Probabilistic modeling and risk characterization of the chronic aflatoxin M1 exposure of Hungarian consumers.

Aflatoxin contamination can appear in various points of the food chain. If animals are fed with contaminated feed, AFB1 is transformed-among others-to aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) metabolite. AFM1 is less toxic than AFB1, but it is still genotoxic and carcinogenic and it is present in raw and processed milk and all kinds of milk products. In this article, the chronic exposure estimation and risk characterization of Hungarian consumers are presented, based on the AFM1 contamination of milk and dairy products, and calculated with a probabilistic method, the two-dimensional Monte-Carlo model. The calculations were performed using the R plugin (mc2d package) integrated into the KNIME (Konstanz Information Miner) software. The simulations were performed using data from the 2018-2020 food consumption survey. The AFM1 analytical data were derived from the Hungarian monitoring survey and 1,985 milk samples were analyzed within the framework of the joint project of the University of Debrecen and the National Food Chain Safety Office of Hungary (NÉBIH). Limited AFM1 concentrations were available for processed dairy products; therefore, a database of AFM1 processing factors for sour milk products and various cheeses was produced based on the latest literature data, and consumer exposure was calculated with the milk equivalent of the consumed quantities of these products. For risk characterization, the calculation of hazard index (HI), Margin of Exposure, and the hepatocellular carcinoma incidence were used. The results indicate that the group of toddlers that consume a large amount of milk and milk products are exposed to a certain level of health risk. The mean estimated daily intake of toddlers is in the range of 0.008-0.221 ng kg-1 bw day-1; the 97.5th percentile exposure of toddlers is between 0.013 ng kg-1 bw day-1 and 0.379 ng kg-1 bw day-1, resulting in a HI above 1. According to our study, the exposure of older age groups does not pose an emergent health risk. Nevertheless, the presence of carcinogenic compounds should be kept to a minimum in the whole population.

A Systematic Review of the Efficacy of Interventions to Control Aflatoxins in the Dairy Production Chain-Feed Production and Animal Feeding Interventions.

The study presents a systematic review of published scientific articles investigating the effects of interventions aiming at aflatoxin reduction at the feed production and animal feeding phases of the milk value chain in order to identify the recent scientific trends and summarize the main findings available in the literature. The review strategy was designed based on the guidance of the systematic review and knowledge synthesis methodology that is applicable in the field of food safety. The Web of Science and EBSCOhost online databases were searched with predefined algorithms. After title and abstract relevance screening and relevance confirmation with full-text screening, 67 studies remained for data extraction, which were included in the review. The most important identified groups of interventions based on their mode of action and place in the technological process are as follows: low-moisture production using preservatives, acidity regulators, adsorbents and various microbiological additives. The results of the listed publications are summarized and compared for all the identified intervention groups. The paper aimed to help feed producers, farmers and relevant stakeholders to get an overview of the most suitable aflatoxin mitigation options, which is extremely important in the near future as climate change will likely be accompanied by elevated mycotoxin levels.

Corrigendum: Detection of Aflatoxins in Different Matrices and Food-Chain Positions.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2020.01916.].

Sources of Random Variation of Pesticide Residue Analytical Results.

BACKGROUND: Pesticide residues are analyzed in thousands of samples yearly by national authorities and private laboratories. Intensive research is ongoing to develop new methods or improve existing ones concentrating on extraction, cleanup, and detection techniques. Little attention has been paid to the contribution of prior steps in the determination process to overall laboratory sampling errors, though several publications demonstrate their practical importance. Consequently, the repeatability and reproducibility of the results are often reported based on the recovery tests alone. A few previous publications are cited in this paper which illustrate the magnitude of random errors derived from subsampling, comminution of analytical samples, and selection of small test portions. OBJECTIVES: We aim to call attention to the importance of considering all steps of laboratory sampling and analysis processes in calculating the combined uncertainty of results and realistic performance assessments of methods including their long-term intermediate precision. METHOD: Validation of laboratory sampling of large fruits is used to illustrate the recommended procedures, determination of their random error, and long-term method performance. RESULTS: The results indicate that subsampling, comminution, and selection of test portions can be major contributors to the combined uncertainty of results. CONCLUSIONS: All these steps should be considered in estimation of random variation (uncertainty) of measured residues. HIGHLIGHTS: Random error of laboratory sampling for pesticide residues. Mass reduction of large crop units. Internal quality control of laboratory operations.

