Clinical profiles of post-load glucose subgroups and their association with glycaemic traits over time: An IMI-DIRECT study.

AIM: To examine the hypothesis that, based on their glucose curves during a seven-point oral glucose tolerance test, people at elevated type 2 diabetes risk can be divided into subgroups with different clinical profiles at baseline and different degrees of subsequent glycaemic deterioration. METHODS: We included 2126 participants at elevated type 2 diabetes risk from the Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (IMI-DIRECT) study. Latent class trajectory analysis was used to identify subgroups from a seven-point oral glucose tolerance test at baseline and follow-up. Linear models quantified the associations between the subgroups with glycaemic traits at baseline and 18 months. RESULTS: At baseline, we identified four glucose curve subgroups, labelled in order of increasing peak levels as 1-4. Participants in Subgroups 2-4, were more likely to have higher insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment) and a lower Matsuda index, than those in Subgroup 1. Overall, participants in Subgroups 3 and 4, had higher glycaemic trait values, with the exception of the Matsuda and insulinogenic indices. At 18 months, change in homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance was higher in Subgroup 4 (ß = 0.36, 95% CI 0.13-0.58), Subgroup 3 (ß = 0.30; 95% CI 0.10-0.50) and Subgroup 2 (ß = 0.18; 95% CI 0.04-0.32), compared to Subgroup 1. The same was observed for C-peptide and insulin. Five subgroups were identified at follow-up, and the majority of participants remained in the same subgroup or progressed to higher peak subgroups after 18 months. CONCLUSIONS: Using data from a frequently sampled oral glucose tolerance test, glucose curve patterns associated with different clinical characteristics and different rates of subsequent glycaemic deterioration can be identified.

Incretin responses to oral glucose and mixed meal tests and changes in fasting glucose levels during 7 years of follow-up: The Hoorn Meal Study.

We conducted the first prospective observational study in which we examined the association between incretin responses to an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and mixed meal test (MMT) at baseline and changes in fasting glucose levels 7 years later, in individuals who were non-diabetic at baseline. We used data from the Hoorn Meal Study; a population-based cohort study among 121 subjects, aged 61.0±6.7y. GIP and GLP-1 responses were determined at baseline and expressed as total and incremental area under the curve (tAUC and iAUC). The association between incretin response at baseline and changes in fasting glucose levels was assessed using linear regression. The average change in glucose over 7 years was 0.43 ± 0.5 mmol/l. For GIP, no significant associations were observed with changes in fasting glucose levels. In contrast, participants within the middle and highest tertile of GLP-1 iAUC responses to OGTT had significantly smaller increases (actually decreases) in fasting glucose levels; -0.28 (95% confidence interval: -0.54;-0.01) mmol/l and -0.39 (-0.67;-0.10) mmol/l, respectively, compared to those in the lowest tertile. The same trend was observed for tAUC GLP-1 following OGTT (highest tertile: -0.32 (0.61;-0.04) mmol/l as compared to the lowest tertile). No significant associations were observed for GLP-1 responses following MMT. In conclusion, within our non-diabetic population-based cohort, a low GLP-1 response to OGTT was associated with a steeper increase in fasting glucose levels during 7 years of follow-up. This suggests that a reduced GLP-1 response precedes glucose deterioration and may play a role in the etiology of type 2 diabetes mellitus.