The impact of open access mandates on scientific research and technological development in the U.S.

Getting to a net-zero emissions economy requires faster development and diffusion of novel clean energy technologies. We exploit a rare natural experiment to study the impact of an open-access mandate on the diffusion of scientific research into patented technologies. From 2014 onwards, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) required its 17 National Laboratories (NLs) to publish all peer-reviewed scientific articles without a paywall. Using data from more than 300,000 scientific publications between 2012 and 2018, we show that scientific articles subject to the mandate were used on average 42% more in patents, despite embargo periods of up to 12 months. We also show that articles subject to the mandate were not cited more frequently by other academic articles. Our findings suggest that the mandate primarily contributed to technological development but has not led to additional academic research. Lastly, we show that small firms were the primary beneficiaries of the increased diffusion of scientific knowledge.

Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation.

Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.

From Covid-19 to conflict: Does environmental regulation and green innovation improve industrial sector decarbonization efforts and environmental management?

During the COVID-19 period, industrial production was slowed or halted due to COVID restrictions and lockdowns, followed by global tensions and conflicts, which created uncertainties for industrial production. Similarly, during this period, the growth in carbon emissions was seen shrinking. However, it is greatly important to explore whether this shrinking trend will continue or whether a new growth pattern could emerge. Considering this, the research was carried out to investigate the relationship between green innovation initiatives and environmental regulations in the process of environmental management and environmental performance in the industrial sector. To do so, the survey-based research methodology using PLS-SEM was adopted, and data was gathered from 279 managers working in the equipment manufacturing industry. Our empirical findings revealed that environmental regulation and green innovation efforts strengthen decarbonization efforts, which further improve environmental management and environmental performance. The mediating role of decarbonization efforts was found to be prominent among green process innovation, environmental management and environmental performance. Moreover, decarbonization serves as a mediator between green product innovation and environmental management. In contrast, we could not verify that decarbonization mediates the relationship between green product innovation and environmental performance. The key findings are greatly important and provide a fresh roadmap for environmental management in the post-COVID era.

Air pollution and anti-social behaviour: Evidence from a randomised lab-in-the-field experiment.

We conducted a pre-registered randomised lab-in-the-field online experiment in Beijing, China, to explore the relationship between acute air pollution and anti-social behaviour. Our novel experimental design exploits naturally occurring discontinuities in pollution episodes to mimic an experimental setting in which pollution exposure is exogenously manipulated, thus allowing us to identify a causal relationship. Participants were randomly assigned to be surveyed on either high pollution or low pollution days, thereby exogenously varying the degree of pollution exposure. In addition, a subset of individuals surveyed on the high-pollution days received an additional 'pollution alert' to explore whether providing air pollution warnings influences (protective) behaviour. We used a set of well-established incentivised economic games to obtain clean measures of anti-social behaviour, as well as a range of secondary outcomes which may drive the proposed pollution-behaviour relationship. Our results indicate that exposure to acute air pollution had no statistically significant effect on anti-social behaviour, but significantly reduced both psychological and physiological well-being. However, these effects do not remain statistically significant after adjusting for multiple hypothesis testing. We find no evidence that pollution affects cognitive ability, present bias, discounting, or risk aversion, four potential pathways which may explain the relationship between pollution and anti-social behaviour. Our study adds to the growing calls for purposefully designed and pre-registered experiments that strengthen experimental (as opposed to correlational or quasi-experimental) identification and thus allow causal insights into the relationship between pollution and anti-social behaviour.

Anti-social behaviour and economic decision-making: Panel experimental evidence in the wake of COVID-19.

We systematically examine the acute impact of exposure to a public health crisis on anti-social behaviour and economic decision-making using unique experimental panel data from China, collected just before the outbreak of COVID-19 and immediately after the first wave was overcome. Exploiting plausibly exogenous geographical variation in virus exposure coupled with a dataset of longitudinal experiments, we show that participants who were more intensely exposed to the virus outbreak became more anti-social than those with lower exposure, while other aspects of economic and social preferences remain largely stable. The finding is robust to multiple hypothesis testing and a similar, yet less pronounced pattern emerges when using alternative measures of virus exposure, reflecting societal concern and sentiment, constructed using social media data. The anti-social response is particularly pronounced for individuals who experienced an increase in depression or negative affect, which highlights the important role of psychological health as a potential mechanism through which the virus outbreak affected behaviour.

