Validity and Efficiency of Progression-Free Survival-2 as a Surrogate End Point for Overall Survival in Advanced Cancer Randomized Trials.

PURPOSE: Progression-free survival (PFS)-2, defined as the time from randomization to progression on second-line therapy, is potentially a more reliable surrogate than PFS for overall survival (OS), but will require longer follow-up and a larger sample size. We sought to compare the validity and efficiency, defined as proportional increase in follow-up time and sample size, of PFS-2 to PFS. METHODS: We performed an electronic search to identify randomized trials of advanced solid tumors reporting PFS, PFS-2, and OS as prespecified end points. Only studies that had protocols that defined measurement of PFS-2 and follow-up for patients after first disease progression were included. We compared correlations in the relative treatment effect for OS with PFS and PFS-2. We reconstructed individual patient data from survival curves to estimate time to statistical significance (TSS) of the relative treatment effect. We further computed the sample size (person-year [PY] follow-up) required to reach statistical significance. RESULTS: Across the 42 analysis units and 21,255 patients, the correlation of the relative treatment effect between OS and PFS-2, r, was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.80) and r = 0.46 (95% CI, 0.26 to 0.74) for OS and PFS. The median differences in TSS between OS with PFS, OS with PFS-2, and PFS with PFS-2 were 16.59 (95% CI, 4.48 to not reached [NR]), 10.0 (95% CI, 2.2 to NR), and 4.31 (95% CI, 2.92 to 13.13) months, respectively. The median difference in PYs required to reach statistical significance for PFS-2 over PFS was 156 (95% CI, 82 to 500) PYs, equivalent to an estimated median 12.7% increase in PYs. CONCLUSION: PFS-2 offers improved correlation with OS than PFS with a modest increase in follow-up time and sample size. PFS-2 should be considered as a primary end point in future trials of advanced cancers.

A comparison of the outcomes of pulmonary versus extrapulmonary extensive-stage small cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Extrapulmonary small cell carcinomas (EPSCCs) are rare cancers, comprising 0.1-0.4% of all cancers. The scarcity of EPSCC studies has led current treatment strategies to be extrapolated from small cell lung cancer (SCLC), justified by analogous histological and clinical features. AIMS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study comparing the outcomes of extensive-stage (ES) SCLC and EPSCC. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with ES SCLC or EPSCC between 2010 and 2020 from four hospitals in Sydney were identified. Patients who received active treatment and best supportive care were included. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall response rates (ORRs). RESULTS: Three hundred and eighty-four patients were included (43 EPSCC vs. 340 SCLC). EPSCC were of genitourinary (n = 15), unknown primary (n = 13) and gastrointestinal (n = 12) origin. Treatment modalities for EPSCC compared to SCLC included palliative chemotherapy (56% vs 73%), palliative radiotherapy (47% vs 59%) and consolidation chest radiotherapy (10% of SCLC). Overall, median OS was 6.4 versus 7 months for EPSCC versus SCLC respectively, but highest in prostate EPSCC (25.6 months). Of those who received chemotherapy (22 EPSCC vs 233 SCLC), median OS was 10.4 versus 8.4 months (HR OS 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5-1.31, P = 0.38); PFS was 5.4 versus 5.5 months (HR PFS 0.93, 95% CI: 0.58-1.46, P = 0.74) and ORR were 73% versus 68%. CONCLUSIONS: EPSCC and SCLC appeared to have comparable OS and treatment outcomes. However, the wide range of OS in EPSCC highlights the need for an improved understanding of its genomics to explore alternative therapeutics.

Dedifferentiated umbilical metastases from low grade endometrioid endometrial adenocarcinoma complicated by super-obesity: A case report.

INTRODUCTION: Umbilical metastases are uncommon and rarely associated with endometrial cancer. In this report we describe a unique case of a patient with low-grade endometrioid adenocarcinoma (EAC) who developed an umbilical metastasis containing dedifferentiated endometrial carcinoma, in the context of super-morbid obesity with a body mass index (BMI) of 80 kg/m2. PRESENTATION OF CASE: A 55-year-old female with atypical endometrial hyperplasia was treated with progestogens whilst attempting weight loss prior to definitive surgery, given the impact of her obesity on surgical risk. She progressed to grade 1 EAC of the uterus and then to metastatic disease in the umbilicus and inguinal lymph nodes. After adequate weight loss, cytoreductive surgery was completed via robotic hysterectomy and bilateral salpingoophorectomy (BSO) and resection of metastatic disease. Differing histological grades were seen across all disease sites with dedifferentiated endometrial carcinoma at the umbilicus. Immunohistochemistry suggested a common uterine origin due to loss of MLH1 and PMS2 proteins. DISCUSSION: There are no clear management pathways for the rare umbilical metastases related to endometrial cancer. Our patient's significant obesity complicated their clinical course and highlights the risks of progestogen therapy whilst attempting weight loss prior to definitive surgery for low-grade EAC. Differing grades of disease across metastatic sites in EAC is rare and may reflect the recently recognized intratumoral genetic heterogeneity in endometrial cancers. CONCLUSION: Management of umbilical metastases should be individualized to patient factors and local resources. More research is needed into pathways of care for women with low grade EAC with obesity preventing routine surgical management.