Detection of Aflatoxins in Different Matrices and Food-Chain Positions.

Aflatoxins, produced mainly by filamentous fungi Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus parasiticus, are one of the most carcinogenic compounds that have adverse health effects on both humans and animals consuming contaminated food and feed, respectively. Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and aflatoxin B2 (AFB2) as well as aflatoxin G1(AFG1) and aflatoxin G2 (AFG2) occur in the contaminated foods and feed. In the case of dairy ruminants, after the consumption of feed contaminated with aflatoxins, aflatoxin metabolites [aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) and aflatoxin M2 (AFM2)] may appear in milk. Because of the health risk and the official maximum limits of aflatoxins, there is a need for application of fast and accurate testing methods. At present, there are several analytical methods applied in practice for determination of aflatoxins. The aim of this review is to provide a guide that summarizes worldwide aflatoxin regulations and analytical methods for determination of aflatoxins in different food and feed matrices, that helps in the decision to choose the most appropriate method that meets the practical requirements of fast and sensitive control of their contamination. Analytical options are outlined from the simplest and fastest methods with the smallest instrument requirements, through separation methods, to the latest hyphenated techniques.

Occurrence of Aflatoxin M1 in Raw Milk Marketed in Italy: Exposure Assessment and Risk Characterization.

The current study is based on the AFM1 contamination of milk determined from April 2013 to December 2018 in the framework of a self-control plan of six milk processing plants in Italy. These data - together with the consumption data of milk consumers - were evaluated and used for the calculation of the Estimated Daily Intake (EDI), the Hazard Index (HI), and the fraction of hepatocarcinoma cases (HCC) due to AFM1 exposure in different population groups. Altogether a total of 31,702 milk samples were analyzed, representing 556,413 tons of milk, which is an outstanding amount compared to published studies. The results indicate the monthly fluctuation of AFM1 levels through a period of nearly 6 years. The EDI of AFM1 in different population groups was in the range of 0.025-0.328 ng kg-1 body weight (bw) per day, based on the average consumption levels and weighted mean contamination of the milk in the study period. Considering average consumptions, in the groups of infants and toddlers, the HI calculation resulted in 1.64 and 1.4, respectively, while for older age groups, it was <1. The estimated fractions of HCC incidences attributable to the AFM1 intakes were 0.005 and 0.004 cases per 100,000 individuals in the 0-0.9 and 1-2.9-year age groups, respectively, and below 0.004 cases in the other age categories. The monthly average AFM1 contamination of tested milk consignments ranged between 7.19 and 22.53 ng kg-1. Although the results of this extensive investigation showed a low risk of HCC, the variability of climatic conditions throughout years that influence AFB1 contamination of feed and consequently AFM1 contamination of milk justifies their continuous monitoring and update of the risk assessment.

An effective self-control strategy for the reduction of aflatoxin M1 content in milk and to decrease the exposure of consumers.

The study reports the results of testing the sensitivity of an early warning sampling plan for detecting milk batches with high aflatoxin AFM1 concentration. The effectiveness of the method was investigated by the analysis of 9017 milk samples collected in Italian milk processing plants that applied control plans with different action limits (AL). For those milk processing plants where 30 ng kg-1 AL has been applied, the AFM1 contamination was significantly lower at or above the 95th percentile of the milk samples when compared with plants that used 40 ng kg-1 AL. The results show that the control plan can be used effectively for early warning of occurrence of high AFM1 contamination of milk and to carry out pro-active measures to limit the level of contamination. Estimation of dietary exposure was also carried out, based on the aflatoxin M1 content of the milk samples and on Italian food consumption data. Estimated Daily Intakes (EDI) and Hazard Indices (HI) were calculated for different age groups of the population. HIs show that no adverse effects are expected for the adult population, but in the case of children under age three, the approximate HI values were considerably higher. This underlines the importance of the careful monitoring and control of aflatoxin M1 in milk and dairy products.

Risk assessment of the cumulative acute exposure of Hungarian population to organophosphorus pesticide residues with regard to consumers of plant based foods.

