Health trends in Canada 1990-2019: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVE: Monitoring trends in key population health indicators is important for informing health policies. The aim of this study was to examine population health trends in Canada over the past 30 years in relation to other countries. METHODS: We used data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, life expectancy (LE), and child mortality for Canada and other countries between 1990 and 2019 provided by the Global Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: Life expectancy, age-standardized YLL, and age-standardized DALYs all improved in Canada between 1990 and 2019, although the rate of improvement has leveled off since 2011. The top five causes of all-age DALYs in Canada in 2019 were neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental disorders. The greatest increases in all-age DALYs since 1990 were observed for substance use, diabetes and chronic kidney disease, and sense organ disorders. Age-standardized DALYs declined for most conditions, except for substance use, diabetes and chronic kidney disease, and musculoskeletal disorders, which increased by 94.6%, 14.6%, and 7.3% respectively since 1990. Canada's world ranking for age-standardized DALYs declined from 9th place in 1990 to 24th in 2019. CONCLUSION: Canadians are healthier today than in 1990, but progress has slowed in Canada in recent years in comparison with other high-income countries. The growing burden of substance abuse, diabetes/chronic kidney disease, and musculoskeletal diseases will require continued action to improve population health.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: La surveillance des tendances des indicateurs clés de la santé de la population est importante pour éclairer les politiques de santé. Dans cette étude, nous avons examiné les tendances de la santé de la population au Canada au cours des 30 dernières années par rapport à d'autres pays. MéTHODES: Nous avons utilisé des données sur les années de vie ajustées en fonction de l'incapacité (DALY), les années de vie perdues (YLL), les années vécues avec un handicap, l'espérance de vie (LE) et la mortalité infantile pour le Canada et d'autres pays entre 1990 et 2019, fournies par l'Étude mondiale sur le fardeau de la maladie. RéSULTATS: L'espérance de vie, les YLL ajustées selon l'âge et les DALY ajustées selon l'âge ont tous connu une amélioration au Canada entre 1990 et 2019, bien que le taux d'amélioration se soit stabilisé depuis 2011. Les cinq principales causes des DALY pour tous les âges au Canada en 2019 étaient les néoplasmes, les maladies cardiovasculaires, les affections musculosquelettiques, les affections neurologiques et les troubles mentaux. Les plus fortes augmentations des DALY pour tous les âges depuis 1990 ont été observées pour l'usage de substances, le diabète et les maladies rénales chroniques, ainsi que les troubles des organes sensoriels. Les DALY ajustées selon l'âge ont diminué pour la plupart des conditions, à l'exception de l'usage de substances, du diabète et des maladies rénales chroniques, ainsi que des troubles musculosquelettiques, qui ont augmenté de 94,6 %, 14,6 % et 7,3 % respectivement depuis 1990. Le classement mondial du Canada pour les DALY ajustées selon l'âge est diminué de la 9ième place en 1990 à la 24ième place en 2019. CONCLUSION: Les Canadiens sont en meilleure santé aujourd'hui qu'en 1990, mais les progrès se sont ralentis ces dernières années par rapport à d'autres pays à revenu élevé. La croissance du fardeau lié à l'abus de substances, au diabète/maladies rénales chroniques et aux affections musculosquelettiques exigera des actions continues pour améliorer la santé de la population.

National burden of rheumatoid arthritis in Canada, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 - a GBD collaborator-led study.

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and trends from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) data, (2) to describe age and sex differences in RA and (3) to compare Canada's RA burden to that of other countries. METHODS: Disease burden indicators included prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). GBD estimated fatal and non-fatal outcomes using published literature, survey data and health insurance claims. Data were analysed by Bayesian meta-regression, cause of death ensemble model and other statistical methods. DALYs for Canada were compared with DALYs of countries with similarly high Socio-Demographic Index values. RESULTS: In Canada, the RA prevalence rate increased by 27% between 1990 and 2019, mortality rate decreased by 27%, YLL rate decreased by 30%, YLD increased by 27% and DALY rate increased by 13%, all age standardised. The decline in RA mortality and YLL rates was especially pronounced after 2002. The disease burden was higher in females for all indicators, and DALY rates were higher among older age groups, peaking at age 75-79 years. Prevalence and DALYs were higher in Canada compared with global rates. CONCLUSION: Trends in RA burden indicators over time and differences by age and sex have important implications for Canadian policy-makers, researchers and care providers. Early identification and management of RA in women may help reduce the overall burden of RA in Canada.