Outcomes of extensive stage extrapulmonary small cell cancer.

BACKGROUND: Extrapulmonary small cell cancer (EPSCC) is a rare malignancy with an incidence of approximately 0.1%-0.4% of all cancers. Treatment of this disease is often based on small cell lung cancer. AIMS: We aimed to investigate real-world clinical outcomes of patients with extensive-stage (ES) ESPCC. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with ES EPSCC between 2010 and 2020 from multiple centres in New South Wales were identified. Patient, disease and treatment characteristics were collected and presented using descriptive statistics. Survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression hazard models were used to identify potential prognostic factors. RESULTS: Sixty eligible ES EPSCC patients were identified, including 65% male and 35% female. The mean age was 69 years (range 37-88). Forty-five per cent were never smokers, 42% ex-smokers and 13% current smokers, and 17% of patients had limited-stage disease prior to development of ES disease. The most common primary sites were genitourinary (42%; mainly prostate (n = 14) and bladder (n = 10)), gastrointestinal (28%; mainly oesophagus (n = 5) and colon (n = 4)) and unknown primary (22%). Treatments received included palliative chemotherapy (67%), palliative radiotherapy (53%), palliative surgery (13%) and best supportive care alone (13%). The median overall survival (OS) was 8.0 months. The median progression-free survival was 5.4 months, and response rate to first-line chemotherapy was 65%. Platinum-based chemotherapy was prognostic of longer OS (HR 0.27, CI 0.12-0.60, P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ES EPSCC had good response to palliative chemotherapy, but OS remained poor. Further research is required to improve the prognosis in this population.

The validity of progression-free survival 2 as a surrogate trial end point for overall survival.

BACKGROUND: Overall survival (OS) is the gold-standard end point for oncology trials. However, the availability of multiple therapeutic options after progression and crossover to receive investigational agents confound and delay OS data maturation. Progression-free survival 2 (PFS-2), defined as the time from randomization to progression on first subsequent therapy, has been proposed as a surrogate for OS. Using a meta-analytic approach, the authors aimed to assess the association between OS and PFS-2 and compare this with progression-free survival 1 (PFS-1) and the objective response rate (ORR). METHODS: An electronic literature search was performed to identify randomized trials of systemic therapies in advanced solid tumors that reported PFS-2 as a prespecified end point. Correlations between OS and PFS-2, OS and PFS-1, and OS and ORR as hazard ratios (HRs) or odds ratios (ORs) were assessed via linear regression weighted by trial size. RESULTS: Thirty-eight trials were included, and they comprised 19,031 patients across 8 tumor types. PFS-2 displayed a moderate correlation with OS (r = 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.08-0.69). Conversely, correlations of ORR (r = 0.12; 95% CI, 0.00-0.13) and PFS-1 (r = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-0.33) were poor. The findings for PFS-2 were consistent for subgroup analyses by treatment type (immunotherapy vs nonimmunotherapy: r = 0.67 vs 0.67), survival post progression (<12 vs ≥12 months: r = 0.86 vs 0.79), and percentage not receiving subsequent treatment (<50% vs ≥50%: r = 0.70 vs 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: Across diverse tumors and therapies, the treatment effect on PFS-2 correlated moderately with the treatment effect on OS. PFS-2 performed consistently better than PFS-1 and ORR, regardless of postprogression treatment and postprogression survival. PFS-2 should be included as a key trial end point in future randomized trials of solid tumors.

