Future Possible Changes in Medically Underserved Areas in Japan: A Geographic Information System-Based Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: A decrease in populations could affect healthcare access and systems, particularly in medically underserved areas (MUAs) where depopulation is becoming more prevalent. This study aimed to simulate the future population and land areas of MUAs in Japan. METHODS: This study covered 380,948 1 km meshes, 87,942 clinics, and 8354 hospitals throughout Japan as of 2020. The areas outside a 4 km radius of medical institutions were considered as MUAs, based on the measure of areas in the current Japanese Medical Care Act. Based on the population estimate for a 1 km mesh, the population of mesh numbers of MUAs was predicted for every 10 years from 2020 to 2050 using geographic information system analysis. If the population within a 4 km radius from a medical institution fell below 1000, the institution was operationally assumed to be closed. RESULTS: The number of MUAs was predicted to decrease from 964,310 (0.77% of the total Japanese population) in 2020 to 763,410 (0.75%) by 2050. By 2050, 48,105 meshes (13% of the total meshes in Japan) were predicted to be new MUAs, indicating a 31% increase in MUAs from 2020 to 2050. By 2050, 1601 medical institutions were tentatively estimated to be in close proximity. CONCLUSIONS: In Japan, the population of MUAs will decrease, while the land area of MUAs will increase. Such changes may reform rural healthcare policy and systems.

Working hours of full-time hospital physicians in Japan: a cross-sectional nationwide survey.

BACKGROUND: The culture of excessively long overtime work in Japan has not been recently addressed. New legislation on working hours, including a limitation on maximum overtime work for physicians, will be enforced in 2024. This study was performed to elucidate the working conditions of full-time hospital physicians and discuss various policy implications. METHODS: A facility survey and a physician survey regarding physicians' working conditions were conducted in July 2022. The facility survey was sent to all hospitals in Japan, and the physician survey was sent to all physicians working at half of the hospitals. The physicians were asked to report their working hours from 11 to 17 July 2022. In addition to descriptive statistics, a multivariate logistic regression analysis on the factors that lead to long working hours was conducted. RESULTS: In total, 11,466 full-time hospital physicians were included in the analysis. Full-time hospital physicians worked 50.1 h per week. They spent 45.6 h (90.9%) at the main hospital and 4.6 h (9.1%) performing side work. They spent 43.8 h (87.5%) on clinical work and 6.3 h (12.5%) on activities outside clinical work, such as research, teaching, and other activities. Neurosurgeons worked the longest hours, followed by surgeons and emergency medicine physicians. In total, 20.4% of physicians were estimated to exceed the annual overtime limit of 960 h, and 3.9% were estimated to exceed the limit of 1860 h. A total of 13.3% and 2.0% exceeded this level only at their primary hospital, after excluding hours performing side work. Logistic regression analysis showed that male, younger age, working at a university hospital, working in clinical areas of practice with long working hours, and undergoing specialty training were associated with long working hours after controlling for other factors. CONCLUSIONS: With the approaching application of overtime regulations to physicians, a certain reduction in working hours has been observed. However, many physicians still work longer hours than the designated upper limit of overtime. Work reform must be further promoted by streamlining work and task-shifting while securing the functions of university hospitals such as research, education, and supporting healthcare in communities.