Effect of Immunosuppressive or Immunomodulatory Agents on Severe COVID-19 Outcomes: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: We estimated the association between immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory agent (IIA) exposure and severe COVID-19 outcomes in a population-based cohort study. METHODS: Participants were 18 years or older, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between February 6, 2020, and August 15, 2021, and were from administrative health data for the entire province of British Columbia, Canada. IIA use within 3 months prior to positive SARS-CoV-2 test included conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (antimalarials, methotrexate, leflunomide, sulfasalazine, individually), immunosuppressants (azathioprine, mycophenolate mofetil/mycophenolate sodium [MMF], cyclophosphamide, cyclosporine, individually and collectively), tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) biologics (adalimumab, certolizumab, etanercept, golimumab, infliximab, collectively), non-TNFi biologics or targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (tsDMARDs) (rituximab separately from abatacept, anakinra, secukinumab, tocilizumab, tofacitinib and ustekinumab collectively), and glucocorticoids. Severe COVID-19 outcomes were hospitalizations for COVID-19, ICU admissions, and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. Exposure score-overlap weighting was used to balance baseline characteristics of participants with IIA use compared with nonuse of that IIA. Logistic regression measured the association between IIA use and severe COVID-19 outcomes. RESULTS: From 147,301 participants, we identified 515 antimalarial, 573 methotrexate, 72 leflunomide, 180 sulfasalazine, 468 immunosuppressant, 378 TNFi biologic, 49 rituximab, 144 other non-TNFi biologic or tsDMARD, and 1348 glucocorticoid prescriptions. Risk of hospitalizations for COVID-19 was significantly greater for MMF (odds ratio [95% CI]): 2.82 [1.81-4.40], all immunosuppressants: 2.08 [1.51-2.87], and glucocorticoids: 1.63 [1.36-1.96], relative to nonuse. Similar outcomes were seen for ICU admission and MMF: 2.52 [1.34-4.74], immunosuppressants: 2.88 [1.73-4.78], and glucocorticoids: 1.86 [1.37-2.54]. Only glucocorticoids use was associated with a significant increase in 60-day mortality: 1.58 [1.21-2.06]. No other IIAs displayed statistically significant associations with severe COVID-19 outcomes. CONCLUSION: Current use of MMF and glucocorticoids were associated with an increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes compared with nonuse. These results emphasize the variety of circumstances of patients taking IIAs.

The burden of ischemic heart disease and the epidemiologic transition in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: 1990-2019.

It has been estimated that in the next decade, IHD prevalence, DALYs and deaths will increase more significantly in EMR than in any other region of the world. This study aims to provide a comprehensive description of the trends in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) across the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2019. Data on IHD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, DALYs attributable to risk factors, healthcare access and quality index (HAQ), and universal health coverage (UHC) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for EMR countries. The data were stratified based on the social demographic index (SDI). Information on cardiac rehabilitation was obtained from publications by the International Council of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (ICCPR), and additional country-specific data were obtained through advanced search methods. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, applying the estimated age structure of the global population from 2019. Uncertainty intervals were calculated through 1000 iterations, and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles were derived from these calculations. The age-standardized prevalence of IHD in the EMR increased from 5.0% to 5.5% between 1990 and 2019, while it decreased at the global level. In the EMR, the age-standardized rates of IHD mortality and DALYs decreased by 11.4% and 15.4%, respectively, during the study period, although both rates remained higher than the global rates. The burden of IHD was found to be higher in males compared to females. Bahrain exhibited the highest decrease in age-standardized prevalence (-3.7%), mortality (-65.0%), and DALYs (-69.1%) rates among the EMR countries. Conversely, Oman experienced the highest increase in prevalence (14.5%), while Pakistan had the greatest increase in mortality (30.0%) and DALYs (32.0%) rates. The top three risk factors contributing to IHD DALYs in the EMR in 2019 were high systolic blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and particulate matter pollution. The trend analysis over the 29-year period (1990-2019) revealed that high fasting plasma glucose (64.0%) and high body mass index (23.4%) exhibited increasing trends as attributed risk factors for IHD DALYs in the EMR. Our findings indicate an increasing trend in the prevalence of IHD and a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the EMR. These results emphasize the need for well-planned prevention and treatment strategies to address the risk factors associated with IHD. It is crucial for the countries in this region to prioritize the development and implementation of programs focused on health promotion, education, prevention, and medical care.