Pre- and on-treatment lactate dehydrogenase as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: The survival outcomes of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are variable. This study investigated whether pre- and on-treatment lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) could better prognosticate and select patients for ICI therapy. METHODS: Using data from the POPLAR and OAK trials of atezolizumab versus docetaxel in previously treated advanced NSCLC, the authors assessed the prognostic and predictive value of pretreatment LDH (less than or equal to vs greater than the upper limit of normal). They further examined changes in on-treatment LDH by performing landmark analyses and estimated overall survival (OS) distributions according to the LDH level stratified by the response category (complete response [CR]/partial response [PR] vs stable disease [SD]). They repeated pretreatment analyses in subgroups defined by the programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) status. RESULTS: This study included 1327 patients with available pretreatment LDH. Elevated pretreatment LDH was associated with an adverse prognosis regardless of treatment (hazard ratio [HR] for atezolizumab OS, 1.49; P = .0001; HR for docetaxel OS, 1.30; P = .004; P for treatment by LDH interaction = .28). Findings for elevated pretreatment LDH were similar for patients with positive PD-L1 expression treated with atezolizumab. Persistently elevated on-treatment LDH was associated with a 1.3- to 2.8-fold increased risk of death at weeks 6, 12, 18, and 24 regardless of treatment. Elevated LDH at 6 weeks was associated with significantly shorter OS regardless of radiological response (HR for CR/PR, 2.10; P = .04; HR for SD, 1.50; P < .01), with similar findings observed at 12 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: In previously treated advanced NSCLC, elevated pretreatment LDH is an independent adverse prognostic marker. There is no evidence that pretreatment LDH predicts ICI benefit. Persistently elevated on-treatment LDH is associated with worse OS despite radiologic response.

Protocol of DREAM3R: DuRvalumab with chEmotherapy as first-line treAtment in advanced pleural Mesothelioma-a phase 3 randomised trial.

INTRODUCTION: There is a strong theoretical rationale for combining checkpoint blockade with cytotoxic chemotherapy in pleural mesothelioma and other cancers. Two recent single-arm, phase 2 trials [DuRvalumab with chEmotherapy as first-line treAtment in advanced pleural Mesothelioma (DREAM) and Phase II multicenter study of anti-PD-L1, durvalumab, in combination with cisplatin and pemetrexed for the first-line treatment of unresectable malignant pleural mesothelioma (PrE0505)] combining the programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) inhibitor durvalumab with standard first-line chemotherapy exceeded prespecified safety and activity criteria to proceed to a phase 3 confirmatory trial to assess this combination. We present the protocol of the DREAM3R trial. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This multicentre open-label randomised trial will recruit 480 treatment-naïve adults with advanced pleural mesothelioma, randomised (2:1) to either 3-weekly durvalumab 1500 mg plus 3-weekly doublet chemotherapy (cisplatin 75 mg/m2 or carboplatin, Area Under the Curve,AUC 5 and pemetrexed 500 mg/m2) 4-6 cycles, followed by 4-weekly durvalumab 1500 mg until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity or patient withdrawal; OR doublet chemotherapy alone for 4-6 cycles, followed by observation. The target accrual time is 27 months, with follow-up for an additional 24 months. This provides over 85% power if the true HR for overall survival (OS) is 0.70, with two-sided alpha of 0.05, assuming a median OS of 15 months in the control group. Randomisation is stratified by age (18-70 years vs >70), sex, histology (epithelioid vs non-epithelioid), platinum agent (cisplatin vs carboplatin) and region (USA vs Australia/New Zealand vs Other). The primary endpoint is OS. Secondary endpoints include progression-free survival, objective tumour response (by mRECIST V.1.1 and iRECIST), adverse events, health-related quality of life and healthcare resource use. Tertiary correlative objectives are to explore and validate potential prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers (including features identified in the DuRvalumab with chEmotherapy as first-line treAtment in advanced pleural Mesothelioma (DREAM) and PrE0505 studies, PD-L1 expression, tumour mutational burden, genomic characteristics and human leukocyte antigen subtypes) in tissue and serial blood samples. An imaging databank will be assembled for validation of radiological measures of response, and studies of possible radiomic biomarkers in mesothelioma. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol was approved by human research ethics review committees for all participating sites. Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and at scientific conferences. DRUG SUPPLY: AstraZeneca. PROTOCOL VERSION: CTC 0231 / TOGA 18/001 / PrE0506 3.0, 29 July 2021. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04334759 ACTRN 12620001199909.

Incorporating circulating tumor DNA detection to radiographic assessment for treatment response in advanced EGFR-mutant lung cancer.