Factors associated with regional retention of physicians: a cross-sectional online survey of medical students and graduates in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Physician shortage and maldistribution is an urgent health policy issue requiring resolution. Determination of factors associated with regional retention and development of effective policy interventions will help to solve this issue. The purpose of the present study was to identify factors associated with regional retention and discuss their policy implications. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey from February to March of 2022 for graduates from regional quotas (special quotas for medical schools to select students engaged in community medicine) and Jichi Medical University (JMU) and students at 10 medical schools including JMU. Completed surveys were obtained from 375 graduates and 1153 students. Questions included intention to continue to work in their home prefecture in the future, as well as background information and potential factors associated with regional retention. In the analyses, regional quotas and JMU were referred to as community medicine-oriented programs and schools (CMPS). We performed logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with regional retention. RESULTS: Among the students, scholarship-bonded obligatory service, satisfaction with current life, intention to belong to ikyoku (a traditional physician allocation/training system in Japanese medical schools), and interest in general practice/family medicine were significantly positively associated with regional retention. Among the graduates, satisfaction with training environment, intention to belong to ikyoku, and recommending their program to high school students were significantly positively associated with regional retention. For students of CMPS, satisfaction with the career development program was positively associated with future regional retention. For graduates, this association was observed only in the crude analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to known factors such as interest in general practice/family medicine, intention to belong to ikyoku had a substantial impact on regional retention. The present results suggest that the career support system represented by ikyoku as well as a career development program are of potential importance for increasing regional retention through the mechanisms of a sense of belonging and a life-long education system. These findings provide useful information for the development of further policy interventions that interweave traditional and new systems to maximize their effectiveness.

The Attributes of Physicians Assigned to Rural Clinics Designated for Areas without Physicians in Japan.

In Japan, there are rural clinics designated for areas without physicians to ensure the availability of medical care for rural area residents. The purpose of this study was to clarify the attributes of physicians working in the rural clinics. Using the 2018 Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare data in Japan, we compared the attributes and board certifications of physicians in rural clinics with those of physicians in other clinics. The age group with the highest percentage of physicians was the over 70 group (16%) and the early 30s group (15%) at rural clinics; however, the highest percentage of physicians at other clinics was the 70 over group (20%) and the early 60s group (16%). The number of physicians working in the internal medicine field at rural clinics was 550 (89%). There were 147 (27%) board-certified physicians in that field. Among them, the number of board certifications in internal medicine, surgery, and other than internal medicine or surgery were 79 (54%), 17 (12%), and 51 (35%), respectively. The proportion of board-certified surgery physicians within the internal medicine field in rural clinics was significantly higher than in other clinics (5%). In rural clinics, the age distribution of physicians was different from that in other clinics, and many of the physicians worked in the internal medicine field, but some of them seemed to have a mismatch between their board-certifications and their fields of practice. Further studies are necessary to clarify what the mismatches mean in rural practice.

Increased care-need in older long-term care insurance users after the 2018 Japan Floods: a retrospective cohort study based on the Japanese long-term care insurance claims.

BACKGROUND: Level of care-need (LOC) is an indicator of elderly person's disability level and is officially used to determine the care services provided in Japan's long-term care insurance (LTCI) system. The 2018 Japan Floods, which struck western Japan in July 2018, were the country's second largest water disaster. This study determined the extent to which the disaster affected the LOC of victims and compared it with that of non-victims. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study, based on the Japanese long-term care insurance claims from two months before (May 2018) to five months after the disaster (December 2018) in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures, which were the most severely damaged areas in the country. A code indicating victim status, certified by a residential municipality, was used to distinguish between victims and non-victims. Those aged 64 years or younger, those who had the most severe LOC before the disaster, and those whose LOC increased even before the disaster were excluded. The primary endpoint was the augmentation of pre-disaster LOC after the disaster, which was evaluated using the survival time analysis. Age, gender, and type of care service were used as covariates. RESULTS: Of the total 193,723 participants, 1,407 (0.7%) were certified disaster victims. Five months after the disaster, 135 (9.6%) of victims and 14,817 (7.7%) of non-victims experienced the rise of LOC. The victim group was significantly more likely to experience an augmentation of LOC than the non-victim group (adjusted hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.45). CONCLUSIONS: Older people who were affected by the disaster needed more care than before and the degree of care-need increase was substantially more than non-victims. The result suggests that natural disasters generate more demand for care services among the older people, and incur more resources and cost for society than before.

How the 2018 Japan Floods Impacted Nursing Home Admissions for Older Persons: A Longitudinal Study Using the Long-Term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database.