Trends in the burden and determinants of hypertensive heart disease in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Hypertensive heart disease (HHD), one of the end-organ damage consequences of hypertension, is an important public health issue worldwide. Data on the HHD burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) are scarce. We aimed to investigate the burden of HHD in the EMR, its member countries, and globally from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to report the HHD age-standardised prevalence, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and mortality, as well as HHD risk factors attribution percent with their 95% uncertainty interval (UI). Global data are reported alongside EMR data, and its 22 respective countries. We compared the burden of HHD by socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, age groups, and countries. Findings: The age-standardised prevalence rate (per 100,000 population) of HHD was higher in the EMR (281.7; 95% UI: 204.5-383.4) in 2019, compared with the global prevalence (233.8; 95% UI: 170.5-312.9). The EMR age-standardised DALYs (per 100,000 population) for HHD in 2019 was 561.9 (361.0-704.1), compared with 268.2 (204.6-298.1) at the global level. There was an increase in HHD prevalence, reduction in mortality, and DALYs between 1990 and 2019 (4.01%, -7.6%, and -6.5%, respectively) in EMR. Among EMR countries, the highest versus lowest rates of age-standardised prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in 2019 [estimate (95% UI)] were in Jordan [561.62 (417.9-747.6)] versus Saudi Arabia [94.9 (69.5-129.0)]; Afghanistan [74.5 (23.7-112.3)] versus Saudi Arabia [4.3 (3.3-5.9)]; and Afghanistan [1374.1 (467.2-2020.7)] versus Qatar [87.11 (64.40-114.29)], respectively. Interpretation: HHD remains a significant problem in the EMR, with a higher burden than global levels. Serious efforts toward high-quality management and prevention are strongly recommended. Based on this study, our recommendation for the EMR is to adopt effective preventive strategies. For example, promoting healthy dietary patterns and prompt screening for undiagnosed HTN in public places, promoting regular blood pressure measurements at home, and creating community awareness about early detection of HTN. Funding: None.

Measuring skill-based health literacy in chronic airway disease patients: the development and psychometric evaluation of the Vancouver airways health literacy tool (VAHLT).

PURPOSE: This article describes the development of the Vancouver airways health literacy tool (VAHLT), a novel measure of skill-based health literacy specific to chronic airway diseases (CADs). Across several phases, psychometric characteristics of the VAHLT were examined and used to guide its development. METHODS: An initial pool of 46 items was developed using input from patients, clinicians, researchers, and policy-makers. An initial patient sample (N = 532) was evaluated and used to inform item revisions. A revised 44-item pool was then evaluated using a second sample, the results of which aided in the selection of a final set of 30 items. The finalized 30-item VAHLT was then psychometrically evaluated using the second sample (N = 318). An item response theory approach was utilized to evaluate the VAHLT by assessing model fit, item parameter estimates, test and item information curves, and item characteristic curves. Reliability was assessed using ordinal coefficient alpha. We additionally assessed differential item functioning between asthma and COPD diagnoses. RESULTS: The VAHLT demonstrated a unidimensional structure and reasonably discriminated patients in the lower range of health literacy estimates. The tool demonstrated strong reliability (α = .920). Two of the 30 items were found to exhibit non-negligible differential item functioning. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents compelling evidence of validity in several areas for the VAHLT, including content and structural validity. Further external validation studies are needed and forthcoming. Overall, this work represents a strong first step towards a novel, skill-based, and disease-specific measure of CAD-related health literacy.

Patient-reported mental health and well-being trajectories in oncology patients during radiation therapy: an exploratory retrospective cohort analysis using the Ontario Cancer Registry.