PURPOSE: Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) has limitations but remains the conventional approach for tumor assessments. We explored whether circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) can be incorporated into RECIST to provide a more robust measure of tumor response in advanced EGFR-mutant NSCLC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In FASTACT-2, patients with advanced NSCLC received platinum/gemcitabine intercalated with erlotinib or placebo. EGFR mutation (tumor and plasma ctDNA) was detected using cobas v2. Patients selected for this hypothesis-generating analysis had EGFR mutations (on either tumor or plasma) at baseline and evaluable week 8 plasma EGFR. Week 8 ctDNA and radiologic response status were correlated with survival using landmark cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Of the original 451 patients, 86 (19.1%) were eligible for this analysis. 73% (n = 63) had detectable ctDNA at baseline. At week 8, 40% (n = 34) had radiologic partial response (PR), 60% (n = 52) had stable disease (SD); 80% (n = 69) had a ctDNA response (undetectable ctDNA). In patients who had initial PR and undetectable ctDNA, 93% (28/30) had ongoing PR subsequently at week 16. The median duration of response was 14.9 months. In patients with SD and undetectable ctDNA at week 8, 28% had radiological PR at week 16. Amongst those with PR at week 8, survival outcomes for those with undetectable vs detectable ctDNA were not statistically significant (PFS HR 0.49, 95%CI 0.16-1.48, p = 0.21; OS HR 0.39, 95%CI 0.13-1.19, p = 0.10). Amongst those with SD at week 8, there was significantly longer survival for those with undetectable vs detectable ctDNA (PFS HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.13-0.57, p < 0.0001; OS HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.20-0.80, p = 0.009). CONCLUSION: In patients with SD, undetectable ctDNA at week 8 correlated with survival improvement. Both radiologic and ctDNA responses are prognostic of PFS. Incorporation of ctDNA with RECIST may improve tumor response assessment in EGFR-mutant NSCLC.

Results of PD-L1 Analysis of Women Treated with Durvalumab in Advanced Endometrial Carcinoma (PHAEDRA).

Women with advanced endometrial carcinoma (EC) with mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency have improved outcomes when treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors; however, additional biomarkers are needed to identify women most likely to respond. Scores for programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1), immunohistochemical staining of tumor (TC+), immune cells (IC+) and presence of tumor-associated immune cells (ICP) on MMR deficient (n = 34) and proficient (n = 33) EC from women treated with durvalumab in the PHAEDRA trial (ANZGOG1601/CTC0144) (trial registration number ACTRN12617000106336, prospectively registered 19 January 2017) are reported and correlated with outcome. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and area under the ROC curve were used to determine optimal cutpoints. Performance was compared with median cutpoints and two algorithms; a novel algorithm derived from optimal cutpoints (TC+ ≥ 1 or ICP ≥ 10 or IC+ ≥ 35) and the Ventana urothelial carcinoma (UC) algorithm (either TC+ ≥ 25, ICP > 1 and IC+ ≥ 25 or ICP = 1 and IC+ = 100). The cutpoint ICP ≥ 10 had highest sensitivity (53%) and specificity (82%), being prognostic for progression-free survival (PFS) (p = 0.01), while the optimal cutpoints algorithm was associated with overall survival (p = 0.02); these results were not significant after adjusting for MMR status. The optimal cutpoints algorithm identified non-responders (p = 0.02) with high sensitivity (88%) and negative predictive value (92%), remaining significant after adjustment for MMR. Although MMR status had the strongest association with response, further work to determine the significance of ICP ≥ 10 and the novel optimal cutpoint algorithm is needed.

Tumor Response End Points as Surrogates for Overall Survival in Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: Many immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have been approved on the basis of tumor response end points in nonrandomized trials, including objective response rate (ORR) and duration and depth of response. We aimed to assess the validity of these end points as surrogate end points for overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced solid tumors treated with ICIs at trial and treatment arm levels. METHODS: ICI trials in advanced solid cancers published between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2020, were included. Correlations between ORR, durable response (DR) of ≥ 6 months, complete response (CR), and OS were assessed for treatment comparisons (trial-level) and for patients receiving ICI (arm-level), using weighted linear regression. RESULTS: Sixty-three trials were eligible, including 58 randomized controlled trials and 20 nonrandomized controlled trials (78 ICI arms and 30,815 patients). The majority were phase III (63%), and OS was the most common primary end point (40%). In relative treatment comparisons, correlations between ORR risk ratio and OS hazard ratio (HR), 6-month DR ratio and OS HR, and CR ratio and OS HR were r = 0.58, r = 0.62, and r = 0.42, respectively. Exploratory studies in melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, and other tumors showed similar results, although 6-month DR ratio was strongly correlated with OS HR (r = 0.89). Within ICI arms only, correlations between ORR and 12-month OS, 6-month DR and 12-month OS, and CR and 12-month OS were r = 0.76, r = 0.84, and r = 0.50, respectively, in all eligible trials. CONCLUSION: Relative measures of tumor response (ORR, 6-month DR, and CR) are poor surrogate end points for OS in ICI studies. However, ORR and 6-month DR are prognostic of 12-month OS in ICI studies supporting their use for screening activity of novel agents in early-phase nonrandomized trials.