OBJECTIVES: As disasters become more frequent because of global warming, countries across the world are seeking ways to protect vulnerable older populations. Although these conditions may increase nursing home admission (NHA) rates for older persons, we know of no studies that have directly tested this hypothesis. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed data from long-term care insurance (LTCI) users in 3 Japanese prefectures that incurred heavy damage from the 2018 Japan Floods, which is the largest recorded flooding disaster in national history. Specifically, we extracted NHA data from the LTCI comprehensive database, both for disaster-affected and unaffected individuals. METHODS: We employed the Cox proportional hazards model to calculate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for NHAs within a 6-month period following the 2018 Japan Floods, with adjustments for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Of the 187,861 individuals who used LTCI services during the investigated period, we identified 2156 (1.1%) as disaster affected. The HR for NHA was significantly higher for disaster-affected (vs unaffected) individuals (adjusted HR 3.23: 95% CI 2.88‒3.64), and also higher than the HRs for older age (90-94 years vs 65-69 years: 2.29, CI 1.93‒2.70), cognitive impairment (severe impairment vs normal: 1.40, CI 1.25‒1.57), and physical function (bedridden vs independent: 2.27, CI 1.83‒2.70). According to our subgroup analyses, the adjusted HR for disaster-affected individuals unable to feed themselves was 6.00 (CI 3.68‒9.79), with a significant interaction between the 2 variables (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Natural disasters increase the risk of NHA for older persons, especially those who are unable to feed themselves. Health care providers and policymakers should understand and prepare for this emerging risk factor.

Follow up of Kawasaki disease based on nationwide survey data in Japan: Mortality among those with a history of Kawasaki disease in Japan: Results of a 30-year follow up: Mortality among those with a history of Kawasaki disease in Japan: Results of a 30-year follow up.

BACKGROUND: The long-term prognosis of those with a history of Kawasaki disease (KD) is still unknown. METHODS: Using a permanent registry system in Japan (koseki), 6,576 persons with a history of KD were followed up. The average follow-up period was 30 years. The endpoint was death. RESULTS: With a 99.5% follow-up rate, 68 deaths (48 males and 20 females) were observed. The overall standardized mortality ratio, of which reference was vital statistics in Japan, was not elevated. However, the observation according to the presence or absence of cardiac sequelae showed that the standardized mortality ratio for those with cardiac sequelae significantly elevated. Nine persons, all of whom were males, died of KD (including those cases where KD was suspected), but all deaths occurred in individuals who were under 30 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed the long-term prognosis for KD, but almost all participants were younger than 40 years. Continuing follow up of this cohort is required to clarify whether a history of KD relates to the development of atherosclerosis when participants become middle aged or older.

Geographic distribution of family physicians in Japan and the USA: a cross-sectional comparative study.

INTRODUCTION: Solutions for geographic maldistribution of physicians is challenging around the world, but primary care specialists are expected to resolve this issue. This study compares the geographic distribution of family physicians in Japan and the USA, both of which are developed countries without a major system for physician allocation by the public sector; however, the two countries differ greatly in the maturity of family medicine (ie length of its history as part of the healthcare system and the population of qualified family medicine experts). METHODS: This cross-sectional comparative study used publicly available online databases for Japan in 2018 and 2017 in the USA. The municipalities in Japan and counties in the USA were divided into quintile groups according to population density. The number of family physicians per unit population in each group of areas was calculated, and was evaluated with a residual analysis. The geographic distribution of all physicians in Japan was simulated assuming that the proportion of family physicians among all physicians in Japan (0.16%) was increased to match that in the USA (11.8%). RESULTS: Of 320 084 physicians in Japan and 899 244 in the USA, 519 (77.2%) family physicians in Japan and 105 999 (100%) in the USA were included. The distribution of family physicians in Japan was noticeably shifted to areas with the lowest population density. In contrast, family physicians in the USA were distributed equally across areas. The distribution of physicians of other specialties (general internists, pediatricians, surgeons and obstetricians/gynecologists) was shifted heavily to areas with the highest population densities in both countries. The simulation analysis showed the geographic maldistribution of the total number of physicians improved substantially if the proportion of family physicians in Japan is increased to match that in the USA. CONCLUSION: The distribution of family physicians is more equitable than that of other medical specialists; however, an immature family medicine system can lead to an aggregation of family physicians in rural areas. This aggregation supports equity due to the broader scope of practice required by family physicians in rural areas. In countries where family medicine has not yet matured as a specialty, provided that the equitable aggregation of family physicians in rural areas can be maintained, increasing the number of family physicians as a proportion of the total number of physicians may improve the geographic maldistribution of the total number of physicians.

