Opportunistic screening models for high-risk men and women to detect diastolic dysfunction and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in the community.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of undetected left ventricular diastolic dysfunction is high, especially in the elderly with comorbidities. Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction is a prognostic indicator of heart failure, in particularly of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and of future cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Therefore we aimed to develop sex-specific diagnostic models to enable the early identification of men and women at high-risk of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction with or without symptoms of heart failure who require more aggressive preventative strategies. DESIGN: Individual patient data from four primary care heart failure-screening studies were analysed (1371 participants, excluding patients classified as heart failure and left ventricular ejection fraction <50%). METHODS: Eleven candidate predictors were entered into logistic regression models to be associated with the presence of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction/heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in men and women separately. Internal-external cross-validation was performed to develop and validate the models. RESULTS: Increased age and ß-blocker therapy remained as predictors in both the models for men and women. The model for men additionally consisted of increased body mass index, moderate to severe shortness of breath, increased pulse pressure and history of ischaemic heart disease. The models performed moderately and similarly well in men (c-statistics range 0.60-0.75) and women (c-statistics range 0.51-0.76) and the performance improved significantly following the addition of N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (c-statistics range 0.61-0.80 in women and 0.68-0.80 in men). CONCLUSIONS: We provide an easy-to-use screening tool for use in the community, which can improve the early detection of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction/heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in high-risk men and women and optimise tailoring of preventive interventions.

Opportunistic screening for heart failure with natriuretic peptides in patients with atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis of individual participant data of four screening studies.

OBJECTIVE: Heart failure (HF) often coexists in atrial fibrillation (AF) but is frequently unrecognised due to overlapping symptomatology. Furthermore, AF can cause elevated natriuretic peptide levels, impairing its diagnostic value for HF detection. We aimed to assess the prevalence of previously unknown HF in community-dwelling patients with AF, and to determine the diagnostic value of the amino-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) for HF screening in patients with AF. METHODS: Individual participant data from four HF-screening studies in older community-dwelling persons were combined. Presence or absence of HF was in each study established by an expert panel following the criteria of the European Society of Cardiology. We performed a two-stage patient-level meta-analysis to calculate traditional diagnostic indices. RESULTS: Of the 1941 individuals included in the four studies, 196 (10.1%) had AF at baseline. HF was uncovered in 83 (43%) of these 196 patients with AF, versus 381 (19.7%) in those without AF at baseline. Median NTproBNP levels of patients with AF with and without HF were 744 pg/mL and 211 pg/mL, respectively. At the cut-point of 125 pg/mL, sensitivity was 93%, specificity 35%, and positive and negative predictive values 51% and 86%, respectively. Only 23% of all patients with AF had an NTproBNP level below the 125 pg/mL cut-point, with still a 13% prevalence of HF in this group. CONCLUSIONS: With a prevalence of nearly 50%, unrecognised HF is common among community-dwelling patients with AF. Given the high prior change, natriuretic peptides are diagnostically not helpful, and straightforward echocardiography seems to be the preferred strategy for HF screening in patients with AF.

Efficient selective screening for heart failure in elderly men and women from the community: A diagnostic individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background Prevalence of undetected heart failure in older individuals is high in the community, with patients being at increased risk of morbidity and mortality due to the chronic and progressive nature of this complex syndrome. An essential, yet currently unavailable, strategy to pre-select candidates eligible for echocardiography to confirm or exclude heart failure would identify patients earlier, enable targeted interventions and prevent disease progression. The aim of this study was therefore to develop and validate such a model that can be implemented clinically. Methods and results Individual patient data from four primary care screening studies were analysed. From 1941 participants >60 years old, 462 were diagnosed with heart failure, according to criteria of the European Society of Cardiology heart failure guidelines. Prediction models were developed in each cohort followed by cross-validation, omitting each of the four cohorts in turn. The model consisted of five independent predictors; age, history of ischaemic heart disease, exercise-related shortness of breath, body mass index and a laterally displaced/broadened apex beat, with no significant interaction with sex. The c-statistic ranged from 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64-0.76) to 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.87) at cross-validation and the calibration was reasonable with Observed/Expected ratios ranging from 0.86 to 1.15. The clinical model improved with the addition of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide with the c-statistic increasing from 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.81) to 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.92) at cross-validation. Conclusion Easily obtainable patient characteristics can select older men and women from the community who are candidates for echocardiography to confirm or refute heart failure.