Exposure of the US population to extreme precipitation risk has increased due to climate change.

The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the early twenty-first century have already proven to be increasing at a rate more quickly than previously anticipated. Currently, the biggest consequence of the change in extreme precipitation is the lack of a climate-adjusted national standard taking into account these recent increases that could be used to prevent life and property loss from catastrophic precipitation-driven floods. Here, we address how severe the change in extreme precipitation compares against the current national standard for precipitation climatology (NOAA Atlas 14) and how much of the population is affected by the underestimation of this risk in the contiguous United States (CONUS). As a result, extreme precipitation in the early twenty-first century has outpaced our current national standard in half of CONUS, and the heavy precipitation events experienced recently are quickly becoming a "new normal", which will increase in severity and frequency in a continually changing climate. Over three-quarters of the U.S. population will likely experience this new normal occurrence of extreme precipitation. As much as one-third of the population is expected to experience the current definition of a 1-in-100-year storm as often as three times in their lifetime. Additionally, the current precipitation standards for designing transportation infrastructure and urban stormwater drainage systems that are built upon Atlas 14 may be insufficient to protect the public's safety and personal/community property from severe flooding. Areas where flood risk is mitigated by operating hydraulic and adaptation structures urgently need to assess the impact of the increased-hourly extreme precipitation and reevaluate their applicable operation rules. Understanding and predicting patterns and the likelihood of short-duration heavy precipitation would be beneficial in preparing for severe precipitation-driven disasters, such as flash floods and landslides, which would happen more frequently in a changing climate. Following the results of this analysis, accelerating the development and dissemination of the next generation of the national standard that has been climatically adjusted to adapt to the new normal is strongly recommended.

Integrating climate change induced flood risk into future population projections.

Flood exposure has been linked to shifts in population sizes and composition. Traditionally, these changes have been observed at a local level providing insight to local dynamics but not general trends, or at a coarse resolution that does not capture localized shifts. Using historic flood data between 2000-2023 across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), we identify the relationships between flood exposure and population change. We demonstrate that observed declines in population are statistically associated with higher levels of historic flood exposure, which may be subsequently coupled with future population projections. Several locations have already begun to see population responses to observed flood exposure and are forecasted to have decreased future growth rates as a result. Finally, we find that exposure to high frequency flooding (5 and 20-year return periods) results in 2-7% lower growth rates than baseline projections. This is exacerbated in areas with relatively high exposure to frequent flooding where growth is expected to decline over the next 30 years.

A Conceptual Enterprise Framework for Managing Scientific Data Stewardship.

Scientific data stewardship is an important part of long-term preservation and the use/reuse of digital research data. It is critical for ensuring trustworthiness of data, products, and services, which is important for decision-making. Recent U.S. federal government directives and scientific organization guidelines have levied specific requirements, increasing the need for a more formal approach to ensuring that stewardship activities support compliance verification and reporting. However, many science data centers lack an integrated, systematic, and holistic framework to support such efforts. The current business- and process-oriented stewardship frameworks are too costly and lengthy for most data centers to implement. They often do not explicitly address the federal stewardship requirements and/or the uniqueness of geospatial data. This work proposes a data-centric conceptual enterprise framework for managing stewardship activities, based on the philosophy behind the Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycle, a proven industrial concept. This framework, which includes the application of maturity assessment models, allows for quantitative evaluation of how organizations manage their stewardship activities and supports informed decision-making for continual improvement towards full compliance with federal, agency, and user requirements.