Who will benefit from bariatric surgery for diabetes? A protocol for an observational cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity are pandemic diseases that lead to a great deal of morbidity and mortality. The most effective treatment for obesity and T2DM is bariatric or metabolic surgery; it can lead to long-term diabetes remission with 4 in 10 of those undergoing surgery having normal blood glucose on no medication 1 year postoperatively. However, surgery carries risks and, additionally, due to resource limitations, there is a restricted number of patients who can access this treatment. Moreover, not all those who undertake surgery respond equally well metabolically. The objective of the current research is to prospectively investigate predictors of T2DM response following metabolic surgery, including those directly involved in its aetiopathogenesis such as fat distribution and genetic variants. This will inform development of a clinically applicable model to help prioritise this therapy to those predicted to have remission. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A prospective multicentre observational cohort study of adult patients with T2DM and obesity undergoing Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery. Patients will be comprehensively assessed before surgery to determine their clinical, metabolic, psychological, genetic and fat distribution profiles. A multivariate logistic regression model will be used to assess the value of the factors derived from the preoperative assessment in terms of prediction of diabetes remission. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Formal ethics review was undertaken with a favourable opinion (UK HRA RES reference number 18/LO/0931). The dissemination plan is to present the results at conferences, in peer-reviewed journals as well as to lay media and to patient organisations. TRIAL REGISTRATION DETAILS: ClinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT03842475.

Adverse outcomes in COVID-19 and diabetes: a retrospective cohort study from three London teaching hospitals.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with diabetes mellitus admitted to hospital with COVID-19 have poorer outcomes. However, the drivers of poorer outcomes are not fully elucidated. We performed detailed characterization of patients with COVID-19 to determine the clinical and biochemical factors that may be drivers of poorer outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of 889 consecutive inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 9 and April 22, 2020 in a large London National Health Service Trust. Unbiased multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine variables that were independently and significantly associated with increased risk of death and/or intensive care unit (ICU) admission within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. RESULTS: 62% of patients in our cohort were of non-white ethnic background and the prevalence of diabetes was 38%. 323 (36%) patients met the primary outcome of death/admission to the ICU within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. Male gender, lower platelet count, advancing age and higher Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) score (but not diabetes) independently predicted poor outcomes on multivariate analysis. Antiplatelet medication was associated with a lower risk of death/ICU admission. Factors that were significantly and independently associated with poorer outcomes in patients with diabetes were coexisting ischemic heart disease, increasing age and lower platelet count. CONCLUSIONS: In this large study of a diverse patient population, comorbidity (ie, diabetes with ischemic heart disease; increasing CFS score in older patients) was a major determinant of poor outcomes with COVID-19. Antiplatelet medication should be evaluated in randomized clinical trials among high-risk patient groups.