COVID-19 and protected areas: Impacts, conflicts, and possible management solutions.

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, management authorities of numerous Protected Areas (PAs) had to discourage visitors from accessing them in order to reduce the virus transmission rate and protect local communities. This resulted in social-ecological impacts and added another layer of complexity to managing PAs. This paper presents the results of a survey in Snowdonia National Park capturing the views of over 700 local residents on the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions and possible scenarios and tools for managing tourist numbers. Lower visitor numbers were seen in a broadly positive way by a significant number of respondents while benefit sharing issues from tourism also emerged. Most preferred options to manage overcrowding were restricting access to certain paths, the development of mobile applications to alert people to overcrowding and reporting irresponsible behavior. Our findings are useful for PA managers and local communities currently developing post-COVID-19 recovery strategies.

Overstated carbon emission reductions from voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon.

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has gained international attention over the past decade, as manifested in both United Nations policy discussions and hundreds of voluntary projects launched to earn carbon-offset credits. There are ongoing discussions about whether and how projects should be integrated into national climate change mitigation efforts under the Paris Agreement. One consideration is whether these projects have generated additional impacts over and above national policies and other measures. To help inform these discussions, we compare the crediting baselines established ex-ante by voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon to counterfactuals constructed ex-post based on the quasi-experimental synthetic control method. We find that the crediting baselines assume consistently higher deforestation than counterfactual forest loss in synthetic control sites. This gap is partially due to decreased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon during the early implementation phase of the REDD+ projects considered here. This suggests that forest carbon finance must strike a balance between controlling conservation investment risk and ensuring the environmental integrity of carbon emission offsets. Relatedly, our results point to the need to better align project- and national-level carbon accounting.

Environmental implications of increased US oil production and liberal growth agenda in post -Paris Agreement era.

Contextualising on the internationally low oil prices era and historically high oil production in USA and refusal to honour the commitments under Paris Agreement (COP: 21), this study investigates the role of education, oil prices and natural resources on energy demand and CO2 emissions in the USA for the period of 1976-2016. In so doing, we employed a bounds testing approach to cointegration accounting for structural breaks in the series. Key findings suggest the presence of a long-run association between underlying variables. The abundance of natural resources and economic growth of the US economy seem to weigh on environmental quality by increasing energy consumption and carbon emissions. Oil prices show a negative association with energy consumption as well as carbon emissions suggesting that a low oil prices regime can lead to an increase in carbon emissions and energy consumption. Interestingly, education seems to play an important role by reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions, resultantly improving the US environmental quality. Our findings have profound environmental implications in terms of efforts to tackle climate change and meeting the Paris agreement (COP: 21) ambitions with reality and USA policy stance.

Mechanisms and impacts of an incentive-based conservation program with evidence from a randomized control trial.

Conservation science needs more high-quality impact evaluations, especially ones that explore mechanisms of success or failure. Randomized control trials (RCTs) provide particularly robust evidence of the effectiveness of interventions (although they have been criticized as reductionist and unable to provide insights into mechanisms), but there have been few such experiments investigating conservation at the landscape scale. We explored the impact of Watershared, an incentive-based conservation program in the Bolivian Andes, with one of the few RCTs of landscape-scale conservation in existence. There is strong interest in such incentive-based conservation approaches as some argue they can avoid negative social impacts sometimes associated with protected areas. We focused on social and environmental outcomes based on responses from a household survey in 129 communities randomly allocated to control or treatment (conducted both at the baseline in 2010 and repeated in 2015-2016). We controlled for incomplete program uptake by combining standard RCT analysis with matching methods and investigated mechanisms by exploring intermediate and ultimate outcomes according to the underlying theory of change. Previous analyses, focused on single biophysical outcomes, showed that over its first 5 years Watershared did not slow deforestation or improve water quality at the landscape scale. We found that Watershared influenced some outcomes measured using the survey, but the effects were complex, and some were unexpected. We thus demonstrated how RCTs can provide insights into the pathways of impact, as well as whether an intervention has impact. This paper, one of the first registered reports in conservation science, demonstrates how preregistration can help make complex research designs more transparent, avoid cherry picking, and reduce publication bias.

