Accounting for unobserved population dynamics and aging error in close-kin mark-recapture assessments.

Obtaining robust estimates of population abundance is a central challenge hindering the conservation and management of many threatened and exploited species. Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a genetics-based approach that has strong potential to improve the monitoring of data-limited species by enabling estimates of abundance, survival, and other parameters for populations that are challenging to assess. However, CKMR models have received limited sensitivity testing under realistic population dynamics and sampling scenarios, impeding the application of the method in population monitoring programs and stock assessments. Here, we use individual-based simulation to examine how unmodeled population dynamics and aging uncertainty affect the accuracy and precision of CKMR parameter estimates under different sampling strategies. We then present adapted models that correct the biases that arise from model misspecification. Our results demonstrate that a simple base-case CKMR model produces robust estimates of population abundance with stable populations that breed annually; however, if a population trend or non-annual breeding dynamics are present, or if year-specific estimates of abundance are desired, a more complex CKMR model must be constructed. In addition, we show that CKMR can generate reliable abundance estimates for adults from a variety of sampling strategies, including juvenile-focused sampling where adults are never directly observed (and aging error is minimal). Finally, we apply a CKMR model that has been adapted for population growth and intermittent breeding to two decades of genetic data from juvenile lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris) in Bimini, Bahamas, to demonstrate how application of CKMR to samples drawn solely from juveniles can contribute to monitoring efforts for highly mobile populations. Overall, this study expands our understanding of the biological factors and sampling decisions that cause bias in CKMR models, identifies key areas for future inquiry, and provides recommendations that can aid biologists in planning and implementing an effective CKMR study, particularly for long-lived data-limited species.

A global perspective on the trophic geography of sharks.

Sharks are a diverse group of mobile predators that forage across varied spatial scales and have the potential to influence food web dynamics. The ecological consequences of recent declines in shark biomass may extend across broader geographic ranges if shark taxa display common behavioural traits. By tracking the original site of photosynthetic fixation of carbon atoms that were ultimately assimilated into muscle tissues of 5,394 sharks from 114 species, we identify globally consistent biogeographic traits in trophic interactions between sharks found in different habitats. We show that populations of shelf-dwelling sharks derive a substantial proportion of their carbon from regional pelagic sources, but contain individuals that forage within additional isotopically diverse local food webs, such as those supported by terrestrial plant sources, benthic production and macrophytes. In contrast, oceanic sharks seem to use carbon derived from between 30° and 50° of latitude. Global-scale compilations of stable isotope data combined with biogeochemical modelling generate hypotheses regarding animal behaviours that can be tested with other methodological approaches.

An analytical approach to sparse telemetry data.

Horizontal behavior of highly migratory marine species is difficult to decipher because animals are wide-ranging, spend minimal time at the ocean surface, and utilize remote habitats. Satellite telemetry enables researchers to track individual movements, but population level inferences are rare due to data limitations that result from difficulty of capture and sporadic tag reporting. We introduce a Bayesian modeling framework to address population level questions with satellite telemetry data when data are sparse. We also outline an approach for identifying informative variables for use within the model. We tested our modeling approach using a large telemetry dataset for Shortfin Makos (Isurus oxyrinchus), which allowed us to assess the effects of various degrees of data paucity. First, a permuted Random Forest analysis is implemented to determine which variables are most informative. Next, a generalized additive mixed model is used to help define the relationship of each remaining variable with the response variable. Using jags and rjags for the analysis of Bayesian hierarchical models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, we then developed a movement model to generate parameter estimates for each of the variables of interest. By randomly reducing the tagging dataset by 25, 50, 75, and 90 percent and recalculating the parameter estimates, we demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian approach can be applied in data-limited situations. We also demonstrate how two commonly used linear mixed models with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) can be similarly applied. Additionally, we simulate data from known parameter values to test each model's ability to recapture those values. Despite performing similarly, we advocate using the Bayesian over the MLE approach due to the ability for later studies to easily utilize results of past study to inform working models, and the ability to use prior knowledge via informed priors in systems where such information is available.

An Introduction to Modelling Abundance and Life History Parameters in Shark Populations.

Elasmobranchs play critically important ecological roles throughout the world's oceans, yet in many cases, their slow life histories and interactions with fisheries makes them particularly susceptible to exploitation. Management for these species requires robust scientific input, and mathematical models are the backbone of science-based management. In this chapter, we provide an introductory overview of the use of mathematical models to estimate shark abundance. First, we discuss life history models that are used to understand the basic biology of elasmobranchs. Second, we cover population dynamics models, which are used to make inferences regarding population trend, size, and risk of extinction. Finally, we provide examples of applied models used to assess the status of elasmobranchs in the Northeast Pacific Ocean to guide management for these species. This chapter is not a comprehensive review of quantitative methods, but rather introduces various mathematical tools in fisheries management, with a focus on shark management in the Northeast Pacific Ocean.