PURPOSE: Mental health and well-being trajectories are not expected to be homogeneous in diverse clinical populations. This exploratory study aims to identify subgroups of patients with cancer receiving radiation therapy who have different mental health and well-being trajectories, and examine which socio-demographic, physical symptoms, and clinical variables are associated with such trajectories. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of radiation therapy patients diagnosed with cancer in 2017 was conducted using data from the Ontario Cancer Registry (Canada) and linked with administrative health data. Mental health and well-being were measured using items from the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-revised questionnaire. Patients completed up to 6 repeated measurements. We used latent class growth mixture models to identify heterogeneous mental health trajectories of anxiety, depression, and well-being. Bivariate multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to explore variables associated with the latent classes (subgroups). RESULTS: The cohort (N = 3416) with a mean age of 64.5 years consisted of 51.7% females. Respiratory cancer was the most common diagnosis (30.4%) with moderate to severe comorbidity burden. Four latent classes with distinct anxiety, depression, and well-being trajectories were identified. Decreasing mental health and well-being trajectories are associated with being female; living in neighborhoods with lower income, greater population density, and higher proportion of foreign-born individuals; and having higher comorbidity burden. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the importance of considering social determinants of mental health and well-being, in addition to symptoms and clinical variables, when providing care for patients undergoing radiation therapy.

Risk of severe infections after the introduction of biologic DMARDs in people with newly diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based interrupted time-series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of the introduction of biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs) on severe infections among people newly diagnosed with RA compared with non-RA individuals. METHODS: In this population-based retrospective cohort study using administrative data (from 1990-2015) for British Columbia, Canada, all incident RA patients diagnosed between 1995 and 2007 were identified. General population controls with no inflammatory arthritis were matched to RA patients based on age and gender, and were assigned the diagnosis date (i.e. index date) of the RA patients they were matched with. RA/controls were then divided into quarterly cohorts according to their index dates. The outcome of interest was all severe infections necessitating hospitalization or occurring during hospitalization after the index date. We calculated 8-year severe infection rates for each cohort and conducted interrupted time-series analyses to compare severe infection trends in RA/controls with index date during pre-bDMARDs (1995-2001) and post-bDMARDs (2003-2007) periods. RESULTS: A total of 60 226 and 588 499 incident RA/controls were identified. We identified 14 245 severe infections in RA, and 79 819 severe infections in controls. The 8-year severe infection rates decreased among RA/controls with increasing calendar year of index date in the pre-bDMARDs period, but increased over time only among RA, not controls, with index date in the post-bDMARDs period. The adjusted difference between the pre- and post-bDMARDs secular trends in 8-year severe infection rates was 1.85 (P = 0.001) in RA and 0.12 (P = 0.29) in non-RA. CONCLUSION: RA onset after bDMARDs introduction was associated with an elevated severe infection risk in RA patients compared with matched non-RA individuals.

Changes in the burden and underlying causes of heart failure in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: The burden of heart failure (HF) is high globally, but information on its burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is limited. This study provides a systematic analysis of the burden and underlying causes of HF in the EMR, including at the country level, between 1990 and 2019. Methods: We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data for estimates of prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and underlying causes of HF in the EMR. Age-standardised prevalence, YLDs, and underlying causes of HF were compared by 5-year age groups (considering 15 years old and more), sex (male and female), and countries. Findings: In contrast with the decreasing trend of HF burden globally, EMR showed an increasing trend. Globally, the HF age-standardised prevalence and YLDs decreased by 7.06% (95% UI: -7.22%, -6.9%) and 6.82% (95% UI: -6.98%, -6.66%) respectively, from 1990 to 2019. The HF age-standardised prevalence and YLDs in the EMR in 2019 were 706.43 (95% UI: 558.22-887.87) and 63.46 (95% UI: 39.82-92.59) per 100,000 persons, representing an increase of 8.07% (95% UI: 7.9%, 8.24%) and 8.79% (95% UI: 8.61%, 8.97%) from 1990, respectively. Amongst EMR countries, the age-standardised prevalence and YLDs were highest in Kuwait, while Pakistan consistently had the lowest HF burden. The dramatic increase of the age-standardised prevalence and YLDs were seen in Oman (28.79%; 95% UI: 28.51%, 29.07% and 29.56%; 95% UI: 29.28%, 29.84%), while Bahrain witnessed a reduction over the period shown (-9.66%; 95% UI: -9.84%, -9.48% and-9.14%; 95% UI: -9.32%, -8.96%). There were significant country-specific differences in trends of HF burden from 1990 to 2019. Males had relatively higher rates than females in all age groups. Among all causes of HF in 2019, ischemic heart disease accounted for the highest age-standardised prevalence and YLDs, followed by hypertensive heart disease. Interpretation: The burden of HF in the EMR was higher than the global, with increasing age-standardised prevalence and YLDs in countries of the region. A more comprehensive approach is needed to prevent underlying causes and improve medical care to control the burden of HF in the region. Funding: None.