Impact of the 2018 Japan Floods on benzodiazepine use: a longitudinal analysis based on the National Database of Health Insurance Claims.

PURPOSE: Natural disaster has an impact on mental health. The 2018 Japan Floods, which took place in July 2018 were one of the largest water disasters in Japan's recorded history. We aimed to evaluate the change in the number of benzodiazepine prescriptions by physicians before and after the disaster. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study based on the National Database of Health Insurance Claims was conducted in the flood-stricken areas between July 2017 and June 2019. The subjects were divided between victims and non-victims according to certification by local governments. Members of both groups were then categorized into three groups based on their pre-flood use of benzodiazepines: non-user, occasional user, and continuous user. Difference-in-differences (DID) analysis with a logistic regression model was conducted to estimate the effect of the disaster among victims by comparing the occurrence of benzodiazepine prescriptions before and after the disaster. RESULTS: Of 5,000,129 people enrolled, 31,235 were victims. Among all participants, the mean prescription rate for benzodiazepines in victims before the disaster (11.3%) increased to 11.8% after the disaster, while that in non-victims (8.3%) decreased to 7.9%. The DID analysis revealed that benzodiazepine prescription among victims significantly increased immediately after the disaster (adjusted ratio of odds ratios (ROR) 1.07: 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.11), and the effect of the disaster persisted even 1 year after the disaster (adjusted ROR 1.2: 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.24). CONCLUSION: The flood increased the number of benzodiazepines prescriptions among victims, and the effect persisted for at least 1 year.

Impact of the 2018 Japan Floods on prescriptions for migraine: A longitudinal analysis using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of the 2018 Japan Floods, one of the largest water disasters in Japan, on the number of prescriptions for triptans and ergotamine (acute treatment). BACKGROUND: Natural disasters frequently occur worldwide and may cause psychological stress-related diseases. Acute migraine attacks can be triggered by psychological stress. Disaster victims are likely to experience tremendous psychological stress; however, the relationship between natural disasters and migraine attacks is not well investigated. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims in the hardest-hit areas of the disaster 1 year before and after the disaster. We included people between the ages of 15 and 64 years. Those who had a victim code that was certificated by a local government were assigned to the victim group, and others to the nonvictim group. For those who were not prescribed acute treatment before the disaster (i.e., group without previous acute treatment), the cumulative incidence of new prescriptions for acute treatment at 12 months of follow-up was calculated and compared between victims and nonvictims with survival analysis. RESULTS: Of 3,475,515 people aged 15 to 64 years enrolled in the study, 16,103 (0.46%) were assigned to the victim group. In the group without previous acute treatment, 111 (0.70%) of 15,933 victims and 14,626 (0.43%) of 3,431,423 nonvictims were newly prescribed acute treatment after the disaster, and new prescriptions for acute treatment were significantly more likely to occur in victims than in nonvictims (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.39-2.02). CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods increased the number of prescriptions for acute migraine medications among victims, suggesting that acute migraine attacks occurred more frequently after a natural disaster.

Discontinuation of long-term care among persons affected by the 2018 Japan Floods: a longitudinal study using the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database.