Mecanismos e Impactos de un Programa de Conservación Basada en Incentivos con Evidencias de un Ensayo Aleatorio de Control Resumen Las ciencias de la conservación necesitan evaluaciones de impacto de mayor calidad, especialmente aquellas que exploran los mecanismos del éxito o del fracaso. Los ensayos aleatorios de control (RCTs) proporcionan evidencias particularmente sólidas de la efectividad de las intervenciones (aunque han recibido críticas por considerarlas reduccionistas e incapaces de proporcionar conocimiento sobre los mecanismos) pero ha habido pocos experimentos de ese tipo que investiguen los efectos de la conservación a escala del paisaje. Exploramos el impacto de Watershared, un programa de conservación basada en incentivos en marcha en los Andes bolivianos, con uno de los pocos RCTs existentes de conservación a escala de paisaje. Existe un gran interés por dichas estrategias de conservación basada en incentivos pues hay quienes argumentan que pueden evitar los impactos sociales negativos que a veces se asocian con las áreas protegidas. Nos enfocamos en los resultados sociales y ambientales con base en las respuestas de una encuesta a hogares en 129 comunidades asignadas al azar para controlar o tratar (ambas encuestas realizadas en la línea base en 2010 y repetidas en 2015/16). Impusimos un control para la aceptación incompleta del programa al combinar el análisis estandarizado de RCTs con métodos de emparejamiento e investigamos los mecanismos mediante la exploración de resultados intermedios y finales de acuerdo con la teoría subyacente del cambio. Los análisis previos, enfocados en resultados biofísicos únicos, mostraron que durante los primeros cinco años del programa Watershared, la deforestación no experimentó una desaceleración y tampoco hubo mejoras en la calidad del agua a escala de paisaje. Descubrimos que Watershared influyó sobre algunos resultados medidos con la encuesta, pero sus efectos fueron complejos y algunos fueron inesperados. De este modo demostramos como los RCTs pueden proporcionar conocimiento sobre las vías de impacto, así como también si una intervención genera un impacto. Este artículo, uno de los primeros reportes registrados en las ciencias de la conservación, demuestra cómo el prerregistro puede ayudar a hacer más transparentes los diseños complejos de investigación, evitar la selección subjetiva de datos y reducir el sesgo de publicación.

Diffusion of treatment in social networks and mass drug administration.

Information, behaviors, and technologies spread when people interact. Understanding these interactions is critical for achieving the greatest diffusion of public interventions. Yet, little is known about the performance of starting points (seed nodes) for diffusion. We track routine mass drug administration-the large-scale distribution of deworming drugs-in Uganda. We observe friendship networks, socioeconomic factors, and treatment delivery outcomes for 16,357 individuals in 3491 households of 17 rural villages. Each village has two community medicine distributors (CMDs), who are the seed nodes and responsible for administering treatments. Here, we show that CMDs with tightly knit (clustered) friendship connections achieve the greatest reach and speed of treatment coverage. Importantly, we demonstrate that clustering predicts diffusion through social networks when spreading relies on contact with seed nodes while centrality is unrelated to diffusion. Clustering should be considered when selecting seed nodes for large-scale treatment campaigns.

Community-directed mass drug administration is undermined by status seeking in friendship networks and inadequate trust in health advice networks.