Based on the Hungarian pesticide residues monitoring data of the last five years and the consumption data collected within a 3-day dietary record survey in 2009 (more than 2 million pesticide residue results and almost 5000, 0-101-year-old consumers 3 non-consecutive-day personal fruit and vegetable consumption data), the cumulative acute exposure of organophosphorus pesticide residues was evaluated. The relative potency factor approach was applied, with acephate chosen as index compound. According to our conservative calculation method, applying the measured residues only, the 99.95% of the 99th percentiles of calculated daily intakes was at or below 87 µg/kgbwday, indicating that the cumulative acute exposure of the whole Hungarian population (including all age classes) to organophosphorus compounds was not a health concern.

Analysis of industry-generated data. Part 2: Risk-based sampling plan for efficient self-control of aflatoxin M1 contamination in raw milk.

Aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) contamination in 21,969 milk samples taken in Italy during 2005-08 and 2010 provided the basis for designing an early warning self-control plan. Additionally, 4148 AFM1 data points from the mycotoxin crisis (2003-04) represented the worst case. No parametric function provided a good fit for the skewed and scattered AFM1 concentrations. The acceptable reference values, reflecting the combined uncertainty of AFM1 measured in consignments consisting of milk from one to six farms, ranged from 40 to 16.7 ng kg(-1), respectively. Asymmetric control charts with these reference values, 40 and 50 ng kg(-1) warning and action limits are recommended to assess immediately the distribution of AFM1 concentration in incoming consignments. The moving window method, presented as a worked example including 5 days with five samples/day, enabled verification of compliance of production with the legal limit in 98% of the consignments at a 94% probability level. The sampling plan developed assumes consecutive analyses of samples taken from individual farms, which makes early detection of contamination possible and also immediate corrective actions if the AFM1 concentration in a consignment exceeds the reference value. In the latter case different control plans with increased sampling frequency should be applied depending on the level and frequency of contamination. As aflatoxin B1 increases in feed at about the same time, therefore a coordinated sampling programme performed by the milk processing plants operating in a confined geographic area is more effective and economical then the individual ones. The applicability of the sample size calculation based on binomial theorem and the fast response rate resulting from the recommended sampling plan were verified by taking 1000-10,000 random samples with replacement from the experimental databases representing the normal, moderately and highly contaminated periods. The efficiency of the control plan could be substantially enhanced if the dairy farms used feed with a tolerable level of AFB1.

Limitations in the determination of maximum residue limits and highest residues of pesticides: Part I.

The pesticide usages are controlled by comparing residue concentrations in treated commodities to legally permitted maximum levels (MRLs) determined based on supervised trials designed to reflect likely maximum residues occurring in practice following authorised use. The number of trials available may significantly affect the accuracy of estimated maximum residues. We conducted a study with synthetic lognormal distributions with mean of 1 and standard deviations of 0.8 and 1.0, which reflect the residue distributions observed in practice. The likely residues in samples were modelled by drawing random samples of size 3, 5, 10 and 25 from the synthetic populations. The results indicate that the estimations of highest residues (HR), used for calculation of short-term intake, and the MRLs, serving as legal limits, are very uncertain based on 3-5 trials indicated by the calculated HR0.975/HR0.025 and MRL0.975/MRL0.025 ratios of 12 and 9, and 13 and 10, respectively, which question the suitability of such trials for the intended purpose. As the 95% range of HR and MRL rapidly decreases with number of trials, ideally ≥15 but minimum 6-8 trials should be used for estimation of HR and MRL according to the current typical practice of Codex Alimentarius.

Estimation of sampling uncertainty for pesticide residues in root vegetable crops.

The sampling uncertainty for pesticide residues in carrots, parsley leaves and selected medium size crops was estimated with simple random sampling by applying range statistics. The primary samples taken from treated fields consisted of individual carrots or a handful of parsley leaves. The samples were analysed with QUEChERs extraction method and LCMS/MS detection with practical LOQ of 0.001 mg/kg. The results indicate that the average sampling uncertainties estimated with simple random sampling and range statistics were practically the same. The confidence interval for the estimated sampling uncertainty decreased with the number of replicate samples taken from one lot and the number of lots sampled. The estimated relative ranges of sampling uncertainty are independent from the relative standard deviation of the primary samples. Consequently the conclusions drawn from these experiments are generally applicable. There is no optimum for sample size and number of lots to be tested for estimation of sampling uncertainty. Taking a minimum of 6 replicate samples from at least 8-12 lots is recommended to obtain a relative 95% range of sampling uncertainty within 50%. The cost of sampling/analyses, the consequences of wrong decision should also be taken into account when a sampling plan is prepared.