Quantitative T1 brain mapping in early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: longitudinal changes, lesion heterogeneity and disability.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify brain microstructural changes in recently diagnosed relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) using longitudinal T1 measures, and determine their associations with clinical disability. METHODS: Seventy-nine people with recently diagnosed (< 6 months) RRMS were recruited from a single-centre cohort sub-study, and underwent baseline and 1-year brain MRI, including variable flip angle T1 mapping. Median T1 was measured in white matter lesions (WML), normal-appearing white matter (NAWM), cortical/deep grey matter (GM), thalami, basal ganglia and medial temporal regions. Prolonged T1 (≥ 2.00 s) and supramedian T1 (relative to cohort WML values) WML voxel counts were also measured. Longitudinal change was assessed with paired t-tests and compared with Bland-Altman limits of agreement from healthy control test-retest data. Regression analyses determined relationships with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score and dichotomised EDSS outcomes (worsening or stable/improving). RESULTS: Sixty-two people with RRMS (mean age 37.2 ± 10.9 [standard deviation], 48 female) and 11 healthy controls (age 44 ± 11, 7 female) contributed data. Prolonged and supramedian T1 WML components increased longitudinally (176 and 463 voxels, respectively; p < .001), and were associated with EDSS score at baseline (p < .05) and follow-up (supramedian: p < .01; prolonged: p < .05). No cohort-wide median T1 changes were found; however, increasing T1 in WML, NAWM, cortical/deep GM, basal ganglia and thalami was positively associated with EDSS worsening (p < .05). CONCLUSION: T1 is sensitive to brain microstructure changes in early RRMS. Prolonged WML T1 components and subtle changes in NAWM and GM structures are associated with disability. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: MRI T1 brain mapping quantifies disability-associated white matter lesion heterogeneity and subtle microstructural damage in normal-appearing brain parenchyma in recently diagnosed RRMS, and shows promise for early objective disease characterisation and stratification. KEY POINTS: • Quantitative T1 mapping detects brain microstructural damage and lesion heterogeneity in recently diagnosed relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. • T1 increases in lesions and normal-appearing parenchyma, indicating microstructural damage, are associated with worsening disability. • Brain T1 measures are objective markers of disability-relevant pathology in early multiple sclerosis.

Network analysis characterizes key associations between subjective fatigue and specific depressive symptoms in early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Fatigue is common and disabling in multiple sclerosis (MS), yet its mechanisms are poorly understood. In particular, overlap in measures of fatigue and depression complicates interpretation. We applied a multivariate network approach to quantify relationships between fatigue and other variables in early MS. METHODS: Data were collected from patients with newly diagnosed immunotherapy-naïve relapsing-remitting MS at baseline and month 12 follow-up in FutureMS, a Scottish nationally representative cohort. Subjective fatigue was assessed by Fatigue Severity Scale. Detailed phenotyping included measures assessing each of physical disability, affective disorders, cognitive performance, sleep quality, and structural brain imaging. Network analysis was conducted to estimate partial correlations between variables. Baseline networks were compared between those with persistent and remitted fatigue at one-year follow up. RESULTS: Data from 322 participants at baseline, and 323 at month 12, were included. At baseline, 154 patients (47.8%) reported clinically significant fatigue. In the network analysis, fatigue severity showed strongest connections with depression, followed by Expanded Disability Status Scale. Conversely, fatigue severity was not linked to objective cognitive performance or brain imaging variables. Even after controlling for measurement of "tiredness" in our measure of depression, four specific depressive symptoms remained linked to fatigue. Results were consistent at baseline and month 12. Overall network strength was not significantly different between groups with persistent and remitted fatigue (4.89 vs 2.90, p = 0.11). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support robust links between subjective fatigue and depression in early relapsing-remitting MS. Shared mechanisms between specific depressive symptoms and fatigue could be key targets of treatment and research in MS-related fatigue.

FutureMS cohort profile: a Scottish multicentre inception cohort study of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

PURPOSE: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated, neuroinflammatory disease of the central nervous system and in industrialised countries is the most common cause of progressive neurological disability in working age persons. While treatable, there is substantial interindividual heterogeneity in disease activity and response to treatment. Currently, the ability to predict at diagnosis who will have a benign, intermediate or aggressive disease course is very limited. There is, therefore, a need for integrated predictive tools to inform individualised treatment decision making. PARTICIPANTS: Established with the aim of addressing this need for individualised predictive tools, FutureMS is a nationally representative, prospective observational cohort study of 440 adults with a new diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS living in Scotland at the time of diagnosis between May 2016 and March 2019. FINDINGS TO DATE: The study aims to explore the pathobiology and determinants of disease heterogeneity in MS and combines detailed clinical phenotyping with imaging, genetic and biomarker metrics of disease activity and progression. Recruitment, baseline assessment and follow-up at year 1 is complete. Here, we describe the cohort design and present a profile of the participants at baseline and 1 year of follow-up. FUTURE PLANS: A third follow-up wave for the cohort has recently begun at 5 years after first visit and a further wave of follow-up is funded for year 10. Longer-term follow-up is anticipated thereafter.