Over 1.9 billion individuals require preventive chemotherapy through mass drug administration (MDA). Community-directed MDA relies on volunteer community medicine distributors (CMDs) and their achievement of high coverage and compliance. Yet, it is unknown if village social networks influence effective MDA implementation by CMDs. In Mayuge District, Uganda, census-style surveys were conducted for 16,357 individuals from 3,491 households in 17 villages. Praziquantel, albendazole, and ivermectin were administered for one month in community-directed MDA to treat Schistosoma mansoni, hookworm, and lymphatic filariasis. Self-reported treatment outcomes, socioeconomic characteristics, friendship networks, and health advice networks were collected. We investigated systematically missed coverage and noncompliance. Coverage was defined as an eligible person being offered at least one drug by CMDs; compliance included ingesting at least one of the offered drugs. These outcomes were analyzed as a two-stage process using a Heckman selection model. To further assess if MDA through CMDs was working as intended, we examined the probability of accurate drug administration of 1) praziquantel, 2) both albendazole and ivermectin, and 3) all drugs. This analysis was conducted using bivariate Probit regression. Four indicators from each social network were examined: degree, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and the presence of a direct connection to CMDs. All models accounted for nested household and village standard errors. CMDs were more likely to offer medicines, and to accurately administer the drugs as trained by the national control programme, to individuals with high friendship degree (many connections) and high friendship closeness centrality (households that were only a short number of steps away from all other households in the network). Though high (88.59%), additional compliance was associated with directly trusting CMDs for health advice. Effective treatment provision requires addressing CMD biases towards influential, well-embedded individuals in friendship networks and utilizing health advice networks to increase village trust in CMDs.

From ignorance to evidence? The use of programme evaluation in conservation: Evidence from a Delphi survey of conservation experts.

Persistent gaps in the evidence base regarding the performance of conservation policies has put pressure on the conservation policy field to adopt 'best practice' programme evaluation methods. These are methods that account for the counterfactual and are able to attribute causality between a conservation policy and specific observable environmental and social impacts. Despite this pressure, use of such methods continues to be rare. This paper uses the Delphi technique to provide the first systematic assessment of the reasons behind the apparent hesitation of conservation practitioners to adopt rigorous policy impact evaluation methods. The Delphi study consisted of two online questionnaires conducted on conservation policy experts. The results presented confirm that the use of rigorous impact evaluation methods in conservation is still very limited but this, crucially, is not because conservationists are ignorant of these methods or their advantages. In fact, considerable effort is being made to develop and improve evidence standards but these efforts have largely been thwarted by large financial and time related constraints that mean even elementary evaluations are hard to achieve. The results from this Delphi study allow us to provide more realistic recommendations on how impact evaluation studies can be more widely embraced and implemented in conservation practice.

Profiling Nonrecipients of Mass Drug Administration for Schistosomiasis and Hookworm Infections: A Comprehensive Analysis of Praziquantel and Albendazole Coverage in Community-Directed Treatment in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Repeated mass drug administration (MDA) with preventive chemotherapies is the mainstay of morbidity control for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths, yet the World Health Organization recently reported that less than one-third of individuals who required preventive chemotherapies received treatment. METHODS: Coverage of community-directed treatment with praziquantel (PZQ) and albendazole (ALB) was analyzed in 17 villages of Mayuge District, Uganda. National drug registers, household questionnaires, and parasitological surveys were collected to track 935 individuals before and after MDA. Multilevel logistic regressions, including household and village effects, were specified with a comprehensive set of socioeconomic and parasitological variables. The factors predicting who did not receive PZQ and ALB from community medicine distributors were identified. RESULTS: Drug receipt was correlated among members within a household, and nonrecipients of PZQ or ALB were profiled by household-level socioeconomic factors. Individuals were less likely to receive either PZQ or ALB if they had a Muslim household head or low home quality, belonged to the minority tribe, or had settled for more years in their village. Untreated individuals were also more likely to belong to households that did not purify drinking water, had no home latrine, and had no members who were part of the village government. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate how to locate and target individuals who are not treated in MDA. Infection risk factors were not informative. In particular, age, gender, and occupation were unable to identify non-recipients, although World Health Organization guidelines rely on these factors. Individuals of low socioeconomic status, minority religions, and minority tribes can be targeted to expand MDA coverage.

