Other independent predictors of death were septicemia, Kaposi sarcoma, meningitis, and esophageal candidiasis for children infected with HIV, and meningitis and severe anemia for inpatients exposed to HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Severe respiratory tract infections and malnutrition are both highly prevalent and strongly associated with death among hospitalized children who are HIV infected or exposed. Novel programmatic and therapeutic strategies are urgently needed to reduce the high mortality rate among inpatients with HIV infection and HIV exposure in African pediatric hospitals.