BACKGROUND: Most older people with disabilities or illnesses continue to use long-term care (LTC) services for the rest of their lives. However, disasters can cause a discontinuation of LTC services, which usually means tragic outcomes of affected persons. In view of the recent progression of population aging and the increase in natural disasters, this study focuses on the impact of disasters on older people's discontinuation of LTC services, and those more risk of such discontinuation than others. However, current evidence is scarce. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 259,081 subjects, 2,762 of whom had been affected by disaster and 256,319 who had not been affected during the 2018 Japan Floods. The sample in the three most disaster-affected prefectures was drawn from the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database and included older people certified with care-need level. The observation period was two months before the disaster and five months after it. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) of municipality-certified subjects affected by the disaster versus those who were not. Subgroup analyses were conducted for categories of individual-, facility- and region-associated factors. RESULTS: Affected persons were twice as likely to discontinue LTC services than those who were not affected (adjusted HR, 2.06 95% CI, 1.91-2.23). 34% of affected persons whose facilities were closed discontinued their LTC services at five months after the disaster. A subgroup analysis showed that the risk of discontinuing LTC services for affected persons compared to those who were not affected in the relatively younger subgroup (age < 80: adjusted HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.20-2.96 vs. age ≥ 80 : 1.91; 1.75-2.10), and the subgroup requiring a lower level of care (low: 3.16; 2.74-3.66 vs. high: 1.71; 1.50-1.96) were more likely to discontinue than the older and higher care level subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: A natural disaster has a significant effect on the older people's discontinuation of LTC services. The discontinuations are supposedly caused by affected persons' death, hospitalization, forced relocation of individuals, or the service provider's incapacity. Accordingly, it is important to recognize the risk of disasters and take measures to avoid discontinuation to protect older persons' quality of life.

The 2018 Japan Floods Increased Prescriptions of Antidementia Drugs Among Disaster Victims.

OBJECTIVES: Natural disasters can impair the cognitive function of older victims. However, it is unknown whether such natural disasters affect drug treatment for dementia. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods, the second largest water-related disaster in Japan, on the prescriptions of antidementia drugs (ADD) for older people (≥65 years of age). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Prescription data in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures for 1 year before and after the disaster were extracted from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims. From the database, we selected 1,710,119 people age 65 years or over as the study participants. METHODS: In logistic regression models, sex- and age-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of victims for new ADD prescriptions were calculated. Trends for the ORs before and after the disaster were evaluated using difference-in-difference models. Whether or not there was an increase in the trend for ADD prescriptions (daily dose or number of drug types) was also evaluated among continuous ADD users. RESULTS: Among 1,710,119 participants, 15,994 (0.9%) were recorded as a disaster-victims, and 112,289 (6.6%) were prescribed ADD. Among original nonusers, after the disaster, victims were more likely to start using ADD than nonvictims who had not been affected [adjusted OR = 1.33 (95% CI 1.16-1.52)]. Among continuous users, an increasing trend for ADD prescriptions was more often observed for victims than nonvictims [1.61 (1.13-2.31)]. This effect was robust even after the predisaster trend of ADD use was taken into consideration. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The disaster increased the number of users of antidementia medications. The findings suggest the need for evidence-based recommendations to address cognitive impairment among disaster victims, which is lacking in current clinical and disaster guidelines worldwide.

Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many deaths, especially among vulnerable elderly. Such affected elderly would need long-term care due to the various health problems caused by the disaster. A Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system provides care services in Japan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on LTCI costs and service utilization. METHODS: The participants of this retrospective cohort study were all verified persons utilizing LTCI services in Hiroshima, Okayama and Ehime prefectures. The observation period was from 2 months before to 6 months after the disaster. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to examine the association between disaster status (victims or non-victims) and the monthly total costs of LTCI service (with gamma-distribution/log-link) by residential environment (home or facility). Among home residents, we also examined each service utilization (home-based service, short-stay service and facility service), using the GEEs. After the GEEs, we estimated Average Marginal Effects (AME) over all observation periods by months as the attributable disaster effect. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 279,578. There were 3024 flood victims. The disaster was associated with significantly higher total costs. The AME for home residents at 2 months after was $214 (Standard Error (SE): 12, p < 0.001), which was the highest through the observation period. Among facility residents, the AME immediately after the disaster increased by up to $850 (SE: 29, p < 0.001). The service utilization among home residents showed a different trend for each service. The AME of home-based services decreased by up to - 15.2% (SE:1.3, p < 0.001). The AME for short-stay service increased by up to 8.2% (SE: 0.9, p < 0.001) and the AME for facility service increased by up to 7.4% (SE: 0.7, p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods caused an increase in LTCI costs and the utilization of short-stay and facility services, and a decrease in utilization of home-based services.

