Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral).

The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.

Vernacular Taxonomy, Cultural and Ethnopharmacological Applications of Avian and Mammalian Species in the Vicinity of Ayubia National Park, Himalayan Region.

Numerous investigations on plant ethnomedicinal applications have been conducted; however, knowledge about the medicinal use of wild animals is still limited. This present study is the second on the medicinal and cultural meaning of avian and mammalian species used by the population in the surrounding area of the Ayubia National Park, KPK, Pakistan. Interviews and meetings were compiled from the participants (N = 182) of the study area. The relative frequency of citation, fidelity level, relative popularity level, and rank order priority indices were applied to analyze the information. Overall, 137 species of wild avian and mammalian species were documented. Of these, 18 avian and 14 mammalian species were utilized to treat different diseases. The present research showed noteworthy ethno-ornithological and ethno-mammalogical knowledge of local people and their connection with fauna, which might be useful in the sustainable utilization of the biological diversity of the Ayubia National Park, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Furthermore, in vivo and/or in vitro examination of the pharmacological activities of species with the highest fidelity level (FL%) as well as frequency of mention (FM) might be important for investigations on faunal-based new drugs.

Species distribution modelling of Monotheca buxifolia (Falc.) A. DC.: Present distribution and impacts of potential climate change.

Species distribution modelling (SDM) is an important tool to examine the possible change in the population range and/or niche-shift under current environment and predicted climate change. Monotheca buxifolia is an economically and ecologically important tree species inhabiting Pakistan and Afghanistan in dense patches, and species range is contracting rapidly. This study hypothesize that predicted climate change might remarkably influence the existing distribution pattern of M. buxifolia in the study area. A total of 75 occurrence locations were identified comprising M. buxifolia as a dominant tree species. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was utilized to perform the SDM under current (the 1970s-2000s) and two future climate change scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways: SSPs 245 and 585) of two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). The optimal model settings were assessed, and simulation precision was assessed by examining the partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (pAUC-ROC). The results showed that out of 39 considered bio-climatic, topographic, edaphic, and remote sensing variables which were utilized in the preliminary model, 6 variables including precipitation of warmest quarter, topographic diversity, global human modification of terrestrial land, normalized difference vegetation index, isothermality, and elevation (in order) were the most influential drivers, and utilized in all reduced SDMs. A high predictive performance (pAUC-ROC; >0.9) of all the considered SDMs was recorded. A total of about 67,684 km2 of geographical area was predicted as suitable habitat (p > 0.8) for M. buxifolia, and Pakistan is the leading country (with about 54,975 km2 of suitable land area) under the current climate scenario. Overall, the existing distribution of the tree species in the study area might face considerable loss (i.e. rate of change %; -27 to -107) in future, and simultaneously a northward (high elevation) niche shift is predicted for all the considered future climate change scenarios. Hence, development and implementation of a coordinated conservation program is required on priority basis to save the tree species in its native geographic range.

Ethnobotanical study of Mandi Ahmad Abad, District Okara, Pakistan.

This study hypothesized that native people have unique traditional knowledge of plant resources in the rural areas and basic objective was the documentation of this valuable inheritance. Ethnobotanical data was collected from a remote rural area of Mandi Ahmad Abad, Union council number NA-144 Tehsil Depalpur District Okara, Pakistan. A total of 94 informants were randomly interviewed to collect data about local names of plant species, mode of administration, recipes and ailments, and ethnobotanical uses through semi-structured questionnaire, interviews and group discussion methods. The collected data was statistically analyzed by calculating use value (UV), frequency of citation (FC), relative frequency of citation (RFC), factor of informant consensus (FIC), family importance value, and relative importance (RI). This study is also compared with ethnobotanical literature by using Jaccard's index (JI) for similarity analysis. A total of 126 species belonging to 52 families were documented. The Poaceae (13spp.), Leguminosae (12spp.), Solanaceae (10spp.) and Cucurbitaceae (10spp.) were dominant families. Highest used value (UV = 0.22) was obtained for Azadirachta indica. The minimum used value (UV) was showed by Alhagi maurorum, Eclipta prostrata, Hibiscus rosa-sinensis, Solanum virginianum and Trianthema potulacastrum (UV = 0.01). Hepatitis, stomach ulcer, bowel disorders, urinary problems, psoriasis, cancer, and leucoderma were the most treated ailments with ICF value of 1, followed by leucorrhea (ICF: 0.89), and vomiting (ICF: 0.86). The highest Jaccard's similarity index value (JI = 0.329) showed that plant species reported in our study was more similar with Arid regions of Northern Punjab, Pakistan. This novel ethnobotanical report concluded that traditional knowledge about use of medicinal plants is decreasing due to allopathic medicines. Immediate steps should be taken for conservation and documentation of traditional knowledge of plants especially those having medicinal properties.

Gathered Wild Food Plants among Diverse Religious Groups in Jhelum District, Punjab, Pakistan.

Recent ethnobotanical studies have raised the hypothesis that religious affiliation can, in certain circumstances, influence the evolution of the use of wild food plants, given that it shapes kinship relations and vertical transmission of traditional/local environmental knowledge. The local population living in Jhelum District, Punjab, Pakistan comprises very diverse religious and linguistic groups. A field study about the uses of wild food plants was conducted in the district. This field survey included 120 semi-structured interviews in 27 villages, focusing on six religious groups (Sunni and Shia Muslims, Christians, Hindus, Sikhs, and Ahmadis). We documented a total of 77 wild food plants and one mushroom species which were used by the local population mainly as cooked vegetables and raw snacks. The cross-religious comparison among six groups showed a high homogeneity of use among two Muslim groups (Shias and Sunnis), while the other four religious groups showed less extensive, yet diverse uses, staying within the variety of taxa used by Islamic groups. No specific plant cultural markers (i.e., plants gathered only by one community) could be identified, although there were a limited number of group-specific uses of the shared plants. Moreover, the field study showed erosion of the knowledge among the non-Muslim groups, which were more engaged in urban occupations and possibly underwent stronger cultural adaption to a modern lifestyle. The recorded traditional knowledge could be used to guide future development programs aimed at fostering food security and the valorization of the local bio-cultural heritage.

Correction: Descriptive study of plant resources in the context of the ethnomedicinal relevance of indigenous flora: A case study from Toli Peer National Park, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171896.].