Clinical activity of durvalumab for patients with advanced mismatch repair-deficient and repair-proficient endometrial cancer. A nonrandomized phase 2 clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we assessed the activity of durvalumab, an antibody to programmed death ligand-1, in two cohorts of women with advanced endometrial cancers (AEC)-mismatch repair proficient (pMMR) and mismatch repair deficient (dMMR). METHODS: A multicenter phase two study was performed in women with AEC with pMMR tumor progressing after one to three lines of chemotherapy and women with AEC with dMMR tumor progressing after zero to three lines of chemotherapy. Mismatch repair status was based on immunohistochemistry expression. All women received durvalumab 1500 mg given every 4 weeks until progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint was objective tumor response by RECIST V.1.1 modified for immune-based therapeutics. RESULTS: Seventy-one women were recruited: 35 dMMR and 36 pMMR. Median follow-up was 19 vs 21 months in dMMR versus pMMR, respectively. Median age was 67 years. Histology in dMMR versus pMMR included endometrioid (94% vs 57%) and serous (0% vs 31%) and was high grade in 26% vs 74%. The objective tumor response rate (OTRR) in the dMMR cohort was 47% (17/36, 95% CI 32 to 63), including 6 complete responses and 11 partial responses (PRs)) vs 3% in the pMMR cohort (1/35, 95% CI 1 to 15, PR). In the dMMR cohort, durvalumab was the first-line therapy in 58% (OTRR 57%) and the second-line therapy in 39% (OTRR 38%). Median progression-free survival was 8.3 months in the dMMR cohort vs 1.8 months in the pMMR cohort. The 12-month overall survival (OS) rate was 71% in dMMR vs 51% in pMMR, with median OS not reached for dMMR vs 12 months for pMMR. Immune-related adverse events occurred in 14 women, mostly grades 1-2. CONCLUSION: Durvalumab monotherapy showed promising activity and acceptable safety in AEC with dMMR regardless of prior lines of chemotherapy, but activity was limited in AEC with pMMR. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: ANZGOG1601, ACTRN12617000106336, and NCT03015129.

Clinical utility of plasma EGFR mutation detection with quantitative PCR in advanced lung cancer: A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical utility of quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays, a routinely used test for detection of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation in circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) in treatment-naive advanced lung cancer patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with individual patient data. Eligible RCTs compared EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR-TKI) and chemotherapy in first line setting for advanced lung cancer, and included tumour EGFR+ (tEGFR+) with paired ctDNA results using real-time (quantitative) PCR. We assessed the proportion of tEGFR + detected by ctDNA, and compared the effectiveness of EGFR-TKI versus chemotherapy in ctDNA + and ctDNA- subgroups. RESULTS: Six randomized clinical trials included 1058 tEGFR + patients with paired baseline EGFR ctDNA testing. Of these, 460 (43 %) tested ctDNA- (ctDNA+ 57 %). Progression-free survival was longer for EGFR-TKI versus chemotherapy for both ctDNA+ (HR 0.28; 95 % CI 0.22-0.36, p < 0.00001) and ctDNA- subgroups (HR 0.37; 95 % CI 0.28-0.49, p < 0.00001; p-interaction = 0.14). Objective response rate (odds ratio 6.21; 95 % CI 4.25-9.07, p < 0.00001 vs 6.44; 95 % CI 4.21-9.87, p < 0.00001) and overall survival (HR 0.82; 95 % CI 0.70-1.04 vs HR 0.77; 95CI% 0.59-1.00) similarly favoured EGFR-TKI in both ctDNA + and ctDNA- subgroups respectively. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that approximately two in five tissue EGFR mutation-positive patients will not be detected using a qPCR assay, but would still potentially benefit from highly effective EGFR-TKI treatment. A negative EGFR ctDNA result via qPCR testing is therefore insufficient to exclude benefit from EGFR-TKI. Attempts should be made to repeat EGFR testing with a tissue biopsy in this patient group. As newer ctDNA assays with better sensitivity become available, the clinical impact for any false negatives will remain an important consideration.