Influence of Schistosoma mansoni and Hookworm Infection Intensities on Anaemia in Ugandan Villages.

BACKGROUND: The association of anaemia with intestinal schistosomiasis and hookworm infections are poorly explored in populations that are not limited to children or pregnant women. METHODS: We sampled 1,832 individuals aged 5-90 years from 30 communities in Mayuge District, Uganda. Demographic, village, and parasitological data were collected. Infection risk factors were compared in ordinal logistic regressions. Anaemia and infection intensities were analyzed in multilevel models, and population attributable fractions were estimated. FINDINGS: Household and village-level predictors of Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm were opposite in direction or significant for single infections. S. mansoni was found primarily in children, whereas hookworm was prevalent amongst the elderly. Anaemia was more prevalent in individuals with S. mansoni and increased by 2.86 fold (p-value<0.001) with heavy S. mansoni infection intensity. Individuals with heavy hookworm were 1.65 times (p-value = 0.008) more likely to have anaemia than uninfected participants. Amongst individuals with heavy S. mansoni infection intensity, 32.0% (p-value<0.001) of anaemia could be attributed to S. mansoni. For people with heavy hookworm infections, 23.7% (p-value = 0.002) of anaemia could be attributed to hookworm. A greater fraction of anaemia (24.9%, p-value = 0.002) was attributable to heavy hookworm infections in adults (excluding pregnant women) as opposed to heavy hookworm infections in school-aged children and pregnant women (20.2%, p-value = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Community-based surveys captured anaemia in children and adults affected by S. mansoni and hookworm infections. For areas endemic with schistosomiasis or hookworm infections, WHO guidelines should include adults for treatment in helminth control programmes.

Social network analysis predicts health behaviours and self-reported health in African villages.

The provision of healthcare in rural African communities is a highly complex and largely unsolved problem. Two main difficulties are the identification of individuals that are most likely affected by disease and the prediction of responses to health interventions. Social networks have been shown to capture health outcomes in a variety of contexts. Yet, it is an open question as to what extent social network analysis can identify and distinguish among households that are most likely to report poor health and those most likely to respond to positive behavioural influences. We use data from seven highly remote, post-conflict villages in Liberia and compare two prominent network measures: in-degree and betweenness. We define in-degree as the frequency in which members from one household are named by another household as a friends. Betweenness is defined as the proportion of shortest friendship paths between any two households in a network that traverses a particular household. We find that in-degree explains the number of ill family members, whereas betweenness explains engagement in preventative health. In-degree and betweenness independently explained self-reported health and behaviour, respectively. Further, we find that betweenness predicts susceptibility to, instead of influence over, good health behaviours. The results suggest that targeting households based on network measures rather than health status may be effective for promoting the uptake of health interventions in rural poor villages.

Bringing ecosystem services into economic decision-making: land use in the United Kingdom.

Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land-use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the United Kingdom, we show the significance of land-use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space, and wild-species diversity. We use spatially explicit models in conjunction with valuation methods to estimate comparable economic values for these services, taking account of climate change impacts. We show that, although decisions that focus solely on agriculture reduce overall ecosystem service values, highly significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning by incorporating all potential services and their values and that this approach also conserves wild-species diversity.

Exploring network theory for mass drug administration.

Network theory is a well-established discipline that uses mathematical graphs to describe biological, physical, and social systems. The topologies across empirical networks display strikingly similar organizational properties. In particular, the characteristics of these networks allow computational analysis to contribute data unattainable from examining individual components in isolation. However, the interdisciplinary and quantitative nature of network analysis has yet to be exploited by public health initiatives to distribute preventive chemotherapies. One notable application is the 2012 World Health Organization (WHO) Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) where there is a need to upscale distribution capacity and to target systematic noncompliers. An understanding of local networks for analysing the distributional properties of community-directed treatment may facilitate sustainable expansion of mass drug-administration (MDA) programs.