The use of information and communication technology in Japanese rural clinics.

High-speed information and communication technology (ICT) networks stretch all over Japan. However, their utility in facilitating rural healthcare remains uncharacterized. A nationwide questionnaire survey was sent by mail to 1,018 rural clinics constructed in a public manner in municipalities throughout Japan. ICT use was classified by type, including a doctor-to-doctor manner. Only 19% of the 303 clinics surveyed (with a response rate of 30%) used ICT. Specifically, 50% used it in a doctor-to-doctor manner, while 35% used it to obtain electronic medical records. Differences in proficiency levels among ICT users were cited by 21% of the respondents as a major problem associated with ICT use. In Japan, the prevalence of ICT use for rural healthcare appeared low. We suggest a policy reform to facilitate ICT use in rural healthcare.

Education policies to increase rural physicians in Japan: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Japan has established comprehensive education-scholarship programs to supply physicians in rural areas. Their entrants now comprise 16% of all medical students, and graduates must work in rural areas for a designated number of years. These programs are now being adopted outside Japan, but their medium-term outcomes and inter-program differences are unknown. METHODS: A nationwide prospective cohort study of newly licensed physicians 2014-2018 (n = 2454) of the four major types of the programs-Jichi Medical University (Jichi); regional quota with scholarship; non-quota with scholarship (scholarship alone); and quota without scholarship (quota alone)-and all Japanese physicians in the same postgraduate year (n = 40,293) was conducted with follow-up workplace information from the Physician Census 2018, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. In addition, annual cross-sectional survey for prefectural governments and medical schools 2014-2019 was conducted to obtain information on the results of National Physician License Examination and retention status for contractual workforce. RESULTS: Passing rate of the National Physician License Examination was highest in Jichi, followed in descending order by quota with scholarship, the other two programs, and all medical graduates. The retention rate for contractual rural service of Jichi graduates 5 years after graduation (n = 683; 98%) was higher than that of quota with scholarship (2868; 90%; P < 0.001) and scholarship alone (2220; 81% < 0.001). Relative risks of working in municipalities with the least population density quintile in Jichi, quota with scholarship, scholarship alone, and quota alone in postgraduate year 5 were 4.0 (95% CI 3.7-4.4; P < 0.001), 3.1 (2.6-3.7; < 0.001), 2.5 (2.1-3.0; < 0.001), and 2.5 (1.9-3.3; < 0.001) as compared with all Japanese physicians. There was no significant difference between each program and all physicians in the proportion of those who specialized in internal medicine or general practice in postgraduate years 3 to 5 CONCLUSIONS: Japan's education policies to produce rural physicians are effective but the degree of effectiveness varies among the programs. Policymakers and medical educators should plan their future rural workforce policies with reference to the effectiveness and variations of these programs.

Effect and significance of incorporating access in estimating the number of required physicians: focus on differences in population density in the target area.