Evaluation of a New Performance-Based Health Literacy Measurement Tool for Individuals With Chronic Airways Disease.

BACKGROUND: Low health literacy is a global challenge. Health literacy is positively correlated with chronic airways disease desirable outcomes. Despite the importance of health literacy in disease management, current health literacy measurement tools are suboptimal. As part of a multi-stage project to develop a performance-based, disease-specific Vancouver Airways Health Literacy Tool (VAHLT) for individuals with chronic airways disease, this study assessed the relationships between the VAHLT scores and characteristics of patients with chronic airways disease. The primary aim of the study was to provide preliminary evidence of construct validity of the VAHLT. METHODS: A cross-sectional study design was applied. Study subjects were recruited from 6 specialty care clinics to complete the VAHLT measurement tool. Demographic and clinical data, including quality of life and disease control, were collected via validated questionnaires. The study subjects also completed a spirometry test. Inferential analysis was conducted by using mean difference testing and correlational methods. RESULTS: A total of 320 subjects were recruited, and, after imputing missing data, 315 were ultimately analyzed. The subjects were predominantly women (61%), white (83%), had a post-high-school education (74%), and a mean ± SD age of 65.2 ± 13.2 y. Age was significantly negatively correlated with the VAHLT scores (P = .004); the subjects with a post-high school education had significantly higher VAHLT scores than those with a high school education or less (P < .001). No significant sex or ethnicity related differences in VAHLT scores were observed. For clinical outcomes, no significant differences were found between the VAHLT scores and disease severity or measures of quality of life and asthma control. CONCLUSIONS: We report a chronic airways disease-specific health literacy measurement tool developed with the involvement of patients and professionals. Age and education were highly correlated with health literacy, which emphasizes the importance of addressing these factors in health literacy interventions among patients with chronic airways disease.

Magnetic resonance imaging predictors (cartilage, osteophytes and meniscus) of prevalent and 3-year incident medial and lateral tibiofemoral knee joint tenderness and patellofemoral grind.

OBJECTIVE: To identify magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) predictors (cartilage [C], osteophytes [O] and meniscus [M] scores) of prevalent and 3-year incident medial tibiofemoral (MTF) and lateral tibiofemoral (LTF) knee joint tenderness and patellofemoral (PF) grind.  METHODS: Population-based knee pain cohort aged 40-79 was assessed at baseline (N = 255), 3- and 7-year follow-up (N = 108 × 2 = 216). COM scores were measured at 6/8/6 subregions respectively. Age-sex-BMI adjusted logistic models predicted prevalence versus relevant COM predictors (medial, lateral or patellar / trochlear groove scores). Fully adjusted models also included all relevant COM predictors. Binary generalized estimating equations models predicting 3-year incidence were also adjusted for individual follow-up time between cycles. RESULTS: Significant predictors of prevalent MTF tenderness: medial femoral cartilage (fully adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11, 3.05), female (aOR = 3.05; 1.67, 5.58), BMI (aOR = 1.53 per 5 units BMI; 1.10, 2.11). Predictors of prevalent LTF tenderness: female (aOR = 2.18; 1.22, 3.90). There were no predictors of prevalent PF grind in the fully adjusted model. However, medial patellar osteophytes was predictive in the age-sex-BMI adjusted model. There were no predictors of 3-year incident MTF tenderness. Predictors of 3-year incident LTF tenderness: female (aOR = 3.83; 1.25, 11.77). Predictors of 3-year incident PF grind: lateral patellar osteophytes (aOR = 4.82; 1.69, 13.77). In the age-sex-BMI adjusted model, patellar cartilage was also a predictor. CONCLUSION: We explored potential MRI predictors of prevalent and 3-year incident MTF/LTF knee joint tenderness and PF grind. These findings could guide preemptive strategies aimed at reducing these symptoms in the present and future (3-year incidence).