Validation of Progression-Free Survival Rate at 6 Months and Objective Response for Estimating Overall Survival in Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: Progression-free survival (PFS) rate at 6 months has been proposed as a potential surrogate for overall survival (OS) rate at 12 months for immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) trials but requires further assessment for validation. Objective: To validate 6-month PFS and objective response rate (ORR) as estimators of 12-month OS in the ICI arms of randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Data Sources: Electronic databases (Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) were searched for ICI RCTs published between January 2000 and June 2019. Study Selection: Eligible studies were phase 2 and phase 3 ICI RCTs in advanced solid cancers that reported ORR, PFS, and OS. A total of 99 articles (from 60 studies) of 2502 articles were selected by consensus. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Data were screened and extracted independently. Estimation models for 12-month OS and to assess correlation coefficient between end points were developed using linear regression. Data were extracted in July 2019, and analyses were conducted in September 2019. This study is reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline. Main Outcomes and Measures: Validation of previously reported 6-month PFS and ORR estimation models for 12-month OS using contemporary RCTs. Calibration of 6-month PFS and ORR model-estimated vs observed 12-month OS in ICI arms were assessed by correlation coefficient (r) and weighted Brier scores. Secondary analyses were performed for subgroups (ie, ICI-only, ICI-combination, line of therapy, programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 selected, and unselected). Results: Data from 60 RCTs with 74 experimental ICI arms were used. The development data set included 25 arms from studies published January 2000 to January 2017. The estimation model for 12-month OS using 6-month PFS was: (1.06 × PFS6) + 0.16 + (0.04 × melanoma) - (0.03 × NSCLC) + (0 × other tumors), in which PFS6 indicates 6-month PFS and NSCLC indicates non-small cell lung cancer. The estimation model for 12-month OS using ORR was (0.15 × ORR) + 0.52 + (0 × melanoma) - (0.02 × NSCLC) - (0.01 × other tumors). A total of 49 arms from studies published after January 2017 to June 2019 formed the validation data set. When the models were applied on the validation data set, calibration between the 6-month PFS model estimated vs observed 12-month OS was good (r = 0.89; Brier score, 0.008), but poor for the ORR model (r = 0.47; Brier score, 0.03). Findings were similar across all subgroups. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that the estimation model using 6-month PFS could reliably estimate 12-month OS in ICI trials. This study could assist in better selection and prioritization of ICI agents for testing in RCTs based on phase 2 single-arm RCT results.

Durvalumab with first-line chemotherapy in previously untreated malignant pleural mesothelioma (DREAM): a multicentre, single-arm, phase 2 trial with a safety run-in.

BACKGROUND: There is a strong unmet need to improve systemic therapy in mesothelioma. Chemotherapy with cisplatin and pemetrexed improves survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma, and immune checkpoint inhibitors are an emerging treatment in this disease. We aimed to evaluate the activity of durvalumab, an anti-PD-L1 antibody, given during and after first-line chemotherapy with cisplatin and pemetrexed in patients with advanced malignant pleural mesothelioma. METHODS: DREAM was a multicentre, single-arm, open-label, phase 2 trial done in nine hospitals in Australia. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older and had histologically confirmed malignant pleural mesothelioma considered unsuitable for cancer-directed surgery, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1, and measurable disease as per the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1.0 (mRECIST) for mesothelioma that was previously untreated with systemic therapy. All histological subtypes were eligible. The first six participants were treated for two cycles in a safety run-in. All participants received cisplatin 75 mg/m2, pemetrexed 500 mg/m2, and durvalumab 1125 mg intravenously on day 1 of a 3-weekly schedule for a maximum of six cycles. Change from cisplatin to carboplatin with an area under the curve of 5 was permitted. Durvalumab was continued for a maximum of 12 months. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival at 6 months, measured according to mRECIST for malignant pleural mesothelioma and analysed in the intention-to-treat population. Safety analyses included all participants who receive at least one dose of any study drug. This study is registered with the Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12616001170415. FINDINGS: Between Dec 28, 2016, and Sept 27, 2017, 55 participants were enrolled. 54 patients were eligible and were followed up for a median of 28·2 months (IQR 26·5-30·2). 31 (57%; 95% CI 44-70) of 54 patients were alive and progression-free at 6 months. The most common grade 3-4 adverse events were neutropenia (seven [13%] patients), nausea (six [11%]), and anaemia (four [7%]). A total of 60 serious adverse events occurred in 29 participants, five of which were considered possibly related to durvalumab. Five patients died during the study treatment; none of these five deaths were attributed to study treatment. INTERPRETATION: The combination of durvalumab, cisplatin, and pemetrexed has promising activity and an acceptable safety profile that warrants further investigation in a randomised phase 3 trial. FUNDING: AstraZeneca.