Prevention of MS Requires Intervention on the Causes of the Disease: Reconciling Genes, Epigenetics, and Epstein Barr Virus.

Prevention of multiple sclerosis requires intervention on modifiable causes of the condition making it necessary to establish what those causes are. MS is often stated to be a polygenic disease, with causal contributions from environmental factors and gene-environment interactions, implying an additive and independent relationship of these factors. Mechanistically there are no independent contributions of genes or environmental factors to traits. This model is unrealistic but still useful and underlies the concept of heritability, a foundational parameter in population genetics. However, it perpetuates a debate on an irreconcilable dichotomy about whether MS is primarily genetic or environmental. In particular, epidemiological evidence now exists for a causal, possibly even necessary, role for Epstein Barr Virus in MS. The additive model makes it unintuitive to reconcile MS as a genetic disease but also independently a viral illness. In this perspective it is argued that starting from a realistic interaction only model, based on broadly accepted biological premises, and working forward to explain why the classical additive model gives useful results, there is actually no paradox. An integrated approach using population genetic studies, immunology and molecular virology offers a particularly promising route to establish the elusive role of EBV in MS pathology, as EBV is a large and complex virus and its latency, dysregulated in most EBV-related pathologies, is hard to study in vivo. This approach may offer a route to prevention of MS altogether.

Rationale and design of the brain magnetic resonance imaging protocol for FutureMS: a longitudinal multi-centre study of newly diagnosed patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in Scotland.

Introduction: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative disease. MS prevalence varies geographically and is notably high in Scotland. Disease trajectory varies significantly between individuals and the causes for this are largely unclear. Biomarkers predictive of disease course are urgently needed to allow improved stratification for current disease modifying therapies and future targeted treatments aimed at neuroprotection and remyelination. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can detect disease activity and underlying damage non-invasively in vivo at the micro and macrostructural level. FutureMS is a prospective Scottish longitudinal multi-centre cohort study, which focuses on deeply phenotyping patients with recently diagnosed relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). Neuroimaging is a central component of the study and provides two main primary endpoints for disease activity and neurodegeneration. This paper provides an overview of MRI data acquisition, management and processing in FutureMS. FutureMS is registered with the Integrated Research Application System (IRAS, UK) under reference number 169955. Methods and analysis: MRI is performed at baseline (N=431) and 1-year follow-up, in Dundee, Glasgow and Edinburgh (3T Siemens) and in Aberdeen (3T Philips), and managed and processed in Edinburgh. The core structural MRI protocol comprises T1-weighted, T2-weighted, FLAIR and proton density images. Primary imaging outcome measures are new/enlarging white matter lesions (WML) and reduction in brain volume over one year. Secondary imaging outcome measures comprise WML volume as an additional quantitative structural MRI measure, rim lesions on susceptibility-weighted imaging, and microstructural MRI measures, including diffusion tensor imaging and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging metrics, relaxometry, magnetisation transfer (MT) ratio, MT saturation and derived g-ratio measures. Conclusions: FutureMS aims to reduce uncertainty around disease course and allow for targeted treatment in RRMS by exploring the role of conventional and advanced MRI measures as biomarkers of disease severity and progression in a large population of RRMS patients in Scotland.