Measuring the burden of comorbidity for ischaemic heart disease and four common non-communicable diseases in Iran, 1990-2017: a modelling study based on global burden of diseases data.

OBJECTIVE: This modelling study aimed to estimate the comorbidity burden for four common non-communicable diseases with ischaemic heart diseases (IHD) in Iran during a period of 28 years. DESIGN: Analysis of the burden of comorbidity with IHD based on data included prevalence rates and the disability weight (DW) average for calculating years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Iran population based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. SETTING: Population-based available data in GBD 2017 study of Iran population. PARTICIPANT: The source of data was the GBD 2017 Study. We evaluated IHD, major depressive disorder (MDD), diabetes mellitus (DM), ischaemic stroke (IS), and osteoarthritis (OA) age-standardised prevalence rates and their DW. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A new formula that modified the GBD calculator was used to measure the comorbidity YLDs. In the new formula, some multipliers were considered, measuring the departure from independence. RESULT: The contribution of total comorbidity for each combination of IHD with DM, MDD, IS and OA was 2.5%, 2.0%, 1.6% and 2.9%, respectively. The highest YLD rates were observed for IHD_MDD, 16.5 in 1990 and 17.0 in 2017. This was followed by IHD_DM, from 11.5 to 16.9 per 100 000. The YLD rates for IHD_OA changed slightly (6.5-6.7) per 100 000, whereas there was a gradual reduction in the trends of IHD-IS, from 4.0-4.5 per 100 000. CONCLUSION: Of the four comorbidities studied, the highest burden was due to the coexistence of MDD with IHD. Our results highlight the importance of addressing the burden of comorbidities when studying the burden of IHD or any other non-communicable disease.

Reducing the burden of low back pain: results from a new microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) causes the highest morbidity burden globally. The purpose of the present study was to project and compare the impact of three strategies for reducing the population health burden of LBP: weight loss, ergonomic interventions, and an exercise program. METHODS: We have developed a microsimulation model of LBP in Canada using a new modeling platform called SimYouLate. The initial population was derived from Cycle 1 (2001) of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). We modeled an open population 20 years of age and older. Key variables included age, sex, education, body mass index (BMI), type of work, having back problems, pain level in persons with back problems, and exercise participation. The effects of interventions on the risk of LBP were obtained from the CCHS for the effect of BMI, the Global Burden of Disease Study for occupational risks, and a published meta-analysis for the effect of exercise. All interventions lasted from 2021 to 2040. The population health impact of the interventions was calculated as a difference in years lived with disability (YLDs) between the base-case scenario and each intervention scenario, and expressed as YLDs averted per intervention unit or a proportion (%) of total LBP-related YLDs. RESULTS: In the base-case scenario, LBP in 2020 was responsible for 424,900 YLDs in Canada and the amount increased to 460,312 YLDs in 2040. The effects of the interventions were as follows: 27,993 (95% CI 23,373, 32,614) YLDs averted over 20 years per 0.1 unit change in log-transformed BMI (9.5% change in BMI) among individuals who were overweight and those with obesity, 19,416 (16,275, 22,557) YLDs per 1% reduction in the proportion of workers exposed to occupational risks, and 26,058 (22,455, 29,661) YLDs averted per 1% increase in the proportion of eligible patients with back problems participating in an exercise program. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides new data on the relationship between three types of interventions and the resultant reductions in LBP burden in Canada. According to our model, each of the interventions studied could potentially result in a substantial reduction in LBP-related disability.