PARAGON (ANZGOG-0903): a phase 2 study of anastrozole in asymptomatic patients with estrogen and progesterone receptor-positive recurrent ovarian cancer and CA125 progression.

OBJECTIVE: A subset of patients with recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) may benefit from antiestrogen therapy with higher response rates reported in tumors that are strongly estrogen receptor (ER)-positive (ER⁺). PARAGON is a basket trial that incorporates 7 phase 2 trials investigating the activity of anastrozole in patients with ER⁺ and/or progesterone receptor (PR)-positive (PR⁺) recurrent/metastatic gynecological cancers. METHODS: Postmenopausal women with ER⁺ and/or PR⁺ ROC, who were asymptomatic and had cancer antigen 125 (CA125) progression after response to first line chemotherapy, where chemotherapy was not clinically indicated. Patients received anastrozole 1 mg daily until progression or unacceptable toxicity. RESULTS: Fifty-four patients were enrolled (52 evaluable). Clinical benefit at three months (primary endpoint) was observed in 18 patients (34.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI]=23%-48%). Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 2.7 months (95% CI=2.1-3.1). The median duration of clinical benefit was 6.5 months (95% CI=2.8-11.7). Most patients progressed within 6 months of starting anastrozole but 12 (22%) continued treatment for longer than 6 months. Anastrozole was well tolerated. In the exploratory analysis, ER histoscores and the intensity of ER staining did not correlate with clinical benefit rate or PFS. CONCLUSION: A subset of asymptomatic patients with ER⁺ and/or PR⁺ ROC and CA125 progression had durable clinical benefit on anastrozole, with acceptable toxicity. Anastrozole may delay symptomatic progression and the time to subsequent chemotherapy. The future challenge is to identify the subset of patients most likely to benefit from an aromatase inhibitor and whether the clinical benefit could be increased by the addition of other agents.

Evaluating the addition of oxaliplatin to single agent fluoropyrimidine in the treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Multimodality treatment of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) has significantly improved local disease control, however the unaltered overall survival (OS) implicates an inability to further control micrometastases, providing rationale for intensified systemic treatment. A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of adding oxaliplatin to a fluoropyrimidine (intervention) compared with fluoropyrimidine alone (control) in the treatment of LARC. METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, Medline Ovid, PubMed and EMBASE databases. Randomised trials comparing the intervention and control delivered either pre- or post-operatively were included. RESULTS: Seven trials involving 4444 patients were identified; five studies evaluated the intervention vs control preoperatively; one study peri-operatively; and one, post-operatively. There was no significant difference in OS with oxaliplatin addition, HR 0.89, 95% CI, 0.75 to 1.06. There was however an improvement in disease free survival, 3-year local and distant recurrence rates (RR) favouring oxaliplatin. Preoperative oxaliplatin improved pathological complete response (pCR), but with a greater toxicity and reduced compliance with radiation. CONCLUSION: There is no OS benefit with oxaliplatin, despite improved pCR, local and distant RR. Before drawing definitive conclusions, longer follow-up in included trials and availability of published data from other eligible studies, including the induction setting, are needed.

Enhanced Recovery After Surgery for Advanced Ovarian Cancer: A Systematic Review of Interventions Trialed.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to summarize the evidence for interventions aiming at enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) in ovarian cancer through a systematic review. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library for studies testing ERAS interventions in patients undergoing surgery for ovarian cancer. Study selection and data extraction were done independently by 2 reviewers with disagreements resolved by discussion with a senior, third reviewer. RESULTS: We identified 25 studies including 1648 participants with ovarian cancer. Nine observational studies addressed ERAS protocols. Four of them were prospective, and 3 included historical controls. The other 16 studies reported single interventions, for example, early feeding, omission of pelvic drains, early orogastric tube removal, Doppler-guided fluid management, and patient-controlled epidural analgesia. Early feeding protocols were tested in 7 of the 12 randomized trials. Early feeding appeared to be safe and was associated with significantly faster recovery of bowel function. CONCLUSIONS: Few studies have specifically studied ERAS interventions in ovarian cancer. All studies on protocols including multiple interventions were susceptible to bias. Early feeding is the intervention that is best supported by randomized trials. Application of evidence for ERAS derived from nonovarian cancer is challenged by the differences not only in the scope of surgery but also in ovarian cancer patients' comorbidities. Postoperative morbidity is particularly high in these patients because of their poor nutritional status, perioperative fluids shifts, and long operating times. These patients may also show excessive response to surgical stress. Innovative, randomized trials are needed to reliably determine the feasibility, safety, and effectiveness of specific ERAS interventions in ovarian cancer.

