Differential patterns of disease and injury in Mozambique: New perspectives from a pragmatic, multicenter, surveillance study of 7809 emergency presentations.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of primary data to understand the overall pattern of disease and injuries as well as related health-service utilization in resource-poor countries in Africa. OBJECTIVE: To generate reliable and robust data describing the pattern of emergency presentations attributable to communicable disease (CD), non-communicable disease (NCD) and injuries in three different regions of Mozambique. METHODS: We undertook a pragmatic, prospective, multicentre surveillance study of individuals (all ages) presenting to the emergency departments of three hospitals in Southern (Maputo), Central (Beira) and Northern (Nampula) Mozambique. During 24-hour surveillance in the seasonally distinct months of April and October 2016/2017, we recorded data on 7,809 participants randomly selected from 39,124 emergency presentations to the three participating hospitals. Applying a pragmatic surveillance protocol, data were prospectively collected on the demography, clinical history, medical profile and treatment of study participants. FINDINGS: A total of 4,021 males and 3,788 (48.5%) females comprising 630 infants (8.1%), 2,070 children (26.5%), 1,009 adolescents (12.9%) and, 4,100 adults (52.5%) were studied. CD was the most common presentation (3,914 cases/50.1%) followed by NCD (1,963/25.1%) and injuries (1,932/24.7%). On an adjusted basis, CD was more prevalent in younger individuals (17.9±17.7 versus 26.6±19.2 years;p<0.001), females (51.7% versus 48.7%-OR 1.137, 95%CI 1.036-1.247;p = 0.007), the capital city of Maputo (59.6%) versus the more remote cities of Beira (42.8%-OR 0.532, 95%CI 0.476-0.594) and Nampula (45.8%-OR 0.538, 95%CI 0.480-0.603) and, during April (51.1% versus 49.3% for October-OR 1.142, 95%CI 1.041-1.253;p = 0.005). Conversely, NCD was progressively more prevalent in older individuals, females and in the regional city of Beira, whilst injuries were more prevalent in males (particularly adolescent/young men) and the northern city of Nampula. On a 24-hour basis, presentation patterns were unique to each hospital. INTERPRETATION: Applying highly pragmatic surveillance methods suited to the low-resource setting of Mozambique, these unique data provide critical insights into the differential pattern of CD, NCD and injury. Consequently, they highlight specific health priorities across different regions and seasons in Southern Africa.

Winter Peaks in Heart Failure: An Inevitable or Preventable Consequence of Seasonal Vulnerability?

Climate change is a major contributor to annual winter peaks in cardiovascular events across the globe. However, given the paradoxical observation that cardiovascular seasonality is observed in relatively mild as well as cold climates, global warming may not be as positive for the syndrome of heart failure (HF) as some predict. In this article, we present our Model of Seasonal Flexibility to explain the spectrum of individual responses to climatic conditions. We have identified distinctive phenotypes of resilience and vulnerability to explain why winter peaks in HF occur. Moreover, we identify how better identification of climatic vulnerability and the use of multifaceted interventions focusing on modifiable bio-behavioural factors may improve HF outcomes.

Pattern and Outcome of Heart Failure-Related Hospitalization Over 5 Years in a Remote Australian Population: A Retrospective Administrative Data Cohort of 617 Indigenous and non-Indigenous Cases.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this work was to understand the pattern and outcomes for heart failure (HF)-related hospitalization among Indigenous and non-Indigenous patients living in Central Australia. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective analysis of administrative data for patients presenting with a primary or secondary diagnosis of HF to Central Australia's Alice Springs Hospital during 2008-2012 was performed. The population rate of admission and subsequent outcomes (including mortality and readmission) during the 5-year study period were examined. A total of 617 patients, aged 55.8 ± 17.5 years and 302 (49%) female constituted the study cohort. The 446 Indigenous patients (72%) were significantly younger (50.8 ± 15.9 vs 68.7 ± 14.9; P < .001) and clinically more complex compared with the non-Indigenous patients. Annual prevalence of any HF hospitalization was markedly higher in the Indigenous population (1.9%, 95% CI 1.7-2.1) compared with the non-Indigenous population (0.5%, 95% CI 0.4-0.6); the greatest difference being for women. Overall, non-Indigenous patients had poorer outcomes and were significantly more likely to die (P < .0001), but this was largely driven by age differences. Alternatively, Indigenous patients were significantly more likely to have a higher number of hospitalizations, although indigeneity was not a predictor for 30- or 365-day rehospitalization from the index admission. CONCLUSION: The pattern of HF among Indigenous Australians in Central Australia is characterized by a younger population with more clinically complex cases and greater health care utilization.