The Impact of 51 Risk Factors on Life Expectancy in Canada: Findings from a New Risk Prediction Model Based on Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

The aims of this study were (1) to develop a comprehensive risk-of-death and life expectancy (LE) model and (2) to provide data on the effects of multiple risk factors on LE. We used data for Canada from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. To create period life tables for males and females, we obtained age/sex-specific deaths rates for 270 diseases, population distributions for 51 risk factors, and relative risk functions for all disease-exposure pairs. We computed LE gains from eliminating each factor, LE values for different levels of exposure to each factor, and LE gains from simultaneous reductions in multiple risk factors at various ages. If all risk factors were eliminated, LE in Canada would increase by 6.26 years for males and 5.05 for females. The greatest benefit would come from eliminating smoking in males (2.45 years) and high blood pressure in females (1.42 years). For most risk factors, their dose-response relationships with LE were non-linear and depended on the presence of other factors. In individuals with high levels of risk, eliminating or reducing exposure to multiple factors could improve LE by several years, even at a relatively advanced age.

Estimating Disease Prevalence in Administrative Data.

PURPOSE: Disease prevalence estimates from population-based administrative databases are often biased due to measurement (misclassification) errors. The purpose of this article is to review the methodology for estimating disease prevalence in administrative data, with a focus on bias correction. SOURCE: Several approaches to bias correction in administrative data were reviewed and application of these methods was demonstrated using an example from the literature: physician claims and hospitalization data were employed to estimate diabetes prevalence in Ontario, Canada. FINDINGS: Misclassification bias in prevalence estimates from administrative data can be reduced by developing and selecting an optimal algorithm for case identification, applying a bias correction formula, or using statistical modelling. An algorithm for which sensitivity equals positive predictive value provides an unbiased estimate of prevalence. Bias reduction methods generally require information about the measurement properties of the algorithm, such as sensitivity, specificity, or predictive value. These properties depend on disease type, prevalence, algorithm definition (including the observation window), and may vary by population and time. Prevalence estimates can be improved by applying multivariable disease prediction models. CONCLUSION: Frequency of a positive case identification algorithm in administrative data is generally not equivalent to disease prevalence. Although prevalence estimates can be corrected for bias using known measurement properties of the algorithm, these properties may be difficult to estimate accurately; therefore, disease prevalence estimates based on administrative data must be treated with caution.

Distinguishing symptom patterns in adults newly diagnosed with cancer: a latent class analysis.

CONTEXT: Socio-demographic differences, including place of residence, socio-economic status, ethnicity, and gender, have been associated with various inequities in cancer care outcomes. OBJECTIVES: The aims were to distinguish subgroups of patients with different symptom patterns at the time of the initial oncology visit and determine which clinical and socio-demographic variables are associated the different symptom patterns. METHOD: Responses to the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale- revised and clinical and socio-demographic variables were obtained via the Ontario Cancer Registry and linked health data files. Latent class analyses were conducted to identify and compare the subgroups. RESULTS: The cohort (n = 216,110) with a mean age of 64.5 years consisted of 54.1% women. The analyses identified six latent classes (proportions ranging from 0.09 to 0.31) with distinct symptom patterns, including: 1) many severe symptoms, 2) many less severe symptoms, 3) predominantly mild symptoms, 4) severe psychosocial symptoms, 5) severe somatic symptoms, 6) few symptoms. The subgroups were associated not only with clinical differences (diagnoses and functional status), but also with various socio-demographic (age, sex) and community characteristics (neighborhood income, proportion of foreign born, rurality). CONCLUSION: The results indicated that there were substantial differences in symptom patterns at the time of the initial oncology visit, which were associated with both clinical diagnoses and socio-demographic differences. These results point to the importance of taking the social situation of patients into account, and not just diagnosis, to better understand differences in symptom patterns of people living with cancer.

Establishing content validity of LIMB-Q Kids: a new patient-reported outcome measure for lower limb deformities.