Prevalence of multimorbidity and its impact on survival in people with motor neuron disease.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of multimorbidity in people with motor neuron disease (MND) and to identify whether specific patterns of multimorbidity impact survival beyond age alone. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the Scottish national MND register from 1 January 2015 to 29 October 2019. People with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, primary lateral sclerosis, progressive muscular atrophy, or progressive bulbar palsy were included. We fitted latent class regression models incorporating comorbidities (class indicators), age, sex, and bulbar onset (covariates), and survival (distal outcome) with multimorbidity as a hypothesised latent variable. We also investigated the association between the Charlson Comorbidity Index and survival in Cox regression and compared its discrimination and calibration to age alone. RESULTS: A total of 937 people with MND were identified (median age = 67 years, 60.2% male); 64.8% (n = 515) had two or more comorbidities. We identified a subpopulation with high prevalence of cardiovascular disease, but when accounting for the relationship between age and individual comorbidities, there was no difference in survival. Both Charlson Comorbidity Index (hazard ratio [HR] per unit increase = 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-1.15, p < 0.0001) and age (HR per year increase = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03-1.05, p < 0.0001) were significantly associated with survival, but discrimination was higher for age compared to Charlson Comorbidity Index (C-index = 0.63 vs. 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity is common in MND, necessitating holistic interdisciplinary management, but age is the dominant predictor of prognosis in people with MND. Excluding people with MND and multimorbidity from trial participation may do little to homogenise the cohort in terms of survival potential and could harm generalisability.

Questioning the regressivity of tobacco taxes: a distributional accounting impact model of increased tobacco taxation.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco taxes, as with other 'sin taxes', are generally regarded as a highly cost-effective mechanism to reduce consumption but are often considered by policymakers to be regressive, undermining efforts to fully implement them at levels recommended by the WHO due to concerns of fairness. We aim to demonstrate whether there are circumstances in which the impacts of additional tobacco taxes are not regressive, using a standard income-share accounting definition of tax burden. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We apply mathematical modelling and explore the hypothetical distributions in the net change in tobacco taxes and cigarette expenditures by income group, following an increase in tobacco taxation. The hypothetical distribution per income group of additional taxes and cigarette expenditures borne by individuals following tobacco tax hikes was calculated with respect to a selection of parameters including: the change in the retail price of cigarettes, the price elasticity of demand for tobacco, smoking prevalence, cigarette consumption and individual income. We determine the range of hypothetical parameter values for which increased tobacco taxation should not be considered to penalise the poorest income groups when examining marginal cigarette consumption expenditures and using an accounting definition of tax burden. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings question the doctrine that tobacco taxes are uniformly regressive from a standard income-share accounting view and point to the importance of the specific features of tax policy to shape a progressive approach to tobacco taxation: tobacco tax increases are less likely to be regressive when accompanied by a broad framework of demand-side measures that enhance the capacity of low-income smokers to quit tobacco use.

Non-invasive risk scores do not reliably identify future cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma in Type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increased in Type 2 diabetes, primarily secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). European guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in Type 2 diabetes. American guidelines, while not advocating a screening protocol, suggest using non-invasive markers of fibrosis for risk-stratification and guiding onward referral. AIMS: To test the ability of individual fibrosis scores and the European screening algorithm to predict 11-year incident cirrhosis/HCC in an asymptomatic community cohort of older people with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study investigated men and women with Type 2 diabetes (n = 1066, aged 60-75 at baseline). Liver markers were measured at baseline and year 1; steatosis and fibrosis markers were calculated according to independently published calculations. During 11 years of follow-up, cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified. RESULTS: Forty-three out of 1059 participants with no baseline cirrhosis/HCC developed incident disease. All scores were significantly associated with incident liver disease by odds ratio (P < .05). The ability of the risk-stratification tools to accurately identify those who developed incident cirrhosis/HCC was poor with low-positive predictive values (5-46%) and high false-negative and -positive rates (up to 60% and 77%) respectively. When fibrosis risk scores were used in conjunction with the European algorithm, they performed modestly better than when applied in isolation. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort with a moderately low incidence of cirrhosis/HCC, existing risk scores did not reliably identify participants at high risk. Better prediction models for cirrhosis/HCC in people with Type 2 diabetes are required.

Systematic review of prediction models in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis.

The natural history of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is variable and prediction of individual prognosis challenging. The inability to reliably predict prognosis at diagnosis has important implications for informed decision making especially in relation to disease modifying therapies. We conducted a systematic review in order to collate, describe and assess the methodological quality of published prediction models in RRMS. We searched Medline, Embase and Web of Science. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts and full text for eligibility and assessed risk of bias. Studies reporting development or validation of prediction models for RRMS in adults were included. Data collection was guided by the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews (CHARMS) and applicability and methodological quality assessment by the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). 30 studies were included in the review. Applicability was assessed as high risk of concern in 27 studies. Risk of bias was assessed as high for all studies. The single most frequently included predictor was baseline EDSS (n = 11). T2 Lesion volume or number and brain atrophy were each retained in seven studies. Five studies included external validation and none included impact analysis. Although a number of prediction models for RRMS have been reported, most are at high risk of bias and lack external validation and impact analysis, restricting their application to routine clinical practice.