Seasonal variations in cardiovascular disease.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) follows a seasonal pattern in many populations. Broadly defined winter peaks and clusters of all subtypes of CVD after 'cold snaps' are consistently described, with corollary peaks linked to heat waves. Individuals living in milder climates might be more vulnerable to seasonality. Although seasonal variation in CVD is largely driven by predictable changes in weather conditions, a complex interaction between ambient environmental conditions and the individual is evident. Behavioural and physiological responses to seasonal change modulate susceptibility to cardiovascular seasonality. The heterogeneity in environmental conditions and population dynamics across the globe means that a definitive study of this complex phenomenon is unlikely. However, given the size of the problem and a range of possible targets to reduce seasonal provocation of CVD in vulnerable individuals, scope exists for both greater recognition of the problem and application of multifaceted interventions to attenuate its effects. In this Review, we identify the physiological and environmental factors that contribute to seasonality in nearly all forms of CVD, highlight findings from large-scale population studies of this phenomenon across the globe, and describe the potential strategies that might attenuate peaks in cardiovascular events during cold and hot periods of the year.

Cardiovascular disease in Africa: epidemiological profile and challenges.

From a global perspective, the large and diverse African population is disproportionately affected by cardiovascular disease (CVD). The historical balance between communicable and noncommunicable pathways to CVD in different African regions is dependent on external factors over the life course and at a societal level. The future risk of noncommunicable forms of CVD (predominantly driven by increased rates of hypertension, smoking, and obesity) is a growing public health concern. The incidence of previously rare forms of CVD such as coronary artery disease will increase, in concert with historically prevalent forms of disease, such as rheumatic heart disease, that are yet to be optimally prevented or treated. The success of any strategies designed to reduce the evolving and increasing burden of CVD across the heterogeneous communities living on the African continent will be dependent upon accurate and up-to-date epidemiological data on the cardiovascular profile of every major populace and region. In this Review, we provide a contemporary picture of the epidemiology of CVD in Africa, highlight key regional discrepancies among populations, and emphasize what is currently known and, more importantly, what is still unknown about the CVD burden among the >1 billion people living on the continent.

The causes, treatment, and outcome of pulmonary hypertension in Africa: Insights from the Pan African Pulmonary Hypertension Cohort (PAPUCO) Registry.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiology, aetiology, management and outcome data for various forms of pulmonary hypertension (PH) in Africa are scarce. METHODS: A prospective, multinational cohort registry of 220 consecutive patients (97% of African descent) from 9 specialist centres in 4 African countries. The antecedents, characteristics and management of newly diagnosed PH plus 6-month survival were studied. RESULTS: There were 209 adults (median age 48years [IQR 35, 64]) and 11 children (age range 1 to 17years). Most adults had advanced disease - 66% WHO Functional Class III-IV, median 6-minute walk test distance of 252m (IQR 120, 350) and median right ventricular systolic pressure 58mmHg (IQR 49, 74). Adults comprised 16% pulmonary arterial hypertension, 69% PH due to left heart disease, 11% PH due to lung disease and/or hypoxia, 2% chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, and 2% PH with unclear multifactorial mechanism. At 6-months, 21% of adults with follow-up data had died. On an adjusted basis (independent of sub-groups) mortality was associated with increasing functional impairment (p=0.021 overall - WHO Class IV versus I, OR 1.68 [95% CI 0.13, 4.36]) and presence of combined right atrial and ventricular hypertrophy (46% - OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.45, 5.72). Children commonly presented with dyspnoea, fatigue, cough, and palpitations with six and three children, respectively diagnosed with concurrent PH associated congenital heart disease and left heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide new insights into PH from an African perspective, with clear opportunities to improve its prevention, treatment and outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02265887).

Establishing a pragmatic framework to optimise health outcomes in heart failure and multimorbidity (ARISE-HF): A multidisciplinary position statement.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity in heart failure (HF), defined as HF of any aetiology and multiple concurrent conditions that require active management, represents an emerging problem within the ageing HF patient population worldwide. METHODS: To inform this position paper, we performed: 1) an initial review of the literature identifying the ten most common conditions, other than hypertension and ischaemic heart disease, complicating the management of HF (anaemia, arrhythmias, cognitive dysfunction, depression, diabetes, musculoskeletal disorders, renal dysfunction, respiratory disease, sleep disorders and thyroid disease) and then 2) a review of the published literature describing the association between HF with each of the ten conditions. From these data we describe a clinical framework, comprising five key steps, to potentially improve historically poor health outcomes in this patient population. RESULTS: We identified five key steps (ARISE-HF) that could potentially improve clinical outcomes if applied in a systematic manner: 1) Acknowledge multimorbidity as a clinical syndrome that is associated with poor health outcomes, 2) Routinely profile (using a standardised protocol - adapted to the local health care system) all patients hospitalised with HF to determine the extent of concurrent multimorbidity, 3) Identify individualised priorities and person-centred goals based on the extent and nature of multimorbidity, 4) Support individualised, home-based, multidisciplinary, case management to supplement standard HF management, and 5) Evaluate health outcomes well beyond acute hospitalisation and encompass all-cause events and a person-centred perspective in affected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We propose ARISE-HF as a framework for improving typically poor health outcomes in those affected by multimorbidity in HF.