Enhanced Recovery After Surgery for Suspected Ovarian Malignancy: A Survey of Perioperative Practice Among Gynecologic Oncologists in Australia and New Zealand to Inform a Clinical Trial.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this survey was to review the current standard of perioperative care of patients with suspected advanced ovarian cancer in Australia and New Zealand in order to determine the level of equipoise for specific interventions. METHODS: In May 2016, a web-based questionnaire (SurveyMonkey Inc, Palo Alto, CA) was sent to all gynecologic oncologists in Australia and New Zealand (n = 56). Descriptive statistics were used. RESULTS: Response rate was 75%. Prevention of hypothermia, extended thromboembolic prophylaxis, antibiotic prophylaxis, and the avoidance of the routine use of drains were standard of care. Bowel preparation was given by 10% routinely and by 35% when bowel resection was planned. Fasting times for fluids of six hours or more were common (55%). Only 26% had shortened fasting times of two hours. Twelve percent used carbohydrate loading. The majority of patients started a light diet within the first postoperative day and advanced diet subsequently as tolerated. Six respondents (15%) used thoracic epidural, whereas the majority (73%) administered an opioid-based intravenous patient-controlled analgesia as the predominant postoperative analgesia, mainly as part of a multimodal pain management. The majority of respondents expressed an interest in a trial concept of individual ERAS interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Only a minority of ERAS interventions can be considered standard of care in ovarian cancer surgery. The existing level of equipoise among gynecologic oncologists in Australia and New Zealand, and their interest in a trial concept of individual ERAS interventions allows further assessment of the feasibility and efficacy of interventions in a randomized controlled trial.

A systematic evaluation of compliance and reporting of patient-reported outcome endpoints in ovarian cancer randomised controlled trials: implications for generalisability and clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the patient-reported outcome (PRO) content of ovarian cancer randomised-controlled trial (RCT) publications, describe PRO compliance, and explore potential relationships among these and completeness of PRO protocol content. METHODS: Publications of Phase III ovarian cancer RCTs with PRO endpoints were identified by Medline and Cochrane systematic search: January 2000 to February 2016. Two reviewers determined the number of Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT)-PRO Extension items addressed in publications. Compliance rates (defined as the proportion of participants included in the principal PRO analysis, of those from whom PRO assessments were expected) were extracted. The relationship between CONSORT-PRO score and compliance rates was explored using scatter plots. Additionally CONSORT-PRO score and PRO compliance rates respectively were compared with corresponding PRO protocol scores obtained from a previous study. RESULTS: Thirty-six eligible RCTs (n = 33 with secondary PRO endpoint) were identified and analysed. The average number of CONSORT-PRO items addressed in publications was 6.7 (48%; Range 0-13.5/14). Three RCTs did not report PRO results; in 1 case due to poor compliance. Some compliance information was reported in 26 RCTs, but was considered complete for only 10 (28%) RCTs. Compliance rates were poor overall, ranging from 59 to 83%; therefore missing PRO data from 17 to 41% of participants in these trials could have been avoided.Of the 26 (73%) RCTs for which PRO protocol completeness scores were available, 6 RCTs reported complete compliance information and the 3 of these RCTs with highest PRO compliance had highest protocol checklist scores. CONCLUSIONS: Few RCTs reported PRO compliance information in a manner enabling assessment of the generalisability of PRO results. This information is particularly important in RCTs of advanced ovarian cancer because it is important to be able to determine if missing data was due to worsening illness compared to methodological issues. Poor compliance appeared related to poor PRO protocol content, and in one case prevented PRO results from being reported, highlighting the need to address compliance strategies in the protocol. Adhering to protocol and CONSORT-PRO reporting guidance should improve PRO implementation and reporting respectively in ovarian cancer RCTs and allow results to meaningfully inform clinical practice.