Impact of the first COVID-19 pandemic wave on the Scottish Multiple Sclerosis Register population.

Background: The impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on people with multiple sclerosis (MS) is a major current concern, in particular the risk of death. Here we describe the impact of the first wave of COVID-19 infections (Mar 2020-July 2020) on the Scottish MS Register (SMSR) population, a cohort of 4702 individuals with MS, all newly diagnosed in the past decade. Methods: We established a clinician alert system, linking the SMSR with the Electronic Communication of Surveillance in Scotland (ECOSS). This allows identification of patients within this cohort who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. The SMSR was also linked to death records from National Records Scotland. Results: Of 4702 people with MS, 246 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) PCR tests were performed, of which 17 were positive. The proportion of positive tests were similar to the general Scotland population (Observed PCR confirmed cases = 17, expected = 17.5, O/E = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.60 - 1.56, p=.90). Between 1 st March - 31 st July 2020 12 individuals on the SMSR died, 5 of which were linked to COVID-19 (1 PCR confirmed, 4 clinical diagnoses without PCR confirmation). This number of COVID-19-related deaths was higher than expected (observed deaths = 5, expected deaths = 1.2, O/E = 4.03, 95% CI = 1.48 - 8.94, p=.01). All COVID-19-related deaths in the SMSR occurred in individuals with advanced disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale ≥7), and no deaths occurred in patients receiving disease modifying therapy (DMT) therapies. Conclusion: In this nationally comprehensive cohort of MS patients diagnosed in Scotland within the past 10 years, we observed similar rates of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to the general Scottish population, but a small number of excess COVID-19 related deaths. These deaths occurred in individuals with advanced disability who were not receiving DMTs.

Regional variation in the incidence rate and sex ratio of multiple sclerosis in Scotland 2010-2017: findings from the Scottish Multiple Sclerosis Register.

BACKGROUND: Fifteen regional studies published over the last six decades surveying prevalence, mortality and hospital admissions have suggested that Scotland is amongst the highest risk nations for multiple sclerosis (MS) in the world. However, substantial intranational variation in rates (between regions) has been described in numerous countries, including in the only previous Scottish national survey, which used hospital admission data, to address this issue. Against this backdrop, the Scottish Multiple Sclerosis Register (SMSR) was established in 2010 to prospectively collect nationally comprehensive incidence data and to allow for regional comparisons. METHODS: Here, we present the SMSR and analyse the variation in crude and age-sex standardized incidence rates, lifetime risk (cumulative incidence), and the sex distribution of cases and rates, between the 14 administrative Health Boards or regions of Scotland: 01 January 2010 to 31 December 2017. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate for Scotland was 8.76/100,000 person-years (standardized: 8.54). Regional incidence rates varied significantly-up to threefold-between Health Boards (p < 1 × 10-13). The national female-to-male sex ratio was 2.3:1, but this too varied regionally (outlier regions result in a range from 1.0 to 4.2:1). Lifetime risk ranged from 19.9/1000 for females in Orkney (58.98°N) to 1.6/1000 for males in the Borders (55.60°N). Comparison with a previous national survey suggests that these differences are longstanding. In 6 of 14 regions the lifetime risk for women exceeds 1%. CONCLUSIONS: This study introduces a national incidence register: a valuable research tool and the result of substantial public investment. The wide variation in incidence rates and sex ratios between regions, in a relatively homogenous population, raises questions for future study.

Hypothesis: Multiple sclerosis is caused by three-hits, strictly in order, in genetically susceptible persons.

Multiple Sclerosis is a chronic, progressive and debilitating neurological disease which, despite extensive study for over 100 years, remains of enigmatic aetiology. Drawn from the epidemiological evidence, there exists a consensus that there are environmental (possibly infectious) factors that contribute to disease pathogenesis that have not yet been fully elucidated. Here we propose a three-tiered hypothesis: 1) a clinic-epidemiological model of multiple sclerosis as a rare late complication of two sequential infections (with the temporal sequence of infections being important); 2) a proposal that the first event is helminthic infection with Enterobius Vermicularis, and the second is Epstein Barr Virus infection; and 3) a proposal for a testable biological mechanism, involving T-Cell exhaustion for Epstein-Barr Virus protein LMP2A. We believe that this model satisfies some of the as-yet unexplained features of multiple sclerosis epidemiology, is consistent with the clinical and neuropathological features of the disease and is potentially testable by experiment. This model may be generalizable to other autoimmune diseases.