BACKGROUND: Geographical imbalances in the health workforce, particularly the shortage of health care workers in rural areas, is an issue of social and political concern in most countries. Estimating the number of required doctors is essential for evidence-based health policy planning. In this study, we propose two methods for estimating the number of required doctors using a simple method. One is counting by unit and the other is incorporating access to medical institutions. The purpose of this study is to verify the need to incorporate access to medical institutions when estimating the number of required physicians in a region by comparing both estimation methods from the viewpoint of regional population density. METHODS: We calculated the ratio of outpatients who can access medical institutions and the number of required physicians using the travel time by car and the number of patients who can be treated per doctor per day (estimation method for the number of physicians based on the access simulation, hereinafter referred to as EAS). We compared the results of this estimation with those of a conventional method, such as the number of doctors per population (estimation method for the number of physicians based on the number of patients, hereinafter referred to as ENP) to show how important it is to incorporate the element of accessibility in such a simulation analysis. Based on the results, we discussed the applicability of the proposed method. RESULTS: ENP estimated that 38,685 outpatient primary care (PC) physicians were required and EAS estimated that 46,378 were required. There was a difference of about 8000. A comparison of the EAS-estimated number of physicians and the ENP-estimated number of physicians showed that the ENP-estimated number was small, particularly in areas with low population density. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that it is effective to use the proposed EAS method for the estimation of PC physicians, particularly in areas with low population density. We showed that the method of allocating the number of physicians in proportion to the number of patients in a certain unit requires paying attention to the setting of the unit.

Geographical distribution of family physicians in Japan: a nationwide cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Geographical maldistribution of physicians, and their subsequent shortage in rural areas, has been a serious problem in Japan and in other countries. Family Medicine, a new board-certified specialty started 10 years ago in Japan by Japan Primary Care Association (JPCA), may be a solution to this problem. METHODS: We obtained the workplace information of 527 (78.4%) of the 672 JPCA-certified family physicians from an online database. From the national census data, we also obtained the workplace information of board-certified general internists, surgeons, obstetricians/gynaecologists and paediatricians and of all physicians as the same-generation comparison group (ages 30 to 49). Chi-squared test and residual analysis were conducted to compare the distribution between family physicians and other specialists. RESULTS: Five hundred nineteen JPCA-certified family physicians and 137,587 same-generation physicians were analysed. The distribution of family physicians was skewed to municipalities with a lower population density, which shows a sharp contrast to the urban-biased distribution of other specialists. The proportion of family physicians in non-metropolitan municipalities was significantly higher than that expected based on the distribution of all same-generation physicians (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Family physicians distributed in favour of rural areas much more than any other specialists in Japan. The better balance of family physician distribution reported from countries with a strong primary care orientation seems to hold even in a country where primary care orientation is weak, physician distribution is not regulated, and patients have free access to healthcare. Family physicians comprise only 0.2% of all Japanese physicians. However, if their population grows, they can potentially rectify the imbalance of physician distribution. Government support is mandatory to promote family medicine in Japan.

