ABSTRACT
Expansion of urban areas and alteration of natural land cover exacerbate the local climate change. To find out the effect of land cover changes on the local climate, in this study, the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) concept was utilized to detect urban morphology in Tehran Metropolis. LCZ and Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be identified and classified based on available remote sensing products. Firstly, LCZ maps of Tehran metropolis were extracted using Landsat imagery, and secondly, relationships between LCZ and LST were explored for three years (1990, 2004, and 2018). We found that Tehran urban structure has 13 LCZs based on imagery from Landsat 5 and 14 LCZs based on images for Landsat 7 and 8. Overall accuracy and kappa coefficient were estimated at 62% and 0.60, respectively. Results show that built-up classes including compact high-rise, compact mid-rise, and heavy industrial areas tended to increase the surface temperature, while except for bare land, all other land cover types tended to decrease the surface temperature. The findings also suggest that complementary optical and thermal remote sensing data, such as the combination of OLI with TIRS imageries, were sufficient for supervised LCZ and LST classification in a semi-arid region of Tehran metropolis.
ABSTRACT
Changes in land cover (LC) can alter the basin hydrology by affecting the evaporation, infiltration, and surface and subsurface flow processes, and ultimately affect river water quantity and quality. This study aimed to monitor and predict the LC composition of a major, transboundary basin contributing to the Caspian Sea, the Aras River Basin (ARB). To this end, four LC maps of ARB corresponding to the years 1984, 2000, 2010, and 2017 were generated using Landsat satellite imagery from Armenia and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The LC gains and losses, net changes, exchanges, and the spatial trend of changes over 33 years (1984-2017) were investigated. The most important drivers of these changes and the most accurate LC transformation scenarios were identified, and a land change modeler (LCM) was applied to predict the LC change for the years 2027 and 2037. Validation results showed that LCM, with a Kappa index higher than 81%, is appropriate for predicting LC changes in the study area. The LC changes observed in the past indicate significant anthropogenic impacts on the basin, mainly by constructing new reservoir dams and expanding agriculture and urban areas, which are the major water-consuming sectors. Results show that over the past 33 years, agricultural areas have grown by more than 57% from 1984 to 2017 in the study area. Results also indicate that the given similar anthropogenic activities will keep on continuing in the ARB, and agricultural areas will increase by 2% from 2017 to 2027, and by another 1% from 2027 to 2037. Results of this study can support transboundary decision-making processes to analyze potential adverse impacts following past policies with neighboring countries that share the same water resources.