PURPOSE: To establish the content validity of LIMB-Q Kids, a new patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) for children with lower limb deformities. This study focused on three key components of content validity, i.e., comprehension, comprehensiveness, and relevance. METHODS: Cognitive debriefing interviews (CDIs) with children with lower limb deformities were performed, and expert input from parents and clinicians directly involved in the care of children with lower limb deformities was obtained. CDIs were conducted with children from sites in Australia, Canada, and the USA. All interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Analyses were conducted using the reparative approach, which involved close examination of the transcribed interviews and summarising edits after each interview. RESULTS: Forty patients, experts, and parents reviewed LIMB-Q Kids and provided feedback. At the start, LIMB-Q Kids had 10 scales and 124 total items. Five rounds of input was obtained from children, parents, and experts. Overall, 37 new items were added. Thirty-three of the new items were included to measure symptoms experienced in different parts of the legs. Final version of LIMB-Q Kids had 11 scales and 159 items. CONCLUSION: This study established content validity of the LIMB-Q Kids, a new PROM for children with lower limb deformities. An international field-test study is underway. Translation and cultural adaptation are underway for sites where English is not the first language. Scoring algorithms will be developed, following which the scale could be used to inform clinical practice and research.

How to Improve Interpretability of Patient-Reported Outcome Measures for Clinical Use: A Perspective on Measuring Abilities and Feelings.

Two general classes of concepts measured by patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are abilities and feelings. Over the past several decades, there has been a significant progress in measuring both. Nevertheless, current multi-item scales are subject to criticism related to scale length, score dimensionality, interpretability, cultural bias, and insufficient detail in measuring specific domains. To address some of these issues, the author offers an alternative perspective on how questions about abilities and feelings could be formulated. Abilities can be defined in terms of a relationship between the level of performance and the associated perception of difficulty, and represented graphically by an ability curve. For feelings, it may be useful to measure frequency and intensity jointly to determine the proportion of time in each level of intensity. The resultant frequency × intensity matrix can be presented as a bar graph. Empirical data to support the feasibility and validity of these approaches to PROM design are provided, potential advantages and limitations are discussed, and some future research avenues are suggested.

Association of tramadol with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular diseases, venous thromboembolism, and hip fractures among patients with osteoarthritis: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The use of tramadol among osteoarthritis (OA) patients has been increasing rapidly around the world, but population-based studies on its safety profile among OA patients are scarce. We sought to determine if tramadol use in OA patients is associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), venous thromboembolism (VTE), and hip fractures compared with commonly prescribed nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or codeine. METHODS: Using administrative health datasets from British Columbia, Canada, we conducted a sequential propensity score-matched cohort study among all OA patients between 2005 and 2013. The tramadol cohort (i.e., tramadol initiation) was matched with four comparator cohorts (i.e., initiation of naproxen, diclofenac, cyclooxygenase-2 [Cox-2] inhibitors, or codeine). Outcomes are all-cause mortality, first-ever CVD, VTE, and hip fractures within the year after the treatment initiation. Patients were followed until they either experienced an event, left the province, or the 1-year follow-up period ended, whichever occurred first. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios after adjusting for competing risk of death. RESULTS: Overall, 100,358 OA patients were included (mean age: 68 years, 63% females). All-cause mortality was higher for tramadol compared to NSAIDs with rate differences (RDs/1000 person-years, 95% CI) ranging from 3.3 (0.0-6.7) to 8.1 (4.9-11.4) and hazard ratios (HRs, 95% CI) ranging from 1.2 (1.0-1.4) to 1.5 (1.3-1.8). For CVD, no differences were observed between tramadol and NSAIDs. Tramadol had a higher risk of VTE compared to diclofenac, with RD/1000 person-years (95% CI) of 2.2 (0.7-3.7) and HR (95% CI) of 1.7 (1.3-2.2). Tramadol also had a higher risk of hip fractures compared to diclofenac and Cox-2 inhibitors with RDs/1000 person-years (95% CI) of 1.9 (0.4-3.4) and 1.7 (0.2-3.3), respectively, and HRs (95% CI) of 1.6 (1.2-2.0) and 1.4 (1.1-1.9), respectively. No differences were observed between tramadol and NSAIDs for all events. CONCLUSIONS: OA patients initiating tramadol have an increased risk of mortality, VTE, and hip fractures within 1 year compared with commonly prescribed NSAIDs, but not with codeine.