Facility and Regional Factors Associated With the New Adoption of Electronic Medical Records in Japan: Nationwide Longitudinal Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The rate of adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems has increased internationally, and new EMR adoption is currently a major topic in Japan. However, no study has performed a detailed analysis of longitudinal data to evaluate the changes in the EMR adoption status over time. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the changes in the EMR adoption status over time in hospitals and clinics in Japan and to examine the facility and regional factors associated with these changes. METHODS: Secondary longitudinal data were created by matching data in fiscal year (FY) 2011 and FY 2014 using reference numbers. EMR adoption status was defined as "EMR adoption," "specified adoption schedule," or "no adoption schedule." Data were obtained for hospitals (n=4410) and clinics (n=67,329) that had no adoption schedule in FY 2011 and for hospitals (n=1068) and clinics (n=3132) with a specified adoption schedule in FY 2011. The EMR adoption statuses of medical institutions in FY 2014 were also examined. A multinomial logistic model was used to investigate the associations between EMR adoption status in FY 2014 and facility and regional factors in FY 2011. Considering the regional variations of these models, multilevel analyses with second levels were conducted. These models were constructed separately for hospitals and clinics, resulting in four multinomial logistic models. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% Bayesian credible interval (CI) were estimated for each variable. RESULTS: A total of 6.9% of hospitals and 14.82% of clinics with no EMR adoption schedules in FY 2011 had adopted EMR by FY 2014, while 10.49% of hospitals and 33.65% of clinics with specified adoption schedules in FY 2011 had cancelled the scheduled adoption by FY 2014. For hospitals with no adoption schedules in FY 2011, EMR adoption/scheduled adoption was associated with practice size characteristics, such as number of outpatients (from quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.005-2.84 and OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.80-3.21, respectively), and number of doctors (from quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 4.20, 95% CI 2.39-7.31 and OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.52-2.64, respectively). For clinics with specified EMR adoption schedules in FY 2011, the factors negatively associated with EMR adoption/cancellation of scheduled EMR adoption were the presence of beds (quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.45-0.72 and OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.96, respectively) and having a private establisher (quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.13-0.55 and OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.19-0.91, respectively). No regional factors were significantly associated with the EMR adoption status of hospitals with no EMR adoption schedules; population density was positively associated with EMR adoption in clinics with no EMR adoption schedule (quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.32-1.69). CONCLUSIONS: Different approaches are needed to promote new adoption of EMR systems in hospitals as compared to clinics. It is important to induce decision making in small- and medium-sized hospitals, and regional postdecision technical support is important to avoid cancellation of scheduled EMR adoption in clinics.

Research on Home Care Nursing in Japan Using Geographic Information Systems: A Literature Review.

Given Japan's super-ageing society and its need for developing community-based integrated care system, the role of home care nursing is becoming increasingly important. A central concern in home care nursing is regional/spatial placement of home nursing stations and accessibility for patients. Analysis based on geographic information systems (GIS) may be useful in home care nursing research. We conducted a literature review of home care nursing research based on GIS in Japan. A total of 4 articles were selected following a search of medical literature databases. The first report was published in 2014. Most subjects in the identified studies were older people. Most studies were implemented at a municipal level. Key themes in the identified studies were "placement of specialists and home nursing stations" and "placement of home nursing stations and target patients." Despite the paucity of research, as all identified studies examined the community areas with an aged population, it may point to the need to consider community-based integrated care systems, including home care nursing, in Japan. More GIS-based research on home care nursing is called for.

Board certification and urban-rural migration of physicians in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The board certification system serves as a quality assurance system for physicians, and its design and operation are important health policy issues. In Japan, board certification was established and operated independently by academic societies and has not been directly linked to reimbursement systems. The phenomenon of younger physicians seeking specialist careers has raised concerns about acceleration of the tendency of fewer physicians working in rural areas and the maldistribution of physicians. Little is known about the associations between physicians' geographical migration patterns and board certification status changes or between the continuation of urban/rural practice and the maintenance of board certification. This study aimed to identify these associations and to discuss their policy implications. METHODS: We analyzed 2012 and 2014 data from the Survey of Physicians, Dentists, and Pharmacists, a national census survey. To analyze geographical migration patterns, transitions in practice location (rural, intermediate, and urban) were analyzed by board certification status change (new, lost, consistently certified, and consistently uncertified). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess whether the odds of migrating to more urban/rural municipalities were associated with board certification status changes, adjusting for covariates, and whether practicing in a rural area was associated with maintaining board certification. RESULTS: Among 18,726 newly board-certified physicians, 94.9% (13,435/14,150) of those working in urban areas before certification remained in urban areas, whereas 64.6% (393/608) of those working in rural areas stayed in rural areas. Those who were newly certified had higher odds of moving to more urban areas, adjusting for covariates. Those who stayed in rural areas showed lower odds of maintaining board certification, adjusting for covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Newly board-certified physicians are more likely to migrate to other types of areas, particularly more urban areas, than other physicians. Allocating more training quotas to rural areas could be one option for leveling the distribution of specialists. It also appeared that those practicing in rural areas have difficulty maintaining their certification, so the need to establish a support system for already-certified physicians in rural areas should be emphasized.